2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 11:17PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Manipulation.
That what is moving property market at the moment.
Not money.

OK so all I need is to manipulate and I can get a property?? can you quantify what your trying to say? I thought property market was a factor of supply vs demand and access to credit and a whole shed load of other factors that are individual to both a buyer and a seller

Cyrus · 05-03-2021 11:22PM

schmittel wrote: »

They originally planned to sell the units individually to owner occupiers and investors.

But they decided they would be better off entering into a 25 year inflation linked lease for the entire to the taxpayer.

Once this was in place they sold the entire to the fund for over 500k an apartment.

It was the taxpayer who added value here.

I’d imagine the chain events was a bit different but I suppose we end up in the same place.

You’d have to wonder how dcc can see this as value for money , it’s incredibly short sighted .

Timing belt · 05-03-2021 11:22PM

schmittel wrote: »

One for PropQueries scrapbook: Aberdeen Standard fund pays €20m for Dublin apartment portfolio

Nice work if you can get it. I am presuming this inflation linked lease has not allowed for falling market rents.

They must be very nice apartments. One would have thought being bought as a job lot would work out cheaper per apartment, but 500k each seems high for the area.

Interestingly it seems Red Rocks plan at the outset was not long term social housing tenants. Their website describes the development whilst under construction:

If the market is on fire with prices rising why are developers not selling off their top end ultra modern and high spec properties individually to the highest bidders in the open market?

Are they pulling on the green jersey and doing their bit to ease homelessness?! Or is that they know there is more money to be made by fleecing the gullible taxpayer?

That works out at 512,820/(25*12)= 1,709 a month for rent which would be top end one bed apartments or cheap 2 bed apartments to rent in that area from looking at asking prices on daft.

Do we know what the breakdown of the 39 units is (e.g. 20 2 bed, 10 1 bed, 9 3 bed)

Villa05 · 05-03-2021 11:23PM

schmittel wrote:

If the market is on fire with prices rising why are developers not selling off their top end ultra modern and high spec properties individually to the highest bidders in the open market?

This thread should come with a blood pressure health warning

No wonder SF are polling so high

Hubertj · 05-03-2021 11:24PM

schmittel wrote: »

Units finished and all but two occupied. You're currently paying the rent on all of them.

.

I’d much prefer my hard earned money to go to a pension fund than provision of public services.

05-03-2021 11:25PM

fliball123 wrote: »

OK so all I need is to manipulate and I can get a property?? can you quantify what your trying to say? I thought property market was a factor of supply vs demand and access to credit and a whole shed load of other factors that are individual to both a buyer and a seller

What price will we have if ECB will bring rate up and people which lost job will have to pay higher mortgage at same time when they has no job ?
ECB will have to bring rates up to control inflation.
If people will stop pay mortgages the government will have safe the banks same as in 2008.
And what we will do if builders will supply houses for 300K but demand due with high unemployment and high ECB rates will be only for 150K houses ?
We have to many unknown and none known.

hometruths · 05-03-2021 11:28PM

Cyrus wrote: »

I’d imagine the chain events was a bit different but I suppose we end up in the same place.

You’d have to wonder how dcc can see this as value for money , it’s incredibly short sighted .

Whatever way the chain of events played out, it's good business by RedRock. You can't blame them for not looking a gift horse in the mouth.

I think the problem is DCC don't care about value for money. Once people cop on about the long term consequences there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth, but by then the damage will be done.

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 11:33PM

Deleted User wrote: »

What price will we have if ECB will bring rate up and people which lost job will have to pay higher mortgage at same time when they has no job ?
ECB will have to bring rates up to control inflation.
If people will stop pay mortgages the government will have safe the banks same as in 2008.
And what we will do if builders will supply houses for 300K but demand due with high unemployment and high ECB rates will be only for 150K houses ?
We have to many unknown and none known.

OK so another doomsdayer..Look at what happened in 08 ..Did the family home get taken away..NO so with our country even more left leaning now than it was in 08 this will be the case if what you predict happens. So if people stop paying their mortgage they will be allowed stay in their home this is now a given. Lots of ifs and buts in your scenario but supply will not be added to by people not paying their mortgage on the family home. Now buy to lets will but these are being hoovered up by REITS and Vulture funds and the number of small landlords are being reduced year on year and these entities have the financial clout to currently let properties lie vacant so they do not lose their rental yield. So they have the financial clout to weather a big storm. But your right too much unknown and knowns. I wouldn't advise anyone to buy or sell or not to buy or sell. Everyone will have a unique set of issues and circumstances that will trump anything else anyone says on here.

hometruths · 05-03-2021 11:33PM

Timing belt wrote: »

That works out at 512,820/(25*12)= 1,709 a month for rent which would be top end one bed apartments or cheap 2 bed apartments to rent in that area from looking at asking prices on daft.

Do we know what the breakdown of the 39 units is (e.g. 20 2 bed, 10 1 bed, 9 3 bed)

The website says it was originally supposed to be "17 no. 1 bed apartments, 18 no. 2-bed apartments and 1 spectacular 3 bed penthouse" but that's three short, so they must have reconfigured somewhat for DCCs benefit.

I suspect they lost the "generous Residents Lounge and a separate stand-alone fully glazed Hot Desk area in the courtyard" to find space for three more units.

Hubertj · 05-03-2021 11:35PM

schmittel wrote: »

Whatever way the chain of events played out, it's good business by RedRock. You can't blame them for not looking a gift horse in the mouth.

I think the problem is DCC don't care about value for money. Once people cop on about the long term consequences there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth, but by then the damage will be done.

Yep. When you have public servants spending tax payer money with no accountability what do you expect? Instead of accountability you get an automatic pay rise irrespective of how you perform in your job. Infuriating. What I find interesting is housing is a big issue and was in the election. However, with the balls government have made of things over last few months SF support has plateaued. Even if they get into government are they going to take on the task of reforming public services? They can’t get rid of people who aren’t performing (and I mean dismiss them, not disappear them). If you have a policy and people can’t execute it Because they aren’t able to (I mean execute a policy not someone) what can you do?

thefridge2006 · 05-03-2021 11:36PM

fliball123 wrote: »

To go where? Where in the world will a country not be in some kind of debt for Covid??? Frying pan and fire. See how quickly they go when they realise that covid was not just an Irish phenomenon. If they leave they will not have the pillow of a very generous unemployment benefit and a guarantee the state will house them. Anyway good luck to them. Just on the anecdotal side I have 6 friends in Oz all looking to come back to Ireland and will when things have opened up.. For the life of me I dont know why.

One going to Canada, two to New Zealand and one Germany. They're just fed up with how this place is run i think, a lot of broken cogs in the wheel and they're paying heavily for incompetence

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 11:36PM

thefridge2006 wrote: »

One going to Canada, two to New Zealand and one Germany. They're just fed up with how this place is run i think, a lot of broken cogs in the wheel and they're paying heavily for incompetence

Yeah cant argue with them there

Timing belt · 05-03-2021 11:39PM

schmittel wrote: »

The website says it was originally supposed to be "17 no. 1 bed apartments, 18 no. 2-bed apartments and 1 spectacular 3 bed penthouse" but that's three short, so they must have reconfigured somewhat for DCCs benefit.

I suspect they lost the "generous Residents Lounge and a separate stand-alone fully glazed Hot Desk area in the courtyard" to find space for three more units.

It is crazy.... Even buying the properties at that price would be better value.

I just had a look to see what parties are controlling DCC and it would appear none so they are all as bad as each other for approving this mess.

FF 11
Green 9
FG 9
SF 8
Labour 8
social democrats 5
solidarity 2
IFC 1
Independent 10
63

hometruths · 05-03-2021 11:44PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Yep. When you have public servants spending tax payer money with no accountability what do you expect? Instead of accountability you get an automatic pay rise irrespective of how you perform in your job.

I once had a legal issue with a council, and given the strength of the case, I considered pursuing a judicial review thinking they would back down as soon as they were notified of proceedings. My legal advice was that I was 100% in the right, but not to proceed with the case because the council would defend it to the hilt running up costs left right and centre hoping to bleed me out. This apparently is standard operating procedure because they don't give a damn about the cost!

Infuriating. What I find interesting is housing is a big issue and was in the election. However, with the balls government have made of things over last few months SF support has plateaued. Even if they get into government are they going to take on the task of reforming public services? They can’t get rid of people who aren’t performing (and I mean dismiss them, not disappear them). If you have a policy and people can’t execute it Because they aren’t able to (I mean execute a policy not someone) what can you do?

:D:D

05-03-2021 11:48PM

fliball123 wrote: »

OK so another doomsdayer..Look at what happened in 08 ..Did the family home get taken away..NO so with our country even more left leaning now than it was in 08 this will be the case if what you predict happens. So if people stop paying their mortgage they will be allowed stay in their home this is now a given. Lots of ifs and buts in your scenario but supply will not be added to by people not paying their mortgage on the family home. Now buy to lets will but these are being hoovered up by REITS and Vulture funds and the number of small landlords are being reduced year on year and these entities have the financial clout to currently let properties lie vacant so they do not lose their rental yield. So they have the financial clout to weather a big storm. But your right too much unknown and knowns. I wouldn't advise anyone to buy or sell or not to buy or sell. Everyone will have a unique set of issues and circumstances that will trump anything else anyone says on here.

From my side ( as potential buyer trying to buy good house at good price and trying save money for it )
I prefer stay with cash at the moment because houses prices if will not down they will definitely not up.
For those who has no cash and has job the best way apply for mortgage and grab chance before there will be no job and bank will not give mortgage
For guys from foreign countries if no job and no savings but only high rent then better go home staying on Ireland social welfare for 1 year at home.
For those who selling houses better sell them now because no supply and good demand.
For those who found what he was looking for and not gonna sell then buy it now because no matter when you buy the matter is when you sell.

Villa05 · 05-03-2021 11:48PM

Hubertj wrote:

Iâ€™d much prefer my hard earned money to go to a pension fund than provision of public services.

Are you referring to your own pension fund or as is happening some one elses

hometruths · 05-03-2021 11:51PM

fliball123 wrote: »

So if people stop paying their mortgage they will be allowed stay in their home this is now a given. Lots of ifs and buts in your scenario but supply will not be added to by people not paying their mortgage on the family home.

I agree that very few people will lose their home by repossession if they're not paying their mortgage.

But these properties are likely to hit the market en masse within a relatively short time frame at some stage in the future. Given the sheer volume of them it will be interesting to see how that is handled.

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 11:51PM

Deleted User wrote: »

From my side ( as potential buyer trying to buy good house at good price and trying save money for it )
I prefer stay with cash at the moment because houses prices if will not down they will definitely not up.
For those who has no cash and has job the best way apply for mortgage and grab chance before there will be no job and bank will not give mortgage
For guys from foreign countries if no job and no savings but only high rent then better go home staying on Ireland social welfare for 1 year at home.
For those who selling houses better sell them now because no supply and good demand.
For those who found what he was looking for and not gonna sell then buy it now because no matter when you buy the matter is when you sell.

Well where have you got your cash I hope its under your mattress as you will be losing a small % every year if you have it in a bank.

Well prices have gone up since October of last year? So can you really say the will definitely not go up?

Are you renting..how much are you paying out in rent have you calculated that cost into what you would pay for a mortgage?

Timing belt · 05-03-2021 11:55PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Yep. When you have public servants spending tax payer money with no accountability what do you expect? Instead of accountability you get an automatic pay rise irrespective of how you perform in your job. Infuriating. What I find interesting is housing is a big issue and was in the election. However, with the balls government have made of things over last few months SF support has plateaued. Even if they get into government are they going to take on the task of reforming public services? They can’t get rid of people who aren’t performing (and I mean dismiss them, not disappear them). If you have a policy and people can’t execute it Because they aren’t able to (I mean execute a policy not someone) what can you do?

I think the Sh1t show that we see with DCC is down to all political parties as they play politics and and try to get one over each other instead of working together to fix the problem... I can't see how SF being elected to Government will change any of it (unless they win all City and county elections as well) as the likes of DCC will continue with their Sh1t show...... Maybe now is the time to buy shares in mobility aids as the only way SF may actually be able to resolve anything is to actively encourage the public servants to pull their socks up over their knees.

Hubertj · 06-03-2021 12:00AM

Villa05 wrote: »

Are you referring to your own pension fund or as is happening some one elses

Sarcasm...

06-03-2021 12:09AM

fliball123 wrote: »

Well where have you got your cash I hope its under your mattress as you will be losing a small % every year if you have it in a bank.

Well prices have gone up since October of last year? So can you really say the will definitely not go up?

Are you renting..how much are you paying out in rent have you calculated that cost into what you would pay for a mortgage?

I keep money in a bank.Its safe and I prefer lose a little bit than everything investing in cripto or markets.I am not putting money were I cant control them.Because I think there will be banking collapse I keep finger on trigger.
I dont care about property prices.Same as they growing up they will falling down.The most important have money in a pocket when they falling down.
Well,I will never tell anybody about my rent.
And yes.I waiting for good property price and I am not gonna listen anybody who will tell me I will not win.I am too old to believe anybody because I did see plenty things before.

cnocbui · 06-03-2021 05:04AM

Well some years ago I had a think about my money decaying in a bank account, then took it out and bought bitcoin. Each to their own.

PropQueries · 06-03-2021 09:02AM

Interesting opinion piece by Pat Leahy in the Irish Times today titled: "Return to austerity would be bonkers, but so is idea deficits do not matter".

He refers to Pachal's recent speech where he said:

"In a speech to the ESRI on Thursday, Paschal Donohoe gave notice enough about what’s coming. “The idea that ‘deficits don’t matter’ – especially for a small economy without the possibility to print its own currency – is so far wide of the mark as to be dangerous,” he said. He cautioned that the deficit would be reduced “at the appropriate pace and time”, but insisted it would have to be done."

While pulling in the purse strings will have a big impact on the local councils ability to keep renting and buying property and therefore property prices (I'm expecting the purse strings to be pulled in before the end of the year), the more interesting comment was:

"That is why the bond markets matter, and why a return to sustainable budgets in the next couple of years is imperative, no matter who is in government."

Are the political opinion writers in Ireland now expecting an election within the next couple of years?

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/return-to-austerity-would-be-bonkers-but-so-is-idea-deficits-do-not-matter-1.4502497

combat14 · 06-03-2021 09:05AM

Hubertj wrote: »

Yep. When you have public servants spending tax payer money with no accountability what do you expect? Instead of accountability you get an automatic pay rise irrespective of how you perform in your job. Infuriating. What I find interesting is housing is a big issue and was in the election. However, with the balls government have made of things over last few months SF support has plateaued. Even if they get into government are they going to take on the task of reforming public services? They can’t get rid of people who aren’t performing (and I mean dismiss them, not disappear them). If you have a policy and people can’t execute it Because they aren’t able to (I mean execute a policy not someone) what can you do?

more concerned by all the PUP and HAP payments at the moment, HAP in particular is only keeping rents extortionately high

423 million spent on HAP alone in 2019

Wanderer78 · 06-03-2021 09:10AM

PropQueries wrote:

Interesting opinion piece by Pat Leahy in the Irish Times today titled: "Return to austerity would be bonkers, but so is idea deficits do not matter".

We have to get away from dangerous ideas such as fiscal conservatism, public debt is just the public entity of the money supply, by not having deficits, we are largely reliant on the private sector entity of the supply, credit, and all the problems that entails

PropQueries · 06-03-2021 09:14AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

We have to get away from dangerous ideas such as fiscal conservatism, public debt is just the public entity of the money supply, by not having deficits, we are largely reliant on the private sector entity of the supply, credit, and all the problems that entails

He actually did allude to your thinking

:

"You can argue all you want that the world should be organised in a different way, that financial markets should not wield the power that they do, that government budgets should not be subject to the forces of financial capitalism – but until you get around to changing it (and, sincerely, good luck with that), you will have to deal with the world as it is."

Wanderer78 · 06-03-2021 09:18AM

PropQueries wrote:

"You can argue all you want that the world should be organised in a different way, that financial markets should not wield the power that they do, that government budgets should not be subject to the forces of financial capitalism â€“ but until you get around to changing it (and, sincerely, good luck with that), you will have to deal with the world as it is."

This is well proven now, well written about and well.... but we have a refusal to change, this is having catastrophic effects on our societies, we have to stop this thinking, as it's clearly dramatically failing, for everyone, including property and land owners

Danzy · 06-03-2021 10:07AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Banks leaving/closing branches.Third bank anounced changes.
It does not look that economy will recover and there will be bussiness as usual.
The banks representatives could say what they want but things does not look good.
Very bad signs.

That's very dramatic.

hometruths · 06-03-2021 10:41AM

PropQueries wrote: »

While pulling in the purse strings will have a big impact on the local councils ability to keep renting and buying property and therefore property prices (I'm expecting the purse strings to be pulled in before the end of the year)

The problem the councils have is they are committed to paying open market rent, or a % of market rent. As long as RPZ rules are in place, and landlords are preferring to keep units vacant or come up with three months rent free wheezes, rather than reduce the rent, market rents will remain as they are.

Councils may wish to trim the rental budget but the leases say otherwise!

Villa05 · 06-03-2021 10:57AM

Watched a program on amazon prime last night that claimed
Bush junior borrowed more than all the previous presidents combined
As did Obama I'm sure that trump and now Biden will carry on that trend. The thesis of the program was that this borrowing was blowing asset price bubbles globally

Hard to argue with it

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1