2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 02:42PM

Villa05 wrote: »

I think your couple in your sample had a combined income of 80k. Can you tell me what proportion of households have an income of 80k or higher.

If the remainder have to be housed and many subsidised by Mr and Mrs average. It is in the interests of the entire population to have sufficient supply in various price points where possible using different housing models that have achieved it elsewhere.

If supply is suppressed and housing is provided predominantly by the private market, as night follows day a supply issue leads to an affordability issue

That is not my contention and I do not understand why you are associating that ideology with me. seen as I have strongly opposed the state paying silly money for housing units in upmarket areas.
You on the other hand seemed passive on the topic,

There are alternatives such as co operative housing at a reasonable distance to work

Ref A1 rated homes, makes sense to do it when building. The cost could be spread out over a number of years by a tax that matches the savings of having an A1 rated house or better. Simple solution, net zero cost

no in my example they have 72k combined salary or just below the median wage in the country. The median salary in Ireland in 2018 was just over 36k. I am not doing the sums again. Look up the median wage if you dont believe me.

There is a severe supply problem there is no doubt about that but what I could show was that currently on myhome even with a severe supply problem there was over half the available properties for sale at under the 275k mark which is a price point that those on and above the median salary could afford.

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 02:43PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Schrödinger's property market according to fliball. A market that is both chronically supply constrained and affordable at the same time.

Nobody is talking sea overlooking properties in Howth except you, and asking price does not equal sale price.

price has been constrained by the lending limits put in by the ECB , if you took them away prices would absolutely rocket up.

Villa05 · 05-03-2021 02:43PM

awec wrote:

Can you post us the link that outlines how DCC are taking calls from estate agents seeking to get them involved in a bidding war?

If you intend selling your house, do you
A go to your local authority
B go to your local estate agent

DataDude · 05-03-2021 02:46PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Household income includes people in houseshares and people living with their parents. I live in a houseshare. Our household income would be over 100k but individually none of us earn over 80k and if we were buying tomorrow we wouldn't be buying with each other. Same as if I was living with my parents. The household income would be over 80k.

Fair point. Revenue have data from 2018 based on "taxpayer units". Married couples jointly assessed are considered one person essentially. I've just downloaded really quickly and unless I'm doing something stupid (possible!) it would indicate only 5.7% of taxpayer units earn over €80k.

Married both couples earning - 8.3% over €80k
Married one couple earning - 8.8% over €80k

These numbers seem remarkably low to me, but don't have time to investigate further. Maybe another time!

EDIT - If you take out the large number in 0-10k bracket (i.e. not working?) then the figures above go to 6.8%, 9.1% and 10.0%. Still seems very low though!

https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/information-about-revenue/statistics/income-distributions/individualised-gross-income-distributions.aspx

JimmyVik · 05-03-2021 02:48PM

Just off the phone about something thats been in the works for a while now.
I bought a house recently.
Had started doing a few bits and bobs but not moved in yet.
A few weeks ago i got a call from the EA i bought it with and he said he had someone who wanted to pay me well over and above what I paid for it already.
I wasnt sure, so i waited and they came back with a better offer. So I countered, sure why not.
And they said yes.
So as of today the house I bought and havent moved into is sale agreed.
And this time last year all I wanted was to rent an apartment in the city center, which im glad never happened now.
In a year or two i might go looking to buy again.

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 02:50PM

awec wrote: »

It's important to distinguish between required remedial works to bring a property up to standard vs optional improvements, which may be worth less to a buyer than they are to you.

If there's something wrong with a house that needs fixed you'd usually negotiate that out of the price.

That all depends on other factors if you have 5 people wanting 1 property for example, your going to sell to the person who you will get the greater profit from and who will be willing to cover costs to do the property up themselves.

I do actually aagree with your contention that what you outline is how it should work in a normal market but our property market is far from that.

PropQueries · 05-03-2021 02:51PM

awec wrote: »

Can you post us the link that outlines how DCC are taking calls from estate agents seeking to get them involved in a bidding war?

The process for selling your gaff to the council is outlined here: https://www.dublincity.ie/residential/housing/i-own-my-home/rent-or-sell-your-property/sell-your-property-us

Here’s an example from the Irish Times in November 2020:

“The house had gone on the market in 2018 for €450,000 but was earlier this year offered for sale for €625,000 despite its condition having deteriorated in the intervening years. The house was also broken into last year and its basement level is now boarded up.

It is understood the council paid in the region of €750,000 for the building which could cost more than €1 million to refurbish and convert into homeless accommodation.”

So, if I was interested in that property, DCC’s involvement in the bidding process increased its “market value” from €450k to €750k in less than two years.

I would have had to offer almost double the “market price” in order to outdid DCC. Even then they would have probably outbid me again.

Now apply that to the c. 4,000 properties DCC said they are currently in active negotiations with in the city.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/heritage/se%C3%A1n-o-casey-s-last-dublin-home-bought-by-city-council-to-house-homeless-1.4401169

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 03:02PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Here’s an example from the Irish Times in November 2020:

“The house had gone on the market in 2018 for €450,000 but was earlier this year offered for sale for €625,000 despite its condition having deteriorated in the intervening years. The house was also broken into last year and its basement level is now boarded up.

It is understood the council paid in the region of €750,000 for the building which could cost more than €1 million to refurbish and convert into homeless accommodation.”

So, if I was interested in that property, DCC’s involvement in the bidding process increased its “market value” from €450k to €750k in less than two years.

I would have had to offer almost double the “market price” in order to outdid DCC. Even then they would have probably outbid me again.

Now apply that to the c. 4,000 properties DCC said they are currently in active negotiations with in the city.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/heritage/se%C3%A1n-o-casey-s-last-dublin-home-bought-by-city-council-to-house-homeless-1.4401169

How do yo know DCC has pushed it up this far?

JimmyVik · 05-03-2021 03:15PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Household income includes people in houseshares and people living with their parents. I live in a houseshare. Our household income would be over 100k but individually none of us earn over 80k and if we were buying tomorrow we wouldn't be buying with each other. Same as if I was living with my parents. The household income would be over 80k.

Most people going off to buy a house will be coupling up.
So even though their income might be separate now, it will total up to a new household income.

AlmightyCushion · 05-03-2021 03:17PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Most people going off to buy a house will be coupling up.
So even though their income might be separate now, it will total up to a new household income.

It still doesn't mean that 22% will have a joint income over 80k.

AlmightyCushion · 05-03-2021 03:20PM

DataDude wrote: »

Fair point. Revenue have data from 2018 based on "taxpayer units". Married couples jointly assessed are considered one person essentially. I've just downloaded really quickly and unless I'm doing something stupid (possible!) it would indicate only 5.7% of taxpayer units earn over €80k.

Married both couples earning - 8.3% over €80k
Married one couple earning - 8.8% over €80k

These numbers seem remarkably low to me, but don't have time to investigate further. Maybe another time!

EDIT - If you take out the large number in 0-10k bracket (i.e. not working?) then the figures above go to 6.8%, 9.1% and 10.0%. Still seems very low though!

https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/information-about-revenue/statistics/income-distributions/individualised-gross-income-distributions.aspx

You also have to remember that a lot of the over 80k bracket could be older people who already own a house and are not looking to buy. The highest earners on my team at work would all be older people who own their house and aren't looking to buy or at least haven't brought it up any time we talk.

JimmyVik · 05-03-2021 03:21PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It still doesn't mean that 22% will have a joint income over 80k.

It means enough people will have it to suck up an awful lot of houses on the market. Or at the very least be strong bidders against people who dont have it.

PropQueries · 05-03-2021 03:27PM

fliball123 wrote: »

How do yo know DCC has pushed it up this far?

Well if not it raises even more questions.

Why then did DCC pay €300k more than what the seller thought was the “market value” in 2018 and €125k more than that same seller thought the “market value” was only a few months beforehand.

The only way DCC could justify paying €750k when the advertised asking price was €625k was if another bidder was involved i.e. they outbid a private bidder using taxpayer funds.

awec · 05-03-2021 03:31PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Here’s an example from the Irish Times in November 2020:

“The house had gone on the market in 2018 for €450,000 but was earlier this year offered for sale for €625,000 despite its condition having deteriorated in the intervening years. The house was also broken into last year and its basement level is now boarded up.

It is understood the council paid in the region of €750,000 for the building which could cost more than €1 million to refurbish and convert into homeless accommodation.”

So, if I was interested in that property, DCC’s involvement in the bidding process increased its “market value” from €450k to €750k in less than two years.

I would have had to offer almost double the “market price” in order to outdid DCC. Even then they would have probably outbid me again.

Now apply that to the c. 4,000 properties DCC said they are currently in active negotiations with in the city.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/heritage/se%C3%A1n-o-casey-s-last-dublin-home-bought-by-city-council-to-house-homeless-1.4401169

I'm sorry, but this is a ridiculous leap of logic.

Every single bidder involved increased the end price. DCC was just one. There could have been 5 others.

I'm not sure what you're on about when you say "double the market price". The market price is whatever it sells for on the market, whatever amount someone was willing to pay for it. In this case it was 750. The underbidder could have hit their limit at 740.

You are trying to imply if it weren't for DCC this house would have sold for closer to 450. There is absolutely nothing to suggest this is true. IMHO it is a deliberately disingenuous statement to make.

You also said that Estate Agents were ringing DCC to get them involved in bidding wars. Again, there is nothing to suggest that this is true.

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 03:34PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Well if not it raises even more questions.

Why then did DCC pay €300k more than what the seller thought was the “market value” in 2018 and €125k more than that same seller thought the “market value” was only a few months beforehand.

The only way DCC could justify paying €750k when the advertised asking price was €625k was if another bidder was involved i.e. they outbid a private bidder using taxpayer funds.

Did it not stat that it went back up for 625k after been taken off for 2 years??? I dont think DCC can be blamed for the jump in price while the property was off the market, whatever about paying 750k for a 625k asking price. But I agree it is a bit mad to pay that. I guess we will have to see how many units they get out of an outlay of 1.75million if they can house say more than 5/6 families it could economically seen in the current climate as good value as apposed to giving these families their own individual house. but its all guess work what way it will be used.

Yurt2 · 05-03-2021 03:36PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It still doesn't mean that 22% will have a joint income over 80k.

Around the time of the last census I was living in a houseshare with 3 others. For CSO statistical purposes, we comprised a household (and if you look into CSO definitions we would have been reported as such). Our household income would have been reported as (I'd guess) about 200k.

That's not an unusual arrangement in Ireland and in Dublin in particular. We have to be careful when presenting household income and overlaying those stats as something evidential about the housing market and affordability.

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 03:38PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Around the time of the last census I was living in a houseshare with 3 others. For CSO statistical purposes, we comprised a household (and if you look into CSO definitions we would have been reported as such). Our household income would have been reported as (I'd guess) about 200k.

That's not an unusual arrangement in Ireland and in Dublin in particular. We have to be careful when presenting household income and overlaying those stats as something evidential about the housing market and affordability.

I am sure you can easily write that off with all of the black market profits being made out there so a sparks/plumber any tradesman say on 40k odd would have a few side gigs going on and have a lot more in their pockets with untaxed work.

not to mention teachers/grinds, taxi drivers agreeing a price and not putting the meter on. landlords not declaring rent... ETC

PropQueries · 05-03-2021 03:39PM

awec wrote: »

I'm sorry, but this is a ridiculous leap of logic.

Every single bidder involved increased the end price. DCC was just one. There could have been 5 others.

I'm not sure what you're on about when you say "double the market price". The market price is whatever it sells for on the market. In this case it was 750.

Yes and DCC outbid them all. It was DCC that drove that “market price” from €450k to €750k.

If DCC wasn’t involved the “market price” would have been much lower.

And given that DCC are currently in active negotiations with at least c. 4,000 property owners in the city, that big “demand” you keep telling us is there and driving up prices is actually DCC and not families seeking a home in the city.

Once DCC withdraws from the market, that will be a big problem for anyone selling their property IMO

DataDude · 05-03-2021 03:40PM

awec wrote: »

I'm sorry, but this is a ridiculous leap of logic.

Every single bidder involved increased the end price. DCC was just one. There could have been 5 others.

I'm not sure what you're on about when you say "double the market price". The market price is whatever it sells for on the market, whatever amount someone was willing to pay for it. In this case it was 750. The underbidder could have hit their limit at 740.

You are trying to imply if it weren't for DCC this house would have sold for closer to 450. There is absolutely nothing to suggest this is true. IMHO it is a deliberately disingenuous statement to make.

You also said that Estate Agents were ringing DCC to get them involved in bidding wars. Again, there is nothing to suggest that this is true.

Just wondering here, I have no evidence nor have heard anyone suggest this is possible -

If you knew the Council was interested in your property, and you know they have deep pockets, could you have an obliging friend counterbid against the Council to keep pushing things up? Ideally you'd know the Councils limit, but in the absence of that insider knowledge, I wonder could you just have the "other bidder" pull out at the 11th hour and then accept the slightly lower Council offer. At least that way you'd have extracted the maximum value from them.

I know the above is borderline tinfoil hat stuff but can't help but feel like a scandal along those lines would be peak Ireland.

You could also employ the above tactic in any sale but Council likely to be less price sensitive than most.

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 03:41PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes and DCC outbid them all. It was DCC that drove that “market price” from €450k to €750k.

If DCC wasn’t involved the “market price” would have been much lower.

And given that DCC are currently in active negotiations with at least c. 4,000 property owners in the city, that big “demand” you keep telling us is there and driving up prices is actually DCC and not families seeking a home in the city.

Once DCC withdraws from the market, that will be a big problem for anyone selling their property IMO

Once again the price went from 450 to 625 while it was off the market DCC did not have any part of that price increase

awec · 05-03-2021 03:42PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes and DCC outbid them all. It was DCC that drove that “market price” from €450k to €750k.

If DCC wasn’t involved the “market price” would have been much lower.

And given that DCC are currently in active negotiations with at least c. 4,000 property owners in the city, that big “demand” you keep telling us is there and driving up prices is actually DCC and not families seeking a home in the city.

Once DCC withdraws from the market, that will be a big problem for anyone selling their property IMO

Ok, show your proof for this statement.

Yurt2 · 05-03-2021 03:43PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I am sure you can easily write that off with all of the black market profits being made out there so a sparks/plumber any tradesman say on 40k odd would have a few side gigs going on and have a lot more in their pockets with untaxed work.

not to mention teachers/grinds, taxi drivers agreeing a price and not putting the meter on. landlords not declaring rent... ETC

"You know those ratings are flawed Ron Burgundy. They don't take into account houses with more than two television sets...and other things of that nature..."

awec · 05-03-2021 03:44PM

DataDude wrote: »

Just wondering here, I have no evidence nor have heard anyone suggest this is possible -

If you knew the Council was interested in your property, and you know they have deep pockets, could you have an obliging friend counterbid against the Council to keep pushing things up? Ideally you'd know the Councils limit, but in the absence of that insider knowledge, I wonder could you just have the "other bidder" pull out at the 11th hour and then accept the slightly lower Council offer. At least that way you'd have extracted the maximum value from them.

I know the above is borderline tinfoil hat stuff but can't help but feel like a scandal along those lines would be peak Ireland.

You could also employ the above tactic in any sale but Council likely to be less price sensitive than most.

Sure it's possible, but as you say it's tin foil hat stuff.

donnaille · 05-03-2021 03:45PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I am sure you can easily write that off with all of the black market profits being made out there so a sparks/plumber any tradesman say on 40k odd would have a few side gigs going on and have a lot more in their pockets with untaxed work.

not to mention teachers/grinds, taxi drivers agreeing a price and not putting the meter on. landlords not declaring rent... ETC

That would potentially only wipe out 'black market profits' for those not seeking to purchase a house. Some (particularly from my own knowledge those in trades) will likely be declaring as much as possible to have any hope of meeting lending criteria.

MacronvFrugals · 05-03-2021 03:45PM

With the latest opinion poll showing a further drop for FF I imagine they'll be extra desperate to push the shared equity scheme through

The Business Post/Red C poll taken between 18th-25th February

FG- 29
SF- 29
FF- 13

JimmyVik · 05-03-2021 03:46PM

Economy grew by over 3% last year.
House prices are up.
Who would have thought that last March?

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 03:50PM

Yurt! wrote: »

"You know those ratings are flawed Ron Burgundy. They don't take into account houses with more than two television sets...and other things of that nature..."

I was going on a metric of the median wage of 36k going I not sure where the other poster was getting there info from. This was taken from the CSO and took both full and part time workers into account back in 2018

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-eaads/earningsanalysisusingadministrativedatasources2018/annualearnings/

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 03:52PM

donnaille wrote: »

That would potentially only wipe out 'black market profits' for those not seeking to purchase a house. Some (particularly from my own knowledge those in trades) will likely be declaring as much as possible to have any hope of meeting lending criteria.

why would you be doing that you can be getting more of a deposit up and things like OT and work not considered your full time job as in nixers are considered once off and/or not a steady reoccurring income stream sure banks wont even take bonuses into account when your looking for a mortgage

AlmightyCushion · 05-03-2021 03:55PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Around the time of the last census I was living in a houseshare with 3 others. For CSO statistical purposes, we comprised a household (and if you look into CSO definitions we would have been reported as such). Our household income would have been reported as (I'd guess) about 200k.

That's not an unusual arrangement in Ireland and in Dublin in particular. We have to be careful when presenting household income and overlaying those stats as something evidential about the housing market and affordability.

This is exactly the point I am making.

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 03:56PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Economy grew by over 3% last year.
House prices are up.
Who would have thought that last March?

It grew by 3% have you any links to that Jimmy ?

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1