2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Mervyn Skidmore · 25-02-2021 10:59PM

I'm sure this has been posted here but is there any light at the end of the tunnel in terms of property prices?

I have been keeping an eye on prices in Galway for the last couple of years and they have went from eye watering to just outright insane. A new 3 bed semi-d starts at around 375k. Existing stock is low and some of the prices for the dumps available are unbelievable. Finding it incredibly stressful that I supposedly have a good job but home ownership seems very unlikely.

combat14 · 25-02-2021 11:08PM

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

I'm sure this has been posted here but is there any light at the end of the tunnel in terms of property prices?

I have been keeping an eye on prices in Galway for the last couple of years and they have went from eye watering to just outright insane. A new 3 bed semi-d starts at around 375k. Existing stock is low and some of the prices for the dumps available are unbelievable. Finding it incredibly stressful that I supposedly have a good job but home ownership seems very unlikely.

rents are eye watering too.. alot of young people will be forced to leave here once pandemic is over

Cyrus · 25-02-2021 11:12PM

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

I'm sure this has been posted here but is there any light at the end of the tunnel in terms of property prices?

I have been keeping an eye on prices in Galway for the last couple of years and they have went from eye watering to just outright insane. A new 3 bed semi-d starts at around 375k. Existing stock is low and some of the prices for the dumps available are unbelievable. Finding it incredibly stressful that I supposedly have a good job but home ownership seems very unlikely.

The guy who everyone is queuing up to praise for being right about everything reckons a 75 percent decrease in the near future .

So you are golden.

Pelezico · 25-02-2021 11:13PM

Thank goodness props is back. The nonsense if the last thread is far behind us.

Cyrus · 25-02-2021 11:18PM

Pelezico wrote: »

Thank goodness props is back. The nonsense if the last thread is far behind us.

What nonsense ?

cnocbui · 25-02-2021 11:22PM

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

I'm sure this has been posted here but is there any light at the end of the tunnel in terms of property prices?

I have been keeping an eye on prices in Galway for the last couple of years and they have went from eye watering to just outright insane. A new 3 bed semi-d starts at around 375k. Existing stock is low and some of the prices for the dumps available are unbelievable. Finding it incredibly stressful that I supposedly have a good job but home ownership seems very unlikely.

Houses are not expensive in Ireland.

Believe it or not, but stock is limited because prices were so low for a decade post 2008, that very few were being built because when finished, they were worth less than they cost to build. So the low stock is to some extent because prices haven't been high enough.

fliball123 · 25-02-2021 11:53PM

Pelezico wrote: »

Thank goodness props is back. The nonsense if the last thread is far behind us.

what where he was predicting a huge crash in 2020 ..Did it happen??? hmmm hindsight is a wonderful thing

Yurt2 · 25-02-2021 11:53PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Houses are not expensive in Ireland.

Believe it or not, but stock is limited because prices were so low for a decade post 2008, that very few were being built because when finished, they were worth less than they cost to build. So the low stock is to some extent because prices haven't been high enough.

That's a hoot. Prices aren't high enough, so affordability will be achieved through higher house prices, but they are affordable, so there's no problem.

Your graph does not equate to an affordability index fyi.

MacronvFrugals · 25-02-2021 11:57PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Houses are not expensive in Ireland.

Believe it or not, but stock is limited because prices were so low for a decade post 2008, that very few were being built because when finished, they were worth less than they cost to build. So the low stock is to some extent because prices haven't been high enough.

Could you post the link to that graph?

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 12:12AM

Cyrus wrote: »

What nonsense ?

I dont wish to comment further but glad prop is with us again.

fliball123 · 26-02-2021 12:14AM

Yurt! wrote: »

That's a hoot. Prices aren't high enough, so affordability will be achieved through higher house prices, but they are affordable, so there's no problem.

Your graph does not equate to an affordability index fyi.

If you read what he wrote, he wrote that the supply problem was a symptom of prices being too low during the last number of years after the crash, meaning that if a house was built it was worth less than what it cost to build. He never said anything about affordability.

cnocbui · 26-02-2021 12:19AM

Yurt! wrote: »

That's a hoot. Prices aren't high enough, so affordability will be achieved through higher house prices, but they are affordable, so there's no problem.

Your graph does not equate to an affordability index fyi.

Of 192 cities in Europe, Dublin ranks 118th in affordability, so 61% of those cities have less affordable housing. https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/region_rankings.jsp?title=2021&region=150

Ireland has the 6th most affordable housing in terms of price to income ratio out of 33 countries: https://www.statista.com/statistics/237529/price-to-income-ratio-of-housing-worldwide/

Why don't you provide some links disagreeing with these ones?

Mervyn Skidmore · 26-02-2021 12:20AM

Surely affordability is the only thing that matters for first time buyers?

thefridge2006 · 26-02-2021 12:20AM

Cyrus wrote: »

point out where this specific issue related to CBCR was shot down and laughed at, you arent going well, one of your last posts was responding to someone talking about tech stocks being down 30%

Maybe if you take your head out of the sand and stop trying to be some argumentative keyboard hard man and listen to Props once in a while you might learn something.

Props isn't afraid to speak his mind and take big punts on his predictions. Remarkably he's been on the money a lot more than you and deserves some respect in here.

I really hope you're not like this in person and its just a weird internet fantasy

PS. please don't report like you have all the other times

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 12:20AM

Pelezico wrote: »

I dont wish to comment further but glad prop is with us again.

He has been for quite some time .

Graham · 26-02-2021 12:22AM

Pelezico wrote: »

I dont wish to comment further

Mod

wise

Summer2020 · 26-02-2021 12:22AM

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Maybe if you take your head out of the sand and stop trying to be some argumentative keyboard hard man and listen to Props once in a while you might learn something.

Props isn't afraid to speak his mind and take big punts on his predictions. Remarkably he's been on the money a lot more than you and deserves some respect in here.

I really hope you're not like this in person and its just a weird internet fantasy

PS. please don't report like you have all the other times

Laughable. Hard to know if you’re trolling or not.

Yurt2 · 26-02-2021 12:24AM

fliball123 wrote: »

If you read what he wrote, he wrote that the supply problem was a symptom of prices being too low during the last number of years after the crash, meaning that if a house was built it was worth less than what it cost to build. He never said anything about affordability.

He said houses are not expensive in Ireland. That's a nonsense.

UN housing rapporteur reports Ireland as an unaffordable housing market. CSO name-checks an international piece of research for middle income earners that shows all our major housing markets bar Waterford and Limerick as "seriously unaffordable" (and I can assure you, there is only a certain strata of people in those two who are middle income and much more below).

http://www.housingagency.ie/data-hub/house-price-income-ratio

fliball123 · 26-02-2021 12:26AM

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Maybe if you take your head out of the sand and stop trying to be some argumentative keyboard hard man and listen to Props once in a while you might learn something.

Props isn't afraid to speak his mind and take big punts on his predictions. Remarkably he's been on the money a lot more than you and deserves some respect in here.

I really hope you're not like this in person and its just a weird internet fantasy

PS. please don't report like you have all the other times

The problem is that Props mind wonders like Walter Mitty on steroids, I agree he brings the odd well backed up comment and to be honest I do get a laugh out of some of the outrageous opinions he/she has, but the comments he makes based on fact are few and far between and things like 75% drops coming soon kind of give him/her away of what they want to happen. But it has not panned out.

Graham · 26-02-2021 12:26AM

Mod Note

ok folks, posts have been getting a little too personal over the last day or two. Attack the post, not the poster.

Do not reply to this post.

Yurt2 · 26-02-2021 12:27AM

cnocbui wrote: »

Of 192 cities in Europe, Dublin ranks 118th in affordability, so 61% of those cities have less affordable housing. https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/region_rankings.jsp?title=2021&region=150

Ireland has the 6th most affordable housing in terms of price to income ratio out of 33 countries: https://www.statista.com/statistics/237529/price-to-income-ratio-of-housing-worldwide/

Why don't you provide some links disagreeing with these ones?

Did you seriously just link to Statista and Numbeo? Do yourself a favour and never step into an economics class and try to present these sources as 'proof' of anything.

cnocbui · 26-02-2021 12:27AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Could you post the link to that graph?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/722946/house-price-index-in-real-terms-in-eu-28/

Mervyn Skidmore · 26-02-2021 12:28AM

I'm a blow in to this thread but those house price comparisons with other countries, do they compare like with like? Are some absolute sheds in Ireland considered to be "houses"?

Yurt2 · 26-02-2021 12:29AM

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.statista.com/statistics/722946/house-price-index-in-real-terms-in-eu-28/

Statista...

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 12:29AM

<SNIP>

Mod Note

please leave the moderation to the mods.

Thanks

fliball123 · 26-02-2021 12:30AM

Yurt! wrote: »

He said houses are not expensive in Ireland. That's a nonsense.

UN housing rapporteur reports Ireland as an unaffordable housing market. CSO name-checks a an international piece of research for middle income earners that shows all our major housing markets bar Waterford and Limerick as "seriously unaffordable" (and I can assure you, there is only a certain strata of people in those two who are middle income and much more below).

http://www.housingagency.ie/data-hub/house-price-income-ratio

They are not that expensive in Ireland he has given you the graph, he has also just sent you on two links to further the argument, just going to copy his full post here.

Of 192 cities in Europe, Dublin ranks 118th in affordability, so 61% of those cities have less affordable housing. https://www.numbeo.com/property-inve...021&region=150

Ireland has the 6th most affordable housing in terms of price to income ratio out of 33 countries: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ing-worldwide/

Why don't you provide some links disagreeing with these ones?

I have also painstakingly gone over how Ireland property is not over priced when you take a couple on the median wage and what the average price of a house in the country is and using the current lending ratios and deposit ratios. Yet because Dublin (like every other major and/or capital city in the world) people have to pay a premium then all of a sudden Ireland is expensive.

Yurt2 · 26-02-2021 12:32AM

fliball123 wrote: »

They are not that expensive in Ireland he has given you the graph, he has also just sent you on two links to further the argument, just going to copy his full post here.

Of 192 cities in Europe, Dublin ranks 118th in affordability, so 61% of those cities have less affordable housing. https://www.numbeo.com/property-inve...021&region=150

Ireland has the 6th most affordable housing in terms of price to income ratio out of 33 countries: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ing-worldwide/

Why don't you provide some links disagreeing with these ones?

I have also painstakingly gone over how Ireland property is not over priced when you take a couple on the median wage and what the average price of a house in the country is and using the current lending ratios and deposit ratios. Yet because Dublin (like every other major and/or capital city in the world) people have to pay a premium then all of a sudden Ireland is expensive.

Going to Ask Jeeves and finding a link that would have you failed in a first year economics class isn't painstaking.

As per cnocbui. It's difficult to take anyone seriously who is linking to Statista and Numbeo

hometruths · 26-02-2021 12:34AM

fliball123 wrote: »

They are not that expensive in Ireland he has given you the graph, he has also just sent you on two links to further the argument, just going to copy his full post here.

Are you sure you understand what that graph is telling you?

MacronvFrugals · 26-02-2021 12:35AM

cnocbui wrote: »

Of 192 cities in Europe, Dublin ranks 118th in affordability, so 61% of those cities have less affordable housing. https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/region_rankings.jsp?title=2021&region=150

Ireland has the 6th most affordable housing in terms of price to income ratio out of 33 countries: https://www.statista.com/statistics/237529/price-to-income-ratio-of-housing-worldwide/

Why don't you provide some links disagreeing with these ones?

The Numbeo one is using average salary which is a poor measurement, normally sociologists use median to avoid skews and distortions from a fewer high earners

Average income is 47k
Median income is 35k

Median Household income is 47k

Open to correction on these points though

cnocbui · 26-02-2021 12:37AM

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1