2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 10:06PM

schmittel wrote: »

When you put it like that I agree it does not seem logical.

Hadn't actually looked at your figures too closely, but as it turns out neither had you.

I messed up sorting the data.... Have updated the post now with the correct data.

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 10:07PM

PropQueries wrote: »

You don’t work for the DCC housing department by any chance?

No I get paid by EA's to come on here and post... hope I don't get fired for my stupid mistake :P

Graham · 04-02-2021 10:09PM

Timing belt wrote: »

You are correct I went back and checked them and I obviously messed up sorting the data.

Pity, it would have been interesting to see the Manhattan-like skyline against the Barrow in Carlow

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 10:11PM

Graham wrote: »

Pity, it would have been interesting to see the Manhattan-like skyline against the Barrow in Carlow

Maybe that is the answer... high rise in Carlow must be cheaper than the Dublin Dock lands

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 10:17PM

2020 house completions Breakdown by Eircode

Row Labels 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Grand Total
W91: Naas 187 139 248 297 871
H91: Galway 168 100 174 287 729
A92: Drogheda 159 190 132 218 699
D24: Dublin 24 115 44 95 436 690
D15: Dublin 15 81 119 135 276 611
W23: Celbridge 123 89 146 189 547
D13: Dublin 13 296 153 28 67 544
T12: Cork Southside 120 63 164 142 489
V94: Limerick 118 62 122 183 485
K78: Lucan 124 77 91 192 484
C15: Navan 119 111 142 106 478
A67: Wicklow 106 94 78 95 373
X91: Waterford 112 68 85 94 359
T23: Cork Northside 83 53 108 113 357
A91: Dundalk 56 90 94 111 351
A63: Greystones 40 48 141 104 333
D18: Dublin 18 106 52 79 89 326
V93: Killarney 43 29 112 141 325
V95: Ennis 57 52 93 109 311
D22: Dublin 22 7 43 16 242 308
R32: Portlaoise 58 55 73 120 306
R95: Kilkenny 88 56 60 95 299
D01: Dublin 1 102 15 64 107 288
D08: Dublin 8 144 21 25 96 286
F92: Letterkenny 48 50 50 117 265
A85: Dunshaughlin 82 58 51 69 260
A82: Kells 56 36 73 72 237
K36: Malahide 47 25 86 67 225
P51: Mallow 35 31 68 88 222
Y35: Wexford 63 31 43 82 219
K67: Swords 96 16 69 34 215
P43: Carrigaline 49 28 65 59 201
D09: Dublin 9 3 67 10 117 197
D6W: Dublin 6W 12 37 20 119 188
K32: Balbriggan 25 52 53 53 183
Y25: Gorey 40 36 54 51 181
Y21: Enniscorthy 30 31 55 63 179
T45: Glanmire 45 28 40 64 177
R93: Carlow 20 29 69 57 175
N91: Mullingar 41 27 41 65 174
V92: Tralee 31 20 47 73 171
F93: Lifford 37 33 45 50 165
R51: Kildare 36 19 56 51 162
D11: Dublin 11 19 32 9 99 159
D06: Dublin 6 18 0 54 86 158
P31: Ballincollig 29 20 57 44 150
D04: Dublin 4 60 22 35 29 146
A96: Glenageary 16 10 11 108 145
F94: Donegal 36 16 39 54 145
P25: Midleton 31 15 40 58 144
F91: Sligo 49 7 47 40 143
A94: Blackrock 21 11 45 62 139
N39: Longford 20 22 35 60 137
D05: Dublin 5 10 1 74 51 136
D14: Dublin 14 55 9 53 16 133
A98: Bray 15 4 28 83 130
N37: Athlone 58 22 25 25 130
H62: Loughrea 18 15 33 60 126
F26: Ballina 26 17 36 44 123
D12: Dublin 12 38 1 24 48 111
R35: Tullamore 36 16 21 34 107
D07: Dublin 7 6 4 38 57 105
P12: Macroom 16 12 46 31 105
D16: Dublin 16 76 1 7 13 97
H53: Ballinasloe 33 15 20 26 94
Y14: Arklow 10 13 22 49 94
P17: Kinsale 11 7 29 46 93
X35: Dungarvan 18 14 32 29 93
F28: Westport 37 15 18 21 91
W12: Newbridge 17 6 33 33 89
F12: Claremorris 18 14 37 16 85
F23: Castlebar 26 9 25 20 80
E41: Thurles 16 16 18 29 79
P24: Cobh 22 14 11 32 79
H18: Monaghan 18 16 21 23 78
P61: Fermoy 59 3 11 5 78
D02: Dublin 2 57 4 4 11 76
E91: Clonmel 21 25 18 9 73
E32: Carrick-on-Suir 16 4 30 21 71
A75: Castleblaney 4 6 25 34 69
R14: Athy 18 20 12 17 67
A81: Carrickmacross 20 11 15 18 64
F42: Roscommon 8 8 16 30 62
A83: Enfield 10 15 23 13 61
H12: Cavan 13 6 18 24 61
P72: Bandon 12 18 14 17 61
R56: Curragh 2 4 5 50 61
Y34: New Ross 12 16 16 16 60
K56: Rush 45 9 2 2 58
H54: Tuam 15 13 9 17 54
H65: Athenry 15 11 9 19 54
D03: Dublin 3 25 7 14 7 53
V35: Kilmallock 9 5 17 22 53
P85: Clonakilty 7 8 13 22 50
F45: Castlerea 5 10 15 18 48
P36: Youghal 9 5 8 26 48
V31: Listowel 7 4 7 28 46
P47: Dunmanway 15 7 20 3 45
W34: Monasterevin 11 14 11 8 44
E34: Tipperary 11 7 9 14 41
E45: Nenagh 9 5 11 15 40
F35: Ballyhaunis 15 5 11 9 40
R42: Birr 8 3 10 19 40
P81: Skibbereen 8 2 17 10 37
T56: Watergrasshill 16 3 8 9 36
K45: Lusk 29 0 2 3 34
R45: Edenderry 0 1 3 30 34
A41: Ballyboughal 26 1 3 2 32
R21: Mhuine Bheag 6 20 3 3 32
P75: Bantry 13 4 4 10 31
X42: Kilmacthomas 10 4 11 6 31
A84: Ashbourne 11 1 2 14 28
V42: Newcastle West 9 4 7 8 28
F56: Ballymote 17 1 6 2 26
P14: Crookstown 9 6 5 6 26
V23: Caherciveen 2 1 13 9 25
N41: Carrick-on-Shannon 3 6 7 8 24
P32: Rylane 3 5 5 9 22
V15: Kilrush 4 10 5 3 22
P67: Mitchelstown 3 3 7 8 21
E53: Roscrea 1 5 8 6 20
F52: Boyle 7 1 8 4 20
F31: Ballinrobe 7 1 2 9 19
H14: Belturbet 5 4 6 3 18
E21: Cahir 3 1 7 6 17
E25: Cashel 6 2 4 4 16
A86: Dunboyne 0 2 3 10 15
P56: Charleville 4 3 4 4 15
A42: Garristown 5 3 4 1 13
D20: Dublin 20 0 1 11 0 12
K34: Skerries 2 3 2 5 12
V14: Shannon 4 4 2 2 12
H16: Cootehill 0 3 0 8 11
H23: Clones 1 1 0 7 9
T34: Carrignavar 3 1 2 3 9
H71: Clifden 2 3 2 1 8
D10: Dublin 10 1 0 0 5 6
D17: Dublin 17 0 1 3 1 5
A45: Oldtown 1 0 1 1 3

4966 3237 5073 7400 20676

hometruths · 04-02-2021 10:26PM

Geodirectory reports total housing stock of 2,014,357 in Dec 2019 vs 2,042,426 in Dec 20

This is an increase in housing stock of just over 28,000.

If we got 21,000 new builds where are the other 7k coming from?

Graham · 04-02-2021 10:26PM

Surprised not to see Maynooth on that list.

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 10:33PM

Graham wrote: »

Surprised not to see Maynooth on that list.

Is Maynooth not under W23: Celbridge

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 10:36PM

schmittel wrote: »

Geodirectory reports total housing stock of 2,014,357 in Dec 2019 vs 2,042,426 in Dec 20

This is an increase in housing stock of just over 28,000.

If we got 21,000 new builds where are the other 7k coming from?

page 5 of 2020 geodirectory report states:
In the 12 months to December 2020, a total of 21,851 new addresses*
were added to the GeoDirectory database, equating to 1.1% of the total residential stock.

04-02-2021 10:37PM

Due with lockdowns we did not went for holidays to Spain and because we work from home we did not buy sandwiches in cafe shop.We got our saving increased to historicaly high level at 2000 euros and we gonna spend them buying new 3 beds property at 2000 euros price at cash sale in Dublin city center from Johny Ronnan.This definetly gonna move property market prices up ! So for that reason we gonna save another 50 euros saying no to Netflix and moving to Disney+

Graham · 04-02-2021 10:38PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Is Maynooth not under W23: Celbridge

It is indeed.

hometruths · 04-02-2021 10:39PM

Timing belt wrote: »

page 5 of 2020 geodirectory report states:
In the 12 months to December 2020, a total of 21,851 new addresses*
were added to the GeoDirectory database, equating to 1.1% of the total residential stock.

So the additional 7k increase in housing stock are presumably derelicts brought back to life?

Idbatterim · 04-02-2021 10:48PM

Lads, put yourself down on the social housing list and this 960,000 euro apartment could be yours. One of 101 luxury homes irelands most industrious will be living it up in!

Living in luxury and they are so wealthy, they can live there and not even have to work a day in their lives, thanks to you ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ronan-plans-to-sell-960-000-apartment-to-council-for-social-housing-1.4476385?mode=amp

PropQueries · 04-02-2021 10:49PM

schmittel wrote: »

Geodirectory reports total housing stock of 2,014,357 in Dec 2019 vs 2,042,426 in Dec 20

This is an increase in housing stock of just over 28,000.

If we got 21,000 new builds where are the other 7k coming from?

Probably due to supply like these 47 apartments in Ballybofey (link below) that will be entering supply in 2021 but won’t be recorded in the new build statistics at the end of this year.

Just took my Tin-foil hat back out of storage so I believe we’re going to see more and more similar examples like this going forward.

As was my opinion a while back, many similar type developments across Ireland had been purchased by funds etc. over the past 7 years and by the time those buyers got through the paperwork, fixed them up and got them back into supply would have taken a few years.

We’re at that “few years” period about now and these will turn into an avalanche of up to now hidden existing supply entering the market very quickly in the very near future IMO

Link to Ballybofey apartments in today’s Irish Independent: https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/donegal-apartment-portfolio-sells-for-around-145m-guide-40049618.html

TheSheriff · 04-02-2021 10:51PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

Lads, put yourself down on the social housing list and this 960,000 euro apartment could be yours. One of 101 luxury homes irelands most industrious will be living it up in!

Living in luxury and they are so wealthy, they can live there and not even have to work a day in their lives, thanks to you ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ronan-plans-to-sell-960-000-apartment-to-council-for-social-housing-1.4476385?mode=amp

Literally just came across this article on twitter.

Lost for words, hopefully DCC would not pay this.

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 10:54PM

schmittel wrote: »

So the additional 7k increase in housing stock are presumably derelicts brought back to life?

No I don't think so as they are different data sets so need to be careful comparing them... for example geodirectory includes student accommodation the new completion from the CSO does not.

I did a quick comparison from the 21,851 additions taken from page 5 of the geodirectory report against the cso completion data 20,676

CSO Total Geo Total Difference
Meath 1512 1282 230
Wicklow 1046 866 180
Kerry 574 432 142
Donegal 574 466 108
Waterford 479 382 97
Monaghan 222 147 75
Sligo 179 130 49
Limerick 519 478 41
Longford 122 82 40
Cavan 199 180 19
Cork 2459 2442 17
Tipperary 316 328 -12
Galway 1061 1075 -14
Mayo 423 444 -21
Clare 398 420 -22
Westmeath 293 333 -40
Kilkenny 381 423 -42
Leitrim 37 82 -45
Roscommon 171 228 -57
Offaly 197 272 -75
Laois 334 413 -79
Louth 618 705 -87
Wexford 624 744 -120
Carlow 194 333 -139
Kildare 1663 1926 -263
Dublin 6081 7238 -1157

Grand Total 20676 21851 -1175

hometruths · 04-02-2021 10:54PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Probably due to supply like these 47 apartments in Ballybofey (link below) that will be entering supply in 2021 but won’t be recorded in the new build statistics at the end of this year.

Just took my Tin-foil hat back out of storage so I believe we’re going to see more and more similar examples like this going forward.

As was my opinion a while back, many similar type developments across Ireland had been purchased by funds etc. over the past 7 years and by the time those buyers got through the paperwork, fixed them up and got them back into supply would have taken a few years.

We’re at that “few years” period about now and these will turn into an avalanche of up to now hidden existing supply entering the market very quickly in the very near future IMO

Link to Ballybofey apartments in today’s Irish Independent: https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/donegal-apartment-portfolio-sells-for-around-145m-guide-40049618.html

Would be surprised if there were 7k of those around the country.

Whatever the reason, an increase of 28,000 in the housing stock seems to be a pretty healthy chunk of additional housing in any circumstances never mind the fact that country was in lockdown for most of 2020.

Seems like those who were nervous we'd run out of houses to buy even quicker because of covid had no need to panic.

Idbatterim · 04-02-2021 10:55PM

TheSheriff wrote: »

Literally just came across this article on twitter.

Lost for words, hopefully DCC would not pay this.

Oh they will pay it.the housing waiting lost and homeless numbers are all they care about, they would pay anything to stop them increasing. The only thing they care about is how they look. Their failure is a criminal disgrace. Its off the wall laziness. If economic collapse is the price to pay to stop issues being ignored here, making them fave up to reality, it will be worth it...

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 10:58PM

schmittel wrote: »

Would be surprised if there were 7k of those around the country.

Whatever the reason, an increase of 28,000 in the housing stock seems to be a pretty healthy chunk of additional housing in any circumstances never mind the fact that country was in lockdown for most of 2020.

Seems like those who were nervous we'd run out of houses to buy even quicker because of covid had no need to panic.

The Geodirectory report for 2020 states 21k additions not 28k

PropQueries · 04-02-2021 11:00PM

schmittel wrote: »

Would be surprised if there were 7k of those around the country.

Whatever the reason, an increase of 28,000 in the housing stock seems to be a pretty healthy chunk of additional housing in any circumstances never mind the fact that country was in lockdown for most of 2020.

Seems like those who were nervous we'd run out of houses to buy even quicker because of covid had no need to panic.

Who do you think bought up and now owns all that excess supply from the boom years? How do you think we went from too many houses in 2011 to no houses in 2014?

All the excess supply from the boom years is about to re-enter the market and the data is not going to catch any of it IMO

Summer2020 · 04-02-2021 11:04PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

Lads, put yourself down on the social housing list and this 960,000 euro apartment could be yours. One of 101 luxury homes irelands most industrious will be living it up in!

Living in luxury and they are so wealthy, they can live there and not even have to work a day in their lives, thanks to you ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ronan-plans-to-sell-960-000-apartment-to-council-for-social-housing-1.4476385?mode=amp

Jesus f*cking Christ this country is so messed up. I thought the Dun Laoghaire rathfown deal for Herbert Hill was bad.

Marius34 · 04-02-2021 11:05PM

Timing belt wrote: »

The Geodirectory report for 2020 states 21k additions not 28k

Regarding the GeoDirectory, actually is not 21K, nor 28K of new housing stock for 2020. Both numbers means something different, and not annual new housing stock for a year of 2020.

hometruths · 04-02-2021 11:06PM

Timing belt wrote: »

The Geodirectory report for 2020 states 21k additions not 28k

Apologies, but I hope you'll me forgive for thinking your credibility in being able to see what's under your nose in the data is diminished somewhat in light of the old rural people being the majority of 7/10 of the population, and 47% of apartments being built in Carlow.

hometruths · 04-02-2021 11:09PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Who do you think bought up and now owns all that excess supply from the boom years? How do you think we went from too many houses in 2011 to no houses in 2014?

All the excess supply from the boom years is about to re-enter the market and the data is not going to catch any of it IMO

No idea who bought it, but I agree at some stage that supply is hitting the market and everybody will be saying "Wow, were did all these houses come from?!"

Are you sure it was 2014 that we officially had no houses? I thought it was a bit later. I was trying to remember the other day, and did a bit of googling but could not identify the point when we went from oversupply to panic, we need to build.

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 11:09PM

schmittel wrote: »

Apologies, but I hope you'll me forgive for thinking your credibility in being able to see what's under your nose in the data is diminished somewhat in light of the old rural people being the majority of 7/10 of the population, and 47% of apartments being built in Carlow.

If you want to trade insults go find a mirror!!!!

If you have something constructive to add then I will listen.

hometruths · 04-02-2021 11:14PM

Timing belt wrote: »

If you want to trade insults go find a mirror!!!!

If you have something constructive to add then I will listen.

Great.

Geodirectory reports total housing stock of 2,014,357 in Dec 2019 vs 2,042,426 in Dec 20

This is an increase in housing stock of just over 28,000.

If we got 21,000 new builds where are the other 7k coming from?

04-02-2021 11:20PM

Timing belt wrote: »

You need to step back and ask why savings have increased during the pandemic and why this is the case globally. A lot of people assume it is because people do not have the opportunity to spend with the lockdowns which will contribute to the effect but I still think the main reason is that people are unsure of future events and how it will impact them financially and this is the reason for the increase in savings. This has been the case during every recession and in part contributes to the recession as when people save they stop spending which slows the economy down more.

The 08 crisis came about because the financial system was drained of liquidity and came to a stop and then the house of cards started to fall. A similar event took place in march 2020 but the central banks stepped in and injected liquidity and got the system moving again but no-one has no idea for how long this will last.

The economic forecasts are all for growth in the coming years once Covid is put to bed but there is no guarantee that this will be the case as the financial system is very fragile at the moment and it would not take a lot to have the house of cards crashing down again.

My view on property is that we will see and increase in prices in the next 1-2 years as along as the financial system does not crash.... are house prices or rent levels sustainable at the level they are at is the important question because if you think they are then there is no crash in property coming if you think they are not sustainable then a crash is coming.

In the mean time should you purchase a property all depends on your personal circumstances and whether you believe house prices are sustainable... For example if If you are paying high rent you may be financially better off buying even if the property value drops in a year or two.

There is no one size fits all and any decision is personal and based on a risk/benefit analysis.

Because banks stopped give 110 percent mortgages as in 2007 and started ask 20-30 per cent deposits after 2008.Because banks stoped give car loans to people on PUP and people got make own savings to buy one.Because savings was growing from PreCovid times and credit unions got setup limits for savings in credit unions please read 2019 news.The story about people will buy house because saved 700 euro because did not go to Spain is complete bs !

Hubertj · 04-02-2021 11:20PM

schmittel wrote: »

Apologies, but I hope you'll me forgive for thinking your credibility in being able to see what's under your nose in the data is diminished somewhat in light of the old rural people being the majority of 7/10 of the population, and 47% of apartments being built in Carlow.

So what’s the answer? Is it a mystery? Or is it derelict units? Or student accommodation as someone else said? Did someone find a load of gaffs when on staycation during the summer? The suspense is killing me.

PropQueries · 04-02-2021 11:23PM

schmittel wrote: »

No idea who bought it, but I agree at some stage that supply is hitting the market and everybody will be saying "Wow, were did all these houses come from?!"

Are you sure it was 2014 that we officially had no houses? I thought it was a bit later. I was trying to remember the other day, and did a bit of googling but could not identify the point when we went from oversupply to panic, we need to build.

I think you’re right that people will be shocked when this supply begins to hit the market.

In relation to the Irish housing shortage in 2013, here’s a link from 2013 titled: “Government called on to address housing shortage in Budget 2014”: https://www.thejournal.ie/threshold-pre-budget-2014-submission-1078664-Sep2013/

In relation to who bought them, the RTÉ documentary did a good analysis back in 2017:

“The Great Irish Sell-Off (Monday, RTÉ One, 9.35pm) comes to putting a face on the otherwise anonymous financial companies that now control 90,000 mortgages and €200 billion in property and business loans in the country.”

It’s still on the RTÉ player for people interested.

Link about RTÉ documentary in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/the-great-irish-sell-off-turning-the-spotlight-on-ireland-s-vulture-capitalists-1.2931597

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 11:25PM

Hubertj wrote: »

So what’s the answer? Is it a mystery? Or is it derelict units? Or student accommodation as someone else said? Did someone find a load of gaffs when on staycation during the summer? The suspense is killing me.

Who know's but Geodirectory data shows 6,759 less detached house included in their housing stock this year.

2019 - 654,264
2020 - 647,505

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1