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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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    #2612
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users Posts: 27,564 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    I really don't see rents being reduced unless there's an increase in housing. Even then I don't see landlords dropping their rents dramatically.


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    #2613
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    I really don't see rents being reduced unless there's an increase in housing. Even then I don't see landlords dropping their rents dramatically.

    Depends on how much supply and how fast it comes to the market. If a load of social housing was build it would free up a lot of properties.


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    #2614
    Fran has a bone
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 108 ✭✭Fran has a bone


    It's also worth noting how poor the quality is of the places available to rent. Most apartments are substandard even in nice areas.

    I looked at rentals in Germany, Spain even England and the quality of in the interiors and space is much better.

    Here you get squalid student boxrooms in poor condition. That's fine in college but it's disheartening when you get older and work full time


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    #2615
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Timing belt wrote: »
    Depends on how much supply and how fast it comes to the market. If a load of social housing was build it would free up a lot of properties.

    I had a quick look at Daft for Dublin. There are almost 5 pages of ads for what I would term multi-unit ads (now there are a good few student places in that mix, no surprise given what is going on in that sector). I would guesstimate maybe each of those individual ads might have on average 20 units....so if we took approx 80 ads (which are non student) in the first 5 pages on Daft you are possible looking at 1600 units there.

    Now they are mostly looking for crazy rents (there is one in Goatstown which I think was finished pre covid and is still there, even after reducing what they were looking for by ~10%). Unless they reduce the rents quite a bit they are likely to have high vacancy rates for the foreseeable future.


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    #2616
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I had a quick look at Daft for Dublin. There are almost 5 pages of ads for what I would term multi-unit ads (now there are a good few student places in that mix, no surprise given what is going on in that sector). I would guesstimate maybe each of those individual ads might have on average 20 units....so if we took approx 80 ads (which are non student) in the first 5 pages on Daft you are possible looking at 1600 units there.

    Now they are mostly looking for crazy rents (there is one in Goatstown which I think was finished pre covid and is still there, even after reducing what they were looking for by ~10%). Unless they reduce the rents quite a bit they are likely to have high vacancy rates for the foreseeable future.

    They will want to hold for the MAX rent they can get as it will help with RPZ's and they can also market the property by saying that the previous tenant was paying X.

    I would give it 4-6 months after things to back to normal (or as close to normal as possible) and we will see these properties reducing rent if they can't let at current asking price


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    #2617
    Fran has a bone
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 108 ✭✭Fran has a bone


    The RPZ seem to have caused rents to remain artificially high. So it has been a failure.

    In fact most housing policy in recent years has been a failure and that doesn't look like changing.


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    #2618
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users Posts: 27,564 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    From a societal point of view I'm more concerned about house prices. The banks aren't giving out ridiculous loans any more but the value of houses has sky rocketed. I think people are in for a shock with the dual effects of Brexit and covid hit the economy.


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    #2619
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,229 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    From a societal point of view I'm more concerned about house prices. The banks aren't giving out ridiculous loans any more but the value of houses has sky rocketed. I think people are in for a shock with the dual effects of Brexit and covid hit the economy.

    This may have an effect, though it would only impart are right to request wfh.

    https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEJyZBqTTK2JX7TxgSC5RCPcqGAgEKg8IACoHCAow2NLTATCa_DUwoJ2hAQ?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen

    It may drive up the price of property outside Dublin as people look to buy in less expensive regions.


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    #2620
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users Posts: 27,564 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Dav010 wrote: »
    This may have an effect, though it would only impart are right to request wfh.

    https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEJyZBqTTK2JX7TxgSC5RCPcqGAgEKg8IACoHCAow2NLTATCa_DUwoJ2hAQ?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen

    It may drive up the price of property outside Dublin as people look to buy in less expensive regions.

    Maybe you're right. My brother works for the government (shower of inefficient b*stards he tells me) and he says that they were told they will never go back to working in the office 100% of the time.

    That said Brexit is costing the government a ton of money and will cost a lot more in the future. We're doing OK with covid compared to the UK but this will still cost a hell of a lot.


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    #2621
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    Fran has a bone wrote: »
    The RPZ seem to have caused rents to remain artificially high. So it has been a failure.

    In fact most housing policy in recent years has been a failure and that doesn't look like changing.

    Depends on what you mean by failure. RPZs introduced at the height of the market was a way to guarantee security of income from landlords.

    Housing policy isn't actually geared towards housing the population affordably it's geared towards maximising profits for speculators. In June the government will introduce a scheme to inflate property prices by 30% using the UK's shared ownership model. These policies will continue until the middle class cop on and vote them out. The recent election nearly done the job and actually the current crowd would certainly not be in power if SF had ran a sufficient number of candidates.


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    #2622
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    cgcsb wrote: »
    Depends on what you mean by failure. RPZs introduced at the height of the market was a way to guarantee security of income from landlords.

    Housing policy isn't actually geared towards housing the population affordably it's geared towards maximising profits for speculators. In June the government will introduce a scheme to inflate property prices by 30% using the UK's shared ownership model. These policies will continue until the middle class cop on and vote them out. The recent election nearly done the job and actually the current crowd would certainly not be in power if SF had ran a sufficient number of candidates.


    I wonder what will happen to the middle income worker if they vote SF in?
    And what do SF class as middle income?


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    #2623
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Fran has a bone wrote: »
    The RPZ seem to have caused rents to remain artificially high. So it has been a failure.

    In fact most housing policy in recent years has been a failure and that doesn't look like changing.


    All.


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    #2624
    Melanchthon
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    Clazbeag wrote: »
    I'm looking to move back up to Dublin. Saw a place remotely that I know the old tenants were on 1,450. Rent will now be 1,675. Prices going up up up!!

    It's for a one bed in an excellent location. Increase pushed it out of my price range

    I don't think rents in Dublin have gone up myself, think there has definitely been a drop in the price of 1 bed apartments and probably be slight drop for 2 beds.
    The Dublin rental scene has always been very uneven with some people getting lucky and having landlords not concerned with gouging their tenants and happy to have the same group of people in for years.

    I know this is a place you know so this doesn't apply but the problem with looking at Daft is that the high prices stay on the site for ages but the better value places go fast and more importantly a lot never get advertised going by word of mouth.

    Not saying Dublin isn't way too expensive though!


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    #2625
    polaco
    Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭polaco


    I know is USA but..
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/14/technology/san-francisco-covid-work-moving.html?smtyp=cur&smid=fb-nytimes&fbclid=IwAR1nIVRCJZfTLrsKRg2JnrLvpEc5l6wanehf7uaqqOILyEhn_ndQXoztIR4


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    #2626
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,229 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    polaco wrote: »
    I know is USA but..
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/14/technology/san-francisco-covid-work-moving.html?smtyp=cur&smid=fb-nytimes&fbclid=IwAR1nIVRCJZfTLrsKRg2JnrLvpEc5l6wanehf7uaqqOILyEhn_ndQXoztIR4

    But?


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    #2627
    Fran has a bone
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 108 ✭✭Fran has a bone


    Housing issues here will never be solved supply is massively increased.

    That won't happen until there is less strict regulation and more incentives for Developers.
    For years they've only been interested in expensive appartment building for buy to let in Dublin. Developers became toxic in the crash they aren't listened to.


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    #2628
    Fran has a bone
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 108 ✭✭Fran has a bone


    Some poster suggesting Sinn Fein will fix FF/FG housing failure. It would be even worse.

    Their agenda is opposing all developments so they attack the Gov for housing crisis and profit politically.


    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/o-broin-opposed-social-housing-project-after-asking-constituents-for-their-views-39966788.html


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    #2629
    Fran has a bone
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 108 ✭✭Fran has a bone


    Other issues coming down the track are the insistence from NGOs and the Left, agreed by Government to end Direct Provision and give Asylum Seeker applicants own door accommodation on arrival in the State.

    The Department of Housing has strongly opposed this claiming it will harm homeless and reduce social housing for others in need. It's pretty extreme position lead by Roderic O'Gorman and the Greens. I believe it will end in disaster with nobody happy and increased hostility to Asylum Seekers perceived to get housing preference.

    "The Department of Housing says proposals in the advisory group's report will create a situation where families and individuals in direct provision will be competing for accommodation with homeless families and individuals."

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/proposed-new-housing-system-for-asylum-seekers-not-workable-says-housing-department-1.4416339


    Irish housing policy is a slow moving car crash. It is no wonder so many young people give up and emigrate.


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    #2630
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,620 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Fran has a bone wrote: »
    Some poster suggesting Sinn Fein will fix FF/FG housing failure. It would be even worse.
    SF's solution would more or less be to crash the market, but as things stand it is the only other thing on the table to FF/FG's more-of-the--same servicing of vested interests.


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    #2631
    Fran has a bone
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 108 ✭✭Fran has a bone


    PommieBast wrote: »
    SF's solution would more or less be to crash the market, but as things stand it is the only other thing on the table to FF/FG's more-of-the--same servicing of vested interests.

    I agree that is why Housing is only going to get worse as an issue here.WFH is helping spread people around more, probably the only positive at the moment.

    I have seen very little of Darragh O'Brien the housing minister and his ideas nearly 1 year post election.

    Unless O'Brien has success FF are on the way to being the new Labour party, irrelevant.


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    #2632
    agoodpunt
    Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭agoodpunt


    Our current model approach is reducing all as it is, rights of ownership on private and the profits that incentifivise their development continuely under attach by hard left.
    Rentals will be harder to find when things open again most LLs wont charge rent that is unaffordable


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    #2633
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,620 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Fran has a bone wrote: »
    I agree that is why Housing is only going to get worse as an issue here.WFH is helping spread people around more, probably the only positive at the moment.
    If the proposal to make WFH a permament right is actually going ahead it is going to be Game Over for many landlords.


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    #2634
    Patsy167
    Registered Users Posts: 1,803 ✭✭✭Patsy167


    In the 12 months ending in October, average rents in London fell 6.9 percent; in Birmingham, they slipped 3.2 percent; in Reading 2.2 percent and in Edinburgh 1.7 percent. All cities in the analysis fell below their surrounding regions, reflecting low demand for housing closer to city centers.

    https://www.bollyinside.com/news/residential-rents-plummet-in-major-uk-cities/

    Full article on ft.com


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    #2635
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,620 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Patsy167 wrote: »
    In the 12 months ending in October, average rents in London fell 6.9 percent; in Birmingham, they slipped 3.2 percent; in Reading 2.2 percent and in Edinburgh 1.7 percent. All cities in the analysis fell below their surrounding regions, reflecting low demand for housing closer to city centers.

    https://www.bollyinside.com/news/residential-rents-plummet-in-major-uk-cities/

    Full article on ft.com
    The FT also had a recent article about London's population going down by the best part of a million people, and a large chunk of that was emigration. House prices in the commuter belt in contrast have been rocketing.


    Aside from smaller numbers the only real difference with Dublin is a dysfunctional market that is slower to price in changes.


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    #2636
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    PommieBast wrote: »
    The FT also had a recent article about London's population going down by the best part of a million people, and a large chunk of that was emigration. House prices in the commuter belt in contrast have been rocketing.


    Aside from smaller numbers the only real difference with Dublin is a dysfunctional market that is slower to price in changes.

    Brexit would have had impacts too surely in London. But yes, rent control legislation would make Dublin a bit different. Looking at Daft.ie, it appears several of the large multi unit developments owned by the likes of Kennedy Wilson and IRES REIT have a lot of vacancies but are in no rush to reduce rents - to avoid being locked into lower rents or a more likely reason to avoid having to write down the property value.

    Kennedy Wilson had in their Q3 report that their Clancy quay development was c.30% occupied but as it's a new development I'm uncertain how long they've been trying to fill it.


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    #2637
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users Posts: 27,564 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Out of interest what would tenants and landlords suggest to increase supply and decrease rents?


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    #2638
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,620 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    Out of interest what would tenants and landlords suggest to increase supply and decrease rents?
    In the case of landlords it is "don't do it"...


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    #2639
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    Out of interest what would tenants and landlords suggest to increase supply and decrease rents?

    Increase supply by building more units to rent or decrease demand by building more units for people to buy or for social housing.

    You could get rid of Rent control which would make the market react quicker but if the supply doesn’t come and demand stays high the. Rents will rise


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    #2640
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Timing belt wrote: »
    Increase supply by building more units to rent or decrease demand by building more units for people to buy or for social housing.

    You could get rid of Rent control which would make the market react quicker but if the supply doesn’t come and demand stays high the. Rents will rise

    As some of the other posters on this page have shown there is quite a bit of supply being effectively held back due to unrealistic rents being sought. If more of the same is brought to the market it is hardly going to help matters. Unless the government do something about that nothing will change.


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    #2641
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Browney7 wrote: »
    Kennedy Wilson had in their Q3 report that their Clancy quay development was c.30% occupied but as it's a new development I'm uncertain how long they've been trying to fill it.

    With the rents they are looking for 30% is not a bad return.


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