Share Picks 2020

One More Toy · 28-11-2020 08:58PM

cronos wrote: »

Any recommendations for stock? Have Boohoo, Nio and JFrog currently. Planning to hold long term.

I like Sonos at the moment, it's a brand I see growing, seems like everyone at work has a sonos device. Having said that it's trading in a high price range so do your own research

RIGOLO · 29-11-2020 09:29AM

We all have limited time, so this weekends research was not spent (yet) on upcoming earnings but in reading PSH Pershing Square Holdings (Bill Ackmans fund) June semi-annual report, all 47 pages, its a cliffhanger, I cant wait for the movie.

So Id begun building a position in the PSTH SPAC (thanks to ambergold who alerted me to it) and based on the report Im increasing that significantly in coming weeks. Its the largest blank cheque spac in operation 4 billion in investor funds , 12 billion was bid, and they shut it down after 2 days it was so oversubscribed. PSH have option to add 1-3 billion making it 5-7 billion in total.
Lots of rumours and public comment from Ackman himself saying he is having discussions with alot of well known private entities, airbnb, bloomberg and stripe. I think Stripe is the one he wants, PSH need to add a fintech to its portfolio, they are overweighted to restaurant and hospitality. And when you consider PSH made 40% gains even with major holdings in those sectors it shows how well managed it is as they hedged early for a shutdown and won big. Also PSH is in 101-105th position for FTSE100 rating, Ackman wants addition to FTSE100 and becoming an index funds target, he doesnt understand why PSH is undervalued and isnt already in, but Im betting he is betting on the PSTH deal when its announced getting them over the line.Also Ackman has reduced the normal SPAC founders shares and commissions, so its all benefiting the spac investor. Once the merger is announced I expect PSTH to increase considerably.

So its all about PATIENCE, we are entering a time of life and the seasons where foraging for food, stockpiling and hibernation will all pay dividends in the new year. Same applies to stocks and thats why Im gathering up all the PSTH nuts I can buy and expecting to feast on them come early spring at the latest.

BlackFriday e-commerce up 22% on last year.. should be a few stocks out there that will report amazing numbers for Q4 based on this, just need to find the ones that dont have all of this priced in yet or have had a small dip. So again patience and ability to wait for the pop will pay off in 2021.

this is all just opinion good luck all.

Jim2007 · 29-11-2020 10:30AM

he doesnt understand why PSH is undervalued

First of all is it actually under valued or just his opinion? Remember he has something to sell. Next keep in mind that on average these vehicles have a return of about -15% and a median of about -35%, that means they need to be highly under valued if the investor is to manage the risk and get an appropriate return.

Be very careful with these type of vehicles.

One More Toy · 29-11-2020 11:24AM

RIGOLO wrote: »

We all have limited time, so this weekends research was not spent (yet) on upcoming earnings but in reading PSH Pershing Square Holdings (Bill Ackmans fund) June semi-annual report, all 47 pages, its a cliffhanger, I cant wait for the movie.

So Id begun building a position in the PSTH SPAC (thanks to ambergold who alerted me to it) and based on the report Im increasing that significantly in coming weeks. Its the largest blank cheque spac in operation 4 billion in investor funds , 12 billion was bid, and they shut it down after 2 days it was so oversubscribed. PSH have option to add 1-3 billion making it 5-7 billion in total.
Lots of rumours and public comment from Ackman himself saying he is having discussions with alot of well known private entities, airbnb, bloomberg and stripe. I think Stripe is the one he wants, PSH need to add a fintech to its portfolio, they are overweighted to restaurant and hospitality. And when you consider PSH made 40% gains even with major holdings in those sectors it shows how well managed it is as they hedged early for a shutdown and won big. Also PSH is in 101-105th position for FTSE100 rating, Ackman wants addition to FTSE100 and becoming an index funds target, he doesnt understand why PSH is undervalued and isnt already in, but Im betting he is betting on the PSTH deal when its announced getting them over the line.Also Ackman has reduced the normal SPAC founders shares and commissions, so its all benefiting the spac investor. Once the merger is announced I expect PSTH to increase considerably.

So its all about PATIENCE, we are entering a time of life and the seasons where foraging for food, stockpiling and hibernation will all pay dividends in the new year. Same applies to stocks and thats why Im gathering up all the PSTH nuts I can buy and expecting to feast on them come early spring at the latest.

BlackFriday e-commerce up 22% on last year.. should be a few stocks out there that will report amazing numbers for Q4 based on this, just need to find the ones that dont have all of this priced in yet or have had a small dip. So again patience and ability to wait for the pop will pay off in 2021.

this is all just opinion good luck all.

What's the ticker for this out of curiosity RIGOLO? Will follow it with interest

AmberGold · 29-11-2020 12:02PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

First of all is it actually under valued or just his opinion? Remember he has something to sell. Next keep in mind that on average these vehicles have a return of about -15% and a median of about -35%, that means they need to be highly under valued if the investor is to manage the risk and get an appropriate return.

Be very careful with these type of vehicles.

A fair amount of commentary out there currently re Ackmans fund (as opposed to his SPAC) being undervalued.

‘Pershing Square Holdings Very Attractive At 28.5% Discount To Understated NAV’

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390799-pershing-square-holdings-attractive-28_5-discount-to-understated-nav

Jim2007 · 29-11-2020 12:25PM

AmberGold wrote: »

A fair amount of commentary out there currently re Ackmans fund (as opposed to his SPAC) being undervalued.

‘Pershing Square Holdings Very Attractive At 28.5% Discount To Understated NAV’

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390799-pershing-square-holdings-attractive-28_5-discount-to-understated-nav

That does not mean it is undervalued, you need to examine the NAV itself.

RIGOLO · 29-11-2020 12:55PM

One More Toy wrote: »

What's the ticker for this out of curiosity RIGOLO? Will follow it with interest

PSH is Pershing Square Holdings - Ackmans main fund vehicle
PSTH is the SPAC blank cheque - one Im loading up on
PSTH-WT are warrants for the spac (there may be some trading restrictions on when you can sell these post a merger, open to correction)

Ackmans has had success with SPACs in the past his Justice Holding did a similar deal in 2012 with Burger King to form QSR and thats done consistently well for PSH since.

And yes Ackmans PSH is undervalued by any metric you want to take.
Heres just one ... FTSE 100 companies are trading at 1.5 times book value on average , whilst PSH is trading at a 20-30% discount. Thats undervalued!
but
Plenty companies are undervalued , doesnt mean they get the love, plenty companies are overvalued making millions billions for investors. The games rigged you just need to figure out if its worth holding and them eventually getting a justifiable re-rate on the sp.

Chinese EV companies will be releasing November delivery numbers this week, expecting some good figures for NIO, LI and XPENG in that order .. if one delivers then the others will follow, if all 3 beat expectatiosn we have another major legup

And just like that bitcoin back above 18k .

risk off is the motto for the end of 2020.

One More Toy · 29-11-2020 01:45PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

PSH is Pershing Square Holdings - Ackmans main fund vehicle
PSTH is the SPAC blank cheque - one Im loading up on
PSTH-WT are warrants for the spac (there may be some trading restrictions on when you can sell these post a merger, open to correction)

Ackmans has had success with SPACs in the past his Justice Holding did a similar deal in 2012 with Burger King to form QSR and thats done consistently well for PSH since.

And yes Ackmans PSH is undervalued by any metric you want to take.
Heres just one ... FTSE 100 companies are trading at 1.5 times book value on average , whilst PSH is trading at a 20-30% discount. Thats undervalued!
but
Plenty companies are undervalued , doesnt mean they get the love, plenty companies are overvalued making millions billions for investors. The games rigged you just need to figure out if its worth holding and them eventually getting a justifiable re-rate on the sp.

Chinese EV companies will be releasing November delivery numbers this week, expecting some good figures for NIO, LI and XPENG in that order .. if one delivers then the others will follow, if all 3 beat expectatiosn we have another major legup

And just like that bitcoin back above 18k .

risk off is the motto for the end of 2020.

I've invested in perishing the past couple of years (mostly after watching the documentary about herbakife) I'm up 93%

I believe the SPAC is called tontine (https://www.google.com/amp/s/markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/bill-ackman-spac-psth-pershing-tontine-targets-buy-blank-check-2020-10-1029665772)

I may join in on it for the ride. Thank you for your commentary as always

RIGOLO · 29-11-2020 03:58PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

First of all is it actually under valued or just his opinion? Remember he has something to sell. blah blah blah

One More Toy wrote: »

I've invested in perishing the past couple of years (mostly after watching the documentary about herbakife) I'm up 93%

I let everyone even noobs work out who is the genuine investor trader (wins some loses some but at least trades) and who is just taking up space on this thread and never makes a stock pick .....
going forward people can make up their own mind who they want to listen too

One More Toy · 29-11-2020 05:20PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

I let everyone even noobs work out who is the genuine investor trader (wins some loses some but at least trades) and who is just taking up space on this thread and never makes a stock pick .....
going forward people can make up their own mind who they want to listen too

In fairness I've only made my opinion available on one stock - Draftkings. And even then its a long term hold

I believe in Bill Ackman and want to join in on the SPAC ride for the first time

Treppen · 29-11-2020 09:08PM

One More Toy wrote: »

In fairness I've only made my opinion available on one stock - Draftkings. And even then its a long term hold

I believe in Bill Ackman and want to join in on the SPAC ride for the first time

We'll for a guy who took on the ''pyramid scheme" allegedly ... Of Herbalife. I'm in just four that. Even though he lost.

Betting On Zero is a good documentary I saw n Ackman's short attempt. Might be on Netflix or Prime or whatever.

Treppen · 29-11-2020 09:21PM

One More Toy wrote: »

What's the ticker for this out of curiosity RIGOLO? Will follow it with interest

Psth

AmberGold · 29-11-2020 09:51PM

Before you all start gushing over Ackmans short on Herbalife and how he was portrayed in Betting on Zero he didn’t exactly come up smelling of roses from the shenanigans that went on at Valeant. Good episode re this on Netflix dirty money.

All said the structure of PSTH is investor friendly, the right target and it should rocket. I sold out of his fund in the summer to pick up LMND but will look for a favourable entry.

Jim2007 · 29-11-2020 10:46PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

I let everyone even noobs work out who is the genuine investor trader (wins some loses some but at least trades) and who is just taking up space on this thread and never makes a stock pick .....
going forward people can make up their own mind who they want to listen too

Any random individual can pick up the paper tomorrow, pick a trending stock and have the exact same odds (50%) of doing as well you do. I don’t see why you see that as something special!

Over the past 30 years I knew I could not make money out of trading, but we could out of traders and we did.

cronos · 29-11-2020 11:29PM

What entry price are people looking at for psth?

How high's the risks? What are the risks?

jinish · 29-11-2020 11:45PM

following

LC134 · 30-11-2020 01:01AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

First of all is it actually under valued or just his opinion? Remember he has something to sell. Next keep in mind that on average these vehicles have a return of about -15% and a median of about -35%, that means they need to be highly under valued if the investor is to manage the risk and get an appropriate return.

Be very careful with these type of vehicles.

Hi - I’m completely new to the SPAC concept (but I like it), I’m surprised at that indicative return figure? Is there any general reason for this? Is it because they’ve a blank cheque they end up over paying for the acquisition etc.

I see the share price is up at 25.

30-11-2020 07:08AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Over the past 30 years I knew I could not make money out of trading, but we could out of traders and we did.

How do you make money out of traders? Selling a how to trade book/"course" ?!?

Mister Vain · 30-11-2020 09:12AM

Deleted User wrote: »

How do you make money out of traders? Selling a how to trade book/"course" ?!?

I assumed he meant something like copy trading on etoro.

Shedite27 · 30-11-2020 09:24AM

cronos wrote: »

What entry price are people looking at for psth?

How high's the risks? What are the risks?

Unlikely the price would ever go below $20 - I've only seen that in 1 of about 50 SPAC's I've been following this year.

Ackman is the sort of personality that won't want his SPAC to be seen as underwhelming. I'd say there's a very good chance it won't be Stripe, but I'd be confident he'll find a suitable target regardless

Stablelad123 · 30-11-2020 11:54AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Any random individual can pick up the paper tomorrow, pick a trending stock and have the exact same odds (50%) of doing as well you do. I don’t see why you see that as something special!

Over the past 30 years I knew I could not make money out of trading, but we could out of traders and we did.

Why do you insist on making such flippant remarks about traders? Yes it's clear you understand the benefits of investing LT. There are also times when ST trading outweighs them and we're currently in one of those times. The market is gifting us fast massive returns so even the most ardent long would be foolish not to take them.

I know some swing traders and they spend hours after work researching stocks and looking for trends to trade. They understand markets and know when to trade actively. This time next year they may not trade at all. These guys are smart.

It's no coincidence that this board has seen a big uptick in activity the last few months. Just like back in the 90's the hype will eventually die down and the traders will disappear. Until then it looks like your words are falling on deaf ears.

bcklschaps · 30-11-2020 12:18PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

PSH is Pershing Square Holdings - Ackmans main fund vehicle
PSTH is the SPAC blank cheque - one Im loading up on
PSTH-WT are warrants for the spac (there may be some trading restrictions on when you can sell these post a merger, open to correction)

Ackmans has had success with SPACs in the past his Justice Holding did a similar deal in 2012 with Burger King to form QSR and thats done consistently well for PSH since.

And yes Ackmans PSH is undervalued by any metric you want to take.
Heres just one ... FTSE 100 companies are trading at 1.5 times book value on average , whilst PSH is trading at a 20-30% discount. Thats undervalued!
but
Plenty companies are undervalued , doesnt mean they get the love, plenty companies are overvalued making millions billions for investors. The games rigged you just need to figure out if its worth holding and them eventually getting a justifiable re-rate on the sp.

Chinese EV companies will be releasing November delivery numbers this week, expecting some good figures for NIO, LI and XPENG in that order .. if one delivers then the others will follow, if all 3 beat expectatiosn we have another major legup

And just like that bitcoin back above 18k .

risk off is the motto for the end of 2020.

Whats the significance of FTSE100 ? PSTH is listed on NYSE.

AmberGold · 30-11-2020 12:55PM

bcklschaps wrote: »

Whats the significance of FTSE100 ? PSTH is listed on NYSE.

PSHZF, his fund as opposed to SPAC is listed on the LSE.

bcklschaps · 30-11-2020 01:10PM

AmberGold wrote: »

PSHZF, his fund as opposed to SPAC is listed on the LSE.

Right, thanks.

RIGOLO · 30-11-2020 01:40PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Any random individual can pick up the paper tomorrow, pick a trending stock and have the exact same odds (50%) of doing as well you do. I don’t see why you see that as something special!

Over the past 30 years I knew I could not make money out of trading, but we could out of traders and we did.

finally me and jimbo agree on something...:D

I knew he wasnt a trader or investor and couldnt make money in the markets,
that explains why he never picks a stock in any of his posts.. at least now he admits it, so some progress.

okay everyone back to the markets and investing, jim will be back shortly with a nothing comment no doubt but at least now we know how he has performed in the GREATEST BULL RUN IN HISTORY , he didnt cos he admits he could not make money out of trading...

30-11-2020 01:50PM

Probably the worst day of the year to sell and make a gain from a CGT POV. Just saying

And may all your problems be as good.

retalivity · 30-11-2020 02:13PM

Arcadia group about to collapse, the online retailers are seeing a boost because of this. Probably have plenty of room left to run with them yet.
Im already in ASOS, its up 3% today to 46.39, Bohoo up 6%, JD Sports up 7%.
Coupled with Christmas coming up, shops closed, even more people moving to online clothes shopping, the quarterly numbers for these could see a huge boost for these in the new year

outonawing · 30-11-2020 02:35PM

Any more experienced investors looked at Franklin Wireless Corp FKWL?

Their recent quarter results are impressive, company looks undervalued to my novice eye.

DutchYurt · 30-11-2020 02:36PM

DutchYurt wrote: »

Compass pathways has popped up on my radar again who are developing psilocybin therapy to treat depression. I think it was mentioned here before.

Their IPO was in Sept and the price seems to have settled around the mid 30 range, but of course still early days.

Going to keep an eye on it for now but this could potentially be the stock that you lose your money on or get a 10x return.

Up 19% since posted and another 12% pre-market today

Take Your Pants Off · 30-11-2020 02:59PM

ASAN is still undervalued compared to its competitors. It will surpass 35 in a few weeks and will smash the next earnings. Similar to PLTR they direct listed in October and did not not perform well.

Yes I am aware, Asana is a basic project management platform. Companies can literally develop an in house projects management system in weeks...

The founders of Asana were both interviewed on The Social Dilemma documentary film on Netflix and I quite like and share their version for future working.

Personally will probably start a small long position on it this today and see how it goes.

Share Picks 2020

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