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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

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Comments

  • #4262
    breezy1985
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,565 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    seamus wrote: »
    One article I found said that there were 5,200 military ballot in Georgia in 2016.

    So based on that, and Biden's current 900-vote lead, Trump would need to take about 60% of the military vote. 60% is about the amount of support Republicans have in the military, but Trump's popularity specifically has taken a nosedive over the last two years.

    It should also be remembered that Biden's support of the military is strong and the family name is strong in the military through his son. So he would be expected to pick up more military votes than someone like Clinton.


    Would be ironic if it was the army who stopped Trump


  • #4263
    Big Pussy Bonpensiero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,794 ✭✭✭Big Pussy Bonpensiero


    Nody wrote: »
    Highly doubt they are tearing themselves apart; they will split in two factions let's call them Pence (traditional Reps ala Bush era) and Trump (populist say anything era) but both will unite when it comes to beating the Democrats.

    But the point is that the latter won't want to put up with the former, and people that vote for the traditional Reps will become disenfranchised by their blatant corruption. It's coming to a head now for the Republican Party and difficult decisions lie ahead.


  • #4264
    paul71
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭paul71


    seamus wrote: »
    One article I found said that there were 5,200 military ballot in Georgia in 2016.

    So based on that, and Biden's current 900-vote lead, Trump would need to take about 60% of the military vote. 60% is about the amount of support Republicans have in the military, but Trump's popularity specifically has taken a nosedive over the last two years.

    It should also be remembered that Biden's support of the military is strong and the family name is strong in the military through his son. So he would be expected to pick up more military votes than someone like Clinton.

    Yes, Spur heel vs Beau Biden.


  • #4265
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Patser wrote: »
    Is there any chance Trump could try hold out til then, and try something mad to engineer Faithless electors? Obviously if Georgia stays blue, and PA flips as expected it's impossible. But if it was to stay Biden around 270, Trump in 260s could he try something mad and hold out til then, make the Electoral college actually vote him out
    He could, but virtually all of the states he would need to do this, have laws that prevent that from happening.


  • #4266
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,947 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Will Biden have his winning speech tonight?


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  • #4267
    Patser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Patser


    seamus wrote: »
    He could, but virtually all of the states he would need to do this, have laws that prevent that from happening.

    I just can't see him conceding, he's gone too far on the fraud allegations front. So I can see escalating legal challenges right up the Electoral College meeting, and that's 6/7 weeks away. And that allows Trump time for all sorts of craziness.


  • #4268
    Mellor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,377 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    8-10 wrote: »
    Republicans nearly certainly get the vote in that scenario of 269 tie, don't think the Dems have a chance. The Senate however might also be undecided and they vote the VP in a tie. But that would also likely end up Republican.

    Spare a thought for a scenario where Republican house votes in Trump and a Democratic Senate picks a Biden/Warren/Obama/Harris as his VP for the craic
    Not sure why you think Dems wouldn’t have a chance in house.

    Reps control the senate. And they have to choose from running VPs. So Biden, Obama not eligible.


  • #4269
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,930 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    MattS1 wrote: »
    Will Biden have his winning speech tonight?


    Only if he conclusively wins PA, if he still only has Georgia its too close to call yet


  • #4270
    Mellor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,377 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    seamus wrote: »
    He could, but virtually all of the states he would need to do this, have laws that prevent that from happening.
    All the states???
    If it’s a 268-270 split. He only needs 1 faithless elector to steal it. Plenty of states where that’s possible. There were 7 in 2016


  • #4271
    paul71
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭paul71


    Patser wrote: »
    I just can't see him conceding, he's gone too far on the fraud allegations front. So I can see escalating legal challenges right up the Electoral College meeting, and that's 6/7 weeks away. And that allows Trump time for all sorts of craziness.

    I am counting on it, it will be lovely to watch him futilely banging his head against a legal wall and throwing childish tantrums.


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  • #4272
    everlast75
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,023 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    He reminds me of a villain in a movie who you think is finished.

    He has to be, but then he rears his head again.

    It ain't over until you see the body... figuratively speaking of course.

    That's how I feel right now...

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • #4273
    EltonJohn69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,804 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    How are people shocked/surprised by what Trump said last night ??? He was saying the exact same thing about the 2016 results, he said Clinton didn’t win the popular vote, that they were all fake votes


  • #4274
    fiveleavesleft
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 222 ✭✭fiveleavesleft


    everlast75 wrote: »
    He reminds me of a villain in a movie who you think is finished.

    He has to be, but then he rears his head again.

    It ain't over until you see the body... figuratively speaking of course.

    That's how I feel right now...

    He could be a Michael Myers though.:D


  • #4275
    peteeeed
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,563 ✭✭✭✭peteeeed


    i think at this stage kim jong un is saying 'that guy is crazy '


  • #4276
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,409 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    EltonJohn69 wrote: »
    How are people shocked/surprised by what Trump said last night ??? He was saying the exact same thing about the 2016 results, he said Clinton didn’t win the popular vote, that they were all fake votes
    Yeah. He's been trying to undermine the voting systems since the start. There was no reason to believe that he'd stop now. Especially when he's losing. It was the 'strategy' he had in place before the 2016 election when he thought he was going to lose. And of course the popular vote loss really rankled with him.


  • #4277
    All_in_Flynn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭All_in_Flynn


    Looks like the hammer is going to fall today for Trump.

    That presser last night will go down in history. Surreal stuff. I couldn't believe what I was watching.

    Can you imagine how Trump is feeling this morning!? He is the most powerful man on the planet and its all about to be taken away from him. He is not used to this feeling and I'd say he is hurting badly. Warms the cockles frankly.

    I posted here before the election to say it was clear that Trump and his team were stacking the deck. They were always going cry foul. I'm just taken aback at how far they are going with it.

    I think though, once Pennsylvania is flipped and beyond doubt then there is no escape for him even through the courts.

    Today looks like it will be a good day.


  • #4278
    dogbert27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭dogbert27


    circadian wrote: »
    Had a quick look at the recount rules for the remaining states. The best one I seen was for Nevada. You can call a recount no matter the margin, but you have to put down a deposit for the cost of the recount. If you lose the recount then you have to pay for it in full.

    Not a chance Trump would pay for it, he might try to do it without paying, but not a chance he'll actually pay if he went for a recount there.

    He'd pay for it with tax payer money the same way he's charged the tax payer for his use of his own hotel.


  • #4279
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,409 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    All_in_Flynn wrote: »
    Looks like the hammer is going to fall today for Trump.

    That presser last night will go down in history. Surreal stuff. I couldn't believe what I was watching.

    Can you imagine how Trump is feeling this morning!? He is the most powerful man on the planet and its all about to be taken away from him. He is not used to this feeling and I'd say he is hurting badly. Warms the cockles frankly.

    I posted here before the election to say it was clear that Trump and his team were stacking the deck. They were always going cry foul. I'm just taken aback at how far they are going with it.

    I think though, once Pennsylvania is flipped and beyond doubt then there is no escape for him even through the courts.

    Today looks like it will be a good day.
    He has other motivations too. There are a raft of criminal and civil cases lined up for him to face once he's out of the security of the Oval office.


  • #4280
    Big Pussy Bonpensiero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,794 ✭✭✭Big Pussy Bonpensiero


    It's a matter of hours before PA is called for Biden, and that will put the final nail in Trump's coffin.


  • #4281
    jasonb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,406 ✭✭✭jasonb


    Well, I wish they'd get a move on in PA, the vote numbers there haven't changed since 6:30am.


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  • #4282
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,574 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: Please don't just paste tweets here. Post deleted.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #4283
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Mellor wrote: »
    All the states???
    If it’s a 268-270 split. He only needs 1 faithless elector to steal it. Plenty of states where that’s possible. There were 7 in 2016
    A 268/270 split at this stage would need AZ, PA & GA to go Trump's way.

    That would leave Nevada as the faithless elector to target. It's not possible in Nevada.

    His only hope really would be that he keeps PA *and* gets NV and AZ back on his side. Then he could get faithless electors in GA to flip.

    As it stands, if it's a 268/270 split where Trum has PA & GA, there are no practical states where a faithless elector would/can support him. The only other blue states it's legal are deep blue states like NY or IL.

    Unless there are some major odd shifts in states such as PA & GA going to Biden and NV & AZ going to Trump, the faithless electors thing is a non-runner.


  • #4284
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mellor wrote: »
    All the states???
    If it’s a 268-270 split. He only needs 1 faithless elector to steal it. Plenty of states where that’s possible. There were 7 in 2016

    Haven't many states since legislated to prevent that happening again?


  • #4285
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,746 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    seamus wrote: »
    That would leave Nevada as the faithless elector to target. It's not possible in Nevada.

    A faithless elector could come from anywhere.

    But most states now have significant penalties for them, and the Supreme Court has already upheld the states right to do so.


  • #4286
    Retr0gamer
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 53,224 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer


    Would love as Trump leaves the White House in January that the FBI and IRS pick him up and throw him in a paddywagon before he gets to his motrocade. Would be a delicious cherry on top.


  • #4287
    paul71
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭paul71


    Retr0gamer wrote: »
    Would love as Trump leaves the White House in January that the FBI and IRS pick him up and throw him in a paddywagon before he gets to his motrocade. Would be a delicious cherry on top.

    I know ex presidents get a secret service security detail. Will it mean mean his agents will have to sleep in a cell with him too?


  • #4288
    droidus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    Its done. Trump is a dead man walking.

    Biden will win with PA and GA at minimum. NV and AZ very likely. The margin will be too big for legal challenge or faithless electors.


  • #4289
    breezy1985
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,565 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Mellor wrote: »
    All the states???
    If it’s a 268-270 split. He only needs 1 faithless elector to steal it. Plenty of states where that’s possible. There were 7 in 2016


    Ya but Im pretty sure they only pull this as a symbolic gesture when someone has clearly won. I dont think anyone would be brave enough to try if the result was on the line


  • #4290
    alchemist33
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,969 ✭✭✭✭alchemist33


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    He has other motivations too. There are a raft of criminal and civil cases lined up for him to face once he's out of the security of the Oval office.

    I've said it before, but I'm convinced he'll claim he has dementia within a year. It'll be easy enough for him to find a doctor who will say he's unfit to stand trial. But he'll still have control of his assets and his twitter account, if he's allowed have one


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  • #4291
    MJohnston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,724 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    paul71 wrote: »
    I asked about overseas military votes and when they arrive/are counted earlier I did not get a clear answer, apparently there are 8,000 in Georgia which will make difference, they wont make a difference in PN.

    Just catching up on the thread and maybe this has been answered since, but the deal with the remaining overseas/military votes is that the ballots were issued but have not yet been received. There is a deadline of something like 5pm today for them to arrive, and presumably they’d also have to be postmarked before Nov 3rd.

    In other words: there’s nothing there to count yet, and those 8000 may never even have been returned.


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