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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

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Comments

  • #4082
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,909 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Nate Silver basically just called the election (read the first comment under his tweet):


    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324534164826296323


  • #4083
    murpho999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,929 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    John King is seriously impressive.

    His presentation and knowledge is fantastic.


  • #4084
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,099 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Hannity on Fox now and it's hilarious. Scray and delusional but funny all the same.


  • #4085
    letowski
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭letowski


    If AZ breaks the way Maricopa County did for a finish (56.1%/42%) for the remaining 310k votes

    Trump 173,910
    Biden 130,200

    So Trump would gain 43,710 but Biden leads by 46,257. So Biden would win by 2.5k.

    But obviously they are all not coming from Maricopa. Some votes still have to come for Coconino County, a decent size county and more blue leaning than Maricopa. Some smaller red counties left too but not much.

    I think Biden will hang on, only just.


  • #4086
    ~Rebel~
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,830 ✭✭✭✭~Rebel~


    BlitzKrieg wrote: »
    In terms of numbers with the current numbers in popular vote doesnt this mean both candidates are now the two most popular candidates ever to run?

    Trump has actually beaten Obama in terms of popular vote now? Maybe that will finally soothe his ego since it was his obsession of being better then Obama that set all this off in the first place

    Yup, at the end of his divisive 4 year term, it's the perfect example of just how polarising he is as a person.

    Biden as a candidate is largely just a proxy for 'Not-Trump', so in a way Trump is personally driving the two highest voting campaigns in history - for, and against, himself.

    Subscribe to save Boards.ie from closing down: The Bad News

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  • #4087
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,890 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    letowski wrote: »
    If AZ breaks the way Maricopa County did for a finish (56.1%/42%) for the remaining 310k votes

    Trump 173,910
    Biden 130,200

    So Trump would gain 43,710 but Biden leads by 46,257. So Biden would win by 2.5k.

    But obviously they are all not coming from Maricopa. Some votes still have to come for Coconino County, a decent size county and more blue leaning than Maricopa. Some smaller red counties left too but not much.

    I think Biden will hang on, only just.

    You mean they won't stay counting long enough for Trump.


  • #4088
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,909 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    sdanseo wrote: »
    CNN mentioned approx. 15,000 votes left in GA.

    With a gap of 2,500, that means Biden needs just under 60% of what's left.

    But essentially guaranteed a recount and not sure how any later arriving incl. Military votes will affect that.

    Surely then even a couple of thousand of late military votes will put it back in Trump's column?


  • #4089
    letowski
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭letowski


    Water John wrote: »
    You mean they won't stay counting long enough for Trump.

    Yeah I think he will run out of votes eventually. Unless Maricopa is seeing higher rates of 'late' early votes leaning more red. But I doubt it.


  • #4090
    letowski
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭letowski


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Surely then even a couple of thousand of late military votes will put it back in Trump's column?

    Hard to know, alot of people that join the military are from the black community, especially from the Savannah area. I don't think there would be enough to tilt it back.


  • #4091
    letowski
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭letowski


    It was a big call by Fox News, and I'd say they are sweating a bit now. But even if AZ says blue, its still doesn't change the fact that Fox News and AP called AZ too early.

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324537699802513414


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  • #4092
    letowski
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭letowski


    letowski wrote: »
    If AZ breaks the way Maricopa County did for a finish (56.1%/42%) for the remaining 310k votes

    Trump 173,910
    Biden 130,200

    So Trump would gain 43,710 but Biden leads by 46,257. So Biden would win by 2.5k.

    But obviously they are all not coming from Maricopa. Some votes still have to come for Coconino County, a decent size county and more blue leaning than Maricopa. Some smaller red counties left too but not much.

    I think Biden will hang on, only just.


    There is actually just 280k votes left in AZ. Next drop is tomorrow afternoon.

    Bed time I think!

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324539574190809088


  • #4093
    Exclamation Marc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,019 ✭✭✭✭Exclamation Marc


    Trump lead in GA down to 1902 now.

    Edit: GA not AZ


  • #4094
    dark crystal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,962 ✭✭✭✭dark crystal


    Trump and Biden now tied in Georgia.


  • #4095
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,643 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Looking good for Biden in Georgia.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324537543824723969


  • #4096
    Saganist
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,335 ✭✭✭Saganist


    letowski wrote: »
    There is actually just 280k votes left in AZ. Next drop is tomorrow afternoon.

    Bed time I think!

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324539574190809088

    Why did Fox call this so early ? It was one of their first calls.


  • #4097
    signostic
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,888 ✭✭✭signostic


    With Georgia likely now to go to Biden, the best Trump can get is a draw?


  • #4098
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,643 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    signostic wrote: »
    With Georgia likely now to go to Biden, the best Trump can get is a draw?

    Yeah, he can't get to 270 if Georgia goes blue.


  • #4099
    Exclamation Marc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,019 ✭✭✭✭Exclamation Marc


    Trump 4129
    Biden 10841

    Monroe County PA

    Lead now down to 42k


  • #4100
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,890 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Strange it's Guy Fawkes night and Trump just blew up a powder keg in the WH.


  • #4101
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,909 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Saganist wrote: »
    Why did Fox call this so early ? It was one of their first calls.

    Most of the votes left to count were in a county which has 2/3 the population and is centred on Phoenix so Biden should be fine if most of the votes left to count are from there.


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  • #4102
    Canice Picklington
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 64 ✭✭Canice Picklington


    The new Trump song

    Trump man, yes, it's time to step down
    I said, Trump man, you've been beat to the ground
    I said, Trump man, yeah your pants they look brown
    You might need a new Trump nappy
    Trump man, there's a place you can go
    I said, Trump man, prison locked on your own
    You can stay there, and I'm sure you will find
    Many ways to have a good time

    Don, Don, Don, Don, Don

    It's fun to stay to watch Biden win PA
    It's all because you lost, Biden PA
    It's a beautiful thing for the world to enjoy
    He got rid of you good ol' boys

    Trump man, you killed Epstein somehow
    I said Trump man, Russia can't save you now
    I said Trump man, yeah your wife is a cow
    Now for once the world is happy

    Don, Don, Don, Don, Don

    It's all because we see Biden win PA
    It's what we're waiting for, Biden PA
    He inflicted defeat, for the world to enjoy
    He got rid of you and your boys


  • #4103
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Exclamation Marc wrote: »
    Trump 4129
    Biden 10841

    Monroe County PA

    Lead now down to 35k (albeit CNN haven't amended distance so may have misapplied that myself). Either way, vote numbers are correct.

    Showing 42k on NYT

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • #4104
    Exclamation Marc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,019 ✭✭✭✭Exclamation Marc


    Brian? wrote: »
    Showing 42k on NYT

    Yeah I think I subtracted the 6k from 42 but the 42 reflected the 6k already taken. Whoops.

    But that was more so fraud on CNNs part. I didn't see them make that calculation so it not valid.


  • #4105
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,890 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Most of the votes left to count were in a county which has 2/3 the population and is centred on Phoenix so Biden should be fine if most of the votes left to count are from there.

    But in contrast to most because they are used to mail in ballots in fact GOP voters use it. They drop them off in boxes the day or two before the election. Fox may not have had the local knowledge.


  • #4106
    banie01
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,025 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    Trump not wanting to count votes where he's losing but wanting to keep counting where he's winning is giving me serious headache!

    Can we just call it his Tally-ban?


  • #4107
    murpho999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,929 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    Fox News now getting behind Trump and the fraudulent election angle.

    Unbelievable to watch


  • #4108
    Headshot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 56,089 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Question with Steve Bannon awful horrible and shameful attack on Dr Fauci could he be taken to court?

    He basically threatened Dr Fauci life


  • #4109
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,643 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    MSNBC say Democrats confident they will move ahead in PA between 9am and 10am our time.

    Think that's my cue to get some sleep and set the alarm. Night folks.


  • #4110
    murpho999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,929 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    Fox just said that the burden is on Joe Biden to prove that the election was a fair and democratic one. Unreal.


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  • #4111
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 429 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    murpho999 wrote: »
    Fox just said that the burden is on Joe Biden to prove that the election was a fair and democratic one. Unreal.

    The same Fox News that said Obama was personally responsible for Benghazi and ran it as a main story for a few months on end yet never blaming Trump once for the Covid death rate.


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