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Trump vs Biden 2020, And the winner is.......... (pt 4) Read OP

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Comments

  • #2552
    vojiwox
    Closed Accounts Posts: 416 ✭✭vojiwox


    Anything to be said for Trump declaring victory again?


  • #2553
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,034 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    humberklog wrote: »
    Right, went to sleep at 4a.m thinking it was easily Trump's. I've been flat out busy until now and offline/radio and can't figure out what the state of play is.

    Anyone willing to give a brief synopsis of the present state of play?

    Trump is having a tantrum, crying, banging his little fists and screaming about it not being fair and warning he's going to tell his mommy, Suprema Courtney.


  • #2554
    duffman13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,247 ✭✭✭duffman13


    Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »
    THey take it into account, but it's not a massive influence. If it was it would be too easy to influence markets.

    Its the biggest single influencer in fluid markets like this one. Statistics and polls would be used to set the market up but when you get to a situation with the level of funds in play, money placed is what affects the odds most. And markets are easily influenced if you have a load of money.

    To be perfectly honest, the betting market for this is a fine example. Predictions for weeks of Biden taking some states late in the day. So this outcome isn't unexpected but a flurry of bets from a few interested parties who then let the market continue the trend. Original stakera then bet out the opposite side locking in a nice profit. The swings in betting are huge over the last few hours


  • #2555
    Enquiring
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,116 ✭✭✭Enquiring


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Cash out option is still there, not looking as healthy but I'll hold my nerve, can easily swing again if Biden doesn't carry Michigan.

    What's the cash out amount now?


  • #2556
    Smee_Again
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭Smee_Again


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    The majority of those are Detroit which will heavily go to Biden.

    Yes, Wayne County at 64% counted and Oakland County at 85% mean a lot of votes for Biden still to be counted. Biden could increase his lead by 150,000 votes from Wayne County alone based on current split and tally count.


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  • #2557
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    What most people don't understand is that the election is only the very first step in the selection of a President.


    If the President concedes then the other steps become little more than rubber-stamping. That is why most people are not aware of them. But that initial election is really only an input into some of the next ones. Some of the later mechanisms are under no obligation to even acknowledge the vote (or the later EC votes for that matter)



    If there is no conceding, then people will be in for an education over the next few months!

    no one will dispute the results except trump. if he refuses to leave he will literally be removed by the army. question is, does he want to be remembered for that for this rest of history?


  • #2558
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    There not though the trend is towards Trump. It's very tight but he'll nurse Michigan across the line I think.

    It's very tight. I agree.

    Did you manage to cash out or are you riding this baby until the end?
    Edit: just seen your reply. Fair play!


  • #2559
    jill_valentine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭jill_valentine


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Is Detroit for Biden, would have put them in the Trump camp.

    My friends from Detroit are saying it's very much Dem.


  • #2560
    DrPhilG
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,896 ✭✭✭✭DrPhilG


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    There not though the trend is towards Trump. It's very tight but he'll nurse Michigan across the line I think.

    How in God's name is the trend towards Trump?

    He was up by a mile in Michigan and now almost level. At 10am (our time) he had a 5% lead, now its down to 0.2%.


  • #2561
    Timmaay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,396 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    vojiwox wrote: »
    Anything to be said for Trump declaring victory again?

    Anything to be said for another mass Ted?


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  • #2562
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,417 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Is Detroit for Biden, would have put them in the Trump camp.
    Very much vote strongly democrat traditionally.
    The votes counted from Detroit so far have been massively in favour of Biden.


  • #2563
    paleoperson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,522 ✭✭✭paleoperson


    froog wrote: »
    no one will dispute the results except trump. if he refuses to leave he will literally be removed by the army. question is, does he want to be remembered for that for this rest of history?

    Knowing Trump - probably.


  • #2564
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    He has not tweeted in 6 hours. Something is up. Normally he is firing tweets first thing at this time of the morning.


  • #2565
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,448 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Is Detroit for Biden, would have put them in the Trump camp.

    Detroit for Trump?? :D Ah come on. 67%-31% Biden at the moment with about 300k more to count would add 200k to Biden's pile and 100k to Trump.


  • #2566
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,034 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    vojiwox wrote: »
    Anything to be said for Trump declaring victory again?

    Yes, it would have some comedy value.


  • #2567
    RoryMac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,592 ✭✭✭RoryMac


    Trump extends lead in Michigan to 24k, not over yet!


  • #2568
    Tij da feen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 598 ✭✭✭Tij da feen


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Is Detroit for Biden, would have put them in the Trump camp.

    Wayne county in 2016 voted heavily for Clinton:
    Trump - 228k vs 519k - Clinton


  • #2569
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,448 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    He has not tweeted in 6 hours. Something is up. Normally he is firing tweets first thing at this time of the morning.

    He knows the game is up or at least his people do.


  • #2570
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,417 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Cash out option is still there, not looking as healthy but I'll hold my nerve, can easily swing again if Biden doesn't carry Michigan.
    Honestly I would take it, Michigan is really looking to go to Biden pretty clearly at this stage.
    But hey up to you


  • #2571
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,675 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    DrPhilG wrote: »
    How in God's name is the trend towards Trump?

    He was up by a mile in Michigan and now almost level. At 10am (our time) he had a 5% lead, now its down to 0.2%.

    Very much trending away from Trump it has to be said.


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  • #2572
    lab man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,837 ✭✭✭lab man


    Wats the state of play at work so cant see wats happening


  • #2573
    uptherebels
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,079 ✭✭✭uptherebels


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    He has not tweeted in 6 hours. Something is up. Normally he is firing tweets first thing at this time of the morning.

    Probably ready getting ready for the court challenges. Or he is preparing the biggest tantrum tweet in the history of social media


  • #2574
    drunkmonkey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,044 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Enquiring wrote: »
    What's the cash out amount now?

    €365, would mean taking a €135 hit.

    While typing it's went from €330 to €365..


  • #2575
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,034 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    He has not tweeted in 6 hours. Something is up. Normally he is firing tweets first thing at this time of the morning.

    He's got Covid for real, this time?


  • #2576
    Cody montana
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,585 ✭✭✭Cody montana


    Is it too late to find another Hunter Biden laptop?


  • #2577
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    froog wrote: »
    no one will dispute the results except trump. if he refuses to leave he will literally be removed by the army. question is, does he want to be remembered for that for this rest of history?




    No, you don't understand the process. I'm not being smart. Most don't.



    If it comes to it, it ends up in the houses and they choose the President. They are not choosing who won the election. They are choosing the President. Most reasonable people would assume that they would try to implement the "will of the people" if it came to that. But they are under no obligation to do so!


    When a candidate concedes, then all these other steps become a formality and a rubber stamping. When there is no conceding - then you are in uncharted territory. Even when Fl went to the Supreme Court for Bush vs. Gore, once that judgement was announced, it was conceded.


  • #2578
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,717 ✭ [Deleted User]


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Is Detroit for Biden, would have put them in the Trump camp.

    This alone demonstrates that putting such a large bet on something you seemingly know very little about probably wasn't the wisest decision.


  • #2579
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    lab man wrote: »
    Wats the state of play at work so cant see wats happening




    Biden
    224



    Trump
    213


  • #2580
    accensi0n
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,966 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    Pennsilvania seems unlikely for Biden.
    60/40 split of remaining votes still has Trump winning by 250k.
    Using stats from CBS.


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  • #2581
    Smee_Again
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭Smee_Again


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    There not though the trend is towards Trump. It's very tight but he'll nurse Michigan across the line I think.

    Disagree, there's a lot of votes to count in Wayne County (c. 350,000) and Biden is winning there 67-32 so that gives him an uplift on Trump of over 100,000 votes.

    Most red counties seem to be already reporting 98% of the vote, so not much room to make up the difference.


This discussion has been closed.
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