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Trump vs Biden 2020, And the winner is.......... (pt 4) Read OP

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Comments

  • #1532
    c0rk3r
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,256 ✭✭✭c0rk3r


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Paddy Power offering me a grand to cash out since last night, I'll hold on for rest Paddy thank you very much..

    You got a screenshot ?


  • #1533
    Akesh
    Closed Accounts Posts: 315 ✭✭Akesh


    Still way too early to call but I think some people are wishful thinking that every postal ballot is going to be a blue ticket for Biden.

    Regardless of what happens now, it's a terrible result for the Democrats to potentially lose to Trump twice. Of course the deplorables will be blamed but Biden should have campaigned on more than "I'm not Trump". I suspect lessons won't be learned again.


  • #1534
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    DrPhilG wrote: »
    Question...

    Everyone seems to be counting that Pennsylvania will go to Biden because of the 2.2m mail ballots.

    But from what I read here overnight, the breakdown of those votes by registration is approx:
    1.2m - Dem
    600k - Rep
    400k - Ind

    Well first of all, Trump leads by 675k. If all the registered Dems vote as expected, they lead by 525k. But then the 600k Rep votes if they back their man takes them back into the lead. It falls to the 400k independent votes.

    And the elephant in the room is Biden's views on fracking. Will that sway the independent vote towards Trump? Could it even swing some of the Dem registered voters against Joe?

    Biden has no chance in Pennsylvania. Your logic is correct.

    CNN have just admitted it. Expect RTE to admit it as well in around a week.


  • #1535
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    FhSi1wk.png


  • #1536
    pjohnson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,070 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    Dressoutlet wrote: »
    Can someone explain, in layman terms for the dumb blonde posting (me, I'm not dumb, just using a stereotype) why the election is not won by votes.
    Theres 5 million votes. One person gets 251 million votes, the other gets 249 million votes, then whoever has the most votes win.
    Why do they do it different states? And not the whole Country

    Country folks opinions are more important than city folk.


    Its a mad system tbf.


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  • #1537
    CharlesMartel
    Closed Accounts Posts: 95 ✭✭CharlesMartel


    Danno wrote: »
    If Trump is ahead by 6,000 votes and there are only 5,000 left to count. Why bother?

    So the demoratic officials in a democrat sub election district can find 2000 Biden votes stuffed down the back of the sofa, or look at the spoiled votes and declare some of em for Biden


  • #1538
    Bonniedog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,665 ✭✭✭Bonniedog


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    None of the big US stations are calling Arianna yet. Where are people on here seeing that?

    Because it was called hours ago in an attempt to put off Republicans who were still queuing.


  • #1539
    Dr. Bre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,841 ✭✭✭Dr. Bre


    MAGA!


  • #1540
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I hope you'll be ok when the Donald loses because of the postal service.

    Haha . Must be near the last straw to be clutched

    Mod

    1 day forum ban for breach of threadban.


  • #1541
    Overheal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    DrPhilG wrote: »
    Question...

    Everyone seems to be counting that Pennsylvania will go to Biden because of the 2.2m mail ballots.

    But from what I read here overnight, the breakdown of those votes by registration is approx:
    1.2m - Dem
    600k - Rep
    400k - Ind

    Well first of all, Trump leads by 675k. If all the registered Dems vote as expected, they lead by 525k. But then the 600k Rep votes if they back their man takes them back into the lead. It falls to the 400k independent votes.

    And the elephant in the room is Biden's views on fracking. Will that sway the independent vote towards Trump? Could it even swing some of the Dem registered voters against Joe?

    That's the great unanswered question.


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  • #1542
    paw patrol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭paw patrol


    hooray for Darth Cheeto


    This is looking great


  • #1543
    AlphaDelta1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 477 ✭✭AlphaDelta1


    Liberals in meltdown


  • #1544
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Overheal wrote: »
    That's the great unanswered question.

    It's why bookies have Trump at 2/5 to win.


  • #1545
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Dressoutlet wrote: »
    Can someone explain, in layman terms for the dumb blonde posting (me, I'm not dumb, just using a stereotype) why the election is not won by votes.
    Theres 5 million votes. One person gets 251 million votes, the other gets 249 million votes, then whoever has the most votes win.
    Why do they do it different states? And not the whole Country

    Each state gets a certain amount of electoral college votes based on a census held every 10 years. So if you win a state you get all the votes of that state and not a proportion based on how much of the vote you won in the state. So in Florida trump gets all 29 electoral votes even though he only just won it. Biden gets nothing though he got close to winning it. The first to 270 wins.


  • #1546
    Cheerful Spring2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,705 ✭✭✭Cheerful Spring2


    Akesh wrote: »
    Still way too early to call but I think some people are wishful thinking that every postal ballot is going to be a blue ticket for Biden.

    Regardless of what happens now, it's a terrible result for the Democrats to potentially lose to Trump twice. Of course the deplorables will be blamed but Biden should have campaigned on more than "I'm not Trump". I suspect lessons won't be learned again.

    This just goes to show you how far media personalities and pollsters will lie to get their candidate over the line. Hope this a wake up call for people.

    Percentages for Biden winning pre Election made no sense, whole many people believed it.


  • #1547
    Pa ElGrande
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,750 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    If you want to create your own fantasy US presidential election map here you go.

    If you want to see how things stand in the US right about now here you go

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • #1548
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    Bonniedog wrote: »
    Ooh, the liberals are throwing a strop!

    Well, banning people and cancelling other views in the States didn't work for you did it?

    Sums up the support base:rolleyes:


  • #1549
    8-10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,872 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    Yeah I think Trump wins PA now

    WI, AZ, NV and MI still up in the air

    I expect GA and NC go to Trump but there's an outside chance.

    I think Trump will win but still top many unknown given how close it is and how low reporting numbers are in some key counties


  • #1550
    votecounts
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭votecounts


    Trump back into 2/5


  • #1551
    Fakediamond
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,055 ✭✭✭Fakediamond


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    The likes of Nebraska and the Dakotas have three people in them. Very small parts of the electoral college

    Yes I know, but it still looks shocking, especially when you see big states like Florida showing red. I know it’s not over yet, but it’s concerning...


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  • #1552
    el Fenomeno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,570 ✭✭✭el Fenomeno


    Overheal wrote: »
    That's the great unanswered question.

    Silly question, but mail in votes just counted last or what's the deal?


  • #1553
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Overheal wrote: »
    Don't listen to the pollsters, listen to the statisticians:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/

    At no point was Trump favorite to win. If you can do no better than a 66% prediction and get it wrong it's a pretty pointless hobby tbh.


  • #1554
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    landofthetree wrote: »
    CNN are starting to admit it's looking bad for Biden.

    CNN’s
    @JohnKingCNN
    just admitted that Joe Biden needs to win 75% of the remaining votes to overtake President Trump in Pennsylvania.

    Even went as far as saying “that’s a steep hill.”

    He actually needs to win more than that, probably 80% mimimum which is not going to happen. At best he'll win 60%. Pennsylvania is gone. And Georgia doesn't look much better.


  • #1555
    Overheal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    el Fenomeno wrote: »
    Silly question, but mail in votes just counted last or what's the deal?

    Every state is different. Florida count theirs as they come in so we have most of those results counted already. Pennsylvania doesn't start unsealing absentee ballots until the polls close, so they're just starting to be counted.


  • #1556
    sky88
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,689 ✭✭✭sky88


    It’s actually astonishing how they just wait till all the votes are counted


  • #1557
    Dr. Bre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,841 ✭✭✭Dr. Bre


    Fox must be losing their minds


  • #1558
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Trump’s vote share has dropped slightly among white voters.
    He has made gains among non-white voters.

    Oh dear. Looks like the all the claims that Trump is a racist didnt work too well.


  • #1559
    Kingp35
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 12,375 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kingp35


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    Each state gets a certain amount of electoral college votes based on a census held every 10 years. So if you win a state you get all the votes of that state and not a proportion based on how much of the vote you won in the state. So in Florida trump gets all 29 electoral votes even though he only just won it. Biden gets nothing though he got close to winning it. The first to 270 wins.

    I've always said that the US is the least democratic democracy in the world.


  • #1560
    sky88
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,689 ✭✭✭sky88


    landofthetree wrote: »
    Trump’s vote share has dropped slightly among white voters.
    He has made gains among non-white voters.

    Oh dear. Looks like the all the claims that Trump is a racist didnt work too well.

    He is racist they just don’t care


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  • #1561
    The_Kew_Tour
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,667 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    2016 came as no surprise to me.

    But this result has, even though the warning signs were there I guess, but I still expected Biden to win. He still could and I remain hopeful, it's too close to call, but its depressing to see a President in waiting wanting all out war if he does not get his way.

    2020 has been a year like no other.

    If my mother tongue is shaking the foundations of your state, it probably means you built your state on my land.

    EVENFLOW



This discussion has been closed.
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