Share Picks 2020

Shedite27 · 29-10-2020 06:22PM

The guidance that companies are giving is far more important than "beating" the expectations that experts give. The expectations are so watered down at this stage, you really need to look beyond it to understand stock movements post-earnings.

RIGOLO · 29-10-2020 06:34PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

The guidance that companies are giving is far more important than "beating" the expectations that experts give. The expectations are so watered down at this stage, you really need to look beyond it to understand stock movements post-earnings.

Yes agreed guidance is also a top driver of the SP.

But as private investors we are dependant on many factors connected to guidance. post-covid some companies are scared to give guidance as the future landscape is uncertain, some ceo's are not very good at delivering guidance messages in their earnings call, also they are walking a tightrope of regulations as to what they can say about the future .

A character like Elon is the king of guidance (bar the odd our sp is over valued tweet) but he has talked up TSLA to where it sits today , a large part due to guidance .
Even with an earnings beat and good guidance Wall St has still walked many stock prices down in hte last few months.

Its all part of what makes investing part science and part mystery novel, you have to look at technicals but also read the clues.

Timing belt · 29-10-2020 06:38PM

bfa1509 wrote: »

My strategy for 2021 will be "buy the news, sell the rumor"

Is it just me or does this feel like the dot.com bubble all over again where investors are no longer looking at the fundamentals of the company for its valuation.

29-10-2020 06:39PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Is it just me or does this feel like the dot.com bubble all over again where investors are no longer looking at the fundamentals of the company for its valuation.

*cough* $TSLA

bfa1509 · 29-10-2020 07:05PM

Timing belt wrote: »

Is it just me or does this feel like the dot.com bubble all over again where investors are no longer looking at the fundamentals of the company for its valuation.

My portfolio is up 3.2% today so far (a daily record for me) off the back of expectation and not much else. A smart move would be to sell everything now before tomorrow's blood-bath of "good news" and pre-election adjustments.

But I'm not smart...

littlevillage · 29-10-2020 07:57PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

20% up in Paris and halted.
Hard luck on the bid, sometimes its best to just execute the trade you believe in rather than hang on for a few more pence drop

If you want to hedge your oil plays, pickup some 3BRS, 3xDaily Brent short ,
At least thats what Im doing, it might be a long time before Oil returns.

I sold on Tuesday at £10.60....the trousers dropped out of it yesterday, went back to £8.20. I didn't bite. Thought more to fall.

Today, its back to £10.45 at close. WTF???

I think the smaller float on AIM....is unreliable anyway.

ExMachina1000 · 29-10-2020 09:05PM

bfa1509 wrote: »

My portfolio is up 3.2% today so far (a daily record for me) off the back of expectation and not much else. A smart move would be to sell everything now before tomorrow's blood-bath of "good news" and pre-election adjustments.

But I'm not smart...

Set stops.
Although my favourite strategy is to set a stop loss, stock drops hits sell point then finishes higher than it started.

Iv mastered this strategy lol

29-10-2020 09:10PM

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Set stops.
Although my favourite strategy is to set a stop loss, stock drops hits sell point then finishes higher than it started.

Iv mastered this strategy lol

Stop losses become targets though. Traders can see how many shares that need to be bought to break down to the stop losses i.e. they can become targets to trigger.

RIGOLO · 29-10-2020 09:18PM

littlevillage wrote: »

I sold on Tuesday at £10.60....the trousers dropped out of it yesterday, went back to £8.20. I didn't bite. Thought more to fall.

Today, its back to £10.45 at close. WTF???

I think the smaller float on AIM....is unreliable anyway.

Ive ridden thru 20 of those cycles. I did say it would do that. Its volatiltiy index is 165% .. which says alot

Shedite27 · 29-10-2020 09:23PM

Amazon
EPS target $7.41
EPS actual $12.37

Shares down

Cpfm · 29-10-2020 09:24PM

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Set stops.
Although my favourite strategy is to set a stop loss, stock drops hits sell point then finishes higher than it started.

Iv mastered this strategy lol

How long does a stop loss stay in effect? I placed one today on DEGIRO and a few hours later I was notified it got deleted. Do they have a lifespan?

29-10-2020 09:25PM

Cpfm wrote: »

How long does a stop loss stay in effect? I placed one today on DEGIRO and a few hours later I was notified it got deleted. Do they have a lifespan?

At end of day or mid day?

Cpfm · 29-10-2020 09:27PM

Deleted User wrote: »

At end of day or mid day?

Placed it around midday, it got deleted about 16:30

29-10-2020 09:28PM

Cpfm wrote: »

Placed it around midday, it got deleted about 16:30

Yeah, that was EOD for that exchange. You should be able to set a GTC stop loss that wont expire.

Cpfm · 29-10-2020 09:31PM

Thanks, I’ll check that out. &#55357;&#56397;

dontparkhere · 30-10-2020 12:06AM

Planning on buying intel. Does anyone have any insight on why the earning per share has increased so dramatically over the past 3 years (4$) vs the previous three years and beyond (2$).
Also tempted to buy more Rocket companies (rkt). I was hmming and hawing at the stock when it IPO'd, it started to rise and got FOMO at 29$... now 19$

Bob Harris · 30-10-2020 12:38AM

dontparkhere wrote: »

Planning on buying intel. Does anyone have any insight on why the earning per share has increased so dramatically over the past 3 years (4$) vs the previous three years and beyond (2$).
Also tempted to buy more Rocket companies (rkt). I was hmming and hawing at the stock when it IPO'd, it started to rise and got FOMO at 29$... now 19$

Share buybacks.

rugbyman · 30-10-2020 09:43AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Stop losses become targets though. Traders can see how many shares that need to be bought to break down to the stop losses i.e. they can become targets to trigger.

Chinese Whospers
to whom do i have to subscribe to get this info,on stop losses,which i assume shows all lurking bids. Also want instant prices.
thanks in advance

regards

30-10-2020 10:23AM

rugbyman wrote: »

Chinese Whospers
to whom do i have to subscribe to get this info,on stop losses,which i assume shows all lurking bids. Also want instant prices.
thanks in advance

regards

Hi,

I think it's mostly day traders have this, but give a look here (I don't have access to it directly) https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/level2quotes.asp#:~:text=Level%20II%20is%20essentially%20the,insight%20into%20the%20price%20action.

AmberGold · 30-10-2020 10:23AM

I see Ark Invest's ETF is up 80% YTD, you can also subscribe to their daily purchases/sells on their website?
The level of transparency here is amazing considering their business model.

Anyone here following or copying?

RIGOLO · 30-10-2020 10:24AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Is it just me or does this feel like the dot.com bubble all over again where investors are no longer looking at the fundamentals of the company for its valuation.

yes .. for various reasons I agree with this sentiment..

QQQS - 3x Short Nasdaq 100 is your friend if this is a medium term outlook and you want to invest

Bob24 · 30-10-2020 10:35AM

RIGOLO wrote: »

yes .. for various reasons I agree with this sentiment..

QQQS - 3x Short Nasdaq 100 is your friend if this is a medium term outlook and you want to invest

I think most people would agree there is a disconnect between price and value in the tech sector (i.e. that many share prices are too high fort the value of what you are buying).

Having said that, shorting the market with leverage is incredibly risky as no one knows at which point a bubble might burst, and if prices keep going up while you are holding this ETF the losses can be massive. As they say, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”.

RIGOLO · 30-10-2020 10:53AM

Bob24 wrote: »

I think most people would agree there is a disconnect between price and value in the tech sector (i.e. that many share prices are too high fort the value of what you are buying).

Having said that, shorting the market with leverage is incredibly riskyas no one knows at which point a bubble might burst, and if prices keep going up while you are holding this ETF the losses can be massive. As they say, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”.

I dont think that paints an exact picture.
This is a fully collaterised product, your maximum loss is your stake, which is the same risk as any long position .
Buying QQQS isnt shorting the market with leverage.
The underlying assets do have a compounding rebalance of the daily leverage whihc is different.
This rebalance will underperform against you if there is high volatility but if the trend is up (or in this case NASDAQ trend down) they this compounding effect will work for you .

Agreed theres risk, theres always risk, but IMO its limited risk and if you want a short term play and if you believe in an upcoming short-medium term downward trend in the NASDAQ or other indexes then these ETFs will outperform.

30-10-2020 11:07AM

RIGOLO wrote: »

I dont think that paints an exact picture.
This is a fully collaterised product, your maximum loss is your stake, which is the same risk as any long position .

Yeah, your broker will close out a position unless you increase your funds. If no funding is received by a certain time they will purchase the required shares from your funds if the price rises too high.

Basically, the house is safe, but you could lose the funds you have in your account in a veritable blink of an eye.

RIGOLO · 30-10-2020 11:11AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah, your broker will close out a position unless you increase your funds. If no funding is received by a certain time they will purchase the required shares from your funds if the price rises too high.

Basically, the house is safe, but you could lose the funds you have in your account in a veritable blink of an eye.

im too busy .. to explain
but thats complete rubbish given what we were talking about.. have a read back, then go do some research
if you dont understand QQQS and how ridiculous that statement is given thats what we are talking about then I really dont have time to explain and to be honest an unleveraged ETF is not for you .

Timing belt · 30-10-2020 11:12AM

Bob24 wrote: »

I think most people would agree there is a disconnect between price and value in the tech sector (i.e. that many share prices are too high fort the value of what you are buying).

Having said that, shorting the market with leverage is incredibly risky as no one knows at which point a bubble might burst, and if prices keep going up while you are holding this ETF the losses can be massive. As they say, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”.

Very true the vix can give an indication of when but as you say it’s very risky

30-10-2020 11:17AM

RIGOLO wrote: »

im too busy .. to explain
but thats complete rubbish given what we were talking about.. have a read back, then go do some research
if you dont understand QQQS and how ridiculous that statement is given thats what we are talking about then I really dont have time to explain and to be honest an unleveraged ETF is not for you .

Calm down dear, I'm not referencing QQQS in the slightest, just in general.

You've got the most fragile ego on this thread, and takes from the genuine good info you put up here.

RIGOLO · 30-10-2020 11:21AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Very true the vix can give an indication of when but as you say it’s very risky

Explain why QQQS or any other fully collatorized non-leveraged ETF is very risky ?
I will wait....

Timing belt · 30-10-2020 11:26AM

RIGOLO wrote: »

Explain why QQQS or any other fully collatorized non-leveraged ETF is very risky ?
I will wait....

I haven’t said anything about an ETF all I have said is that it very risky to short the stock as the timing might be wrong.

Bob24 · 30-10-2020 11:32AM

RIGOLO wrote: »

I dont think that paints an exact picture.
This is a fully collaterised product, your maximum loss is your stake, which is the same risk as any long position .
Buying QQQS isnt shorting the market with leverage.

True, you can't lose more than your original stake. But it still is leveraged in the sense that your gains/losses are magnified by a factor 3. I.e. if you invested 100 and the indice rises 10% tomorrow, you will lose 30 (and if the indice increases 30% you lose almost everything you had invested - that is leverage).

And this is not even taking into account beta slippage, which will kill your performance if you have to hold it long term waiting for the tide to turn in the direction you are hoping for (meaning even if you end-up being right, if you had to hold the product for too long before your expectations came true you could still be losing money).

So just my view, but IMO this type of ETF shouldn't be held for more than a couple of days (either as a cover for other positions, or if one has a very strong conviction that the indice will drop in the immediate future).

For reference, see below the effect of beta slippage on 3x leveraged long and short ETFs with 10% daily volatility. After 50 days the market hasn't moved but the 3x short ETF has lost 94% of its value. Of course 10% daily volatility is an extreme exemple, but lately the markets aren't exactly smooth either and beta slippage is far from insignificant.

Share Picks 2020

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