US Presidential Election 2020

ancapailldorcha · 11-10-2020 09:40PM

Mod: Please do not use this thread as a tweet dumping ground and refrain from nicknames.

BorneTobyWilde · 11-10-2020 09:59PM

How does Biden change this map

Water John · 11-10-2020 10:04PM

Here 538 give you 19 maps as to how Biden wins.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Explore

Quin_Dub · 11-10-2020 10:05PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How does Biden change this map

Based on current polling, he wins Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which gets him to 289

StringerBell · 11-10-2020 10:31PM

Hell, he's also going to knock over NC, Florida and Texas. Election to be called for Biden by 9.30pm Pacific time, handy one

Ah but wouldn't it be great.

Edit: **** it stick Georgia in too

11-10-2020 10:34PM

Every 4 years I book a day off for election night. Am I the only one?

Cody montana · 11-10-2020 10:41PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Every 4 years I book a day off for election night. Am I the only one?

I have that week off.

pixelburp · 11-10-2020 10:42PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Every 4 years I book a day off for election night. Am I the only one?

"Election night" will be a misnomer this time if the number of postal votes is concerned. And the impatience to have it all counted in one night only feeds into the possible narrative of the GOP declaring the initial count for Trump and to halt postal counting. You may need more than one day off the way things are going and wouldn't bet on it all bring done and dusted by Ireland AM. Though I think some posters already pointed that early voting is way up, so turnout may still be high despite the CoVid risk. The above strategy may not apply if Biden runs away with it.

BorneTobyWilde · 11-10-2020 10:46PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Based on current polling, he wins Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which gets him to 289

Can't see it
I give Biden PA and Michigan, still loses though

11-10-2020 10:46PM

pixelburp wrote: »

"Election night" will be a misnomer this time if the number of postal votes is concerned. And the impatience to have it all counted in one night only feeds into the possible narrative of the GOP declaring the initial count for Trump and to halt postal counting. You may need more than one day off the way things are going and wouldn't bet on it all bring done and dusted by Ireland AM. Though I think some posters already pointed that early voting is way up, so turnout may still be high despite the CoVid risk. The above strategy may not apply if Biden runs away with it.

Oh yep totally accepting that it's likely there won't be a result on the night. But always enjoyed the ridiculous experience cause I'm weird like that...

Timberrrrrrrr · 11-10-2020 11:04PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Every 4 years I book a day off for election night. Am I the only one?

I have this year, its my new super bowl Sunday:D

droidus · 11-10-2020 11:58PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Can't see it
I give Biden PA and Michigan, still loses though

This is completely arbitrary. Biden is polling at +7 in Michigan AND Wisconsin. Also, winning MI and MN is highly correlated with winning Wisconsin.

marno21 · 12-10-2020 12:03AM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Can't see it
I give Biden PA and Michigan, still loses though

He's pretty much guaranteed to win Nebraska's 2nd congressional district also (Omaha - the type of district that has abandoned the GOP in droves since 2016). So what you have there is a 269-269 tie.

rossie1977 · 12-10-2020 02:47AM

Biden walked Wisconsin primary vs Sanders, Clinton lost Wisconsin primary vs Sanders in 2016.

marno21 · 12-10-2020 04:32AM

There really is no bottom to this barrel

https://twitter.com/mjs_dc/status/1315492577601298434

Tell me how · 12-10-2020 04:46AM

marno21 wrote: »

There really is no bottom to this barrel

https://twitter.com/mjs_dc/status/1315492577601298434

Trump pretty much spoke directly to his supporters a couple of weeks ago and said that it is easy for people to fill out absentee ballots and then go to the polls and vote and that that is voter fraud.

Let's hope he is beaten and by such a margin that talk of disputed ballots is quickly seen to be inconsequential.

briany · 12-10-2020 09:44AM

Tell me how wrote: »

Trump pretty much spoke directly to his supporters a couple of weeks ago and said that it is easy for people to fill out absentee ballots and then go to the polls and vote and that that is voter fraud.

Trump and his followers will say they merely want to 'test the system'; that if they vote by mail and then go vote in person, well, if the system works as stated, the mail-in vote will have been registered, and the in-person vote will be thrown out. And if the mail-in vote wasn't registered, then they're just making sure with the in-person vote.

To be very clear, I'm not saying the logic above is anything other than deeply flawed at best or disingenuous and evil at worst, but I think it also highlights why Trump is not just a moron who blathered his way into the job, or if he is a moron, then he's one who at least can memorise the talking points given to him by people like Steve Bannon.

Firstly, he wants to really bed down this idea of fraud in his base's mind, and any potential fraud they're committing is really just to counteract the fraud that is being planned against their god-emperor. Secondly, by telegraphing the idea of this widespread double-voting, he probably figures he can slow the count in enough states and perhaps have shot of being ahead in close states by their deadline to declare.

It's all about FUD, FUD and more FUD. I have to think that this upcoming election could be one the ones most rife with voter fraud because the sitting president is essentially telling his supporters to do it, and therefore I think we know which candidate this voter fraud will be committed in support of.

Also, I have to think that on the day of the election, Twitter will be popping off with pictures of apparent ballots voting for Trump that a self-described poll watcher found crumpled up in a waste paper bin. More FUD.

Water John · 12-10-2020 11:04AM

marno21 wrote: »

There really is no bottom to this barrel

https://twitter.com/mjs_dc/status/1315492577601298434

A judge will have no problem telling anyone caught, it's election fraud and stealing someone else's vote is a serious offence with significant jail time.

briany · 12-10-2020 11:46AM

I can't help but notice that the US has only had one Catholic president in its history. Does Biden's faith have much of a potential impact on his electability? Is this something that has been studied? We know it couldn't hurt him in areas with Hispanic voters, who tend to be Catholic themselves, or areas with people of Irish, Italian or Polish backgrounds. Does it hurt him much in the Bible Belt, down in the protestant heartlands of the U.S.? Is it a reason for hesitation among those voters, I wonder, in the case where they would traditionally vote Democrat?

Brian? · 12-10-2020 12:20PM

briany wrote: »

I can't help but notice that the US has only had one Catholic president in its history. Does Biden's faith have much of a potential impact on his electability? Is this something that has been studied? We know it couldn't hurt him in areas with Hispanic voters, who tend to be Catholic themselves, or areas with people of Irish, Italian or Polish backgrounds. Does it hurt him much in the Bible Belt, down in the protestant heartlands of the U.S.? Is it a reason for hesitation among those voters, I wonder, in the case where they would traditionally vote Democrat?

I'd say the people who it really matters to are solid GOP voters anyway.

partyguinness · 12-10-2020 12:44PM

briany wrote: »

I can't help but notice that the US has only had one Catholic president in its history. Does Biden's faith have much of a potential impact on his electability? Is this something that has been studied? We know it couldn't hurt him in areas with Hispanic voters, who tend to be Catholic themselves, or areas with people of Irish, Italian or Polish backgrounds. Does it hurt him much in the Bible Belt, down in the protestant heartlands of the U.S.? Is it a reason for hesitation among those voters, I wonder, in the case where they would traditionally vote Democrat?

Being of a religious (Christian) persuasion is fine no matter what it is. There is only one thing worse and that is not being religious at all.

Quin_Dub · 12-10-2020 01:32PM

partyguinness wrote: »

Being of a religious (Christian) persuasion is fine no matter what it is. There is only one thing worse and that is not being religious at all.

Indeed - Coney-Barrett is about a Catholic as it is possible to be , but they are extremely happy to see her take a seat in the Supreme court.

That's why you have that convoluted construction of "Judeo-Christian".

Jewish , Catholic or any flavour of Protestantism , it doesn't matter.

Basically , if you follow any variant of the Bible and are aligned with the positions on Marriage , Abortion and Creationism it's all good.

L1011 · 12-10-2020 01:48PM

They elected a Quaker, and nominated a Mormon; once it looks Christian the base will vote for it.

BonnieSituation · 12-10-2020 02:09PM

briany wrote: »

I can't help but notice that the US has only had one Catholic president in its history. Does Biden's faith have much of a potential impact on his electability? Is this something that has been studied? We know it couldn't hurt him in areas with Hispanic voters, who tend to be Catholic themselves, or areas with people of Irish, Italian or Polish backgrounds. Does it hurt him much in the Bible Belt, down in the protestant heartlands of the U.S.? Is it a reason for hesitation among those voters, I wonder, in the case where they would traditionally vote Democrat?

Less of an issue now than it was when Kennedy ran. He had to console pastors in the south that his Popery wouldn't cloud his presidency.

America is still very Waspish though. Just less than it was.

partyguinness · 12-10-2020 02:20PM

Trump is not remotely religious (the only good thing I can say about him) and does not practice. Well, he is too vain and believes in himself too much.

It didn't bother his voters in the Bible Belt.

Foxtrol · 12-10-2020 02:41PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Indeed - Coney-Barrett is about a Catholic as it is possible to be , but they are extremely happy to see her take a seat in the Supreme court.

That's why you have that convoluted construction of "Judeo-Christian".

Jewish , Catholic or any flavour of Protestantism , it doesn't matter.

Basically , if you follow any variant of the Bible and are aligned with the positions on Marriage , Abortion and Creationism it's all good.

I wouldn't even go that far, during the Trump presidency they've let the mask fall off completely, once you pander to conservative talking points then how much you even feign religiousness doesn't even matter.

The mega-pastors, along with the prosperity gospel they shill, are complete hypocrites, so they have no fear supporting others.

letowski · 12-10-2020 03:28PM

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1315654125640732672?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I don't know if this guy is just pure deluded, or he thinks his supporters are, or something else or both. I think these past few months his mental state has completely deteriorated. He needs some sort of psychological evaluation.

Like his messaging now is purely down to vote for me or there will be some sort of socialist/radical left takeover. At least in 2016, he talked about cutting taxes, protectionist policies, isolationist foreign policies, etc. Compelling arguments to right wing bases and moderate conservatives.

These are just rantings of deranged old man. It's possible the prospect facing severe criminal proceedings over his business affairs might be having an effect on his sanity.

Tell me how · 12-10-2020 03:32PM

letowski wrote: »

I don't know if this guy is just pure deluded, or he thinks his supporters are, or something else or both. I think these past few months his mental state has completely deteriorated. He needs some sort of psychological evaluation.

Like his messaging now is purely down to vote for me or there will be some sort of socialist/radical left takeover. At least in 2016, he talked about cutting taxes, protectionist policies, isolationist foreign policies, etc. Compelling arguments to right wing bases and moderate conservatives.

These are just rantings of deranged old man. It's possible the prospect facing severe criminal proceedings over his business affairs might be having an effect on his sanity.

His messaging is only appealing to the extremes of those who are already going to vote for him.

In any other politician, I'd say it was a strategy to motivate these people to actually complete the act of voting rather than appealing to the either/or people but I don't think he is strategic enough to think this way.

partyguinness · 12-10-2020 03:34PM

All this socialist nonsense has been levid against the Dems for decades. It never works and when in power the Dems have never turned the US into a socialist haven. Likewise they have never made any in road into gun control.

AbusesToilets · 12-10-2020 04:27PM

In a sense, Barrett's nomination and overturn of the ACA could be a boon longer turn. Would give the Democrats the impetus to go for and enact Universal health care.

US Presidential Election 2020

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