US Presidential Election 2020

Rjd2 · 10-10-2020 02:41PM

MadYaker wrote: »

So last time the moderator was a guy from Fox News and thats fine but this time around the moderator has to be unbiased?

Fox obviously leans to the GOP while the third debate will be hosted by NBC who lean to the left, that's fine, however with that "hack" and previous posts online saying "never trump" I could understand why Trump and his crew could already get the excuses in by saying bias in a debate where the host is meant to be as neutral as possible.

An Ciarraioch · 10-10-2020 02:53PM

Igotadose wrote: »

Found this nifty map on CNN where you could pick your state results.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

So, I've done that - I'm calling the 'battleground' states in the upper midwest and PA for Biden, and the Southern ones for Trump. AZ for Biden, NV for Biden. Biden wins the EC 291 to 247. MI is delivered by Whitmer (and all the notoriety) to Biden. WI is delivered to Biden by their recent massive Covid outbreak causing them to need emergency hospitals. MN by George Floyd. CO is polling well for Biden.

I trust nothing I read about Texas or Florida, I think they slightly go for Trump at the end of the day, like Ohio. NC and GA are so expert at messing with voting I'm calling them for Trump, wouldn't be shocked if NC went for Biden but it would be close.

So, my challenge is if you're going to drop in here and mumble "Trump's gonna win!" or "Biden's got it bagged", put up your map and explain the 'battleground states'. If you think a non-battleground state is actually in play for either candidate, feel free to point that out, too, I could see Missouri going for Biden with that flat-earther in the state house coming down with Covid and a strong minority contingent in the state.

Not sure if this affects your EC tallies, but your map has Nevada in red, even though (as the polls would suggest) it should remain blue.

Quin_Dub · 10-10-2020 03:00PM

Over 8 Million Votes cast already in the Election.

Over 8 million Americans have already cast their votes, which could mean this presidential election sees a record number in voter turnout, according to the United States Elections Project, which compiles election data.

Though five states in the U.S. conduct their voting system largely or entirely through mail-in ballots, including Oregon, Washington, Utah, Colorado, and Hawaii, none of these states were included in the more than 8 million votes already received.

Also - Only ~2.5M are postal votes , the rest are early votes.

As of Friday, 1.7 million registered Democrats had returned their ballots, while only 750,000 registered Republican ballots had been received.

I suspect that the chicanery in the USPS may have backfired as it looks like people are voting as early as possible and also voting early in person in huge numbers.

There were only ~4M ballot received on Monday and now 8M+ 4 or 5 days later - There could be 10% of all likely votes cast by the middle of next week at this pace.

Quin_Dub · 10-10-2020 03:01PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Not sure if this affects your EC tallies, but your map has Nevada in red, even though (as the polls would suggest) it should remain blue.

Agreed - I'd be inclined to flip Iowa and Nevada - Doesn't change the final tally , but a more likely scenario.

marno21 · 10-10-2020 03:04PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Agreed - I'd be inclined to flip Iowa and Nevada - Doesn't change the final tally , but a more likely scenario.

Indeed. Nevada also has a Democratic Governor and Dem controlled State House and State Senate so less chance of shenanigans going on there too.

Brussels Sprout · 10-10-2020 03:33PM

Igotadose wrote: »

Found this nifty map on CNN where you could pick your state results.

There's been a dedicated site for this for a few years as well:

https://www.270towin.com

Here's my prediction.

I was on the fence about Florida but the polling coming out of there in the past week tipped it for me. No doubt it'll find a way of turning red once again though!

Igotadose · 10-10-2020 04:45PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

There's been a dedicated site for this for a few years as well:

https://www.270towin.com

Here's my prediction.

I was on the fence about Florida but the polling coming out of there in the past week tipped it for me. No doubt it'll find a way of turning red once again though!

I know, Florida is intriguing because I think a lot of the seniors that came out to get revenge on the black guy last time, won't be budging due to Covid. So, it's close.

Thanks to the others that pointed out the NV thing. There are a lot of seniors in NV and I think that works against the #IMPOTUS this time around. It's a popular retirement place, still fairly cheap to live there and you can feed your SocSec checks into the slots at Vegas for jollies, plus avail of the free buffets at the same time.

BonnieSituation · 10-10-2020 05:04PM

How did the medical go last night?

Itssoeasy · 10-10-2020 05:47PM

I know this isn’t about the presidential election exactly but as if it wasn’t already apparent, Susan Collins of Maine is seriously panicking if her latest comments are anything to go by. She’s come out all guns blazing against her opponent in what is basically a game of “I’m more from Maine than you are.” Maybe Susan Collins shouldn’t have been a doormat for the worst president in modern history and she might not be in the position she’s in.

BonnieSituation · 10-10-2020 05:55PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I know this isn’t about the presidential election exactly but as if it wasn’t already apparent, Susan Collins of Maine is seriously panicking if her latest comments are anything to go by. She’s come out all guns blazing against her opponent in what is basically a game of “I’m more from Maine than you are.” Maybe Susan Collins shouldn’t have been a doormat for the worst president in modern history and she might not be in the position she’s in.

Delightful. I hope she gets walloped.

Itssoeasy · 10-10-2020 06:02PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Delightful. I hope she gets walloped.

Although the polls or at least the latest ones on fivethirtyeight.com have it as a one point lead for Sarah Gideon but the polls with an A rating give a nearly ten point lead in some polls. But clearly Susan Collins isn’t just going by the polls as if it really was within the margin of error she wouldn’t be so panicked

Inquitus · 10-10-2020 06:06PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I know this isn’t about the presidential election exactly but as if it wasn’t already apparent, Susan Collins of Maine is seriously panicking if her latest comments are anything to go by. She’s come out all guns blazing against her opponent in what is basically a game of “I’m more from Maine than you are.” Maybe Susan Collins shouldn’t have been a doormat for the worst president in modern history and she might not be in the position she’s in.

Collins and Murkowski both deserve voting out, they moaned about a lot of Trump's actions and nominations but in the end voted with him every time.

Brussels Sprout · 10-10-2020 09:12PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Collins and Murkowski both deserve voting out, they moaned about a lot of Trump's actions and nominations but in the end voted with him every time.

There was at least one notable exception.

StringerBell · 10-10-2020 09:20PM

Didn't murkowski vote down kavanaugh aswell or do I remember that wrong?

Collins I have no time for at all.

Rjd2 · 11-10-2020 05:27AM

StringerBell wrote: »

Didn't murkowski vote down kavanaugh aswell or do I remember that wrong?

Collins I have no time for at all.

Murwoski voted against Kav, Collins will deeply regret to confirming him, think if she voted no then she would be home and hosed for November, but obviously strong armed by Mitch into voting for him.

I'd be more annoyed by Ben Sasse than Collins, he made a huge song and dance about Trump choosing him and instead argued he should have picked someone else, but like "maverick" Flake he voted to confirm him.

Truly two of the most empty and worthless politicians in the GOP.

StringerBell · 11-10-2020 06:42AM

Rjd2 wrote: »

Murwoski voted against Kav, Collins will deeply regret to confirming him, think if she voted no then she would be home and hosed for November, but obviously strong armed by Mitch into voting for him.

I'd be more annoyed by Ben Sasse than Collins, he made a huge song and dance about Trump choosing him and instead argued he should have picked someone else, but like "maverick" Flake he voted to confirm him.

Truly two of the most empty and worthless politicians in the GOP.

Ah it's not just the kavaniagh confirmation with Collins for me, every damn time its the same show, every time the liberals or the media would hang hopes on Susan Collins and every time she would let them down. It's like they just couldn't learn. She is who she is, hopefully it costs her the seat. Jeff flake is/was no maverick, flake by name flake by nature would best describe him.

Carfacemandog · 11-10-2020 08:29AM

Susan "I hope he has learned his lesson" Collins also voted to acquit Trump last year during his impeachment while openly admitting she was doing so despite knowing he was guilty, something I'm surprised isn't illegal.

StringerBell · 11-10-2020 08:54AM

The republicans made sure that entire "trial" was nothing but a sham.

rossie1977 · 11-10-2020 11:45AM

Murwoski didn't vote against Kavanagh she just didn't vote.

Gbear · 11-10-2020 12:17PM

I was listening to the 538 podcast there about their prediction model, and they made the point that they've tried to factor in the increased uncertainty of this election into the figures. The 15% that Trump is currently on is already going out of it's way to give him a higher likelihood of victory. A conventional campaign would look more like 95% Biden to win.

They concede, of course, that they can't incorporate outright election fraud or other shenanigans into the model, so that limits its usefulness when we know that the Republicans and Trump will attempt to steal the election any way they can, but in terms of actual opinions, including in most of the battleground states, there's not a lot of ambiguity about who the people want to be President, even if you think there's some kind of bias in the polling.

Water John · 11-10-2020 12:51PM

The Reps now running for cover. Tillis saying he should be reelected in NC to keep the balances and checks on a Biden Presidency;
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/10/republicans-presidential-election-fears-biden-trump

Real bonus point to see Boris Johnson and his Govn't scrambling to build relationships with Biden. Brexit not as he envisioned.

Brian? · 11-10-2020 03:13PM

Gbear wrote: »

I was listening to the 538 podcast there about their prediction model, and they made the point that they've tried to factor in the increased uncertainty of this election into the figures. The 15% that Trump is currently on is already going out of it's way to give him a higher likelihood of victory. A conventional campaign would look more like 95% Biden to win.

They concede, of course, that they can't incorporate outright election fraud or other shenanigans into the model, so that limits its usefulness when we know that the Republicans and Trump will attempt to steal the election any way they can, but in terms of actual opinions, including in most of the battleground states, there's not a lot of ambiguity about who the people want to be President, even if you think there's some kind of bias in the polling.

It's hilarious how often Trump supporters cry foul about the 538 odds, when it's actually biased in his favour.

briany · 11-10-2020 04:15PM

The Republican party would want to be careful about going too far down the "by any means necessary" route in the event of a Trump loss where Trump and his circle start scheming about how to prevent a transition of power (can't believe this is even a distinct possibility in somewhere like the USA in this day and age). There is a huge chance of alienating moderate suburban Republicans and lapsed Republicans who dislike Trump immensely. It's one thing for the Republicans to support Trump, and indeed that's probably bad enough, but it's even worse again to support Trumpism and to continue to support it even where Trump loses. Real fork in the road potentially coming up for the GOP.

Quin_Dub · 11-10-2020 06:38PM

a really interesting article in Bloomberg today trailing about the crisis in Conservatism and how Covid has utterly exposed how utterly broken it has become.

Quite a long read, but well worth it.

Author is very much a conservative but is bemoaning the state of conservatism finally right now.

For example, he makes the point that pushing for "Small Government" is perfectly fine, but that that small government needs to be really really good at what it does, not just cut to the bone and left to rot.

This is what Covid has exposed both in the UK and the US.

is_that_so · 11-10-2020 06:47PM

Speaking of conservatives. Sexy Mike to the rescue!

https://www.politicalflare.com/2020/10/conservatives-think-pence-has-the-sex-appeal-they-need-to-win-over-suburban-women-use-him-more/

StringerBell · 11-10-2020 06:58PM

To borrow a quote from Miley, "well holy God"

An Ciarraioch · 11-10-2020 06:58PM

The Rust Belters for Trump were essentially the Reagan Democrats reborn, which as the Bloomberg article highlights, demonstrates that the GOP fare best when they appeal to Middle America on tax reform and minimal government interference in their daily lives (indeed, Bush breaking those promises brought Perot into the '92 race). Of course, the flipside of that philosophy is that it leaves Americans with the lowest welfare protections and highest hospital bills, so copying the British Tories of the last decade probably offers their best avenue of hedging their bets.

Tell me how · 11-10-2020 07:36PM

3 weeks before the Presidential election and one candidate is having posts on Twitter flagged for misinformation.

It's obvious where the real Fake News is.

BonnieSituation · 11-10-2020 08:01PM

Tell me how wrote: »

3 weeks before the Presidential election and one candidate is having posts on Twitter flagged for misinformation.

It's obvious where the real Fake News is.

Yeah, the "both sides are at it" argument is out in force today. Funny that.

briany · 11-10-2020 09:09PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Yeah, the "both sides are at it" argument is out in force today. Funny that.

The 'both sides at it' is something that's been designed to undermine objective truth and it implies that the best it'll get is to listen to whatever flavour of fake news most tickles your fancy. It's an effort to make people genuinely believe that conspiracy-laden rants with no factual basis are as legitimate as proper investigative journalism with verified sources and verified statistics behind it. In the long run that poses major challenges to keeping a society together. When you have large groups of people living in completely different realities, but also living in close physical proximity, conflict is not going to be far away, and the further these realities are apart, the more bitter that conflict could be. We're seeing this phenomenon to varying extents throughout the western world at the moment, but no more spectacularly than in the states with this election. It's downright scary to watch.

US Presidential Election 2020

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