Irish Champions Weekend

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Japan, Mogul, Sir Dragonet all very similar in that they are all big talking horses, plenty ability, all Galileos (i think), all expensive cliff horses and all as genuine as the "Fresh Cod" from the local take away

After that I am definitely getting some fish n chips tonight Raj.

Thing is I reckon Sir Dragonet is going to pop again somewhere in the mud at a big price, don't know where and don't know when, but he will. I would not be overly convinced Mogul is a pig either, but both horsies are victims of expectations. If you gave either to David Simcock or Richard Fahey they might still be handicapping and have 5 or 6 wins left in them.

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Unlikely considering he is off to Australia for a new life down under lad

Is he going racing or breeding?

It can rain down there too you know?

Handicap Clusterphuck Madness

The only reason the 2.35 handicap at Leopardstown is well over a 1m4f (almost 1m5f) is that the mile and half start incurs a hooooer of a bend after 100 yards and given the field size would be basically dangerous. At Leopardstown most 12f races are small as a result, but when they stretch out the start the race is invariably won by a low draw ( 1-4 ) or the wide outside draw ( 13-18 ). If you are drawn wide you slip in and wait for the home straight, if you are drawn low inside you make a scurry for the bend and try to kick on off the home turn. Simple game really.

I reckon backing these big handicaps, not unlike the jockeys, you need to cut a few corners and take a few risks. So I am extracting all mid drawn horsies from the line up. Which leaves me with
Inside draw
1) Kasparenko - gets trip but all wins coming from off pace, will be difficult to perform similar tactics here - no bet.
2) Questionnaire - at the price my heart says yes but my head says no. Goodluck Luke.
3) Edification - lovely phat price, but nice draw and won a 12f handicap ( held up ) on the /curragh this summer - considered.
4) RESERVE - Non runner
5) Arthurian Fame - I doubt it, looks exposed now.
Outside Draw
14) Buildmeupbuttercup - Has to have every chance, tight enough around 7/1, Mullins targets this race.
15) Emperor of the Sun - 3yrolds record not great in this race, bad price at 7/1 all things considered.
16) Never Do Nothing - can't really see it happening, although Gibo is getting winners and good luck to him.
17) Winner Takes it all - the bookies eyes are squinting the horizon, seeing when the lumping starts.
18) Reserve - NO N Runner
19) Royal Illusion - 8 yr old WPM targets the race, could be thrown in, nice price at 20's.
20) Springbank - Scooted up last time, 3 yr old could be anything, tight enough at 11's
21 ) John Ess - Keeps on picking up prize money at a slightly lower grade, but goes well left handed and is the right price at 40's to maybe nab a place if it gets a nice ride.

All things considered I am backing Royal Illusion and John Ess, both ew 5 places. I Couldn't stop anyone having a 5ew on Edification given his price and draw either.

Donnie
3.00 Shine So Bright, looks overpriced at 12/16's and they may not have pushed the button yet this season. Balding is winning races.
3.30 Galileo Chrome - It just wins.:p
Baile An Leopard
4.45 Lancaster Bomber - big dirty tank of a thing will pish it, get on.
5.15 Tiger Moth looks nailed on, but I cannot get away from Up Helly Aa at 14's 4 places. Really intriguing entry jumped up in trip, but her mummy was a beast and if she gets the trip will give all a run for their money. She could have surely gone in the preceding mile race, so they must have notions about her getting the trip, her mam won a Matron over a mile.

All singles and dumped in a Yankee also, I want a holiday.

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Handicap Clusterphuck Madness

The only reason the 2.35 handicap at Leopardstown is well over a 1m4f (almost 1m5f) is that the mile and half start incurs a hooooer of a bend after 100 yards and given the field size would be basically dangerous. At Leopardstown most 12f races are small as a result, but when they stretch out the start the race is invariably won by a low draw ( 1-4 ) or the wide outside draw ( 13-18 ). If you are drawn wide you slip in and wait for the home straight, if you are drawn low inside you make a scurry for the bend and try to kick on off the home turn. Simple game really.

I reckon backing these big handicaps, not unlike the jockeys, you need to cut a few corners and take a few risks. So I am extracting all mid drawn horsies from the line up. Which leaves me with
Inside draw
1) Kasparenko - gets trip but all wins coming from off pace, will be difficult to perform similar tactics here - no bet.
2) Questionnaire - at the price my heart says yes but my head says no. Goodluck Luke.
3) Edification - lovely phat price, but nice draw and won a 12f handicap ( held up ) on the /curragh this summer - considered.
4) RESERVE - Non runner
5) Arthurian Fame - I doubt it, looks exposed now.
Outside Draw
14) Buildmeupbuttercup - Has to have every chance, tight enough around 7/1, Mullins targets this race.
15) Emperor of the Sun - 3yrolds record not great in this race, bad price at 7/1 all things considered.
16) Never Do Nothing - can't really see it happening, although Gibo is getting winners and good luck to him.
17) Winner Takes it all - the bookies eyes are squinting the horizon, seeing when the lumping starts.
18) Reserve - NO N Runner
19) Royal Illusion - 8 yr old WPM targets the race, could be thrown in, nice price at 20's.
20) Springbank - Scooted up last time, 3 yr old could be anything, tight enough at 11's
21 ) John Ess - Keeps on picking up prize money at a slightly lower grade, but goes well left handed and is the right price at 40's to maybe nab a place if it gets a nice ride.

All things considered I am backing Royal Illusion and John Ess, both ew 5 places. I Couldn't stop anyone having a 5ew on Edification given his price and draw either.

I missed the start but I have an awful feeling that the high numbers were on the rail? What a shambles if that is the case and apologies to all.

Can anyone confirm this?

Legend, great stuff Johnny, yoooooou the man.