US Presidential Election 2020

A very interesting piece by a former Russian ambassador, who is well respected by all, and who has a wealth of experience. Worth a read and a warning for those voting in November as to what they are getting.





For those of us who study autocracies, including elections in autocracies, there were a lot of familiar messages, symbols, and methods on display this week at the #RNCConvention. THREAD

1. Cult of the Personality. This show was all about Trump. ( 3 years after the death of Stalin, Khrushchev's gave his secret speech in 1956, titled "On the Cult of Personality and Its Consequences." I wonder if a future GOP leader will give a similar speech someday?)

2. Administrative resources. Autocrats and semi-autocrats frequently use government resources for personal electoral gain. We have #HatchAct to prevent such behavior in the U.S. It's obviously not working.

3. Blatant disregard for the law. That Trump's team dared anyone to charge them with violating the #HatchAct is exactly what Putin and others autocrats do all the time. Laws don't apply to the king & his court, only to the subjects.

4. Blatant disregard for facts. As U.S. ambassador to Russia, I found this Putin regime trait most frustrating. We - the U.S. government- were constrained by facts. They were not. Trump obviously was not constrained by facts last night. He usually isn't: amazon.com/gp/product/B08…

5. Us versus Them populism. "Elites" versus "the people" nationalism. Autocratic populists use polarizing identity politics to divide societies all the time. Many populist leaders actually have little in common with the "masses." (Putin is very rich.)

6. The opposition is the "enemy of the people." Putin & other autocratic populists cast their opponents as radicals & revolutionaries. They don't focus on their own records - often there is little to celebrate - but the horrors that will happen if they lose power. Sound familiar?

6b. There is one difference between Putin and Trump so far. Putin also claims falsely that his political opponents are supported by foreign enemies, the U.S. & the West. Trump has not gone there full-throated yet. But my guess it's coming. "Beijing Biden" is a hint.

7. Law and Order. Autocratic populists all shout about it, even when the opposite is happening on their watch.

8. The good tsar versus the bad boyars. Kings and tsars always blamed bad provincial leaders for national ills. Putin blames the governors all the time... just like Trump.

9. Individual acts of royal kindness. Putin, like the tsars he emulates, does this all the time. Trump offering a pardon or "granting" citizenship (which of course he didnt & doesn't have the power to do) are typical, faux gestures of royal kindness toward his subjects.

10. Homage and fealty. Vassals must signal their complete loyalty and absolute devotion to kings and autocrats. Those that don't are banished from the royal court or the party. (Where were the Bushes last night?)

11. The royal family. In this dimension, Trump acts more like a monarch than even Putin. (but watch Lukashenko and his gun-toting teenage son in Belarus)The many Trump family members who performed this week - even a girlfriend got a slot - went beyond even what Putin does.

12. There's still one big difference. We still don't know who will win the November election. That uncertainty is a crucial difference between electoral democracies & electoral autocracies. Its also a difference that has no guarantee of lasting, depending on the outcome this year

looksee wrote: »

That's fascinating, do you have a link/reference?

Here you go.

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1299393438522077190?s=19

Brian? wrote: »

With all the flags and eagles it looks like a Nuremberg rally.

2000 people on the whitehouse lawn with no masks or social distancing doesn’t look at all presidential to me.

These conventions are a battle of the flags.

Both parties parade their nationalistic American nonsense.

hotmail.com wrote: »

These conventions are a battle of the flags.

Both parties parade their nationalistic American nonsense.

Only one candidate repeatedly hugged the flag in a desperate attempt to look patriotic

hotmail.com wrote: »

I didn't see much difference in the Democrat one.

That's a significant problem

What happens if they beat the evil Trump....and the protesting/looting/violence continues?

MisterAnarchy wrote: »

It looks like the article is a counter view to one William Hague wrote a few days ago in favour of Joe Biden

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/24/uks-national-interest-joe-biden-wins-presidential-race/

Perhaps Murray is playing the devil's advocate a bit but none the less he raises some good points.

Murray is a right wing nutter.

hotmail.com wrote: »

I didn't see much difference in the Democrat one.

The flag thing is an American culture thing.

America is similar to North Korea in many ways, mixed with religious fundamentalists.

Have you ever anything to add?

You say the same things every week and they're not the most earth shattering of statements, even if they're usually wrong. We geddit.

Can you bulk up your statements though so we can get some insight into your own thoughts?

I mean, you constantly rail at the futility of everything, how you don't really care about American politics, how the Dems and the GOP are all the same and how Americans don't care once they can [insert Americana trope].

It just seems trite and pointless though, when you're trying to always appear aloof and the smartest guy in the room. It's not working.

The US will hit 6M covid cases tomorrow. That's what will dominate the news and the lives of people. Not those shouting at the RNC.