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US Presidential Election 2020

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,931 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    KH nails Trump before his acceptance speech this evening:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1299071934769102853


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,166 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    The RNC is a complete **** show and the fivethirtyeight model shows the race tightening.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 928 ✭✭✭jamule


    Brian? wrote: »
    The RNC is a complete **** show and the fivethirtyeight model shows the race tightening.

    9.6 was the high in july, down to 7.5 about 3 weeks ago, creeping up since to 8.4


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Brian? wrote: »
    The RNC is a complete **** show and the fivethirtyeight model shows the race tightening.

    They're weirdly getting a convention bump.

    Here's to a shítshow of a speech tonight.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,144 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    I'm pretty sure that the 538 guys basically said that there almost always is a convention bump so no matter how crazy it seems to us, it's not out of the ordinary


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    What's crazy is despite it all, this will be yet another tight election. It always beggars belief.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,931 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    If it was based on the vote of everyone being equal, there would be no contest.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,166 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    I'm pretty sure that the 538 guys basically said that there almost always is a convention bump so no matter how crazy it seems to us, it's not out of the ordinary

    I was naively expecting something different.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,625 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    The election will be close and the polls will be close come voting time. It was always going to be the way, the set up lends itself to that, it's the reason the GOP have won the popular vote I think once in the last 28 years but have managed to win the presidency more than once.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,686 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Overheal wrote: »
    What's crazy is despite it all, this will be yet another tight election. It always beggars belief.

    40 odd per cent vote Republican and the same for Democrat. No matter what. The same in most countries.

    Every 8 years the swing voters switch sides.

    American politics isn't that complicated.

    And 2016 didn't represent a change in anything.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    40 odd per cent vote Republican and the same for Democrat. No matter what. The same in most countries.

    Every 8 years the swing voters switch sides.

    American politics isn't that complicated.

    And 2016 didn't represent a change in anything.

    It's so simple alright.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭droidus


    I don't see any bounce, there's been some weird polls - that crazy CBS one, the Trafalgar one that was pretty much discounted, and rasmussen who always lean Republican, but things have stayed fairly stable on average.

    https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

    TBH, Nate Silver seems to have gone even more off the deep end in recent months and the 538 model seems screwy this time round. Thats not to say that things wont tighten, but there's only about 7% undecideds left out there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,440 ✭✭✭✭The Nal


    GOP convention looks a thousand times more presidential than the Dems. Night and day,

    ?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2Fde%2F0b%2Fd41dd7984540b38fbdc1bef45e68%2F200828-trump-finale-ap-773.jpg
    LTN-Global-2020-DNC_2.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Superficial looks might impress, the words spoken by the various GOP speakers were vitriolic & hysterical portents of actual apocalypse. That's not so impressive. Words matter, doubly so in politics and there was nothing to be impressed about during that GOP conference.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,350 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Do you know what doesn't look Presidential...........the guy in the white house.

    Where, interestingly, he held his convention speech showing once again the lack of respect he has for it.

    Think that came across very well.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,440 ✭✭✭✭The Nal


    Do you know what doesn't look Presidential...........the guy in the white house.

    Where, interestingly, he held his convention speech showing once again the lack of respect he has for it.

    Think that came across very well.

    His disrespect for the office came across very well to reasonable people with sense but thats not who they are targeting.
    pixelburp wrote: »
    Superficial looks might impress, the words spoken by the various GOP speakers were vitriolic & hysterical portents of actual apocalypse. That's not so impressive. Words matter, doubly so in politics and there was nothing to be impressed about during that GOP conference.

    Again, this is something that baffles me. As above, they're targeting hysterical people who are easily manipulated by this sort of vitriolic rubbish. Influenced by post truth. It was the same in 2016. The Democrats just can't seem to comprehend this. They're playing a little nastier this time out but still on the "we go high" message.

    I'd worry about Bidens chances even more now after this week. The inability of people to be able to accept that this is what the modern GOP do is their greatest strength. Nothing solidifies the right than the lefts sanctimonious repetition.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,166 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    The Nal wrote: »
    GOP convention looks a thousand times more presidential than the Dems. Night and day,

    ?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2Fde%2F0b%2Fd41dd7984540b38fbdc1bef45e68%2F200828-trump-finale-ap-773.jpg
    LTN-Global-2020-DNC_2.png

    With all the flags and eagles it looks like a Nuremberg rally.

    2000 people on the whitehouse lawn with no masks or social distancing doesn’t look at all presidential to me.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    The Nal wrote: »
    His disrespect for the office came across very well to reasonable people with sense but thats not who they are targeting.



    Again, this is something that baffles me. As above, they're targeting hysterical people who are easily manipulated by this sort of vitriolic rubbish. Influenced by post truth. It was the same in 2016. The Democrats just can't seem to comprehend this. They're playing a little nastier this time out but still on the "we go high" message.

    I'd worry about Bidens chances even more now after this week. The inability of people to be able to accept that this is what the modern GOP do is their greatest strength. Nothing solidifies the right than the lefts sanctimonious repetition.

    Trump won in 2016 by swinging Undecided, moderate voters tickled by an "anti-establishment" ticket and the resting distrust of Hillary Clinton. By all accounts Trump appealed to the centrists, moderates by promising quantifiable (albeit fantastical) actions: restore the Rust Belt (with "clean coal"); Build a Wall; Repeal Healthcare; MAGA. It may have been pipedream stuff but it was policy, and appeals towards a project for America. There was a plan, however nebulous.

    Firstly, none of these have come to pass even before CoVid walloped the country. So there were no speeches of policy or plan this time around: instead the 2020 convention consisted of screeching, literal declarations that death would be a welcome relief in Biden's America. That's not even partisan, that's borderline Death Cult rhetoric; or a direct appeal to not just contest the election - but resist it. Couple that with Trump's repeated and very public lies that Postal Voting is fraudulent or that he may not accept a losing result and that's a cocktail for violence at worst, or another 2000 election at best. Admiring pomp and ceremony (that flew in the face of social distancing) is missing the substance of the convention and the groundwork it could yet be laying.

    I don't wish for violence in November, that's patently insane and sadistic, but the manner in which Trump and his supporters are whipping the base into believing America as a nation is under threat goes beyond even post 9/11 frenzy. And we're arguably already seeing this with Kyle Rittenhouse shooting protestors; I hope it's aberrant and not sign of things to come. I worry for actual violence at the polling stations; I see nothing in the content of the GOP conference that suggests they're not trying to stir the pot and see where it goes


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,708 ✭✭✭serfboard


    pixelburp wrote: »
    Trump ... promising quantifiable (albeit fantastical) actions: ... Repeal Healthcare
    He didn't just promise to repeal healthcare. He promised to replace the ACA.

    With what? "Something terrific".


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,021 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    serfboard wrote: »
    He didn't just promise to repeal healthcare. He promised to replace the ACA.

    With what? "Something terrific".

    He also said he'd do it on his very first day, so far zilch even with controlling the house and senate for 2 years


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,684 ✭✭✭FatherTed


    For someone who Trump calls Sleepy Joe and said he has dementia, Biden sure will be doing a lot when elected. From last night:

    he is the destroyer of America's Jobs
    Joe Biden wants to inflict a painful shutdown on the entire country
    Biden has promised to abolish the production of American oil, coal, shale, and natural gas
    Joe Biden recently promised to give away YOUR healthcare dollars to illegal immigrants.
    He also supports deadly Sanctuary Cities that protect criminal aliens.
    He promised to end national security travel bans from Jihadist nations, and he pledged to increase refugee admissions by 700 percent.
    The Biden Plan would eliminate America's borders in the middle of a global pandemic.
    Biden also vowed to oppose School Choice and close down Charter Schools.
    Biden is a Trojan horse for socialism.
    The Biden-Bernie Manifesto calls for Abolishing cash bail
    if you give power to Joe Biden, the radical left will Defund Police Departments all across America

    Also he mentioned Bernie 8 times last night but no mention of Kamala Harris. Strange that given Harris is the VP nomination and not Bernie.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,587 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    If trump was doing such a fantastic job, why the hell must he lie so much regarding what he says he has done?

    Why can't he tell the truth?

    Don't his supporters get that?

    Just lay it all out - what he has achieved over the last 4 years.


    Is it not a red flag that he has to lie all of the time, that he has to BS about his achievements?

    If he truly is the greatest, why is he not able to tell the truth to show that?

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,440 ✭✭✭✭The Nal


    everlast75 wrote: »
    If trump was doing such a fantastic job, why the hell must he lie so much regarding what he says he has done?

    Why can't he tell the truth?

    Don't his supporters get that?

    Just lay it all out - what he has achieved over the last 4 years.


    Is it not a red flag that he has to lie all of the time, that he has to BS about his achievements?

    If he truly is the greatest, why is he not able to tell the truth to show that?

    His supporters don't mind if he lies. Accept that we live in a post truth world now. Facts are secondary to affiliation and division from the other side. As long as he appears to have their backs with a few catchphrases they'll be happy. Hence the "lock her up" and "build the wall" chants from 2016. Fish in a barrel for the GOP.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 54,691 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer


    I just find it sadly ironic how trump and his cronies are bleating on about the coming apocalypse if the Democrats win all the while nearly 200K americans have died in a pandemic and america burns with race riots and fires in California.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,161 ✭✭✭✭salmocab


    Brian? wrote: »
    With all the flags and eagles it looks like a Nuremberg rally.

    2000 people on the whitehouse lawn with no masks or social distancing doesn’t look at all presidential to me.

    Well surely a couple of thousand people in the whitehouse grounds doing something stupid is exactly what passes for presidential these days


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,440 ✭✭✭✭The Nal


    I don't think we have to accept that truth doesn't matter at all, just like we don't have to accept that it's ok for a bunch of neo nazis to take over our neighbouring countries to which we have so many ties.

    People of Russia accepted all of this 20 years ago after being hammered by depression and decades of mismanagement. And look at the type of oligarchic dystopian ****hole they have now.

    No we shouldn't give in to this. No we should not accept all this bull****.

    Im not suggesting that people should give into this or accept it. Just to accept that other people do. The Dems telling half of the electorate that they're wrong won't win any votes. Its reactionary.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,079 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    I would be concerned for the Democrats that the violence in Wisconsin runs the risk of alienating voters in a most critical swing state. They need to thread a thin line when they speak out in support of the civil unrest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,587 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    The Nal wrote: »
    Im not suggesting that people should give into this or accept it. Just to accept that other people do. The Dems telling half of the electorate that they're wrong won't win any votes. Its reactionary.

    That's the problem.

    No. MATTER. WHAT. The dems say, these trump supporters will disregard it.

    If Dems said that Trump was a nazi, his supporters would spit fury.

    If Trump said he was a nazi, his supporters would say "well, it's better to be a Nazi than a Democrat"

    There is no reasoning with these people. They have had their most ignorant views supported and amplified by Fox, OAN, Trump and various social media sites. They are literally deaf to anything other than what they are told by these people/outlets. There is zero reasoning with them.

    The problem is that this will lead to unholy hell if he loses. He is prepared to scorch the earth than be removed from office.

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 54,691 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer


    I would be concerned for the Democrats that the violence in Wisconsin runs the risk of alienating voters in a most critical swing state. They need to thread a thin line when they speak out in support of the civil unrest.

    Why would it? This is all on the GOPs watch. The Democrats aren't supporting violence but the people that can do something about it, namely the orange moron and his cronies in the white house are just fanning the flames and making things worse.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,693 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    I would be concerned for the Democrats that the violence in Wisconsin runs the risk of alienating voters in a most critical swing state. They need to thread a thin line when they speak out in support of the civil unrest.

    There was no violence last night just peaceful protests. And the most extreme violence was by an armed self proclaimed underage militia who killed 2 people. The Democrats have been pretty clearly speaking out against the violence.


This discussion has been closed.
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