US Presidential Election 2020

Personally think we need to decouple our fear and / or the implications of a Trump victory from the objective analysis of its likelihood.

It is absolutely mad that he has a chance given everything that has gone on, but that is the nature of where America is; the demographics at play and the nature of how the system top to bottom operates.

The magnitude of him pulling off a victory is hard to fathom, and it would be difficult to foresee how bad things may get in the wake. When you add this to the fact he has a chance (and did win last time out) you can get into a tunnel where everything looks like bad news.

The objective realities don’t care tot these things. The polling data is different than it was last time out, even if it will naturally narrow somewhat and it will never show Biden way over 50% and unbeatable. The economic indicators and Trumps net favourable ratings do not favour victory for an incumbent. If he wins in this environment, he’ll be entirely resetting the baseline for what a sitting president can overcome.

Most importantly, polarisation goes both ways. Republicans are more dug in than ever, but it follows that Biden’s supporters will have a determination this time out that Clinton could not command.

Do not live in fear. Trump needs the environment to move in his direction substantially; he needs to win a very large percentage of remaining undecideds *and* he needs to convert some small sliver of people who are already intent on voting Biden in. And he has 10 weeks (actually less this time out).

everlast75 wrote: »

There are two different factors here.

1) The polling
2) What "should" happen given the campaigning and support for each candidate

The polling is not infallible, however, IMHO the gap should be significantly bigger in favour of Biden.

Frankly, if Trump is not defeated this time around I am not joking when I say the idea of America as a World leader and I suppose a concept is over.

That idea is already over.
the question is can they get back to that place.

They might not do so with Biden, they will gallop in the opposite direction with Trump.

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Donald trump is going with the line that’s he’s the only hope against the destruction of America. Christ what a image.

That's that sanitised version of twee 50s America, which never actually existed.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

In oligarchs we trust. With those 2 we endup in an expanse like dystopia.

You think we aren't living in one now?

Biden is a poor choice by the Dems. He will not be able to debate Trump nightly for hours on end day-after-day as he is not physically able. It remains to be seen whether the other baggage - the college essay plagiarism and his legislative efforts targeting black people - impedes him.

Stormington wrote: »

2.4 on exchanges. Back him.


As long as Space Race 2 is moving along the likes of Musk and Bezos will provide humanity with a Plan B.

The American empire may be coming to an end. The republic that replaces it will certainly look different but meaningful change may not happen until after we are gone.

In 500 years this statement could be studied as the evidence that some in society could not see the risks in letting Bezos or Musk become all powerful.

One is the wealthiest person on the planet while some of his workers wear diapers because they are not allocated sufficient toilet breaks while at work.

The other got so put out at others getting the limelight in the rescue of some trapped children that he called one of the people successfully helping to rescue them a paedophile.

Stormington wrote: »

Biden appears to have dementia, sadly. I am not the only person to have noticed this.

Dismantling the body to identity and mitigate pandemics to upset Obama didn't help. But there is an argument that any President would have been unprepared: look at Europe and its inaction.


Many won't care. They will adapt to the current climate and be more worried about immediate concerns like paying the bills or joining unemployment lines.

Without going into detail on corporations taking advantage of stimulus money, wealth inequality, systemic racism and resorting to protest during a pandemic as the safe option, when media can paint the choices to the lazy looking for quick answers as the guy who wants to give you money and another guy that wants to give rioters and looters more money, who do you think the average American might vote for?

Stopped right there, anything you said after that is worthless.

everlast75 wrote: »

Frankly, if Trump is not defeated this time around I am not joking when I say the idea of America as a World leader and I suppose a concept is over.

I would absolutely say that America's standing as a moral leader will take a big knock, but at the same time they still have the nukes, the large economy (not as large as before, admittedly) and primacy as a cultural exporter. At least two of those will probably remain true in a 2nd Trump term. That's not to deny that America would further become a cesspool of bitter political division, though, and be a butt of many jokes for that.

How America has gotten to that place is something we could ponder on for a good while. I was fascinated to see a bit of old footage on Youtube from around the time of the Vietnam war where American people give their opinions on that conflict, and it's striking not only the nuance of understanding some of them display, but also the civility shown when people who differ are talking face to face.



You'd wonder if this is lost, now, or if it's just no longer being shown to happen because people screaming gets better ratings.

Stormington wrote:

Biden appears to have dementia, sadly. I am not the only person to have noticed this.

....and trump appears to be a cluster b, I'd go with Biden tbh

Stormington wrote: »

2.4 on exchanges. Back him.


As long as Space Race 2 is moving along the likes of Musk and Bezos will provide humanity with a Plan B.

The American empire may be coming to an end. The republic that replaces it will certainly look different but meaningful change may not happen until after we are gone.

No, they wont. Any attempt to colonise another planet will require massive support from earth for centuries. The fact that we cant maintain our own biosphere, which is perfectly tailored to our needs, suggests that the likelihood of survival in a far more hostile environment is slim.

If Bezos and Musk were serious theyd be spending that money on stabilising the environment at home and building a foundation for future expansion rather than indulging in fantasies.

FWIW, it seems clear that Biden is suffering from cognitive impairment, the same is true for Trump, but as someone who thinks the former is an appalling weak candidate, Im also praying that his lead in the polls is enough to compensate for the GOP's structural advantages and their obvious attempts to steal the election (again).

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

My bias? You made a medical claim about someone you have never met, are you qualified to diagnose someone with dementia?

So you can watch Bidens brilliant speech and claim he has dementia yet you claim Trump will win even after his rant about seals and sharks?

It is an observation. Based on a number of interviews and media activity over a number of months. Others have suggested it to me, based on his patterns of speech and behaviour that is similar to their family members that have or had dementia. And one swallow does not a summer make.

Trump supporters don't seem to care about anything he says or does. Seals, camera, reporter, grabbing women, covfefe, the prejudices, his Obama complex, the reaction to the race riots, questions over his mental faculties. It appears as if they don't care. Just like in the last election. That too is an observation based on patterns of behaviour.

I think Biden was not the best choice available to the Dems but that is irrelevant. As of now, I am more confident of Trump winning that I am of Biden winning.