GE2020 Kildare South

L1011 · 10-02-2020 01:24AM

Nosnon wrote: »

Hey L1011. Can you try answer a question for me about distributing votes?

I can *try*. And if you ask here and I'm wrong someone will correct me.

Ken. · 10-02-2020 01:27AM

The quota is 100
A gets 110
B gets 50
C gets 50
D gets 50
E gets 50

After distributing the 10 votes from A
B is on 54
C is on 53
D is on 52
E is on 51

So for the 3rd count E is eliminated. What of E's votes are distributed. The original 50, the 1 he got in the distribution or all 51.

Roadtoad · 10-02-2020 01:40AM

Nosnon wrote: »

The quota is 100
A gets 110
B gets 50
C gets 50
D gets 50
E gets 50

After distributing the 10 votes from A
B is on 54
C is on 53
D is on 52
E is on 51

So for the 3rd count E is eliminated. What of E's votes are distributed. The original 50, the 1 he got in the distribution or all 51.

All 51 are distributed, that show a second preference. If the second preference is already in or out, the third preference is used.
Every voters bit of paper ends up in a winners pile or the best placed loser, if they complete all the voting choices (1-12 or whatever).

Ken. · 10-02-2020 01:41AM

Roadtoad wrote: »

All 51 are distributed, that show a second preference. If the second preference is already in or out, the third preference is used.
Every voters bit of paper ends up in a winners pile or the best placed loser, if they complete all the voting choices (1-12 or whatever).

Thank you. Weird the sh!t that'll pop in to your head late at night after watching the results all day.

jasonb · 10-02-2020 10:21AM

L1011 wrote: »

His votes were transferred, so RTE - who seem to have been the only ones saying that - were wrong.

Thanks for your reply, I think it's just a simple typo, they said 'his votes will not be distributed' instead of 'his votes will now be distributed'!

Orion · 10-02-2020 11:31AM

It's hotting up this morning. McLoughlin Healy's transfers could well push Berry into contention.

chancer007 · 10-02-2020 12:30PM

#KildareSouth Count 5
Q: 11816
Distribution of FF Suzanne Doyle's votes
Berry, C: Ind + 375 6876
Heydon, M: FG + 443 9010
McLoughlin Healy F, Ind: +250 4471
Oloughlin, F: FF: + 2001 8177
Ryan, P: SF + 223 11295
Wall, M: Lab: +336 6984

McLoughlin-Healy eliminated

Tacitus Kilgore · 10-02-2020 12:32PM

Last chance for bets on Berry V Wall

Tacitus Kilgore · 10-02-2020 12:46PM

Wall out on count 6, Ryan has seat.

Orion · 10-02-2020 12:52PM

Berry in with a great chance now of catching O'Loughlin for the last seat.

Ken. · 10-02-2020 01:17PM

Just looking at previous elections. It would be the first time no FF elected in Kildare south.

boccy23 · 10-02-2020 01:18PM

Sean O'Fearghiall is the FF incumbent.

Ken. · 10-02-2020 01:20PM

boccy23 wrote: »

Sean O'Fearghiall is the FF incumbent.

Not to split hairs but he's not being elected.

boccy23 · 10-02-2020 01:21PM

Nosnon wrote: »

Not to split hairs but he's not being elected.

Not as such, but history will still show a FF TD for Kildare South.

StupidLikeAFox · 10-02-2020 03:35PM

Looks like Berry has pulled it off, in ahead of Fiona OLoughlin

boccy23 · 10-02-2020 03:36PM

FOL has conceded.

https://twitter.com/kfmradio/status/1226877233739988993

Tacitus Kilgore · 10-02-2020 03:48PM

Fair play to Berry, out of the woodwork and straight in.

Genuinely thought Fiona Mac would have had a better shout - but based on nothing but the feeling from her stomping ground of newbridge. I hope Berry gets a chance (like all elected) to make a difference one way or another.

muletide · 10-02-2020 03:49PM

Fantastic by Berry, a lot of people looked down on him as a single issue candidate but he pulled a lot of votes from a lot of voters all backgrounds across Kildare

He will be great for Defence, Health and most importantly Kildare South.

davycc · 10-02-2020 03:53PM

Huge congratulations to Patricia Ryan!!!
Her children bought her a week holiday that couldn't be returned a Xmas present..

And she whooped all the usual fg and ff suspects....a great few days so far.
I would have given her my number one had I still been local.

Tacitus Kilgore · 10-02-2020 03:59PM

davycc wrote: »

Huge congratulations to Patricia Ryan!!!
Her children bought her a week holiday that couldn't be returned a Xmas present..

And she whooped all the usual fg and ff suspects....a great few days so far.
I would have given her my number one had I still been local.

A huge and clear win, was always taking the no.1 despite needing a few transfers.

Just to add to your note - I am certain you would have offered Leo / Micheál the same sanctuary if they went away on hols too

sydthebeat · 10-02-2020 04:52PM

Delighted with Cathal Berrys win !!

Calhoun · 10-02-2020 04:57PM

The danger for SF is that they need to turn this protest vote into something more meaningful over the next term.

Surprised that Berry pipped O'Loughlin but considering what said by Aodh on the charities issue it could have damaged both herself and Doyle.

Roadtoad · 10-02-2020 05:25PM

Word from the SF back room (the guys calling the shots (oops) making the calls) is that Berry would fit as Minister for Defence. As an alternative, and as the best placed medical doctor in the new Dáil they might give him a shot (oops, again) as Minister for Health.

Edit: Joke, I think.

StupidLikeAFox · 10-02-2020 06:20PM

muletide wrote: »

Fantastic by Berry, a lot of people looked down on him as a single issue candidate but he pulled a lot of votes from a lot of voters all backgrounds across Kildare

He will be great for Defence, Health and most importantly Kildare South.

The 600 postal votes he got kept him in contention. I'm not familiar with how these work, but I'm guessing this is from the defence forces that are stationed overseas?

John_D80 · 10-02-2020 07:10PM

StupidLikeAFox wrote: »

The 600 postal votes he got kept him in contention. I'm not familiar with how these work, but I'm guessing this is from the defence forces that are stationed overseas?

All defence forces members get postal votes, not just those serving overseas.

The 600 postal votes were mostly from serving DF members who are Kildare south constituents.

headtheball14 · 10-02-2020 07:26PM

muletide wrote: »

He will be great for Defence, Health and most importantly Kildare South.

Not sure about health. The last two doctors who were ministers for health made no progress and some very expensive mistakes. Kildare south, his bad could be transferred back to laois so if you mean his town yes maybe.

Darc19 · 10-02-2020 08:43PM

Darc19 wrote: »

Unfortunately my vote is still in Cork, but Cathal berry is certainly the guy getting the talk.

If he can harness the military vote he has a very strong chance of taking the third seat.

Remember, Kildare has thousands of military votes. It's not just the current soldiers, but retired personnel and all the family members.

He also comes across as intelligent and reasonable and likeable.

Might put a few bob on him at 5/2

Damn, never put the bet on

But considering every other prediction I made was utterly wrong, I probably saved a few bob

aodh_rua · 14-02-2020 11:13AM

It'll be interesting to see what might happen if we end up having another election.

Here in KS, Heydon would get back in. FF would only run one, and given the 21% last week and probably a few more votes to come in, FOL would be straight back.

Patricia Ryan's hols were known, but a lot more widely now, and she was pretty transfer repellent given how long it took to get to a quota and Berry came from way behind as everyone fell by - it could be very different with less candidates and a bigger gap to overcome.

StupidLikeAFox · 14-02-2020 01:26PM

If Fianna Fail were running one candidate it would probably be Sean OFearghail, assuming he is not re-elected as CC. I'd say they would run two in a four seater.

Questions I would have are whether the the protest vote for SF and Ind hold up or would people gravitate back to FF/FG? Also would Independents like Cathal Berry/Fiona McL-H be able to put the same effort and money into a second election?

aodh_rua · 14-02-2020 04:39PM

I might an immediate second election - longer term will be more interesting with four seats, and with FOL odds on to be in the Seanad in the meantime.

A snap second election would probably mean SOF remaining CC, and being returned automatically. He may choose to go again on Thursday if it looks like no government will be formed - FF wouldn't have much leverage to stop him.

GE2020 Kildare South

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