CC3 -- Why I believe that a third option is needed for climate change

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2020 8:48pm

Climate change, it seems, is very much a first world issue.

https://www.aiddata.org/blog/climate-change-among-least-important-issues-according-to-developing-countries

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2020 8:51pm

Thargor wrote: »

Why do you ask? Have you upset yourself again with another imaginary statement I didn't make? Or are you just still seething over the arrogance I displayed when I dared to express hope that government and industry will take action to decarbonise the systems of the world as much as possible while theres still time to make a difference instead of setting us up for failure by relying on piecemeal individual action?

So, you do use gas guzzling means of transport to get to France then.

Tut tut.

posidonia · 31-01-2020 8:52pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You earlier said you drive a small car. This is not good enough. Electric cars are now the 'in thing'. Do your bit and buy one.

I explained why I continue to drive my tiny car.

Thargor · 31-01-2020 8:57pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

So, you do use gas guzzling means of transport to get to France then.

Tut tut.

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2020 8:59pm

posidonia wrote: »

I explained why I continue to drive my tiny car.

Sorry, but I've reported you to the Climate police. Explain to them.

Gaoth Laidir · 31-01-2020 9:04pm

posidonia wrote: »

Fwiw, I haven't set foot in a plane since the early 1990s - but I've only ever flown twice. I use a tiny car I intend to run into the ground - the best use of its embedded CO2 I can make. The house is heated by, well dried, wood. I too shop locally - I have a farmers market to go to on Saturday.

Akrasia wrote: »

I haven't been on a plane in more than a decade either. I car pool to work every day and I grow my own vegetables in my garden

Absolutely none of that is in any way relevant to my position that we need global concerted political action to tackle climate change.

Thargor wrote: »

I dont run a car, I cycle everywhere including a 20km daily commute for the past 8 years and prefer my holidays to be cycling based in Ireland or France so Id say Im better than most. Ive also eliminated most meat from my diet in recent years aswell and am debating about going full vegetarian.

These are all noble statements, though I really do wonder how much they are indeed choices based purely on agw, especially posidonia's. Having not flown since the early '90s suggests that you're not quite the jetsetting type, so it's not exactly a choice you've made. Or have you? Honestly said "I'm not going to ever fly again because I want to do my bit to save mankind" Likewise Akrasia, same question to you.

Thargor seems like the cycling type, the type I see cycling to work every day (though I hope he's not one of those tossers who refuses to use the excellent cycling lanes available. I know some are not so excellent, but that's another topic). Again, out of college a few years, not running a car, but again I wonder if that's based on saving on emissions or - as with many people - a lack of requirement/money.

For the record, I drive a 2.0 L diesel, fly to Europe a few times a year and love meat. I'll buy an e.v. when the price comes down from its ridiculously high level, not because I will be saving Greta and her generation but because it makes sense.

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2020 9:09pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

For the record, I drive a 2.0 L diesel, fly to Europe a few times a year and love meat. I'll buy an e.v. when the price comes down from its ridiculously high level, not because I will be saving Greta and her generation but because it makes sense.

Reported.

posidonia · 31-01-2020 9:14pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Sorry, but I've reported you to the Climate police. Explain to them.

There are no climate police.

posidonia · 31-01-2020 9:16pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

These are all noble statements, though I really do wonder how much they are indeed choices based purely on agw, especially posidonia's. Having not flown since the early '90s suggests that you're not quite the jetsetting type, so it's not exactly a choice you've made.

Well, maybe you know me better than I do, but I doubt it.

Akrasia · 31-01-2020 9:20pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Good for you, but the demand that Gov and industry should enforce your lifestyle choice onto all others smacks a little too much of arrogance.

So people who don’t act according with your impossible standards are hypocrites and people who do are arrogant. What a surprise, it’s almost as if you are just goading people rather than honestly discussing this issue.

The science, as backed by every single reputable scientific body on the planet, is right and we need to act to reduce carbon emissions. Given that this is the reality we find ourselves with, we can either ignore it and sleepwalk into catastrophic climate change, or we try to do something about it.

Individual action, while laudable, is whistling in the wind. There needs to be whole scale changes to the global economy to decarbonise.

Thargor · 31-01-2020 9:21pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

These are all noble statements, though I really do wonder how much they are indeed choices based purely on agw, especially posidonia's. Having not flown since the early '90s suggests that you're not quite the jetsetting type, so it's not exactly a choice you've made. Or have you? Honestly said "I'm not going to ever fly again because I want to do my bit to save mankind" Likewise Akrasia, same question to you.

Thargor seems like the cycling type, the type I see cycling to work every day (though I hope he's not one of those tossers who refuses to use the excellent cycling lanes available. I know some are not so excellent, but that's another topic). Again, out of college a few years, not running a car, but again I wonder if that's based on saving on emissions or - as with many people - a lack of requirement/money.

For the record, I drive a 2.0 L diesel, fly to Europe a few times a year and love meat. I'll buy an e.v. when the price comes down from its ridiculously high level, not because I will be saving Greta and her generation but because it makes sense.

You dont seem to be able to grasp this, those posts were all in reply to the geniuses who seemed to think they'd hit on the ultimate comeback to anyone expressing concern about what we're doing to the planet was to just ask them if they use resources in any way, if the answer was yes then they're hypocrites. None of the posts you quoted were claiming individual actions were the solution, its a total strawman argument to pretend they were.

Gaoth Laidir · 31-01-2020 9:21pm

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Well done on the veg. That's the spirit! Glad you've changed your view on that. Lead by example.

Final question before I lurk. Is it possible that changes in insolation alone were the cause of the warming and that the spike in Co2 was simply a consequence of that. Are there any other drivers of planetwide warming apart from insolation (and Co2!)

It's apparently unthinkable that this rise in TSI over the past centuries since the Maunder Minimum has had any effect on ocean heat content since. No, none of that energy has accumulated over the centuries. Global sea level was NOT already well into a rising trend during the 19th century. Oceans do not have thermal inertia. No, all the graphs below are fake.

Gaoth Laidir · 31-01-2020 9:29pm

Thargor wrote: »

You dont seem to be able to grasp this, those posts were all in reply to the geniuses who seemed to think they'd hit on the ultimate comeback to anyone expressing concern about what we're doing to the planet was to just ask them if they use resources in any way, if the answer was yes then they're hypocrites. None of the posts you quoted were claiming individual actions were the solution, its a total strawman argument to pretend they were.

It's not a strawman at all. Individuals such as farmers are under the spotlight now for their emissions. Greta's making her symbolic point by sailing and training it around the globe. The collective sum of individual actions is supposed to be the solution. All shoulders to the wheel and all that.

posidonia · 31-01-2020 9:29pm

Akrasia wrote: »

So people who don’t act according with your impossible standards are hypocrites and people who do are arrogant. What a surprise, it’s almost as if you are just goading people rather than honestly discussing this issue.

Bu, surely all his posts have been fact filled and lucidly argued? No, he's trolling alright.

The science, as backed by every single reputable scientific body on the planet, is right and we need to act to reduce carbon emissions. Given that this is the reality we find ourselves with, we can either ignore it and sleepwalk into catastrophic climate change, or we try to do something about it.

Individual action, while laudable, is whistling in the wind. There needs to be whole scale changes to the global economy to decarbonise.

Absolutely.

Meteorite58 · 31-01-2020 9:32pm

Moderator Warning : oriel36 your aggressive and trolling posting style, demeaning references to other members, and the repeated soap boxing of your ideas are not welcome. If you persist, you may be carded and banned.

Gaoth Laidir · 31-01-2020 9:35pm

I see Claire Byrne Live on Monday night will have a climate debate. The advert for it today was the usual compilation of token weather snippets, wind, rain, snow, etc. More hyperbole, I'm sure. I wonder if George Lee will be reporting from O'Connell Bridge in his wellies.

Mr Bumble · 31-01-2020 9:37pm

Thargor wrote: »

How is someone like you who drives a 1.6L diesel possibly doing better than me? Your future plans for a wind turbine? Does that mean you live in one-off housing in a rural area?

Solar panels, small diesel engine, cycle as often as I can, holiday in Ireland, buy local and my house is about 100 years old with a 20 year old bit added on. I give plenty of my time to conservation and hope to do more if I survive the upcoming catastropes you've been predicting. Anglers are usually very aware of the depredations of our "modern conveniences" which I believe are a much bigger threat to our well being than climate change.
There ya go. Beat that!
PS. I grow my own veg too and make excellent chutney from plums/apples/onions/tomatoes. Jam as well
I'll put my hands up on the spices which generally come from India or thereabouts.

Danno · 31-01-2020 9:38pm

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Are there any other drivers of planetwide warming apart from insolation (and Co2!)

Water Vapour.

Water Vapour accounts for approx 60% of the heat trapped in our atmosphere.

Here is a depressing read: https://www.3plearning.com/blog/deforestation-impacts-earths-water-cycle/

Large forests encourage rainfall and these trees soak up the excess. With deforestation, this excess gets released back into the water cycle causing increased rainfall in temperate regions, lower rainfall in the former tropics (they become desert) and increased water vapour makes it into the polar regions greatly increasing warmth there.

Interestingly, our "old foe" C02 is great for encouraging, wait for it... plant growth.

Gaoth Laidir · 31-01-2020 9:44pm

posidonia wrote: »

There are no climate police.

Mr Bumble · 31-01-2020 9:58pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I won't sleep well after seeing this

Thargor · 31-01-2020 10:17pm

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Solar panels, small diesel engine, cycle as often as I can, holiday in Ireland, buy local and my house is about 100 years old with a 20 year old bit added on. I give plenty of my time to conservation and hope to do more if I survive the upcoming catastropes you've been predicting. Anglers are usually very aware of the depredations of our "modern conveniences" which I believe are a much bigger threat to our well being than climate change.
There ya go. Beat that!
PS. I grow my own veg too and make excellent chutney from plums/apples/onions/tomatoes. Jam as well
I'll put my hands up on the spices which generally come from India or thereabouts.

I live in a high density apartment development sharing with 2 other people and dont run a car, you're heating a 100 year old house in a rural area and driving around in a diesel car like I assume you've been doing all your life. A solar panel isnt going to put a dent in that, how can you possibly claim you're doing better than me, why did you even mention my name in the first place? What point are you trying to make?

Thargor · 31-01-2020 10:18pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's not a strawman at all. Individuals such as farmers are under the spotlight now for their emissions. Greta's making her symbolic point by sailing and training it around the globe. The collective sum of individual actions is supposed to be the solution. All shoulders to the wheel and all that.

No individual farmer is being targeted, all discussion taking place is about the urgent reduction in carbon emissions required in all our production systems. Everything you post is exaggerated and misleading in some way.

posidonia · 31-01-2020 10:26pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This helpline was set up just for men like you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIP2vukNOPc

posidonia · 31-01-2020 10:29pm

Danno wrote: »

Water Vapour.

Water Vapour accounts for approx 60% of the heat trapped in our atmosphere.

Here is a depressing read: https://www.3plearning.com/blog/deforestation-impacts-earths-water-cycle/

Large forests encourage rainfall and these trees soak up the excess. With deforestation, this excess gets released back into the water cycle causing increased rainfall in temperate regions, lower rainfall in the former tropics (they become desert) and increased water vapour makes it into the polar regions greatly increasing warmth there.

Yup, I absolutely agree, deforestation has (amongst other things) a destabilising effect on the water cycle.

Interestingly, our "old foe" C02 is great for encouraging, wait for it... plant growth.

Forests grew just fine with 280ppm CO2. It's not lack of CO2 that's causing deforestation...

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2020 10:38pm

posidonia wrote: »

Bu, surely all his posts have been fact filled and lucidly argued? No, he's trolling alright.

Absolutely.

You, of all peeps, are calling moi a 'troll'?

You said you burn wood to keep your house warm, then claim to care about impacts of deforestation a couple of posts later. Something is not adding up.

posidonia · 31-01-2020 10:45pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You, of all peeps, are calling moi a 'troll'?

You said you burn wood to keep your house warm, then claim to care about impacts of deforestation a couple of posts later. Something is not adding up.

Yup, and it's you who needs to think...

Clearly it would surprise you to know people plant trees as well? And that given I'm sixtyish it might be thirty years ago we planted trees? And that when trees are planted they tend to be planted too densely (to allow for losses that didn't happen) so need thining?

I 'look forward' to your next fatuous reply with interest.

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2020 10:46pm

Akrasia wrote: »

There needs to be whole scale changes to the global economy to decarbonise.

What would you propose?

They tried increasing 'carbon' taxes in Chile and France, and this is the result:

EPhv7rGX0AAd3vE?format=jpg&name=medium

A movement that is only going to get stronger. They were told to eat cake once before, and that did not end too well.

.. for those saying it.

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2020 10:48pm

I would estimate that perhaps 75% of the recent increases in greenhouse gases are direct human impacts and the other 25% are coming from feedback processes like expanded methane releases from thawing subarctic ground, and I can accept that you could include some of that in the human impact if the human impact causes the melting.

Since I am "Mr 2:1" I would say take one third of that and add it to the 75% to bring it to 83%.

This still does not answer the question of how much of the temperature increase the greenhouse gas increase is responsible for. The big elephant in the room remains the apparent decision to downplay natural variability in the IPCC process, if that is a wrong assumption then most of their follow-on would have errors built in.

Does it matter? Maybe not. Either way you cut this, we are probably looking at inevitable sea level rises. I think any government that is not planning for that is neglecting its responsibilities. Trying to deflect it into a strategy of saying "if we all downsize big-time, maybe this will all go away" is both foolish and irresponsible. First of all, the mass of middle class people cannot easily do that, it's fine for people already living some sort of existence where work is close to home to boast about their small carbon footprint, but for millions of others, you are giving them the nightmare choice of ending their employment or making some unaffordable move closer to their employment.

And all this is to save the integrity of a relatively small amount of land close to sea level when equally large tracts at higher elevations (and latitudes) will become more habitable. In a much warmer world, the uninhabited portion of Canada alone is about the size of Europe. And there is an abundance of fresh water available. Russia may have somewhat less fresh water available in their vast sparsely inhabited northern areas.

We treat climate change as if it were all negative impacts, but there may be equal numbers of positive and negative impacts. Society can adjust. None of this will happen overnight. And technology may solve the problem in an unforeseen way. Some brilliant scientist may develop a workable method of scrubbing the atmosphere on a large enough scale to give me a chance to find out if my natural variability warming hypothesis is true or false. I know that if greenhouse gas levels stay high, the science seems unlikely to validate such a theory even if it were true, they will want to claim the warming as all human-caused.

Nabber · 31-01-2020 10:56pm

Thargor wrote: »

No individual farmer is being targeted, all discussion taking place is about the urgent reduction in carbon emissions required in all our production systems. Everything you post is exaggerated and misleading in some way.

Farmers are being targeted for methane more so than carbon.
That said they also get demonised for their carbon emissions.

Articales relating to Irish farmers:
They're telling us the herd needs to be reduced by 50%'
Varadkar’s praise for less meat in diet ‘demonised’ farmers
Why are beef farmers so angry
Farmers anger over 'propaganda' as schoolchildren told to eat less meat and dairy

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2020 11:03pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

But even if we were to have a historical record of daily temperature based within the confines of the true solar midnight and true solar noon (which would be complicated task in itself) there would be no reason to assume that long term temperature trends would be any different to what they are now.

I'm sure you are correct about that, the variation of timing of mean solar noon (or midnight) is within 40 minutes of 12:00 standard time at centres of time zones, so you would be tasked at most with shifting the filters for max/min by forty minutes.

There are already bigger problems to resolve in older data sets as to how strictly the midnight to midnight or any other system was actually applied to data collection. A careless or lazy observer can easily make a 5 deg error in estimating what he thinks the temperature might have been at any given boundary point between defined days, or in some cases, he can forget to look and be faced with an after-the-fact estimate (I am referring to 19th century data here, in more recent times at least in my Canadian studies the more urgent problem is the frequency of missing days that require an estimate to keep up the integrity of derived averages for months).

I still can't believe that the person you're quoting continues to make crazy statements about sidereal day being the basis of actual forecasting and data collection. This has never been a practice anywhere in meteorology. I would be willing to bet that nine out of ten operational meteorologists would not be able to tell you what a sidereal day was. The knowledge of astronomy within meteorological circles is down to the random chance of individual interest. Anyway, I am glad to see the first signs of adult supervision in the thread.

CC3 -- Why I believe that a third option is needed for climate change

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