Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

MrMusician18 · 30-01-2020 01:20PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

I agree with MrMusician18, who echoes remarks made by RobMc59 and others:

England will not become a "failed state" in any modern sense - take Scotland and NI out of the mix and you're left with a bog-standard, two-party, sort-of democratic-ish, somewhat elitist political class that will continue to run the country for their own amusement, and a general population that (for the most part, based on the last several decades) couldn't really give a fig or a f**k about what their elected representatives do.

You'd have to go back about a hundred years to find Russia at the height of its standing in the world. For your 30-years-ago analogy, you'd have to replace the word "UK" with "the Soviet Union" instead of Russia. The CCCP back then was in no way comparable to the UK of today, other having one big country at its heart that had annexed some smaller countries in the past, and then lost them.

So yes, the UK will break up. NI will re-join the EU as part of a United Ireland, Scotland will almost certainly achieve independence and probably join the EU on a faster track than Albania. Some weird stuff might happen with places like Gibraltar, Shetland, the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, maybe even Cornwall ... but there'll still be enough of England & Wales left, with enough cross-border (and cross-cultural) connections to ensure the territory's survival as an economic entity.

Whether an amputated UK can justify maintaining a permanent seat on the UN's Security Council, however, is another matter entirely. Taking the U out of the UK and the G out of GB to leave a less politically relevant EW gives every wanabee superpower a strong argument in favour of taking over the chair. I think it'd be the ultimate irony (and/or humiliation) if Britain were to be replaced by India at the Security Council.

I don't think the UK or England will lose it's seat on the security council but I can see a new class of security council member being created, the permanent but not veto holding type. England might get demoted to that type.

Seth Brundle · 30-01-2020 01:37PM

This is moving (United in Diversity)...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1222576142928023552

WomanSkirtFan8 · 30-01-2020 01:44PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How long before the Republic applies to become a member of the UK again? The answers are probably very similar.

easy answer to that Never.

Zubeneschamali · 30-01-2020 01:47PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

A failed state is one that doesnt have an effective government

The UK would be better off with an ineffective government, this one is going to wreck the country very effectively.

NIMAN · 30-01-2020 01:50PM

Not sure if posted yet but thought Naomi Long's leaving speech was very good at the European Parliament (even if it was interrupted)

30-01-2020 02:00PM

reslfj wrote: »

Is it this?
https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/henry-mckean-on-the-hard-shoulder/britains-identity-live-identity-brexitday-belfast

Lars

Yep that’s the one, shocking stuff.

J Mysterio · 30-01-2020 02:07PM

Arlene Foster will be on the Late Late Show on Friday.

FrancieBrady · 30-01-2020 02:14PM

NIMAN wrote: »

Not sure if posted yet but thought Naomi Long's leaving speech was very good at the European Parliament (even if it was interrupted)

A little recognition of Dublin's efforts would have been nice.

Frank Bullitt · 30-01-2020 05:58PM

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1222864870695227398

Not much to add to this, didn't know Davidson was a gammon.

30-01-2020 06:09PM

Not many people in that mirror.

MrMusician18 · 30-01-2020 06:11PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1222864870695227398

Not much to add to this, didn't know Davidson was a gammon.

Not did I know that he couldn't get a suit to fit!

Quin_Dub · 30-01-2020 06:23PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1222864870695227398

Not much to add to this, didn't know Davidson was a gammon.

Given his entire career, you weren't really expecting him to be a champion of Multi-culturalism ,Feminism and Globalisation were you?

Frank Bullitt · 30-01-2020 06:34PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Given his entire career, you weren't really expecting him to be a champion of Multi-culturalism ,Feminism and Globalisation were you?

Not quite, but I wouldn't have put him as a Farage sock puppet either

Quin_Dub · 30-01-2020 06:46PM

Gintonious wrote: »

Not quite, but I wouldn't have put him as a Farage sock puppet either

Davidson would be right up the typical Brexit voters street though.

I'd have thought that Jim Davidson would take a paid gig off anyone that would consider having him at this stage even if he wasn't a big fan. I somehow doubt his agent is stressed handling all the offers coming in

Frank Bullitt · 30-01-2020 07:24PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Davidson would be right up the typical Brexit voters street though.

I'd have thought that Jim Davidson would take a paid gig off anyone that would consider having him at this stage even if he wasn't a big fan. I somehow doubt his agent is stressed handling all the offers coming in

If it helps him to get a properly fitted suit, I am all for it.

RobMc59 · 30-01-2020 07:25PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Unfortunately, those sneaky EU bureaucrats have twigged this and have included fisheries in their own negotiating strategy.

If the UK won't agree to Common Fisheries, then the UK may not agree tarriff and quota free market access for fish from the UK. While the fishing industry and fish consuming consumers are important to the EU, its paramount concern is preserving fishing stocks. So without agreement that the UK will not overfish, the EU will have no choice but to stop buying their fish.

Did you read the attached Gov.uk bullitin?Thats exactly what was said there,protect the fisheries.

RobMc59 · 30-01-2020 07:44PM

seamus wrote: »

This does open the door for next week (or any time in the next few months), the EU arranging a cross-EU co-operation effort to airlift EU citizens from affected Chinese cities if they have no other means of getting out.

British people will arrive to register for assistance and will be turned away.*

When you make massive changes, you always get hit with consequences you never really considered.

The same will be true if there's an evacuation of EU embassies from a country where war has broken out.

*I actually don't think the EU is so hard-nosed, that's more of an American thing. Most likely they will include British citizens in any evacuation, in the queue behind EU citizens, and will retroactively bill the UK for it

That sounds incredibly petty,especially in view of the UK attitude to the same problem.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/coronavirus-three-irish-people-to-be-evacuated-from-wuhan-1.4156521

moon2 · 30-01-2020 08:05PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

That sounds incredibly petty,especially in view of the UK attitude to the same problem.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/coronavirus-three-irish-people-to-be-evacuated-from-wuhan-1.4156521

As the UK are still an EU member, this is definitely an expectation and it's great to see it happening! I hope it continues during the next year and a long term agreement can be reached.

What the OP described could be considered petty, but do keep in mind it's a personal opinion and not an EU position. I don't call that out for your benefit, but I have seen countless posters respond to personal opinions of that nature saying "that's another reason to support why we're leaving the EU. The EU is a monster".

Whatever the eventual outcome is, it will be the product of negotiations with the UK, taking into account any MFN clauses with other countries. If we end up with a recipricol agreement, then great!

An Ciarraioch · 30-01-2020 08:06PM

Barnier is set to recommend an Association Agreement as the preferred negotiating framework, along the lines of the current relationship with Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barnier/eus-barnier-eyes-loose-association-deal-as-basis-for-new-british-ties-idUSKBN1ZS1P1

ThePanjandrum · 30-01-2020 08:12PM

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

easy answer to that Never.

Thank you. You're the first to see the obvious answer.

RobMc59 · 30-01-2020 08:13PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Barnier is set to recommend an Association Agreement as the preferred negotiating framework, along the lines of the current relationship with Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barnier/eus-barnier-eyes-loose-association-deal-as-basis-for-new-british-ties-idUSKBN1ZS1P1

That sounds very civilised and hopefully can be the basis for a mutually acceptable deal.

eire4 · 30-01-2020 08:13PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Barnier is set to recommend an Association Agreement as the preferred negotiating framework, along the lines of the current relationship with Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barnier/eus-barnier-eyes-loose-association-deal-as-basis-for-new-british-ties-idUSKBN1ZS1P1

The last line struck me there when he talks about the implementation of the withdrawal agreement. Probably rightly so there is a lack of trust on the EU side.

SantaCruz · 30-01-2020 08:36PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Thank you. You're the first to see the obvious answer.

The difference is that England enslaved and raped Ireland and its people and left us a famine-ridden, impoverished, backward, post-colonial dump.

Conversely, the EU saved the UK from economic ruin and allowed it become one of the most successful economies in the world.

That you would conflate these scenarios speaks volumes.

RobMc59 · 30-01-2020 08:54PM

eire4 wrote: »

The last line struck me there when he talks about the implementation of the withdrawal agreement. Probably rightly so there is a lack of trust on the EU side.

I think in any such scenario,the UK will be required to give cast iron,watertight undertaking to adhere to any agreement-I doubt `cross my heart and hope to die if I tell a lie`won`t cut it.

black forest · 30-01-2020 09:05PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Barnier is set to recommend an Association Agreement as the preferred negotiating framework, along the lines of the current relationship with Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barnier/eus-barnier-eyes-loose-association-deal-as-basis-for-new-british-ties-idUSKBN1ZS1P1

This is a quite sensible approach of the EU and Barnier. More about it...

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1222879561492332544?s=21

For better reading the whole text.

If Johnson can get around the Tory hardliners this would open up a completely new possibility. A framework to furnish this skeleton of a house with furniture of his choice. After getting the twelve strands of the coming negotiations in one row of course. But this would get a lot of pressure out of the timing as a lot of the ‘furniture‘ could get added even after 2020. Without the permanent hassle of something like the ever moving of the more than 100 treaties the Swiss have with the EU.

Very interesting, the EU never stops to surprise me.😉

Professor Moriarty · 30-01-2020 09:10PM

Wonderful mood music so far. All good friends and jolly good company. However, it's important to remember that, as these negotiations evolve, a fundamental existential imperative for the EU is that Britain cannot be better off outside the EU.

Strazdas · 30-01-2020 09:14PM

Sir Ivan Rogers has given an interview this afternoon (before Barnier's intervention) - he predicts Johnson will be loud and belligerent this year, things to kick off by this summer with a real risk of No Deal by autumn.

https://twitter.com/PeterClemons11/status/1222882130008645633

RobMc59 · 30-01-2020 09:24PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Wonderful mood music so far. All good friends and jolly good company. However, it's important to remember that, as these negotiations evolve, a fundamental existential imperative for the EU is that Britain cannot be better off outside the EU.

You`ed probably have a point if the UK government had a clue what they`re doing-beyond a few `taking back control` mantras this lot don`t seem to know what day it is,let alone pose a credible threat to the EU post brexit

Professor Moriarty · 30-01-2020 09:28PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

You`ed probably have a point if the UK government had a clue what they`re doing-beyond a few `taking back control` mantras this lot don`t seem to know what day it is,let alone pose a credible threat to the EU post brexit

Which in itself is a threat. I expect them to start throwing the toys out of the pram once they realise that they're not going to get everything they want. At this stage, I don't give a damn what happens to Britain or how they react but, when it all goes belly up, Ireland will be collateral damage at best and a hostage at worst.

ThePanjandrum · 30-01-2020 09:36PM

SantaCruz wrote: »

The difference is that England enslaved and raped Ireland and its people and left us a famine-ridden, impoverished, backward, post-colonial dump.

Conversely, the EU saved the UK from economic ruin and allowed it become one of the most successful economies in the world.

That you would conflate these scenarios speaks volumes.

A little article for you to read, please note the source https://www.socialeurope.eu/eu-membership-accelerate-uk-economic-growth.

Also, at the time the United Kingdom joined the EU it was the sixth largest economy in the world, it is now the fifth. So much for your thesis.

Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

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