GE 2020 Cork North Central

2016 Election Results:

Elected TDs and first preference share:

• Billy Kelleher (FF) 27.9%
• Mick Barry (AAA–PBP): 15.7%
• Jonathan O'Brien (SF): 12.2%
• Dara Murphy (FG): 10.3%

Parties and total first preference share:

• Fianna Fáil: 27.9% (1 candidate)
• Sinn Féin: 19.6% (2 candidates)
• Fine Gael: 17.8% (2 candidates)
• AAA-PBP: 15.7% (1 candidate)
• Labour: 7.3% (1 candidate)
• Green Party: 3.3% (1 candidate)
• Worker's Party: 2.8% (1 candidate)
• Others: 5.7% (5 candidates)

2019 By-Election results and first preference share

• Pádraig O'Sullivan (FF): 28.0%
• Colm Burke (FG): 21.1%
• Thomas Gould (SF): 19.7%
• John Maher (Lab): 9.7%
• Oliver Moran (Green): 7.4%
• Fiona Ryan (Solidarity–PBP): 4.4%
• Finian Toomey (Aontú): 3.9%
• Sinéad Halpin (Soc Dems): 2.5%
• Others (4 candidates): 3.3%

Interesting election coming up in North Central. 3 of the 4 elected TDs are not standing (Billy Kelleher went to Europe, Jonathan O'Brian has announced his retirement and Dara Murphy is off on his gravy train). With the strong vote at the by-election and with O'Brien not running, you would have to think that Gould is strong candidate to get in. O'Sullivan is a shoe-in. The other 2 seats I'm not so sure on. You would think that there is a Fine Gael seat, and Colm Burke did well in the by-election, but he's not the most inspiring of candidates, and the Dara Murphy stink still hasn't gone away. I think Mick Barry is done for too, so if I was calling it I'd probably say 1 FF, 1 SF, and then 2 of FF, FG, Lab and Solidarity for the last 2 seats.

What say ye?