Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

brickster69 · 05-01-2020 10:20PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

They are free to do as they wish but penalising teachers from the EU when you are dependant on them coming into your country is not going to prove to be a smart move.

Teachers from outside of the Eu have been paying that for years. Why should the UK discriminate against them ?

Leroy42 · 05-01-2020 10:22PM

brickster69 wrote: »

The UK is leaving the EU, why should teachers from other countries pay and EU citizens don't.

Absolutely right, they should treat the EU as they would do with any other country. And the EU should do exactly the same. Treat them as a 3rd country.

But its all academic anyway. There is no way this is actually going to happen. If they do charge it they will find some way to refund it. This is political posturing. Both for the domestic audience in terms of sticking it those foreigners, but also in terms of trying to put pressure on the EU who do not want to be seen to negatively effecting their own citizens.

SantaCruz · 05-01-2020 10:37PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

EU citizens face paying £4,345 ‘teachers’ tax’ to work in UK for five years

Here's the funny thing: the UK (or whatever is left) is going to end up having to follow EU regulations, plus their own regulations, plus have a stack of new rules plus another huge stack of exemptions for everywhere that leaving the EU is going to hurt them (which, frankly, is most sectors).

They are going to be drowning in new regulations.

SantaCruz · 05-01-2020 10:39PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Absolutely right, they should treat the EU as they would do with any other country. And the EU should do exactly the same. Treat them as a 3rd country.

But that would be the EU 'punishing' England. That's how it works.

ambro25 · 06-01-2020 08:37AM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

EU citizens face paying £4,345 ‘teachers’ tax’ to work in UK for five years

Populist government pushing obscurantist policies shocker.

Well, this will end up doing wonders for Brits' proficiency in foreign languages (an issue raised recently with links to international league tables, showing the UK in rocket-propelled free fall).

beggars_bush · 06-01-2020 09:00AM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

EU citizens face paying £4,345 ‘teachers’ tax’ to work in UK for five years

Does that include ROI residents crossing the border every day to teach in NI?

10000maniacs · 06-01-2020 05:09PM

I don't get how Johnson and Raab keep saying 9 months will be ample time to come up with a deal because the UK are aligned to the EU from day one. This top down strategy does not make getting a trade deal any easier. Johnson wants to be much more diverged from the EU on goods and services. That is the big difference between Mays deal and Johnsons deal. Leaving the single market and customs union is what he signed up to.
The EU are not going to give over free movement of goods without the UK giving up some of its former significant obligations in return.
So Johnson is going to have to start from the bottom up in his negotiations. The rules of origin from every apple to every zipper is going to have to be negotiated. Also no freedom of movement means no deal on services. This will take longer than the Canada/EU trade deal. Divergence is much more difficult than convergence. Easier to crack an egg than to put it back together again.

Zubeneschamali · 06-01-2020 05:31PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

I don't get how Johnson and Raab keep saying 9 months will be ample time to come up with a deal because the UK are aligned to the EU from day one. This top down strategy does not make getting a trade deal any easier.

Johnson may simply take the approach he took on the WA - give the EU a hard date and just accept whatever is on offer by that date. Let the EU do all the work.

Like the WA, this would be a bad deal for the UK, but Johnson apparently doesn't care as long as he Gets Brexit Done.

serfboard · 06-01-2020 06:17PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Johnson may simply take the approach he took on the WA - give the EU a hard date and just accept whatever is on offer by that date. Let the EU do all the work.

Like the WA, this would be a bad deal for the UK, but Johnson apparently doesn't care as long as he Gets Brexit Done.

And the newspaper-owning and other billionaires won't care so long as they get to keep more of their money.

I expect the British media to do their utmost to keep anything EU-related out of the papers in 2020 - and the newspapers still set the agenda in many ways. By February 1st, Brexit will be done - in the minds of a lot of British people - with the rest being just details. No more will be said about it until an agreement is signed - which will be spun as "A Great Deal for Great Britain".

Enzokk · 06-01-2020 08:16PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

I don't get how Johnson and Raab keep saying 9 months will be ample time to come up with a deal because the UK are aligned to the EU from day one. This top down strategy does not make getting a trade deal any easier. Johnson wants to be much more diverged from the EU on goods and services. That is the big difference between Mays deal and Johnsons deal. Leaving the single market and customs union is what he signed up to.
The EU are not going to give over free movement of goods without the UK giving up some of its former significant obligations in return.
So Johnson is going to have to start from the bottom up in his negotiations. The rules of origin from every apple to every zipper is going to have to be negotiated. Also no freedom of movement means no deal on services. This will take longer than the Canada/EU trade deal. Divergence is much more difficult than convergence. Easier to crack an egg than to put it back together again.

The UK is a broken democracy right now where logic has left the building. When you can openly lie without any consequences it doesn't matter really what reality is, it will only matter what reality the liars sell to the people.

Here is a thread on the upcoming negotiations and what they entail. As you posted, it seems fanciful.

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1214126123480735744?s=20

All tweets in one link here

Here seems to be a tweet at what Johnson seems to be looking at.

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1213911303741304833?s=20

So basically the same deal the EU gives to the least developed countries as a template. For a country that has had 40 years of integration in the biggest project of it's kind to the same deal that Sudan would get.

Strazdas · 06-01-2020 08:38PM

Enzokk wrote: »

The UK is a broken democracy right now where logic has left the building. When you can openly lie without any consequences it doesn't matter really what reality is, it will only matter what reality the liars sell to the people.

Here is a thread on the upcoming negotiations and what they entail. As you posted, it seems fanciful.

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1214126123480735744?s=20

All tweets in one link here

Here seems to be a tweet at what Johnson seems to be looking at.

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1213911303741304833?s=20

So basically the same deal the EU gives to the least developed countries as a template. For a country that has had 40 years of integration in the biggest project of it's kind to the same deal that Sudan would get.

Dr. Richard North said recently he thinks such a deal would be very damaging for the UK and almost as bad as No Deal.

Bit cynical · 07-01-2020 02:28PM

serfboard wrote: »

I expect the British media to do their utmost to keep anything EU-related out of the papers in 2020 - and the newspapers still set the agenda in many ways. By February 1st, Brexit will be done - in the minds of a lot of British people - with the rest being just details. No more will be said about it until an agreement is signed - which will be spun as "A Great Deal for Great Britain".

I think also the public there is sick of news about Brexit and papers will push other stories in their quest to make money.

An Ciarraioch · 07-01-2020 02:33PM

Australia rejects visa-free travel with the UK:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1214053982852636673

Leroy42 · 07-01-2020 02:43PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Australia rejects visa-free travel with the UK:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1214053982852636673

Sorry, what happened to cancelling FoM? How does visa free travel fit with that? So instead of EU citizens being free to come over there to take their jobs and also that all the unemployment benefits, they have Australians?

Zubeneschamali · 07-01-2020 02:45PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

So instead of EU citizens being free to come over there to take their jobs and also that all the unemployment benefits, they have Australians?

Yes, because, you see, Australians are just Brits they exported a long time ago. And they speak English, more or less.

Igotadose · 07-01-2020 02:51PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Sorry, what happened to cancelling FoM? How does visa free travel fit with that? So instead of EU citizens being free to come over there to take their jobs and also that all the unemployment benefits, they have Australians?

Is PM Morrison just pandering to fears of an influx of UK types into Oz taking away jobs as the UK economy falters post-Brexit?

Imreoir2 · 07-01-2020 02:55PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Sorry, what happened to cancelling FoM? How does visa free travel fit with that? So instead of EU citizens being free to come over there to take their jobs and also that all the unemployment benefits, they have Australians?

There are those that see FoM as a problem only depending on who it allows in. They think that the benefits of FoM with a group of countries that include those scary Romanians and will include the Turks and Albanians any day now, can be replaced by having an agreement with the "right" countries, such as a CANZUK agreement.

Unfortunatly for them, it seems A is out, NZ will probably be out too now. Still, CUK could work...

Zubeneschamali · 07-01-2020 02:55PM

Australia is the supposed model for the UK's proposed new points-based system of immigration for qualified people. If the English think it is so great, why should the Ozzies give them a bye?

Leroy42 · 07-01-2020 02:57PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, because, you see, Australians are just Brits they exported a long time ago. And they speak English, more or less.

It really does boil that to that doesn't it? It makes no sense otherwise. How can anyone who defended the ended of FoM not be aghast that this was even an option put to the Australians?

And we already know that India will be looking for increased access to travel and work. You can be sure that they will see this and include FoM in any of their demands. (as should every other country that starts to negotiate with the UK, which of course includes the EU!)

Nody · 07-01-2020 03:21PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Australia is the supposed model for the UK's proposed new points-based system of immigration for qualified people. If the English think it is so great, why should the Ozzies give them a bye?

Because it's for them foreign people don't ya know; we white people should get a walk straight through.

ambro25 · 07-01-2020 03:37PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Australia rejects visa-free travel with the UK:

Aye, saw that earlier today, and posted it elsewhere, dubbing the refusal of AU to contenance mass immigration of British unskilled immigrants quite the irony, in the circumstances.

The Leaver reply:

The irony is on you for bringing it up. There is no reason to think that the UK is entitled to any exceptionalism beyond that which can be agreed between two willing negotiating partners such as the UK and Australia, or the UK and the EU27. Whatever is agreed can suit the circumstances of the individual nations with compromise as appropriate to the overall negotiating objectives. It's strange to imagine that all UK citizens should be able to wander in and out of Australia without Australia agreeing to it, but it's not ironic

Obviously the fact that a UK-AU FoM has long been advocated -very publicly- as an essential component of the post-Brexit UK-AU relationship pursued by the UK, must have passed him by.

So I referred him to Lizz Truss speeches back in September 2019 (a non-exhaustive, but representative, example). Can't hardly wait for the exploding head once the India-UK (*with* FoM) gets underway.

Strazdas · 07-01-2020 03:39PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

There are those that see FoM as a problem only depending on who it allows in. They think that the benefits of FoM with a group of countries that include those scary Romanians and will include the Turks and Albanians any day now, can be replaced by having an agreement with the "right" countries, such as a CANZUK agreement.

Unfortunatly for them, it seems A is out, NZ will probably be out too now. Still, CUK could work...

Though these people lurched so much to the far right that even white Christians from central and eastern Europe were most unwelcome.

johnnyskeleton · 07-01-2020 05:13PM

Enzokk wrote: »

So basically the same deal the EU gives to the least developed countries as a template. For a country that has had 40 years of integration in the biggest project of it's kind to the same deal that Sudan would get.

Strazdas wrote: »

Dr. Richard North said recently he thinks such a deal would be very damaging for the UK and almost as bad as No Deal.

Not only would it be damaging to the UK economy, but the EU wouldnt be allowed to offer it to the UK unilaterally as it is a special scheme to help developing nations (WTO special and differential treatment provisions).

Moreover, why would the EU even want to do that? The only option I can see is a free trade deal ala Canada where there isnt absolute and future binding regulatory allignment, but there is mutual recognition of standards for almost all goods. Services excluded, and the price of same is the UK will continue to pay structural funding to the less well off EU states, albeit directly to them and in possibly lesser amounts.

First Up · 07-01-2020 05:28PM

The UK tried the mutual recognition thing way back. They actually thought it would sail through - hence the super confident predictions about quickest deal ever etc.

It didn't take long for the EU to relieve them of that notion, although it needed Ivan Rogers among others to sit some people down and explain the Single Market in words of as few syllables as possible.

serfboard · 07-01-2020 07:46PM

Strazdas wrote: »

white Christians from central and eastern Europe were most unwelcome.

I keep saying this too.

They're about to replace white Christians with brown Muslims and Hindus, which presumably they're going to be a lot happier about.

As James O'Brien said: "Not everyone who voted for Brexit is a racist, but I haven't met any racists who didn't".

reslfj · 07-01-2020 08:27PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

..... the price of same is the UK will continue to pay structural funding to the less well off EU states, albeit directly to them and in possibly lesser amounts.

Everything related to trade or is a condition for a trade deal will be directly with the EU and will paid to the EU. Individual members must operate via Brussels.

Lars

Lemming · 07-01-2020 09:18PM

ambro25 wrote: »

Aye, saw that earlier today, and posted it elsewhere, dubbing the refusal of AU to contenance mass immigration of British unskilled immigrants quite the irony, in the circumstances.

The Leaver reply:
Obviously the fact that a UK-AU FoM has long been advocated -very publicly- as an essential component of the post-Brexit UK-AU relationship pursued by the UK, must have passed him by.

So I referred him to Lizz Truss speeches back in September 2019 (a non-exhaustive, but representative, example). Can't hardly wait for the exploding head once the India-UK (*with* FoM) gets underway.

I've seen a couple of exchanges pretty much word-for-word like that on twitter this morning. Didn't see any comeback arguments in reading through it all. Clearly these people knew exactly what they were voting for except for the bits that they weren't aware they were voting for.

Strazdas · 07-01-2020 10:10PM

Lemming wrote: »

I've seen a couple of exchanges pretty much word-for-word like that on twitter this morning. Didn't see any comeback arguments in reading through it all. Clearly these people knew exactly what they were voting for except for the bits that they weren't aware they were voting for.

And even if they "knew what they were voting for", what would be to stop them changing their minds?

They have this frankly bizarre notion that to change your mind after voting in a referendum would be totally reprehensible and 'an insult to democracy' (hence every single one of them doubling down on their original vote).

CrabRevolution · 08-01-2020 12:07PM

There seems to be a belief among some Brexiters that Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are about to enthusiastically fall into line as part of an English speaking front, cooperating against the world. They always talk about the UK leading this effort too, never being an equal member.

The fantasy also occasionally includes the USA somehow. Even on this forum we've seen pro brexit posters back up their arguments with "What happens when the USA and UK do blah to the EU?" as if the UK and USA are now in lockstep and equal members of a partnership against the EU.

First Up · 08-01-2020 01:30PM

CrabRevolution wrote:

There seems to be a belief among some Brexiters that Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are about to enthusiastically fall into line as part of an English speaking front, cooperating against the world. They always talk about the UK leading this effort too, never being an equal member.

Australia and New Zealand may retain cultural links with the UK but they have long ago abandoned any notion of sttong economic links. Their present and future are in Asia and their entire strategies revolve around that.

Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

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