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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,528 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Climate change is so bad that none of the storms live up to the hype:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,394 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for the feedback on both the warnings system and the gusts for Debbie.

    Probably what will actually happen is that the system will continue as before, or they will change to maps only, no defined regions. If we get another named storm with alert potential, I will try to come up with some maps before it hits and fine tune these warnings a bit more, just for some comparisons before and after. I am somewhat brainwashed into avoiding the term "warning" in my own work since there's a bit of a legal issue in our own jurisdictions about who should issue warnings, so I've always used the term alert in my Irish forecasts. Whether I am alert or not is an entirely separate question.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭piuswal


    So here's a question about the warning system, if they (or we here at Boards) went to a more fine-tuned system breaking down counties into parts, which counties would you consider most in need of regions and what would you propose for them?

    As a first draft of this, I would say that these counties do not need further dividing into regions for warnings:

    Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cavan, Monaghan, Louth, Meath, Longford, Westmeath, Offaly, Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Waterford.

    For the rest, this would be the proposed sub-county grid for warnings:

    Kerry north, Kerry south, Cork north, Cork south, Limerick west, Limerick east, Tipps north and south, Clare northwest, southeast, Galway west, central, east, Mayo northwest, southeast, Donegal south, Donegal north, Wicklow east, Wicklow west.

    Then if this grid were in use, a warning that did not break down the county would apply to all parts.

    Alternatively, you could make the system totally map-dependent, and just issue warnings for "all of" and "parts of" counties with a map published to show what zones were in what categories.

    For this past storm, I would imagine the orange warnings might have been restricted to some parts of at least Clare, Galway, Cork and Mayo, with yellow for the more inland portions so the map would have looked more yellow and less orange basically. If no regions were being used and just the zones on a map, then probably the orange zone would have been most of the west coast within 20-30 miles of the ocean.

    Also it might be helpful for maps to have two styles of shading for wind and rainfall, same colours but say solid orange for the wind warning and hatched orange for the rainfall (which in this case in hindsight may not have overlapped and in fact there was probably a zone of yellow wind and rain verifying in the space (north Mayo-Sligo) between them.

    Can see that Sligo, Leitrim and Roscommon often have north-south differences that might add them to my list of possible divisions. Give this some input and I will get a base map created (if the prevailing opinion favours breaking down counties and not just the map based system) for use here, and we can help fine-tune these warnings.

    Is this breakdown fine enough to make the system potentially more responsive, or would you need even more of a subdivision?

    How would you achieve this fine tuning ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The NHC have issued their report on Hurricane Lorenzo.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132019_Lorenzo.pdf

    I see that they're attributing the deaths of 8 surfers in New York to the hurricane, which never came within 3000 km of there. I don't think that's right at all.

    There is considerable uncertainty over the 140-knot maximum intensity reached for a couple of hours but they are leaving it at due to its impressive satellite appearance.

    It gives the maximum winds and minimum pressures for the Irish stations, including three private stations in the west.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,714 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The NHC have issued their report on Hurricane Lorenzo.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132019_Lorenzo.pdf

    I see that they're attributing the deaths of 8 surfers in New York to the hurricane, which never came within 3000 km of there. I don't think that's right at all.

    There is considerable uncertainty over the 140-knot maximum intensity reached for a couple of hours but they are leaving it at due to its impressive satellite appearance.

    It gives the maximum winds and minimum pressures for the Irish stations, including three private stations in the west.

    I went surfing in Lahinch a few days after Lorenzo was supposed to have passed by and the rip currents there were really powerful.

    I was only in 3 feet of water and on my knees and was getting dragged out to sea. If I was in deeper, it could have been the end of me
    Just because Lorenzo didn't make landfall doesn't mean it didn't have big impacts on the coast there

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Akrasia wrote: »
    I went surfing in Lahinch a few days after Lorenzo was supposed to have passed by and the rip currents there were really powerful.

    I was only in 3 feet of water and on my knees and was getting dragged out to sea. If I was in deeper, it could have been the end of me
    Just because Lorenzo didn't make landfall doesn't mean it didn't have big impacts on the coast there

    Rip currents can happen at any time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,714 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Rip currents can happen at any time.

    Yes I know, but these were a different beast altogether

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Akrasia wrote: »
    Yes I know, but these were a different beast altogether

    You want to see rip currents go to Porto Alabe in western Sardinia. Strongest rip currents I've ever witnessed there last July, with no storms in the Med.


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