Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty · 16-12-2019 09:51PM

Strazdas wrote: »

No Deal would be a big setback of course, but I would be far more worried about everything if I was a UK citizen and resident. The penny doesn't seem to have dropped with many that they have just elected someone who it will be physically impossible to remove for five years, no matter how bad things get - all opponents of his have left the party or been kicked out by him.

He is a de facto dictator.

Professor Moriarty · 16-12-2019 09:52PM

Deleted User wrote: »

England want to be part of the UK.

...dare I say, as do Wales.

Scotland opted to Remain in 2014. All recent polls approve this result.

What is your point?

Speaking of polls, any news of that Polish poll data you were asked for?

16-12-2019 10:04PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

It's the Telegraph. They will look to justify whatever moves Johnson makes. In this case, that means saying there is a current advantage to Labour.

While I doubt that that's the case, it's largely irrelevant in any event as the article clearly indicates that the intention is to change the boundaries to favour the Tories, not make it equal.

And the Telegraph again. No deal is still on the table. How are those new Northern Tory MPs feeling with industrial bases in need of repair I wonder.......

Boris Johnson to use huge majority to enshrine 2020 Brexit date in law - with or without a trade deal

16-12-2019 10:38PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

England want to be part of the UK.

...dare I say, as do Wales.

Scotland opted to Remain in 2014. All recent polls approve this result.

What is your point?

England has to grant Scotland the right to hold its referenda. That's the point. That should be abhorrent to you.

Spanish Eyes · 16-12-2019 10:50PM

TBH I don't care about the Imperialist England anymore not that I ever did. But what is the reality about the UK now?

It really is all about England now isn't it? Wales might be slightly a factor but only because English moved there to avail of cheaper houses or something like an idyllic dream of rural life. Scots were always independent of UK, they have different laws and so on could never figure out why.

NI is aligned to the laws of England and Wales.

Scotland has been more independent than we think.

CelticRambler · 16-12-2019 11:51PM

Deleted User wrote: »

England want to be part of the UK.

Of course they do - as the biggest country, they get to bully the other three.

Deleted User wrote: »

Scotland opted to Remain in 2014. All recent polls approve this result.

Ehhhh, I think you might have missed a poll from last week, when "Scotland" gave a massive majority to an independence party. At least as much of a mandate as the UK electorate as a whole gave for getting Brexit "done".

Deleted User wrote: »

What is your point?

That you keep banging on about the sanctity of the "nation state" and awfulness of being part of a socio-economic bloc, yet are completely blind to the UK being exactly the same kind of bloc - one where the very worst attributes that you (falsely) attribute to the EU are practised continuously by the English political class to the detriment of the other three constituent nations.

Letwin_Larry · 17-12-2019 12:29AM

Boris is effectively painting himself into a corner by introducing a legal provision to bar him from extending negotiations on a trade deal with Brussels beyond the end of next year.

surely by placing this ticking time bomb on the table, he knows the EU will have to play ball, or has the confidence of defeating Labour gone to his head? Barnier must by now realise he aint dealing with poor Teresa anymore.
a clever strategic ploy or just reckless abandon? Hmmm ...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-boris-johnson-leave-eu-remain-nhs-a9249341.html

Enzokk · 17-12-2019 01:38AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

That Nicki Morgan story is absolutely scandalous. I had no respect for her before, but this has conclusively proved she has no honour whatsoever.

Talk about unelected bureaucrats! Given a life peerage just like that. No need to be elected or face the public vote - we'll gerrymander it for you Nicki!

The UK public are such suckers to have put this lot back in with such a majority. Shame on them.

It gets better,

https://twitter.com/syalrajeev/status/1206703401029001217?s=20

She was asked whether she was offered a job or peerage on the 25th November and she denied it. So the journalist had heard she had been offered and wanted an answer. She just lied to him, she will do well in this government.

That was the morning she was defending the 50 000 new nurses claim when it includes 19 000 retention's and not new hires.

10000maniacs · 17-12-2019 03:19AM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

Boris is effectively painting himself into a corner by introducing a legal provision to bar him from extending negotiations on a trade deal with Brussels beyond the end of next year.

surely by placing this ticking time bomb on the table, he knows the EU will have to play ball, or has the confidence of defeating Labour gone to his head? Barnier must by now realise he aint dealing with poor Teresa anymore.
a clever strategic ploy or just reckless abandon? Hmmm ...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-boris-johnson-leave-eu-remain-nhs-a9249341.html

So Johnson sold Varadkar a pup. If the UK leave in 378 days time, they will be leaving on WTO terms. The EU are not going to sway. I hope they don't anyway. Good riddance to the UK.

Enzokk · 17-12-2019 07:20AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

So Johnson sold Varadkar a pup. If the UK leave in 378 days time, they will be leaving on WTO terms. The EU are not going to sway. I hope they don't anyway. Good riddance to the UK.

How? We get no border if his deal passes, which is what we wanted. The UK is also not in the customs union and won't be demanding, somewhat rightfully, a seat the the table for trade negotiations. We got what we needed, the rest we will just have to deal with whichever way the pieces may fall.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-12-2019 07:23AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

So Johnson sold Varadkar a pup. If the UK leave in 378 days time, they will be leaving on WTO terms. The EU are not going to sway. I hope they don't anyway. Good riddance to the UK.

The Withdrawal Agreement is separate to the trade talks and applies regardless whether the UK gets a trade deal or not.

So no, what Varadkar got applies regardless in relation to NI.

The UK now needs the infrastructure ready for the customs border in the Irish sea by the end of 2020 if December 31st is put in law for a trade deal.

54and56 · 17-12-2019 08:03AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

England has to grant Scotland the right to hold its referenda. That's the point. That should be abhorrent to you.

Scotland is a vassel nation within the English governed UK Union. Despite all the platitudes it is not free to determine its own destiny.

The English seem fine with this arrangement.

Imagine how the same English people would feel if they had had to ask permission from the EU parliament before holding their Brexit referendum?

The irony of how they shouted about the EU taking away British sovereignty whilst they themselves are denying Scotland the right to self determination without Westminster's permission is glorious.

robinph · 17-12-2019 08:11AM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

Boris is effectively painting himself into a corner by introducing a legal provision to bar him from extending negotiations on a trade deal with Brussels beyond the end of next year.

surely by placing this ticking time bomb on the table, he knows the EU will have to play ball, or has the confidence of defeating Labour gone to his head? Barnier must by now realise he aint dealing with poor Teresa anymore.
a clever strategic ploy or just reckless abandon? Hmmm ...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-boris-johnson-leave-eu-remain-nhs-a9249341.html

How is Johnson threatening to shoot the UK in the head with a bigger gun a threat to the EU. It's complete madness.

He's still negotiating with himself, or the ERG, which kind of made sense in a stupid way before the election as he had to prove his Brexit credentials. Now he is just threatening more pain on the UK and it is of zero importance to the EU. They will just look on and dispair at the madness.

seamus · 17-12-2019 08:13AM

Sturgeon is no idiot. After the Catalan mess, she knows Scotland won't get any international backing for a wildcat referendum.

But I expect nobody can stop Scotland from holding a non-binding advisory referendum. Just to stir the sh1t for Westminster when Scotland votes to leave the UK and Westminster chooses to ignore it.

Or she could just keeping turning the screws and forcing Westminster to publically deny a referendum every few months, to keep building SNP support in Scotland.

SleetAndSnow · 17-12-2019 08:34AM

Isn't Scotland a different case then Catalonia though (genuinely wondering). Keep seem them being compared. However Scotland was previously its own country (multiple times) and is in a union which they do have the possibility of leaving in their "unwritten constitution".

This is compared to Catalonia which is a Providence of Spain with its own culture yes, but has never been it's own country and unlike Scotland, is bound in the constitution that it cannot leave. It's basically like one of the 4 provinces here leaving.

Totally different circumstances in my opinion and plenty of leaders have already said they support Scotland etc.

VinLieger · 17-12-2019 08:34AM

seamus wrote: »

Sturgeon is no idiot. After the Catalan mess, she knows Scotland won't get any international backing for a wildcat referendum.

But I expect nobody can stop Scotland from holding a non-binding advisory referendum. Just to stir the sh1t for Westminster when Scotland votes to leave the UK and Westminster chooses to ignore it.

Or she could just keeping turning the screws and forcing Westminster to publically deny a referendum every few months, to keep building SNP support in Scotland.

Obviously nobody official is gonna be able to support a non-binding referenda but the international public support for one after everything that's gone on will undoubtedly be overwhelming, more so than there was for Catalonia imo

ancapailldorcha · 17-12-2019 08:35AM

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Isn't Scotland a different case then Catalonia though (genuinely wondering). Keep seem them being compared. However Scotland was previously its own country (multiple times) and is in a union which they do have the possibility of leaving in their "unwritten constitution".

This is compared to Catalonia which is a Providence of Spain with its own culture yes, but has never been it's own country and unlike Scotland, is bound in the constitution that it cannot leave. It's basically like one of the 4 provinces here leaving.

I think it'll depend on how the Spanish government view it compared with their own separatists.

seamus · 17-12-2019 08:49AM

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Isn't Scotland a different case then Catalonia though (genuinely wondering). Keep seem them being compared. However Scotland was previously its own country (multiple times) and is in a union which they do have the possibility of leaving in their "unwritten constitution".

This is compared to Catalonia which is a Providence of Spain with its own culture yes, but has never been it's own country and unlike Scotland, is bound in the constitution that it cannot leave. It's basically like one of the 4 provinces here leaving.

Totally different circumstances in my opinion and plenty of leaders have already said they support Scotland etc.

Tbh, they're all slightly different scenarios. The Spanish constitution guarantee the right of Catalonia to self-govern for so long as it's capable, but also expressly states that Spain cannot be broken up.

Ultimately though, even if the UK has no formal constitution, it is understood that the Scottish parliament is constitutionally subservient to Westminster. So just like Catalonia, there's a gulf between what a country considers morally right, and what they know is legally sound. Most nations were critical of Spain for the suppression of the Catalan vote, but supported Spain's right to disregard the results in accordance with Spanish law.
It would play out much the same way with Scotland (though I doubt you'd see the same violence).

IAmTheReign · 17-12-2019 09:10AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Kantor also conducted the poll I quoted - results of which were recent, and not based on an August poll. :rolleyes:

That link you posted refers to 'Eurobarometer 2019' and was based on data from June 2019. Report is available here :rolleyes:

Funnily enough when asked if they were happy living in the EU 84% of Poles said yes, and only 6% said no. Don't believe me see page 16.

brickster69 · 17-12-2019 09:11AM

What a great start to the day.

Extension to be made illegal and the BBC license fee on it's way out. It's only 9 am as well.

IAmTheReign · 17-12-2019 09:16AM

Deleted User wrote: »

England want to be part of the UK.

...dare I say, as do Wales.

Scotland opted to Remain in 2014. All recent polls approve this result.

What is your point?

I think his point is that by definition the UK is NOT a nation state. This has been pointed out to you multiple times at this stage and yet you continue to use the term.

lawred2 · 17-12-2019 09:17AM

brickster69 wrote: »

What a great start to the day.

Extension to be made illegal and the BBC license fee on it's way out. It's only 9 am as well.

So now the government will wholly own the funding model for the BBC? More magic money tree stuff. Unless of course the ultimate plan is for privatization and/or for opening the BBC to corporate advertising!

One thing is for sure it'll be an even bigger government mouthpiece.

As for the extension being made 'illegal' - sure what does that matter when parliament can override itself whenever it needs.

GM228 · 17-12-2019 09:36AM

lawred2 wrote: »

As for the extension being made 'illegal' - sure what does that matter when parliament can override itself whenever it needs.

It matters because there is a Conservative majority meaning they dictate if it is changed or not.

Something tells me Johnson does not want any extension even if it means back to a no future deal scenario.

Zubeneschamali · 17-12-2019 09:49AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Why do you think Johnson is fine with No Deal instead of an extension?

The WA already allows Parliament a veto on any extension, so this legislation is just meaningless spoofery for headlines.

EDIT: I see downthread that he has taken the veto out of the WA, so this is repackaging it as a law.

Parliament could still vote it down, but they would have to actively repeal the law to stop a crashout, as opposed to having a simple yes/no vote.

Makes crashout a little more likely if its the path Johnson wants, but with his majority, he probably gets what he wants either way.

Chips Lovell · 17-12-2019 10:05AM

Ultimately this is a continuation of a (to-date) unsuccessful negotiating tactic of the UK threatening to put a gun to its own head. The fact that he's putting it into legislation illustrates how weak his hand is. If the EU found the threat remotely credible, he wouldn't need to.

Expect a year of the EU patiently and repeatedly explaining that it can't accede to unreasonable demands no matter how often and loudly the UK threatens to self-immolate, followed by a last minute climbdown by Johnson in December 2020.

10000maniacs · 17-12-2019 10:15AM

Enzokk wrote: »

How? We get no border if his deal passes, which is what we wanted. The UK is also not in the customs union and won't be demanding, somewhat rightfully, a seat the the table for trade negotiations. We got what we needed, the rest we will just have to deal with whichever way the pieces may fall.

A hard Brexit would be a disasterous for us, border or no border.

Enzokk · 17-12-2019 10:25AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

A hard Brexit would be a disasterous for us, border or no border.

It would but it is outside of our control. If we had 'trapped' the UK in a soft Brexit, while short term it would have been good in the longer term it would have allowed the likes of Farage to stay relevant and a later government to reverse course on the message of betrayal.

robinph · 17-12-2019 10:39AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

A hard Brexit would be a disasterous for us, border or no border.

Not sure about disaster.

If comparing to the effect it will have on any of the other EU 27 then yes Ireland is going to be majorly affected. But on the scale of disaster that the UK is inflicting on itself, the impact on Ireland will be negligible.

alentejo · 17-12-2019 10:43AM

I wonder if the EU could request an extension to the trade talks?

Enzokk · 17-12-2019 10:49AM

Here are the changes to the WAB that Johnson has made,

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1206868975512117248?s=20

* Giving Parliament vote on extending transition

* Pariamentary oversight of trade negotiations

* ‘Non-regression’ on workers’ rights

So basically taking parliament out of the Brexit process. Well done Jo Swinson, you voted for this by allowing the election to take place.

Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

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