Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

hometruths · 10-09-2019 01:28PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Whilst I think he has made massive mis-steps throughout, I do think that this was his plan all along. He could not have really believed that his tough man act would actually make any difference in the EU, what he was asking for was simply no possible to give and the fact that he climbed down so quickly on his original demand of only talking once the backstop was removed is a sign of that.

I think he knew that WA was a non runner at the current time, something had to change for it to get through. The numbers against had been reducing but he needed something else. Making the HoC believe that he was mad enough to go with No Deal, as he is still running with despite the recent legislation calling for an extension, is IMO designed to push the HoC into an either/or position.

And tbf, the HoC has for too long continued to say what it doesn't want, but cannot agree on what it wants. So wind the clock down but don't blink like TM did. But the HoC never believed that TM would go with No Deal so a vote against any deal was a free vote. With the clock ticking down to 31st, and now with parliament suspended, he can simply wait it out with the plan to turn up on 19th or whatever (the 11th Hour) with a final offer. WA (with NI only backstop) or No Deal.

Agree with everything you say, have always felt the push for No Deal was designed not to make the EU back down, but to make the HoC to feel that the only way to avoid No Deal was to back a deal.

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 01:29PM

Panrich wrote: »

It's not going to make the job any easier to be giving his opinion in public like this. His words will now be twisted to suit the purpose of the ERG/DUP. The suggestion needs to come from the UK and this risks spooking those who might be slowly coming around to the idea.

But there also needs to be public statements from the EU that this option is still a runner. So Boris can point to that and put more pressure on waverers to back it (if that's his plan). And as I said earlier, it's the one option that could get through the EuCo quickly, thus making Johnson's statements on the subject look truthful for once.

J Mysterio · 10-09-2019 01:30PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Telegraph is on Hogan's case. Good sign.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/10/european-commission-names-irish-brexit-critic-handle-eu-uk-trade/

It really is a stunning move from the EU that has the UK cornered. Screw Ireland and NI in this, and you are in a very, very bad position going forward.

listermint · 10-09-2019 01:33PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I'd say his days are numbered. Seems to me his plan for Oct 31st has failed. He is despised. Better for Johnson to fire him.

knowing Politics, Its always very useful to have a handy fool to take the flack for being the worst. Cummings does this for Johnson very well.

Hes not going anywhere as he is optically useful for this deflection.

J Mysterio · 10-09-2019 01:34PM

listermint wrote: »

knowing Politics, Its always very useful to have a handy fool to take the flack for being the worst. Cummings does this for Johnson very well.

Hes not going anywhere as he is optically useful for this deflection.

But exactly as you say - things are not going well. Fire Cummings and let him take blame.

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 01:41PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

But exactly as you say - things are not going well. Fire Cummings and let him take blame.

I'd say that option is being held in reserve for when (if) things go spectacularly wrong.

lawred2 · 10-09-2019 01:43PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd say that option is being held in reserve for when (if) things go spectacularly wrong.

I'd argue we passed that point

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 01:48PM

lawred2 wrote: »

I'd argue we passed that point

I chose that word 'spectacularly' carefully.

Until we've passed the 31st October without an exit, the other shoe is still in transit towards the floor.

LuckyLloyd · 10-09-2019 01:55PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Telegraph is on Hogan's case. Good sign.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/10/european-commission-names-irish-brexit-critic-handle-eu-uk-trade/

Top comments on that article a nice mixture of stupidity, bitterness and outright racism.

Zubeneschamali · 10-09-2019 01:59PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's a last chance saloon, beyond which is a very uncertain future.

He'd still need ALL of the rebel Tories to back him, which would be a good trick after how he just treated them.

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 02:09PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He'd still need ALL of the rebel Tories to back him, which would be a good trick after how he just treated them.

Many of them voted for the WA at least once. Some, all three times. Rory Stewart springs to mind. The nuclear button for a lot of these people would be the prospect of Corbyn getting a shot at number ten. Undiluted kryptonite for them. He may still lose some of them, but it's not a given that they'd all automatically vote against him. Especially if he can present it as a cunning plan that he'd kept up his sleeve and couldn't share with them at the time. Tories gonna Tory at the end of the day. And there are quite a few Labour MPs who'd support it too.

Water John · 10-09-2019 02:10PM

Those who voted for the WA, would do so again.

brick tamland · 10-09-2019 02:37PM

Water John wrote: »

Those who voted for the WA, would do so again.

Not sure they all will. Plenty have announced plans to not stand again so they will not be bound to their constituents to vote for the new WA as wont be requiring support for re-election.

I reckon most will vote against person that just sacked them. Probably wasn't a master stroke from BJ/DC

hometruths · 10-09-2019 02:42PM

Enzokk wrote: »

On the 19th July,

Labour is finally backing a second referendum. Is it too little, too late?

The confusion, manufactured by the Tories and press, has come in with the policy Labour would follow. They are not taking a position but will try to ensure people have clear options that they will vote on. For Brexiters this is obviously scandalous because in their minds if you believe enough and tackle the problem with energy and determination it will be solved.

It is no surprise the party of deceit is happy with sowing doubts on the opposition policies.

There are elements in Labour that wanted to leave the EU, but I think it has slowly dawned on them that Brexit in any form will be a disaster for the country, which in turn will make it harder for them to implement their policies. You still have people in power who believe in Brexit, but the likes of McCluskey is very much in the minority and once he sees the projections that made May pull back from the edge he will do the same.

In fairness, Labour are making it easy for the Tories and press to exploit the confusion. This Emily Thornberry - Shadow Foreign Secretary:

LeinsterDub · 10-09-2019 02:42PM

brick tamland wrote: »

Not sure they all will. Plenty have announced plans to not stand again so they will not be bound to their constituents to vote for the new WA as wont be requiring support for re-election.

I reckon most will vote against person that just sacked them. Probably wasn't a master stroke from BJ/DC

Unlike BJ/DC they'll put country ahead of petty personal issues

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 02:47PM

brick tamland wrote: »

Not sure they all will. Plenty have announced plans to not stand again so they will not be bound to their constituents to vote for the new WA as wont be requiring support for re-election.

I reckon most will vote against person that just sacked them. Probably wasn't a master stroke from BJ/DC

Their stated reason, in the main, was their opposition to a no deal brexit that they believed Johnson was pursuing. If he turned around and said that he was bluffing to get [whatever form he pivots to - assuming he does] a deal through, then they have very little reason to oppose it. They are still MPs and I suspect the likes of Amber Rudd, Rory Stewart and probably even Jo Johnson would vote for it.

It's definitely a numbers game and there's a good chance he won't get them, but there have been enough Labour MPs voting for the WA in its past iterations to possibly outweigh any Tory rebels. Many sit in leave constituencies.

Leroy42 · 10-09-2019 02:55PM

schmittel wrote: »

In fairness, Labour are making it easy for the Tories and press to exploit the confusion. This Emily Thornberry - Shadow Foreign Secretary:

TBF, the Tory position is no more clear Labour. Remember we had TM claim that no PM could ever agree to a backstop, before agreeing to one. That UK were definitely leaving on 28th March, before taking two extensions and even that she had no intention of calling an election, before calling an election.

We have just seen 22 MPs stripped of the whip and kicked out of the party because they don't believe in No Deal. A member of the cabinet has just resigned. How many resigned over Brexit from the previous cabinet? Not to mention there whole idea now is to threaten the EU with the chaos and economic hardship that a No Deal will inevitably mean, except for the UK where No Deal will have hardly any effect at all!

The Tories have a party within a party. They are just better at lying that those in Labour are about it. They firmly and totally hold a singular position, until such time as they don't!

Zubeneschamali · 10-09-2019 02:55PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

He may still lose some of them, but it's not a given that they'd all automatically vote against him. Especially if he can present it as a cunning plan that he'd kept up his sleeve and couldn't share with them at the time.

If he had a cunning plan which relied on the vote of those 21 MPs, why expel them? Johnson himself, Rees-Mogg, Patel and Raab all defied the whip this year and were not ejected.

He had a majority of zero before he expelled those 21 MPs and Amber Rudd quit. He needs every single one of them to back him at the same time as every single ERG member - not happening.

He will probably try, he is working his way through a series of options he gamed out beforehand, I am sure. But this one will fail just like all the others.

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 03:05PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If he had a cunning plan which relied on the vote of those 21 MPs, why expel them? Johnson himself, Rees-Mogg, Patel and Raab all defied the whip this year and were not ejected.

He had a majority of zero before he expelled those 21 MPs and Amber Rudd quit. He needs every single one of them to back him at the same time as every single ERG member - not happening.

He will probably try, he is working his way through a series of options he gamed out beforehand, I am sure. But this one will fail just like all the others.

I'm not saying he has a cunning plan. Just that he can paint it that way. If he wanted to spin their expulsion, I have a particularly Cummingsy way he could do that. Just tell them that their expulsion made it look like he was deadly serious about no deal. And thank them for their service in that regard.

I'm writing up my CV as super-spad as we speak.

Water John · 10-09-2019 03:12PM

The permanancy of such work is very precarious.

jimmycrackcorm · 10-09-2019 03:17PM

Boris is in a terrible bind of his own making. The core strategy is to run down the clock. Prorogation has backfired because of losing the majority, hence Boris needs an election before Nov.
An election after leaving when the **** his the fan will just make the Tories suffer when people feel the practical effects.
Either Boris will have to beg the EU for an extension or there week be the last minute deal with NI only backstop.

There's no negative for the unionists with that, it's not as if they're going to start trying to blow up their heartland of Larne and their farmers will continue to enjoy the benefits of being in the SM. Their members will come to be British citizens living in a UK territory. It's difficult for them to argue that they are cut off from the UK economic Union as they can also enjoy exporting internally in the UK market.

The DUPs position is simply based on bigotry, nothing else. It's their chance to overturn the GFA that they vilified and objected to.

Another poster alluded to an ERG member suggesting a backstop poll be held in NI. While this seems good because the outcome looks very favourable, it's not clear that bigotry would not prevail, but it's not a goer because there is no way to tell the Scots that they can't have the same.

Zubeneschamali · 10-09-2019 03:21PM

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

there is no way to tell the Scots that they can't have the same.

Well, there is. It will encourage them to go for Scottish independence, but since they will probably never elect a Tory to Westminster again, Johnson&Cummings probably don't care - it'd swing the Westminster maths back towards Tory dominance of the new United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland For The Minute.

blanch152 · 10-09-2019 03:30PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If he had a cunning plan which relied on the vote of those 21 MPs, why expel them? Johnson himself, Rees-Mogg, Patel and Raab all defied the whip this year and were not ejected.

He had a majority of zero before he expelled those 21 MPs and Amber Rudd quit. He needs every single one of them to back him at the same time as every single ERG member - not happening.

He will probably try, he is working his way through a series of options he gamed out beforehand, I am sure. But this one will fail just like all the others.

He is not as worried about the rebels voting for a deal, as he is worried about the ERG.

If he comes back with a deal - one that ringfences Northern Ireland in some way - the ERG have a problem in that Labour will give Boris the election he wants immediately afterwards. If they vote against his deal, he will remove the whip, automatically deselecting them. Unlike a number of the rebels, most of them want to be re-elected, so the current expulsion will give them pause.

Of course he loses the DUP, but the clever Labour play is to take his proposal, accept it, but amend the motion to provide for a referendum on his deal. Boris gets his deal and an election, Labour get an election and a second referendum. Lib Dems get to vote for Remain. All fight it out in a referendum and an election.

Professor Moriarty · 10-09-2019 03:31PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not saying he has a cunning plan. Just that he can paint it that way. If he wanted to spin their expulsion, I have a particularly Cummingsy way he could do that. Just tell them that their expulsion made it look like he was deadly serious about no deal. And thank them for their service in that regard.

I'm writing up my CV as super-spad as we speak.

Cunning Cummings. Cool name for a Machiavellian advisor.

Zubeneschamali · 10-09-2019 03:34PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Of course he loses the DUP, but the clever Labour play is to take his proposal, accept it, but amend the motion to provide for a referendum on his deal.

Won't work without a 1 year extension to allow a referendum. A referendum on a WA that has been ratified already is pointless.

blanch152 · 10-09-2019 03:38PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Won't work without a 1 year extension to allow a referendum. A referendum on a WA that has been ratified already is pointless.

If you are looking for a win-win-win situation, a referendum is part of it. The EU will extend to allow for a second referendum.

ancapailldorcha · 10-09-2019 03:40PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Won't work without a 1 year extension to allow a referendum. A referendum on a WA that has been ratified already is pointless.

I think 2 separate extensions are the most likely if the UK is destined to stay in the EU. There will be a short one initially to facilitate a general election. If Labour, buoyed by the remain parties win then they will request the second extension to allow for a People's Vote to secure a mandate to repeal A50.

Zubeneschamali · 10-09-2019 03:48PM

blanch152 wrote: »

If you are looking for a win-win-win situation, a referendum is part of it.

Johnson won't go for that, since Remain could win and he'd branded a traitor and a loser forever by the Brexiteers.

Professor Moriarty · 10-09-2019 04:05PM

blanch152 wrote: »

If you are looking for a win-win-win situation, a referendum is part of it. The EU will extend to allow for a second referendum.

He's said it many times and he was categorical last night in the HoC. He won't ask for an extension. Of course he might be lying, perish the thought.

Zubeneschamali · 10-09-2019 04:11PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Telegraph is on Hogan's case.

Phil Hogan, an Irish politician with a hatred of Brexit

:D:D

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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