Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

gooch2k9 · 08-09-2019 02:09PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Skirmishes with police and such. Violence can only get worse you would think, no mattet the outcome.

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1170421368002895877

I'd say them lads aren't too fussed about the Brexit situation. Just a handy opportunity to kick off. I can't think of one possible impact of the EU on my life that would make me want to attack the police.

ancapailldorcha · 08-09-2019 02:48PM

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Please bear the forum charter in mind before posting.

reslfj · 08-09-2019 03:03PM

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

...
... give them (the UK) their blessed no deal and when Britain inevitable don't pay their outstanding debts then shut down access in and out of the UK, both airspace and ports until they crack.
An economic blockade.

The EU27 has time and again stated that it is the UK's right to leave and the EU27 will not punish the UK. All valid treaties and agreements outside the those, that "shall cease to apply" in the words of TEU A50.3 (currently Oct. 31), will continue after Brexit.

E.G.

The long haul lorries will be able to get ECMT permits (but only for 5-10% of current EU27 traffic).
Planes will be permitted to fly over EU27 and make emergency landings in EU27.
EU's WTO MFN tariffs will apply to UK export and Calais will try its best to customs check it

(point 1 and 2 will receive a 12 month grace period by the EU27, but point 3 is Brexit day 1 in Calais and maybe a little later in Ireland)

But the raw facts are that any Brexit will harm the UK in many ways also outside its trade and economics. It will be chaotic after a few days / a week and diminish the UK production and GDP on the mid to longer term.
Note the transition periods in the WA will postpone most harm to the UK until mid/late 2022. The UK will de facto continue in the CU/SM until the end of the last transition period.

A 'No deal' will, however, be felt very hard and fast. It will inevitable be felt as punishment by large parts of the UK population (but self-punishment is all it is)

There will be an extremely urgent need for the UK to make some deals with the EU27. This will however not be possible to even negotiate with the EU27 before the main points of the WA text - citizens, backstop, money - have been ratified by the UK - full stop.

The EU members states have just 6-7% of their trade (and for some members even much less) with the UK. Almost all UK->EU27 export products can be replaced by equal products from within the SM or be imported using one of the 60+ world class FTAs the EU has.
Yes there may for a period be too few Opel Astras for sale in the EU27 (10% tariff is very much). But the owner the French PSA-Group will likely just sell some more same sized Peugeot or Citroën cars within the EU27 until the Astra production has increased within the EU27.

EU members export to the UK can be redirected to customers within the 445 million SM or marketed via the EU's FTAs incl CETA/Canada and very soon via the EU's new FTAs with Japan, Mercosul/Mercosur, Singapore and more.

The UK, however, will have no trade deals of economic significance. The Faeroe Island export of fish to the UK deal doesn't count here.
The EU27 will e.g on average apply 11.4% duty on UK fish.

For example, dairy products are taxed on average at 44.8%, meat at 17.8%, fish at 11.4%, clothes at 11.5%, and cars at 10%

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/com-2019-394-final_en.pdf

Even after the WA text has been ratified by the UK, the EU27 can't lower its WTO MFN tariffs without an agreed FTA deal with the UK about substantial parts of the mutual EU<->UK trade (WTO rule). This will take time - more counted in years than in months.

Lars

* Note UK assembled cars have only 25-33% UK added value, the rest is imported components or sub-components. A 20% GBP devaluation will only lower the cost of a UK build car by 5-7% ( 1/4 - 1/3 * 20%)

Ronan|Raven · 08-09-2019 03:10PM

I am convinced I am in a coma and this nonsense is not reality.

https://twitter.com/TheRedRoar/status/1170610941383385088

Raab rabbiting on about how they have solutions but dont want to give them to the EU.. for fear of getting ridiculed.
How can you actually negoitiate with this level of amateurism?

A Shropshire Lad · 08-09-2019 03:15PM

Ronan|Raven wrote: »

I am convinced I am in a coma and this nonsense is not reality.

https://twitter.com/TheRedRoar/status/1170610941383385088

Raab rabbiting on about how they have solutions but down want to give them to the EU.. for fear of getting ridiculed.
How can you actually negoitiate with this level of amateurism?

I stopped listening to Raab ever since he decided not to support the WA , that he himself had negotiated.

The man litterally cannot agree with himself !

Headshot · 08-09-2019 03:17PM

Ronan|Raven wrote: »

I am convinced I am in a coma and this nonsense is not reality.

https://twitter.com/TheRedRoar/status/1170610941383385088

Raab rabbiting on about how they have solutions but down want to give them to the EU.. for fear of getting ridiculed.
How can you actually negoitiate with this level of amateurism?

But that's the thing, they have no notion of negotiating. They wanted a hard Brexit and don't care about the repercussions because they'll be isolated from it.

This suppose deal scenario that BJ was on about non stop was just for the media and remainers who were easy to lap it up like Amber Rudd.

BJ had no intention of dealing and you could see this from his cabinet picks

J Mysterio · 08-09-2019 03:22PM

Rudd explicitly said that she was resigning because of (a) treatment of the 21 dissenters and (b) because the government are not spending time on trying to negotiate a deal.

She said 80-90% of the government focus was on No Deal planning.

J Mysterio · 08-09-2019 03:30PM

For all the Brexiteer bluster, things are going from bad to worse for them. Varadkar brilliant here.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1170699558248157191

Put up or shut up time. 'We want to negotiate with you, we're just not sure you enjoy sufficient support in your parliament'.

Kermit.de.frog · 08-09-2019 04:03PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Rudd explicitly said that she was resigning because of (a) treatment of the 21 dissenters and (b) because the government are not spending time on trying to negotiate a deal.

The competent ones are getting out because this is a dumpster fire and everyone associated with it at the end is going to get burned.

They are not doing it on principle.

They are openly briefing about breaking the law.

It's getting more bizarre by the day.

lawred2 · 08-09-2019 04:23PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

For all the Brexiteer bluster, things are going from bad to worse for them. Varadkar brilliant here.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1170699558248157191

Put up or shut up time. 'We want to negotiate with you, we're just not sure you enjoy sufficient support in your parliament'.

Not sure that that's Leo's business really. Until the HOC dumps BJ and his merry band of fools by a VONC or an election they are still the UK government.

I understand his reasoning but I think he's best not engaging in such talk.

ElectronVolt · 08-09-2019 04:39PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Not sure that that's Leo's business really. Until the HOC dumps BJ and his merry band of fools by a VONC or an election they are still the UK government.

I understand his reasoning but I think he's best not engaging in such talk.

It is in the sense that this is exactly why the previous negotiation with May amounted to nothing. She effectively had no mandate to negotiate.

Igotadose · 08-09-2019 04:54PM

ElectronVolt wrote: »

It is in the sense that this is exactly why the previous negotiation with May amounted to nothing. She effectively had no mandate to negotiate.

+1. Leo's pointing out that BoJo's got to be wearing his big-boy pants when he comes to talk. Talk is cheap at this late date - what can he deliver.

Personally, I believe he can't deliver anything. He never has. And the sooner the election (once BoJo can't force the no-deal), the sooner the back of these chancers is seen.

Strazdas · 08-09-2019 05:02PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Not sure that that's Leo's business really. Until the HOC dumps BJ and his merry band of fools by a VONC or an election they are still the UK government.

I understand his reasoning but I think he's best not engaging in such talk.

The backstop and the border are 100% Irish issues. The Taoiseach is not commenting on internal British politics

LeinsterDub · 08-09-2019 05:03PM

Under the proposal, Stewart would stand as an independent MP at the next general election but agree to accept a soft Lib Dem whip in exchange for the party not fielding a candidate against him. It is understood that the Green Party would also stand aside in Stewart’s Penrith seat.

Interesting development here. The Lib Dems plus semi lib dems and SNP would hold the balance of power

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lib-dems-to-stand-aside-for-rory-stewart-and-other-tory-rebels-in-general-election-m0cvdjlr8

lawred2 · 08-09-2019 05:04PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The backstop and the border are 100% Irish issues. The Taoiseach is not commenting on internal British politics

Indeed they are. The makeup of the British government is not though.

Headshot · 08-09-2019 05:04PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Interesting development here. The Lib Dems plus semi lib dems and SNP would hold the balance of power

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lib-dems-to-stand-aside-for-rory-stewart-and-other-tory-rebels-in-general-election-m0cvdjlr8

oh very interesting, anyone got a full article?

Imreoir2 · 08-09-2019 05:07PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Indeed they are. The makeup of the British government is not though.

The ability of the British government to deliver is very much of interest to the Irish government. Why bother talking to a leader that can deliver nothing because their own parliament is against them?

lawred2 · 08-09-2019 05:09PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The ability of the British government to deliver is very much of interest to the Irish government. Why bother talking to a leader that can deliver nothing because their own parliament is against them?

Because ultimately that's what you have to do.

Imreoir2 · 08-09-2019 05:14PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Because ultimately that's what you have to do.

You really don't have to waste your time talking to someone who can't deliver a deal even if they agree one with you. It is entirely legitimate to question how Johnson proposes to get the deal he wants to agree with the EU through Parliament when he has no majority and a section of the remainder of his party are talking about opposing any deal. If he has no credible answer to that question, what is the point of further negiotations?

08-09-2019 05:25PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Because ultimately that's what you have to do.

He's right to question it. Johnson can strike whatever nonsense awful deal he likes with the EU if he knows he could never get it to pass anyway, as a means to just run down the clock.

At least we knew May really wanted her Deal and could possibly get it. BJ is an unknown with even less chance.

An Ciarraioch · 08-09-2019 05:50PM

At least in this country, RedC, MRBI and B&A may vary in terms of their poll figures for individual parties, but are generally consistent when it comes to the range and trends of data. The last 24 hours of tracking the various British surveys on Britain Elects, on the other hand, suggests that UK pollsters have learnt nothing from either 2015 or 2017 - where the Tories had 10 and 14% leads yesterday, that has been reduced to 3 and 4% in further polls today, so are they wildly at odds in relation to weightings and/or methodologies?

A Dub in Glasgo · 08-09-2019 05:52PM

Headshot wrote: »

oh very interesting, anyone got a full article?

'Rebel Tories expelled from the party are in talks with the Liberal Democrats about a non-aggression pact.

The former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron is helping to broker a deal between Rory Stewart, an expelled Conservative and neighbouring Cumbrian MP, and the new leader, Jo Swinson, insiders say.

Under the proposal, Stewart would stand as an independent MP at the next general election but agree to accept a soft Lib Dem whip in exchange for the party not fielding a candidate against him. It is understood that the Green Party would also stand aside in Stewart’s Penrith seat.

At least three other expelled Tory rebels, including the former universities minister Sam Gyimah, former business minister Margot James and former attorney-general Dominic Grieve, have had similar talks with the Lib Dems about a “loose remain alliance”, sources say.

Although Stewart supports leaving the EU with a deal, insiders say Swinson, whose party wants to stay in the bloc, is prepared to consider an electoral pact with candidates who oppose no-deal, rather than just those who are explicitly anti-Brexit.

A senior Lib Dem source said: “There have been all sorts of conversations going on around what happens in an election.”

Last week Boris Johnson removed the party whip from 21 Tory MPs who backed emergency legislation to block a no-deal Brexit. Despite a growing backlash against the decision, Downing Street insists that there is “no way back” for the rebels. At least six of those expelled have announced their intention to stand down at the next general election but others have declared their intention to fight for their seats.

Philip Hammond, the former chancellor, fought back yesterday, saying he was not going to be pushed out by “unelected Downing Street advisers who are not Conservative and who care not a jot whether the party has a future”.

In an article for the Surrey Advertiser, he added: “Nor will I have my party taken from me by entryists and usurpers who have infiltrated the party ranks, in an attempt to turn it from a centre-right broad church into an extreme right-wing faction.”

The Tory rebels are considering forming a new group. The “Independent Conservatives” and “Liberal Conservatives” are among names that have been floated. The manoeuvring comes as the former Conservative deputy prime minister Michael Heseltine urged the expelled rebels to stand as independents at the next election.

In an article for The Sunday Times, he writes: “If sanity does not prevail and the prime minister refuses to reinstate them, I believe these MPs should stand under an independent Conservative banner.”

Sian Berry, co-leader of the Green Party, raised the prospect of an electoral pact with remain-supporting parties. She said: “We are thinking very hard about whether we focus our fire on each other or on the Conservatives, and they do need to be very worried about that.”

Capt'n Midnight · 08-09-2019 06:08PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Just to put this one to bed. Here's an actual expert in EU law on the subject.

If it was as easy as violating an EU treaty then couldn't the executive have done that already without needing a majority in parliament ?

And there is the minor issue of HMG becoming an oathbreaker, which may affect credit rating and will undermine their negotiators in any future trade deals.

10000maniacs · 08-09-2019 06:23PM

LiamoSail wrote: »

Given 52% were racist/foolish enough to vote for Brexit, it’s hardly surprising that a racist fool’s party can command such apparent support.

I think there is a general lack of empathy with the people who fall into the leave camp.
A lot of the leavers have no moral compass. Or no compass whatsoever if they are flat earthers too.
Don't laugh, its true in a lot of cases.:)

Harry Palmr · 08-09-2019 06:26PM

Phil Hogan will be the next Trade commissioner it seems

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1170686774785585154

is_that_so · 08-09-2019 06:32PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

At least in this country, RedC, MRBI and B&A may vary in terms of their poll figures for individual parties, but are generally consistent when it comes to the range and trends of data. The last 24 hours of tracking the various British surveys on Britain Elects, on the other hand, suggests that UK pollsters have learnt nothing from either 2015 or 2017 - where the Tories had 10 and 14% leads yesterday, that has been reduced to 3 and 4% in further polls today, so are they wildly at odds in relation to weightings and/or methodologies?

Quite a few , pollsters and others, have said the outcome is going to be very difficult to call accurately and these polls clearly agree. The 12% from a few days back was based on data from 23 August.

is_that_so · 08-09-2019 06:38PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Not sure that that's Leo's business really. Until the HOC dumps BJ and his merry band of fools by a VONC or an election they are still the UK government.

I understand his reasoning but I think he's best not engaging in such talk.

He's always done that type of talking, usually quite loose. Been curtailed since he became Taoiseach but it is still there just below the surface! No issue with it here with a spoofer like Boris. It is actually the right call in that context.

Joe_ Public · 08-09-2019 06:44PM

The most egregious polling errors in 2017 were in the failure to account for the major upsurge in young and first time voters that largely turned out for labour. First time or rare voters also helped to trigger the leave vote a year earlier too.

According to the guardian last week, there were 100,000 fresh registers on the electoral list in the space of 2 days last week and i wonder if the polls will catch up on it this time round, assuming they already havent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/more-than-100000-people-apply-register-vote-youth-uk-general-election

Labour are going to push this even harder than 2017 i suspect. Interestingly, there is a student population in Boris Johnsons own constituency of nearly 15,000 students and because 2017 election was held outside term time, it would not have yielded a huge number of votes. This time, they are mobilising that vote and it could yield to an interesting election for the UK's glorious leader. Here's hoping at least!

Call me Al · 08-09-2019 07:03PM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Problem solved for Ireland but the EU don't want britain free and it will kill the EU with trade

You are completely wrong.
Completely.
Teresa May had agreed a NI-only backstop with the EU. Once agreed back in Westminster the UK would have been free to proceed as it wanted and trade with whosoever they wanted.
But Arlene came calling and pulled those £1,000,000,000 reins leading to the UK asking to extend the backstop UK-wide. That it wasn't agreed in parliament in the first place is not the fault of the EU, Barnier, or any of the 27 other EU members. The Downing St's mess and the Tory party woes are not their fault either.

BorneTobyWilde · 08-09-2019 07:25PM

Politics are all about disagreeing with the opposition, not about what's best. May's deal was a good compromise, and it did enough to please enough of the people, but Labour did not vote for it, yet now they are crying out for it.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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