Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

sondagefaux · 06-09-2019 11:16PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

At the same rate they die those young become older and it is shown people get more right wing as they age. Everyone is a socialist when they have nothing. The young gravitate further right as they gain more to protect. The idea the young will remain left as the older generation die is not credible. It's an organic movement which would usually balance out.

Some have looked at this and declared that older people grow more conservative as they age, ignoring the fact that they may have been conservative when they were young as well. A COHORT effect is being observed here, not an AGE effect.It doesn't tell you why, what happened before this, and what happened after this.

https://quizlet.com/96240548/gerontology-flash-cards/

Forty Seven · 06-09-2019 11:16PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Just watching the Newsnight intro tonight and the deranged guy who ripped Pat Kenny a new one on the Late Late show 12 years ago was out in Scotland roaring at Boris Johnson to go to Brussels and negotiate. Just thought it was funny.

Is that the same guy who was shouting at him in Leeds?

Bit cynical · 06-09-2019 11:17PM

murphaph wrote: »

Deciding this issue through a FPTP general election would be rubbish. We know that the BXP could get 12% of the popular vote yet this could equate to zero seats. It's completely unfair. A second referendum is the only fair way to put the matter back to the people. It'll be unfinished business if they don't.

However every system is unfair in some respects. If it was our sort of PR as we have here in Ireland, people would be complaining that the Brexit party were getting seats. Under the current system they will get few or no seats and, unless they act very strategically, their participation is likely to reduce the number of pro-brexit Tory seats.

Strazdas · 06-09-2019 11:17PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

You'd think they'd have learned from May's romp with the DUP to be more discerning when choosing bed fellows.

This is sickening stuff.

Would be a disastrous move. There's a fair number of closet racists and bigots among their ranks.

Robert McGrath · 06-09-2019 11:20PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

To me here in ROI it is a bit puzzling to try to understand the power that the Press has across the pond in influencing people.

Seems to me there is the Telegraph, Sun, Express, Mail, all in favour of Leave, and then there is the Guardian that is the counterpoint.

I don't think there would ever be that much influence on public opinion here from the papers.

But maybe that's because we here are cynical and can see through the bullcrap. Dunno.

Let’s not be too complacent about the situation here.

Remember “it’s payback time”?

Forty Seven · 06-09-2019 11:26PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Would be a disastrous move. There's a fair number of closet racists and bigots among their ranks.

He needs bxp to take seats in the wastelands Thatcher created. They will never vote Tory but voted strongly leave. It's a marriage made in heaven for them. Labour has lost all respect with their flip flopping. Even now they offer nothing concrete. Bxp Tory alliance would dominate the hoc.

Strazdas · 06-09-2019 11:28PM

GM228 wrote: »

That's a great well reasoned read, whilst there are many parts worth pointing to this section really stands out for me on the myth that the UK will be economically better off outside the EU:-

It looks like they're going to end up as some oddball semi isolationist state on the fringes of Europe which nobody takes seriously : something akin to a Belarus or Franco's Spain. It's downright bizarre to see a modern developed democracy go down this route.

Strazdas · 06-09-2019 11:31PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

He needs bxp to take seats in the wastelands Thatcher created. They will never vote Tory but voted strongly leave. It's a marriage made in heaven for them. Labour has lost all respect with their flip flopping. Even now they offer nothing concrete. Bxp Tory alliance would dominate the hoc.

The BXP are a ghastly bunch of people though. A Tory - BXP pact would play well with the faithful but would look terrible outside the bubble (Farage is hated in Europe).

El Weirdo · 06-09-2019 11:33PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Would be a disastrous move. There's a fair number of closet racists and bigots among their ranks.

Yeah, and you could probably say the same for the Brexit Party.

Sardonicat · 06-09-2019 11:36PM

El Weirdo wrote: »

Yeah, and you could probably say the same for the Brexit Party.

They don't have closets

Forty Seven · 06-09-2019 11:41PM

Strazdas wrote: »

GM228 wrote: »

That's a great well reasoned read, whilst there are many parts worth pointing to this section really stands out for me on the myth that the UK will be economically better off outside the EU:-

It looks like they're going to end up as some oddball semi isolationist state on the fringes of Europe which nobody takes seriously : something akin to a Belarus or Franco's Spain. It's downright bizarre to see a modern developed democracy go down this route.

Nonsense like this just feeds the leavers. The UK is a global power and will remain so. Permanent UN security council member, nuclear power, financial powerhouse, major tourist destination and cultural behemoth.
This type of belligerent schadenfreude is just uncalled for and does not help anyone.

Forty Seven · 06-09-2019 11:43PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

He needs bxp to take seats in the wastelands Thatcher created. They will never vote Tory but voted strongly leave. It's a marriage made in heaven for them. Labour has lost all respect with their flip flopping. Even now they offer nothing concrete. Bxp Tory alliance would dominate the hoc.

The BXP are a ghastly bunch of people though. A Tory - BXP pact would play well with the faithful but would look terrible outside the bubble (Farage is hated in Europe).

I agree. I'm just pointing out how effective this strategy will be if they do it. I was talking about this the other day. It's what I see happening. I don't want it.

20silkcut · 07-09-2019 12:04AM

Forty Seven wrote: »

Nonsense like this just feeds the leavers. The UK is a global power and will remain so. Permanent UN security council member, nuclear power, financial powerhouse, major tourist destination and cultural behemoth.
This type of belligerent schadenfreude is just uncalled for and does not help anyone.

Nuclear power, yes that will work out well. What are they going to do?? Nuke Europe if they can’t have their cake???

Strazdas · 07-09-2019 12:13AM

Forty Seven wrote: »

Nonsense like this just feeds the leavers. The UK is a global power and will remain so. Permanent UN security council member, nuclear power, financial powerhouse, major tourist destination and cultural behemoth.
This type of belligerent schadenfreude is just uncalled for and does not help anyone.

No Deal would be unprecedented for any modern developed democracy. No country has ever just unilaterally ripped up its trade deals and treaties with all its neighbours. It would be a quite extraordinary development : more akin to countries being at war with each other.

Forty Seven · 07-09-2019 12:14AM

20silkcut wrote: »

Nuclear power, yes that will work out well. What are they going to do?? Nuke Europe if they can’t have their cake???

We were close to it in 1945 so lets not pretend this kind of thing can't happen. However, that is not what I'm saying and I think you know that. I just don't see the point of making out the UK will end up like Belarus. It's just not going to happen and it is quite insulting. I don't come on here insulting Ireland, I happily put up with the veiled payback for Cromwell stuff as it is probably deserved. I will however call out when my country is being belittled in a way that is easy to counter.

The UK will not be a marginal player. If it is it will be akin to the fall of Rome given our history. I doubt that will have any chance of happening without some kind of conflagration. I don't rule that out but as a consequence of leaving europe alone? Not going to happen.

ElectronVolt · 07-09-2019 12:17AM

Forty Seven wrote: »

Nonsense like this just feeds the leavers. The UK is a global power and will remain so. Permanent UN security council member, nuclear power, financial powerhouse, major tourist destination and cultural behemoth.
This type of belligerent schadenfreude is just uncalled for and does not help anyone.

So was the Soviet Union, so was Rome, so was Turkey not that long ago too. Circumstances can change enormously when idiots get into power.

At present it's a minor world power, comparable to France in reach and scale and that's all it is. It's not the British Empire, nor is it the US or China. It also amplified a lot of that power through the EU arrangements in terms of economic and diplomatic clout.

A bit of perspective is very necessary. It could well end up being a world power like Australia, only without the natural resources and entirely dependent on trade.

What's going on is without precedent. So the outcome is likely to be somewhat unpredictable and chaotic but none of the forecasts look positive, except for the imaginary ones.

I don't think the UK is going to suddenly become utter backwater, but it could end up an awful lot poorer due to huge self-inflicted systemic disruption and who knows where that ends up. It's a pretty bizarre thing to have done to yourself.

Sardonicat · 07-09-2019 12:21AM

Strazdas wrote: »

No Deal would be unprecedented for any modern developed democracy. No country has ever just unilaterally ripped up its trade deals and treaties with all its neighbours. It would be a quite extraordinary development : more akin to countries being at war with each other.

Well, it is a throwing down of the gauntlet of sorts.

Forty Seven · 07-09-2019 12:22AM

ElectronVolt wrote: »

So was the Soviet Union, so was Rome, so was Turkey not that long ago too. Circumstances can change enormously when idiots get into power.

At present it's a minor world power, comparable to France in reach and scale and that's all it is. It's not the British Empire, nor is it the US or China. It also amplified a lot of that power through the EU arrangements in terms of economic and diplomatic clout.

A bit of perspective is very necessary. It could well end up being a world power like Australia, only without the natural resources and entirely dependent on trade.

What's going on is without precedent. So the outcome is likely to be somewhat unpredictable and chaotic but none of the forecasts look positive, except for the imaginary ones.

It could also go the other way with the eventual break up of the EU. Uncharted territory goes both ways. I do appreciate what you are saying but we have a lot going for us going forward, once we get through this current problem, we have survived much, much worse as a nation.

07-09-2019 12:26AM

I was thinking about the possibility of a vote of no confidence motion being brought by Boris, against himself and his government, and it seems that he is so incompetent that he couldn't even win that!
Having seen what has come before, this is a perfectly reasonable possibility. He may win and be voted as incompetent! ( thus winning the bid to force a GE before the Halloween deadline).
But I would love to be a fly on the wall when the opposition decide at a meeting to plan to vote against the no confidence vote against a government who initiated the motion.

ElectronVolt · 07-09-2019 12:26AM

Forty Seven wrote: »

It could also go the other way with the eventual break up of the EU. Uncharted territory goes both ways. I do appreciate what you are saying but we have a lot going for us going forward, once we get through this current problem, we have survived much, much worse as a nation.

The entire continent has actually survived *much* worse than the UK has ever done and rebuilt itself from literal ashes after WWII. I'm not saying the UK hasn't been through a lot over the 20th century, but this WWI/II nostalgia is getting ludicrous.

I find the accusations of everyone else indulging in Schadenfreude about the UK tends to wear very thin when many of those on the Brexit side seem to just want to bring about the end of the EU. There seems to be an extremely strong sense of joy in some quarters about ideas of hurting the EU, damaging the Euro, undermining the Irish economy and so on.

All that anyone's ever asked was the UK leaves in a managed exit and doesn't cause itself or the EU serious harm. That's turned into a big load of ranting and raving and blame because nobody can just wave a magic wand and make the practical consequences go away, without compromise.

A discussion about facts, figures and practical and pragmatic solutions might be more helpful, but all we are getting is ranting, raving and rhetoric.

ThePanjandrum · 07-09-2019 12:28AM

Strazdas wrote: »

The BXP are a ghastly bunch of people though. A Tory - BXP pact would play well with the faithful but would look terrible outside the bubble (Farage is hated in Europe).

Ok, tell me why I'm ghastly.

SeaBreezes · 07-09-2019 12:29AM

GM228 wrote: »

That's a great well reasoned read, whilst there are many parts worth pointing to this section really stands out for me on the myth that the UK will be economically better off outside the EU:-

It stands out because "permanently" really sinks in the reality that some of the downfalls (and this is a big one) are more than something which is just temporay and can eventually be overcome, it's most definitely not a case of short term pain, long term gain.

For me the saddest part was: The hardships caused by years of austerity (a deliberate policy by the torys to 'improve profitability' at the cost of the most vulnerable in society.. ) has even been the subject of a special investigation by the United Nations, whose report is damning:

A booming economy, high employment and a budget surplus have not reversed austerity, a policy pursued more as an ideological than an economic agenda.

… much of the glue that has held British society together since the Second World War has been deliberately removed and replaced with a harsh and uncaring ethos.

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Remainers-so-convinced-that-staying-in-the-European-Union-is-what-is-best-for-the-UK/answer/Barry-McGuinness-1?fbclid=IwAR0QiekV13tPs0_g5igT1hQK3qGvqQQYq4GxXCZzkN1XlUmH03AkMVBxEGQ

A Dub in Glasgo · 07-09-2019 12:29AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Ok, tell me why I'm ghastly.

Do you want folk banned?

20silkcut · 07-09-2019 12:31AM

Forty Seven wrote: »

We were close to it in 1945 so lets not pretend this kind of thing can't happen. However, that is not what I'm saying and I think you know that. I just don't see the point of making out the UK will end up like Belarus. It's just not going to happen and it is quite insulting. I don't come on here insulting Ireland, I happily put up with the veiled payback for Cromwell stuff as it is probably deserved. I will however call out when my country is being belittled in a way that is easy to counter.

The UK will not be a marginal player. If it is it will be akin to the fall of Rome given our history. I doubt that will have any chance of happening without some kind of conflagration. I don't rule that out but as a consequence of leaving europe alone? Not going to happen.

The suez crisis of 1956 that demonstrated where Britain stood in the world and it has not changed much since. The last great hurrah of British imperialism.

Strazdas · 07-09-2019 12:32AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Ok, tell me why I'm ghastly.

You're a voter I take it? I was referring more to the membership ie. Farage, Tice, Widdecombe, Heaver, Daubney, Phillips etc

SeaBreezes · 07-09-2019 12:35AM

Forty Seven wrote: »

Nonsense like this just feeds the leavers. The UK is a global power and will remain so. Permanent UN security council member, nuclear power, financial powerhouse, major tourist destination and cultural behemoth.
This type of belligerent schadenfreude is just uncalled for and does not help anyone.

You don't get it do you? It won't BE the UK if they hard Brexit.. it will be just England (maybe wales) when Scotland and Northern Ireland leave to join the EU....

ElectronVolt · 07-09-2019 12:36AM

I also find this notion that everyone's indulging in some kind of weird Schadenfreude about the UK is largely in the imaginations of tabloid journalists. The general view at the moment elsewhere in Europe, including Ireland, is one of bewilderment and frustration about the inability to engage in any kind of sane manner.

It's like because the UK redtop newspapers and online echo chambers view the other 27 EU countries as some kind of enemies or through a haze of angry xenophobia and caricatures that they assume that's how they're viewed from the EU-27. It's just not true.

Most of the discussion about Brexit in the other EU-27 is actually pretty boring, technical and it's not getting anything like the coverage than it's been receiving in the UK. It's a blip on the news and that's it.

How can you negotiate with a party that keeps changing its position, agreeing and then unagreeing and now you've someone in power who seem to exist in a world of spin, waffle and trying to get one over on the other side with tricks and PR nonsense.

It's made it incredibly difficult to have a grown up conversation. I mean, we've just spent an afternoon with the official social media feeds of the leadership of the UK making bad jokes about fried chicken about the leader of the opposition. It's childish nonsense and it's not very conducive to solving this situation which is now actually a rolling diplomatic, trade and international relations crisis.

ThePanjandrum · 07-09-2019 12:36AM

awec wrote: »

It would have to be the same options as last time, it's the only fair question at this stage.

The proper choice is easy.

The first referendum decided that the UK should leave.

Leaving under article 50 means leaving with a Withdrawal Agreement or Without one.

Therefore, to be consistent the choice needs to be between leaving with an agreed Withdrawal Agreement and leaving with no Withdrawal Agreement.

Putting Remain on the Referendum when it has been rejected is undemocratic.

07-09-2019 12:37AM

20silkcut wrote: »

The suez crisis of 1956 that demonstrated where Britain stood in the world and it has not changed much since. The last great hurrah of British imperialism.

The Suez crisis was a real game changer as it put the final nail in the coffin of European global domination as France were also given a bloody nose by the US.

ThePanjandrum · 07-09-2019 12:38AM

Strazdas wrote: »

You're a voter I take it? I was referring more to the membership ie. Farage, Tice, Widdecombe, Heaver, Daubney, Phillips etc

I'm a registered supporter, I became one as soon as this was possible. I am as wedded to Brexit as any of the names you have given.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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