Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo · 05-09-2019 02:31PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

Mostly prison related as that would be my area of interest but many times they have overruled the government on prisoners rights. Voting for one, certain legal aid conditions for two and the nonsense around article 8 of the echr (which would be upheld in ecthr) resulting in a violent rapist being placed in a female prison.

I'm intrigued by this. Is their case law that I can look at?

BorneTobyWilde · 05-09-2019 02:39PM

EU and Ireland should just let what ever goods that enter N.I after the UK leaves EU to move freely within Rep of Ireland, but never to leave Ireland.
Police it with spot checks. As long as it's UK companies in N.I buying in product for N.I market then what's the problem if a pack of american gum crosses into Ireland.
It's a non issue in reality. Or just give Ireland permission keep its trade with UK after UK leave. A special arrangement only for Ireland.

Nate--IRL-- · 05-09-2019 02:40PM

Basically cut us off from Europe.

Nate

Tacitus Kilgore · 05-09-2019 02:41PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

EU and Ireland should just let what ever goods that enter N.I after the UK leaves EU to move freely within Rep of Ireland, but never to leave Ireland.
Police it with spot checks. As long as it's UK companies in N.I buying in product for N.I market then what's the problem if a pack of american gum crosses into Ireland.
It's a non issue in reality. Or just give Ireland permission keep its trade with UK after UK leave. A special arrangement only for Ireland.

That chops us out of the single market, feck that

Professor Moriarty · 05-09-2019 02:41PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

EU and Ireland should just let what ever goods that enter N.I after the UK leaves EU to move freely within Rep of Ireland, but never to leave Ireland.
Police it with spot checks. As long as it's UK companies in N.I buying in product for N.I market then what's the problem if a pack of american gum crosses into Ireland.
It's a non issue in reality. Or just give Ireland permission keep its trade with UK after UK leave. A special arrangement only for Ireland.

What about the integrity of the Single Market?

First Up · 05-09-2019 02:42PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote:

EU and Ireland should just let what ever goods that enter N.I after the UK leaves EU to move freely within Rep of Ireland, but never to leave Ireland. Police it with spot checks. As long as it's UK companies in N.I buying in product for N.I market then what's the problem if a pack of american gum crosses into Ireland. It's a non issue in reality. Or just give Ireland permission keep its trade with UK after UK leave. A special arrangement only for Ireland.

It will look something like your first suggestion, including checks at Irish ports on goods going to the EU.

Your second suggestion (special arrangement) is a total non-runner.

Enzokk · 05-09-2019 02:43PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

Mostly prison related as that would be my area of interest but many times they have overruled the government on prisoners rights. Voting for one, certain legal aid conditions for two and the nonsense around article 8 of the echr (which would be upheld in ecthr) resulting in a violent rapist being placed in a female prison.

I hoped you would be able to point to specific laws from the EU though, as some of what you mention here seems to be ECHR, which is not related to the EU. In any case there is a firm commitment that the UK will keep to the ECHR via Northern Ireland as it is in the GFA that they will incorporate the ECHR into Northern Irish laws.

It also allows that the European Court of Human Rights would be able to overrule Assembly legislation if there is inconsistency. We know how much the UK wants to ensure that all parts of the UK is treated the same so I am sure taking the whole of the UK out of the ECHR but keeping NI in it would be totally unacceptable.

As for the case of Karen White who I believe you refer to, maybe you can point me to where the ECHR was involved in the mistakes that happened there.

Sam Russell · 05-09-2019 02:44PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

EU and Ireland should just let what ever goods that enter N.I after the UK leaves EU to move freely within Rep of Ireland, but never to leave Ireland.
Police it with spot checks. As long as it's UK companies in N.I buying in product for N.I market then what's the problem if a pack of american gum crosses into Ireland.
It's a non issue in reality. Or just give Ireland permission keep its trade with UK after UK leave. A special arrangement only for Ireland.

It would be simpler to just close the ports of Belfast and Larne to imports. That would solve all the problems.

Of course you could inspect all imports into those ports but that would be the backstop. That would not be too big an imposition, would it?.

VinLieger · 05-09-2019 02:44PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

EU and Ireland should just let what ever goods that enter N.I after the UK leaves EU to move freely within Rep of Ireland, but never to leave Ireland.
Police it with spot checks. As long as it's UK companies in N.I buying in product for N.I market then what's the problem if a pack of american gum crosses into Ireland.
It's a non issue in reality. Or just give Ireland permission keep its trade with UK after UK leave. A special arrangement only for Ireland.

Completely unworkable if we want to retain access to the SM which we 100% do

An Ciarraioch · 05-09-2019 02:46PM

Tories would win narrow majority in latest poll,but Labour still very much in contention:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1169589557748228096

Enzokk · 05-09-2019 02:51PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories would win narrow majority in latest poll,but Labour still very much in contention:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1169589557748228096

All of these polls before a manifesto has even been mentioned or any campaigning has begun really is useless. There is still a lot of time to go before an election and with Corbyn's strong showing the last 2 days in the HoC I will take any poll with a pinch of salt for the moment. You can see the tabloids are scared in that they are attacking Corbyn instead of Johnson for losing everything possible in his first 2 days in charge (all votes and majority).

gmisk · 05-09-2019 02:51PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories would win narrow majority in latest poll,but Labour still very much in contention:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1169589557748228096

Northern ireland just a blank void.....what a surprise

prawnsambo · 05-09-2019 02:52PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

It would be simpler to just close the ports of Belfast and Larne to imports. That would solve all the problems.

Of course you could inspect all imports into those ports but that would be the backstop. That would not be too big an imposition, would it?.

I would suspect that this would form part (or all) of the Irish Government's strategy for no deal. Hence why they're saying feck all about it. Would be a dynamite admission now, not so much after October 31st.

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 02:52PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

Mostly prison related as that would be my area of interest but many times they have overruled the government on prisoners rights. Voting for one, certain legal aid conditions for two and the nonsense around article 8 of the echr (which would be upheld in ecthr) resulting in a violent rapist being placed in a female prison.

I'm intrigued by this. Is their case law that I can look at?

Echr = European convention on human rights.
Ecthr = European court of human rights.

My sentence does not imply there would be case law. I note you avoided mentioning the ones that do.

An Ciarraioch · 05-09-2019 02:55PM

gmisk wrote: »

No mention of northern ireland?

Most UK polls only cover GB. Lucid Talk had Alliance in contention in three DUP constituencies last weekend:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/09/02/the-alliance-party-surge-could-spell-trouble-for-the-dup-at-westminster/

Kermit.de.frog · 05-09-2019 02:57PM

Quite incredible that Johnson has not had a single meeting with Varadkar since he became PM given that the border is the single biggest issue in Brexit atm.

As Merkel told Theresa May at her last EU council - "we are not the ones with the border with the Rep Ireland"...in other words, that's great but you should be talking to the Irish.

Hopefully the welcome is as warm as the snub.

Duane Dibbley · 05-09-2019 02:57PM

IS there any suggestion on what Labours Manifesto would actually be going into an Election

Dytalus · 05-09-2019 03:00PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

Mostly prison related as that would be my area of interest but many times they have overruled the government on prisoners rights. Voting for one, certain legal aid conditions for two and the nonsense around article 8 of the echr (which would be upheld in ecthr) resulting in a violent rapist being placed in a female prison.

....what.

Art 8, ECHR wrote:

Article 8 – Right to respect for private and family life

1. Everyone has the right to respect for his private and family life, his home and his correspondence.

2. There shall be no interference by a public authority with the exercise of this right except such as is in accordance with the law and is necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security, public safety or the economic well-being of the country, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, or for the protection of the rights and freedoms of others.

Why on earth would this result in a rapist being put into a woman's prison? What does their privacy or right to family life have to do with what prison they get placed in?

The ECHR also has nothing to do with the EU. Neither does the ECtHR.

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 03:02PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

Mostly prison related as that would be my area of interest but many times they have overruled the government on prisoners rights. Voting for one, certain legal aid conditions for two and the nonsense around article 8 of the echr (which would be upheld in ecthr) resulting in a violent rapist being placed in a female prison.

I hoped you would be able to point to specific laws from the EU though, as some of what you mention here seems to be ECHR, which is not related to the EU. In any case there is a firm commitment that the UK will keep to the ECHR via Northern Ireland as it is in the GFA that they will incorporate the ECHR into Northern Irish laws.

It also allows that the European Court of Human Rights would be able to overrule Assembly legislation if there is inconsistency. We know how much the UK wants to ensure that all parts of the UK is treated the same so I am sure taking the whole of the UK out of the ECHR but keeping NI in it would be totally unacceptable.

As for the case of Karen White who I believe you refer to, maybe you can point me to where the ECHR was involved in the mistakes that happened there.

Enzokk wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

Mostly prison related as that would be my area of interest but many times they have overruled the government on prisoners rights. Voting for one, certain legal aid conditions for two and the nonsense around article 8 of the echr (which would be upheld in ecthr) resulting in a violent rapist being placed in a female prison.

As for the case of Karen White who I believe you refer to, maybe you can point me to where the ECHR was involved in the mistakes that happened there.

The lst two paragraphs of your own link clearly state what you are seeking.

Zubeneschamali · 05-09-2019 03:04PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

IS there any suggestion on what Labours Manifesto would actually be going into an Election

I imagine it will be similar to their 2017 manifesto when key policies were:

Scrap student tuition fees
Nationalisation of England's nine water companies.
Re-introduce the 50p rate of tax on the highest earners (above £123,000)
Income tax rate 45p on £80,000 and above
More free childcare, expanding free provisions for two, three and four year olds
Guarantee triple lock for pensioner incomes
End to zero hours contracts
Hire 10,000 new police officers, 3,000 new firefighters
Moves to charge companies a levy on salaries above £330,000
Deliver rail electrification "including in Wales and the South West".

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 03:05PM

Apologies for that last balls of a quote. Phone posting is a disaster.

Theanswers · 05-09-2019 03:06PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Completely unworkable if we want to retain access to the SM which we 100% do

I wonder if the figures RE Ireland's trade with the Single Market stack up.

I believe the real economy (SME) (Bread & Butter) in rural Ireland require UK Trade more than EU trade.

Interesting Times...

Regardless, the border cannot be sealed if the EU wants it to be.

prawnsambo · 05-09-2019 03:07PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

Echr = European convention on human rights.
Ecthr = European court of human rights.

My sentence does not imply there would be case law. I note you avoided mentioning the ones that do.

I know what they ECTHR and ECHR are. I didn't question the other ones because I was able to find them. So what you're saying is that you have made a judgment based on the ECHR without any actual legal test?

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 03:10PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

IS there any suggestion on what Labours Manifesto would actually be going into an Election

I imagine it will be similar to their 2017 manifesto when key policies were:

Scrap student tuition fees
Nationalisation of England's nine water companies.
Re-introduce the 50p rate of tax on the highest earners (above £123,000)
Income tax rate 45p on £80,000 and above
More free childcare, expanding free provisions for two, three and four year olds
Guarantee triple lock for pensioner incomes
End to zero hours contracts
Hire 10,000 new police officers, 3,000 new firefighters
Moves to charge companies a levy on salaries above £330,000
Deliver rail electrification "including in Wales and the South West".

Nobody here in the UK cares about policies. This will be a one issue referendum. That must be obvious from the last results of various polls. Lib dem surge is a remain vote, brexit party is leave. Since then polarisation is much stronger given the debacle we face. The only difference is that Boris moved the Tories onto the brexit parties ground.

serfboard · 05-09-2019 03:10PM

Enzokk wrote: »

You can see the tabloids are scared in that they are attacking Corbyn instead of Johnson

You seriously expect "newspapers" owned by billionaires to attack Johnson?

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 03:13PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

Echr = European convention on human rights.
Ecthr = European court of human rights.

My sentence does not imply there would be case law. I note you avoided mentioning the ones that do.

I know what they ECTHR and ECHR are. I didn't question the other ones because I was able to find them. So what you're saying is that you have made a judgment based on the ECHR without any actual legal test?

I didn't but I'm sure the people involved carried out an assessment on their chance of contesting this and decided it was a losing battle. UK government against a marginalised group currently making lots of noise rarely goes well for them.

First Up · 05-09-2019 03:15PM

Theanswers wrote:

I believe the real economy (SME) (Bread & Butter) in rural Ireland require UK Trade more than EU trade.

It has been quantified and yes, SMEs are more exposed to UK trade. The EU knows that too.

It is regrettable but considered manageable and doesn't change our fundamental position. EU membership and the SM have served us well and remain a central part of our economic and industrial strategy.

ArmaniJeanss · 05-09-2019 03:16PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

Nobody here in the UK cares about policies. This will be a one issue referendum. That must be obvious from the last results of various polls. Lib dem surge is a remain vote, brexit party is leave. Since then polarisation is much stronger given the debacle we face. The only difference is that Boris moved the Tories onto the brexit parties ground.

Other issues will arise even if it looks like a single-issue campaign now.
Last time it was the likes of Grenfell, the Manchester suicide bomber, the Dementia tax, Corbynmania v the IRA sympathiser questions etc.
I don't know what it'll be this time obviously.
Some of the debates (chancellor v shadow, home sec v shadow) will be deliberately framed by the broadcasters as non-Brexit.

Any issue like this has the potential to move the votes a key 1% or 2% even in a 'nobody cares about politics' scenario.

ElectronVolt · 05-09-2019 03:18PM

I've been watching this thread for a while and decided to register and post. I was just wondering does anyone else notice that they're trying to 'poison search' using memes? It's quite clever when you look at it, and something that's not unusual in guerrilla marketing / PR.

Take the search word 'lie', 'lies', 'lying' and so on and any other keywords like Westminster, or any of the key front benchers.
If you search those now, you get various memes of Jacob Rees-Mogg lying down and endless social media comments, reposts and so on that have basically pushed down that particular keyword combination way down the list and will push any stories about lying etc down the list too in various social media platforms - e.g. if you've a story from let's say the Guardian mentioning the word 'lies' it's very likely to be swamped by JRM draped over the bench and thousands of social media users will retweet, edit, make jokes and propagate that image all over the web.

If you also look at the rather bizarre story about Boris Johnson making busses out of wine crates and painting them. It seems ludicrous but when you think about it it's made the NHS 350 million a week big red Brexit bus disappear out of search.

There's nothing tin-foil-hat or conspiracy theory related about this. It's just someone's running an extremely savvy campaign. There's some exceedingly clever PR and social media management running behind the scenes.

Watch this over the next few weeks. I would be far from confident that a general election will bring about a restoration of normality and the end of no-deal-Brexit. I think you're going to see probably one of the most sophisticated political social media and traditional media campaigns we've ever witnessed and, unfortunately, the general public and even most of the media are not social-media savvy enough to see when they're being fed this stuff. We're generally just not equipped with the skillset to see past it because the medium is so new.

Much like with Trump, you're watching power grab by social media.

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 03:20PM

Dytalus wrote: »

The ECHR also has nothing to do with the EU. Neither does the ECtHR.

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2018/jun/18/brussels-seeks-to-tie-uk-to-european-human-rights-court-after-brexit

They don't but God forbid we would want to leave them. It is a sticking point for some in Theresa Mays deal.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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