Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Tell me how · 05-09-2019 12:32PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Well, you can rule out a pact with the Tories &#55357;&#56834;

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Not with Swinson at the helm

She was very proactive in voting for Tory policies

awec wrote: »

No chance whatsoever the Lib Dems will join up with the tories.

Almost ended their party the last time, and the tories are even more toxic now than they were then.

The Conservative Party and the Brexit Party are going to be indistinguishable at the next General Election.

The big question will be if Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens, Change, etc can put forward a coherent message which will counter the Tory/Brexit rhetoric about how bad things will be under Corbyn.

Tory MP's yesterday said that a GE now would be a defacto 2nd referendum, they won't fight it as such, it'll be non-stop mudslinging at Corbyn and anyone standing near him.

Unfortunately, I don't have huge faith in the Labour group to fight this adequately. They could really have done with not getting rid of Alistair Campbell and bringing him in on this but that isn't going to happen.

This could open a right Pandora's Box if a large number of Brexit Party members get seats.

Enzokk · 05-09-2019 12:33PM

weemcd wrote: »

Gove is getting slaughtered on parliamentary tv as we speak. I tuned in briefly, he is being laughed at universally by the chairs, the audience and even laughing at himself. This from the guardian:

In the Brexit committee Michael Gove has just finished answering a series of questions about how Dover would cope with lorry arrivals in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Hilary Benn, the committee chair, did not sound hugely reassured, and he concluded by asking Gove to admit that no one actually knows what will happen in the event of no deal. Gove did not contest this, but replied:

The future is known only to the Almighty.

Benn said unfortunately the Almighty would not be appearing as a witness.

Absolute GOLD

Here is a link to the proceedings,

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/2e9c4033-92b3-4edb-b5dd-09f0990e832c

Edit to add: Did Gove just say that the PM is looking for a deal but then said he is not in those departments that are busy with a deal, so how does he know they are looking for a deal if he is not involved in getting a deal?

gmisk · 05-09-2019 12:34PM

Tell me how wrote: »

The Conservative Party and the Brexit Party are going to be indistinguishable at the next General Election.

The big question will be if Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens, Change, etc can put forward a coherent message which will counter the Tory/Brexit rhetoric about how bad things will be under Corbyn.

Tory MP's yesterday said that a GE now would be a defacto 2nd referendum, they won't fight it as such, it'll be non-stop mudslinging at Corbyn and anyone standing near him.

Unfortunately, I don't have huge faith in the Labour group to fight this adequately. They could really have done with not getting rid of Alistair Campbell and bringing him in on this but that isn't going to happen.

This could open a right Pandora's Box if a large number of Brexit Party members get seats.

Its already been mentioned here a lot but that is really unlikely seemingly as in UK they use FPTP.

Leroy42 · 05-09-2019 12:40PM

weemcd wrote: »

Gove is getting slaughtered on parliamentary tv as we speak.

Its the blazé way they treat it all that gets me. All a big joke.
Q - "What happens if they reach capacity"
A - "Well then there is no more room, hehe"

They have no answers. Imagine a minister turning up at a committee and accepting that he hasn't the foggiest idea what is about to happen, only the almighty does (he was unclear whether he meant Johnson or Cummings with that remark).

Clearly they are willing to take a shot, hope for the best and assume that somehow, somewhere, something will surely sort it all out.

A 2 hour delay? Who pays for this time? Will the taxpayer be expected to cover the additional cost, will prices rise?

Tell me how · 05-09-2019 12:43PM

gmisk wrote: »

Its already been mentioned here a lot but that is really unlikely seemingly as in UK they use FPTP.

Understood, but Farage isn't of a mind to see the party fade in to obscurity after a single GE attempt.

Their announcement that they intend to run 600 candidates in a GE is fairly telling. They have said that they won't run against Tory candidates likely to win, but, their determination of whether or not Tory candidates are likely to win though could be a very interesting reveal.

IF they win just 3.5% of the seats they (may) contest, that could make them the 4th biggest party within the HoC. Assuming other parties don't change which is by no means guaranteed of course.

MadYaker · 05-09-2019 12:50PM

There’ll probably be an election before the end of the year but it’s highly unlikely there’ll be one before oct 31st

Quin_Dub · 05-09-2019 12:54PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Understood, but Farage isn't of a mind to see the party fade in to obscurity after a single GE attempt.

Their announcement that they intend to run 600 candidates in a GE is fairly telling. They have said that they won't run against Tory candidates likely to win, but, their determination of whether or not Tory candidates are likely to win though could be a very interesting reveal.

IF they win just 3.5% of the seats they (may) contest, that could make them the 4th biggest party within the HoC. Assuming other parties don't change which is by no means guaranteed of course.

They won't win any seats - They are polling around the same level as UKIP were ~5 years ago and they got 1 seat then.

Their best chance of a seat is Farage and he's an outside bet at best, virtually every other BP candidate is a complete and total unknown.

Having said that , it will be interesting to see what the polling shows over the next few days given all that is going on.

If the BP get a major lift in support then maybe they might actually win some seats , but based on all the data available so far , they haven't a chance.

They will influence the election results , but not by winning seats.

ath262 · 05-09-2019 12:55PM

the election motion is to be raised again Monday (BBC Blog)

added : Jacob Rees-Mogg also confirmed Parliament would not be suspended - or prorogued - until the bill to block a no-deal Brexit has been passed into law.

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 12:56PM

Headshot wrote: »

I've read Luciana Berger is gone to the Lib Dems now

man they could be the king maker for the next Government.

She's just ensuring funding for her next run. There's an election coming and change UK is done.

An mp changing party should trigger a by election imo. Especially now we have fixed terms.

Tell me how · 05-09-2019 01:01PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

They won't win any seats - They are polling around the same level as UKIP were ~5 years ago and they got 1 seat then.

Their best chance of a seat is Farage and he's an outside bet at best, virtually every other BP candidate is a complete and total unknown.

Having said that , it will be interesting to see what the polling shows over the next few days given all that is going on.

If the BP get a major lift in support then maybe they might actually win some seats , but based on all the data available so far , they haven't a chance.

They will influence the election results , but not by winning seats.

Things are so different from 5 years ago, it is hardly worth mentioning.

I do agree in terms of UKIP being all bluster and falling short but I don't think it's unfair to say that if there was a 2nd referendum tomorrow, at least 45% of the country would still vote for it and I'm not sure if they are happy with how parliament has operated over the last 3 years and so at least some would look for alternatives to Tories.

Akrasia · 05-09-2019 01:04PM

Sinn Fein's Michelle O'Neill has said they are open to an election pact with other Pro Remain parties to shut out the DUP in the next election.

They aren't going to change their abstentionist policy but if this works it could seriously harm the DUP which is, frankly, good news for absolutely everyone

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-open-to-westminster-electoral-pact-with-other-proremain-parties-to-challenge-the-dup-says-oneill-38468538.html

robinph · 05-09-2019 01:10PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

She's just ensuring funding for her next run. There's an election coming and change UK is done.

An mp changing party should trigger a by election imo. Especially now we have fixed terms.

You vote for a person, not a party, and fixed terms or not has nothing to do with it.

As he UK will soon have had three elections within 5 years since the 5 year fixed term was brought in I don't see how that even made any difference either, other than clearly laying out the rules for calling an election which is obviously a good thing.

prawnsambo · 05-09-2019 01:11PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Things are so different from 5 years ago, it is hardly worth mentioning.

I do agree in terms of UKIP being all bluster and falling short but I don't think it's unfair to say that if there was a 2nd referendum tomorrow, at least 45% of the country would still vote for it and I'm not sure if they are happy with how parliament has operated over the last 3 years and so at least some would look for alternatives to Tories.

It's not so much about the brexit issue as the (seemingly) widespread opinion that UKIP/BP aren't a 'serious' Westminster party. People vote on a wide variety of issues and brexit (even now) is only one of them. BP don't have a manifesto on other issues that would engage voters and would never be seen as being capable of forming a government. Even if there was some sort of election pact with the Tories (unlikely), people would still vote for the Tories because they know it would have the same effect as voting for the BP and they get all the other things the Tories stand for. But as al things FPTP, it will come down to individual constituencies.

Quin_Dub · 05-09-2019 01:12PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Things are so different from 5 years ago, it is hardly worth mentioning.

I do agree in terms of UKIP being all bluster and falling short but I don't think it's unfair to say that if there was a 2nd referendum tomorrow, at least 45% of the country would still vote for it and I'm not sure if they are happy with how parliament has operated over the last 3 years and so at least some would look for alternatives to Tories.

I don't disagree at all , but all the modelling for actual seat projections show the Brexit party at Zero.

There isn't a single constituency where they are even legitimately in the hunt for a seat right now.

Obviously things can change and as I say I'd like to see some new data showing where people are at in the aftermath of the last few days. Also , if the Tories did agree some kind of Electoral pact (which would be suicide for them!) then that has major implications in terms of seat potential.

But , if the don't do a deal and I do not expect them to , the BP are highly unlikely to take seats , but they will cost the Tories a few and possibly a few Labour seats in Leave constituencies.

The only thing the Brexit party are likely to contribute to this Election is a hung parliament.

Zubeneschamali · 05-09-2019 01:14PM

Tell me how wrote: »

This could open a right Pandora's Box if a large number of Brexit Party members get seats.

If the Brexit Party gets more than zero it will be a huge victory for them. They certainly won't get more than a couple of seats.

J Mysterio · 05-09-2019 01:15PM

Cummings Wikipedia entry is interesting. Would almost lead one to conclude he is a Russian agent.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings

He is described as a Russophile who speaks Russian and loves Dostoevsky, Bismarck and Math. After colllege he went to Russia from 94-97 and got in trouble with the KGB for setting up some airline and whatever else.

Cameron apparently described him as a 'career pyscopath'.

From 1999 to 2002, Cummings was campaign director at Business for Sterling, the campaign against the UK joining the Euro

Founded New Frontiers Foundation think-tank as its director; Described as a "key figure" in the successful campaign against a North-East Regional Assembly in 2004.

Worked for Gove from 2007 to 2014, first in opposition and after 2010, as special adviser in Department of Education. Gove's chief of staff, an appointment blocked by a Andy Coulson until his own resignation.

Cummings became campaign director of Vote Leave upon the creation of the organisation in October 2015.

His wife is the deputy editor of the Spectator.

...

What about this mans connections to Banks, Cambridge Analytica, Russian money? He is surely guilty of a heap at this point. No investigations. This man is behaving like the KGB himself- summarily firing people and demanding their phones, declaring purges. What is going on? He is a wrecking ball destroying the UK.

Infini · 05-09-2019 01:16PM

Brexit party is essentially a troll party in all fairness they dont have any serious policies and little hope of actually getting seats. The real problem they create is they leech seats off other canididates. That being said they're primarily a threat to the conservatives more than labour as they'd likely siphon off the votes to them.

Conservatives mightve returned a majority but I wonder how long that would remain a case expecially after last weeks shenanigans. May also thought she would win and that backfired spetacularly.

Tell me how · 05-09-2019 01:18PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If the Brexit Party gets more than zero it will be a huge victory for them. They certainly won't get more than a couple of seats.

So, do you think that the Tories are going to attract enough voters after everything that is gone on to allow them to form a functioning government?

Or, are do we think it will be a Labour lead coalition after the GE?

jasonb · 05-09-2019 01:20PM

So, have things quietened down a bit now? Am I right in thinking that it will be Monday before the bill becomes law, and then Boris will try for another election vote and we'll see if Labour will support it or not?

is_that_so · 05-09-2019 01:22PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Cummings Wikipedia entry is interesting. Would almost lead one to conclude he is a Russian agent.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings

He is described as a Russophile who speaks Russian and loves Dostoevsky, Bismarck and Math. After colllege he went to Russia from 94-97 and got in trouble with the KGB for setting up some airline and whatever else.

Cameron apparently described him as a 'career pyscopath'.

From 1999 to 2002, Cummings was campaign director at Business for Sterling, the campaign against the UK joining the Euro

Founded New Frontiers Foundation think-tank as its director; Described as a "key figure" in the successful campaign against a North-East Regional Assembly in 2004.

Worked for Gove from 2007 to 2014, first in opposition and after 2010, as special adviser in Department of Education. Gove's chief of staff, an appointment blocked by a Andy Coulson until his own resignation.

Cummings became campaign director of Vote Leave upon the creation of the organisation in October 2015.

His wife is the deputy editor of the Spectator.

...

What about this mans connections to Banks, Cambridge Analytica, Russian money? He is surely guilty of a heap at this point. No investigations. This man is behaving like the KGB himself- summarily firing people and demanding their phones, declaring purges. What is going on? He is a wrecking ball destroying the UK.

Maybe that is his problem. He runs campaigns reasonably well and can shift gullible or unsure individuals down pre-determined paths. It's a very different story when he tries it on with career politicians or even indirectly with the likes of EU negotiators who would barely blink in the face of his strategy.

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 01:25PM

robinph wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

She's just ensuring funding for her next run. There's an election coming and change UK is done.

An mp changing party should trigger a by election imo. Especially now we have fixed terms.

You vote for a person, not a party, and fixed terms or not has nothing to do with it.

As he UK will soon have had three elections within 5 years since the 5 year fixed term was brought in I don't see how that even made any difference either, other than clearly laying out the rules for calling an election which is obviously a good thing.

How it is supposed to work and how it actually works are two different things. Nobody votes for the person. They vote for a party. That's why we get people imported to safe seats. Often bumbling idiots.

Zubeneschamali · 05-09-2019 01:26PM

Tell me how wrote: »

So, do you think that the Tories are going to attract enough voters after everything that is gone on to allow them to form a functioning government?

Or, are do we think it will be a Labour lead coalition after the GE?

Best guess is another hung Parliament, but a Labour/SNP/LibDem/Green coalition would probably not be stable for 5 years. SNP's whole mission is to win an Indyref and then leave, so the coalition would be self destructing - the Tories will have no Scottish MPs after the next election and lose nothing in Scottish Independence.

Long term, the Tories will rule supreme over England and Engxit (or whatever they'll call it) looks inevitable.

Quin_Dub · 05-09-2019 01:27PM

Tell me how wrote: »

So, do you think that the Tories are going to attract enough voters after everything that is gone on to allow them to form a functioning government?

Or, are do we think it will be a Labour lead coalition after the GE?

Right now , all I see is a hung parliament to be honest.

J Mysterio · 05-09-2019 01:28PM

jasonb wrote: »

So, have things quietened down a bit now?

Not really no, haha.

Look at this reporting on CNN:

The 'mother of Parliaments' is falling apart on live TV

On Tuesday, 1.5 million people tuned into BBC Parliament to see an alliance of rebel lawmakers deal the UK government a humiliating blow, seizing control of the Brexit agenda and forcing embattled Prime Minister Boris Johnson to call for a snap general election.

It was the biggest single-day audience for the channel...

..."Both sides are using constitutional practices and parliamentary conventions in new ways that some feel is an abuse and that has led to great mistrust and disrespect," Haddon said.

Leader of the House Jacob Rees-Mogg seemed to be the physical embodiment of that contempt on Tuesday night as he reclined on the front bench of the chamber, eyes closed and nearly horizontal while the debate raged around him

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 01:29PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Tell me how wrote: »

This could open a right Pandora's Box if a large number of Brexit Party members get seats.

If the Brexit Party gets more than zero it will be a huge victory for them. They certainly won't get more than a couple of seats.

Brexit party are done. Boris has taken a hard stance on brexit and has taken back all the disgruntled Tory votes.

Imreoir2 · 05-09-2019 01:31PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

She's just ensuring funding for her next run. There's an election coming and change UK is done.

An mp changing party should trigger a by election imo. Especially now we have fixed terms.

I think that would give far too much power to the party leadership. Any MP not toing the line can be threathened with not only losing the whip, but also their seat and being forced to contest an election against their own party. MPs seats are not the property of the party that can be taken away if and when the leader chooses.

jasonb · 05-09-2019 01:31PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Not really no, haha.

Look at this reporting on CNN.

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/09/05/europe/uk-parliament-disintegrating-gbr-intl/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F

The 'mother of Parliaments' is falling apart on live TV

Yep, but I think I read somewhere that the next step for the Bill is it coming back to the HoC on Monday, is that right? So in theory nothing else happens with that until then?

Tell me how · 05-09-2019 01:33PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

How it is supposed to work and how it actually works are two different things. Nobody votes for the person. They vote for a party. That's why we get people imported to safe seats. Often bumbling idiots.

Famously Jacobs Rees Mogg first ran for parliament in the Labour stronghold of Fife. It was obviously an effort to blood him on the campaign trail but the suggestion that someone as posh as him could represent a largely working class constituency was ludicrous.

Farage attempted to win a seat in Westminster 7 times, across 6 different constituencies.

listermint · 05-09-2019 01:33PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

How it is supposed to work and how it actually works are two different things. Nobody votes for the person. They vote for a party. That's why we get people imported to safe seats. Often bumbling idiots.

Sweeping statement which doesn't cover all jurisdictions. I think you'll agree

Water John · 05-09-2019 01:34PM

Forty Seven you need to read up Edmund Burke. An MP is basically elected by the people whom they entrust to exercise, good judgement. An elected MP doesn't even have to reflect the views of the majority of his constituents on any given issue. Just need to bring their best judgement to the subject.
No a voter doesn't elect a party, in UK or Ireland. You do have list systems in some other countries.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Comments