Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

is_that_so wrote: »

Labour want one once they get the bill sorted so I think it will happen and they'll support his motion. The HoC would wrap up on Monday anyway through prorogation. The date for an election has been heavily leaked already - Oct 15th

There still needs to be somewhere above 72 Conservative MPs voting in favour of a GE to get it over the line.

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

So the extension until January Bill gets passed. Johnson requests an extension from the EU after failing to agree a new deal. Labour and Conservatives agree to an election. Johnson comes back with a clear majority.

And the cycle begins again with Johnson threatening No Deal in January.

If it works out that way he'll feel a lot stronger and IMO even less likely to even look at alternatives. It is all about where the seats go and a huge gamble.

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

So the extension until January Bill gets passed. Johnson requests an extension from the EU after failing to agree a new deal. Labour and Conservatives agree to an election. Johnson comes back with a clear majority.

And the cycle begins again with Johnson threatening No Deal in January.

No, once he requests the extension, Brexit Party support rises, and Labour become the largest party.

If they go for election, conservatives will win and on we go again, just get it done on the 31st and leave deal or no deal. My god what an absolute cluster****, I don’t subscribe to either conservatives or labour but for me the most frustrating character in this debacle is Corbyn, his dithering etc my god if they had a leader with strength and a clear stance the conservatives would be in opposition by now.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Labour would need to win at least 270 seats to be able to form a government without the Lib Dems and even that will come at the price of a second indy ref. Still dont see Johnson ever requesting that extension though.

I'd see a national unity government or coalition, excluding the Torys as an option post-election.

Labour has already said today that they will be abstaining from the vote for the GE. Phillip Hammond also said in the debate that there is an expectation that when the bill passes to stop no-deal that Boris will do everything to stop it from actually happening and they expect it to go to litigation. The fear is that if no-deal goes through and then a GE happens that the next government has the power to bring a bill to reverse the no-deal bill and this is what they are afraid of.

So until the extension is granted it appears that Labour will not vote for a GE.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No, once he requests the extension, Brexit Party support rises, and Labour become the largest party.

This - rise in support for brexit party (without a pact) causes serious damage for tories. FPTP means Labour would likely benefit.
With a pact hurts Labour - maybe helps them for 1 election but then they’ve created a base for brexit party who will squeeze their voter base from the right going forward- eliminating the long term advantage they have compared to Labour (who face similar issue from lib dems to the left)

So huge problems either way.

Heard Andrew Bridgen on one of the channels this morning, sky i think, stating that they should just go out "on a Gatt 24 exit". I've lost count of the number of times he personally has been corrected on that blatant falsehood but still he flagrantly trots it out at every available opportunity. Just shameless some of these people.

Cummings should be frog marched out of Downing Street. This coming from senior Tory elders!

https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1169237425568342018

Saw this interesting stat on new voters. I wonder what effect it might have in an (inevitable) election?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/more-than-100000-people-apply-register-vote-youth-uk-general-election

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Cummings should be frog marched out of Downing Street. This coming from senior Tory elders!

https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1169237425568342018

If there is any upside to all of this shenanigans it’s the spectacle of the Tory party tearing itself apart. Long may that continue.

Possibilities in an election:

1) Large Conservative majority

Boris loses the ability to blame parliament for no deal so actually engages with the EU properly. Without dependency on DUP they can put the border down the Irish sea, with that change and with a majority large enough that he's not beholden to the ERG (who will vote down anything), the deal should be ratified.

2) Labour government

With SNP, Alliance, Plaid or Green support as needed. Maybe Lib Dem support if they swallow their pride and do the right thing. Withdrawal agreement is agreed with additional political declarations for a close relationship akin to EFTA. Return to responsible governance. Possible second referendum, possible remain.

3) Slim Conservative majority

A lot depends on whether DUP hold balance of power. Likely the same mess come January, but no recourse to another election again so Boris would need to try to take negotiations more seriously rather than trying to play political games. Would likely engage with EU more, but no deal would still be likely.


At least 2 out of those 3 cases are favourable for the EU, so it's worth giving them the time to see how it plays out.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There is posts on here claiming the labour government would win elections and some claiming national unity governments without the tories...It is like being in a parallel universe with people who don't have the first idea on what is going on and just spout a wishlist.


Please try and follow it.

Haven't you been predicting the imminence of the EU folding and giving the British everything they want for the entire duration of these threads?

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

So the extension until January Bill gets passed. Johnson requests an extension from the EU after failing to agree a new deal. Labour and Conservatives agree to an election. Johnson comes back with a clear majority.

And the cycle begins again with Johnson threatening No Deal in January.

It would depend what is in the manifestos and if he wins on no-deal and so be it. Then they leave without a deal on 40% of the popular vote.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There is posts on here claiming the labour government would win elections and some claiming national unity governments without the tories...It is like being in a parallel universe with people who don't have the first idea on what is going on and just spout a wishlist.


Please try and follow it.

Let's see if you remember, what was the opinion polls like before May had her inspiration to go for an election? Are you happy and 100% certain that history will not repeat itself? How is the Tories on the economy these days? How about the record on health and NHS funding?