Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali · 03-09-2019 07:33AM

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

HI'm increasing encountering a minority opinion that people believe we will be hit harder than the UK by Brexit and that we should change our position in order to avoid a no deal Brexit.

Yes, I would be interested to learn who is funding the spread of that opinion.

Zubeneschamali · 03-09-2019 07:40AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I understand them not trusting him but I can’t see him allowing no deal crash out to happen.

Check the Peter Foster reporting linked just upthread.

He reports that Johnson has not even started trying to renegotiate with the EU, instead he has been running down the clock to No Deal.

The Attorney General told him to his face that the EU dropping the backstop is a total fantasy.

His only plan is to convince the EU he is going for No Deal and then negotiate mini-deals to take some of the pain out of it, which the EU have also said they are not going to do.

Everything he has said to Parliament and the British Public about renegotiating and getting a deal has been a lie.

murphaph · 03-09-2019 07:42AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, I would be interested to learn who is funding the spread of that opinion.

I wonder is there any social media advertising aimed at Irish residents taking place along those lines. Maybe it's not worth the effort as the polls show strong support for the government's Brexit stance and those targeted facebook campaigns work when you have a pretty even split and just need to target the swing voters.

Stop moaning ffs · 03-09-2019 07:44AM

stoneill wrote: »

In these exceptional and fraught times SF could have abandoned their abstentionism policy for the greater good of the island of Ireland. It was small minded to adhere to a policy that was appropriate in the last century, if Britain leave with a no-deal, then SF will have to shoulder some of the blame when they could have stopped it.

Think you’ll find it’s the DUP own all the blame for what is to come in NI post brexit.

As has been explained several times; if SF turned up in parliament to take their seats no party no MP not a single one would or could vote along side them. No matter what. It would be an utterly pointless exercise. They could form a pact as O Toole suggested a while back and surrender their seats to SDLP or alliance but even that would cause furore as it would spun as SFIRA interfering in British democracy.

VinLieger · 03-09-2019 07:48AM

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

Has there been any opinion polls ran recently in Ireland regarding people's thoughts on Brexit?

I'm increasing encountering a minority opinion that people believe we will be hit harder than the UK by Brexit and that we should change our position in order to avoid a no deal Brexit.

I myself think that we should stay firm and that Coveney, even though I'm not a fan of his party for being too left leaning and not representing people that actually work in this country, has played a blinder so far.

Weve been getting hut hard by UL right wing propaganda since Johnson and Cummins tool over, im not surprised such attitudes are increasing but i dont believe it will ever be popular enough for the government to change the current stance

Going Strong · 03-09-2019 07:48AM

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder is there any social media advertising aimed at Irish residents taking place along those lines. Maybe it's not worth the effort as the polls show strong support for the government's Brexit stance and those targeted facebook campaigns work when you have a pretty even split and just need to target the swing voters.

I've seen Brexity talkboards seizing on the comments by the usual bots, cranks and weirdos that post on the likes of Journal.ie as proof that there is a huge groundswell of support for Irexit. Or, if not that extreme, that a lot of Irish people are anti the Irish government's stance.

FrancieBrady · 03-09-2019 08:02AM

Labour voting against an election after today would be really interesting.
What would Johnson do then, having been instructed to ask for an extension? What are his options?

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 08:18AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Labour voting against an election after today would be really interesting.
What would Johnson do then, having been instructed to ask for an extension? What are his options?

That's not necessarily the case. This from Sam Coates:

My joke last year that this would end up like flight 401 iin the Everglades is starting to look more realistic now. They're so busy looking at each other to see what they're up to, they're going to forget that the ground is coming up to meet them.

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 08:29AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

So decisive he wrote a letter for and against brexit at referendum and waited to see which way wind blew.

And voted for and against the Withdrawal Agreement. Very decisive.

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 08:30AM

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

Has there been any opinion polls ran recently in Ireland regarding people's thoughts on Brexit?

I'm increasing encountering a minority opinion that people believe we will be hit harder than the UK by Brexit and that we should change our position in order to avoid a no deal Brexit.

I myself think that we should stay firm and that Coveney, even though I'm not a fan of his party for being too left leaning and not representing people that actually work in this country, has played a blinder so far.

If these minority views are being influenced by the torrent of "information" coming out of Number 10 then PM Johnson-Cummings is doing a very good job. It takes a while to sift through it and see what crap it is between the blame game, utter hubris and completely empty plans.

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 08:39AM

The Central Bank has processed 'well over' 100 authorisations for UK based financial institutions to set up or extend their operations in Ireland. Still a small amount outstanding; some of which won't be completed by b-day 3. Brexit dividend incoming.

prawnsambo · 03-09-2019 08:45AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

That's not necessarily the case. This from Sam Coates:

My joke last year that this would end up like flight 401 iin the Everglades is starting to look more realistic now. They're so busy looking at each other to see what they're up to, they're going to forget that the ground is coming up to meet them.

And just to explain why this is: The word on the street is that Johnson is expected to put a motion for a GE on (or around) 14th October and then when (if) it's voted through, use prerogative powers to move it beyond 31st October. Hence Corbyn saying the legislation to block no-deal must be locked down before he'd support a motion for dissolution and a GE.

Is the nose-wheel locked?

intellectual dosser · 03-09-2019 08:46AM

I'm baffled as to what BJ's end game is. He must surely know deep down that the EU aren't going to budge. I understand that MPs voting to block no deal weakens his hand but his hand is incredibly weak to begin with.

Election: If there was a GE and he won every single seat what difference would it make?

No Deal: Crashing his own country into economic uncertainty, with the non-EU major economies circling like vultures. For what?

I get that these are the same questions we've been asking for a long time. Just thought they'd be somewhat clearer by now.

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 08:48AM

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I'm baffled as to what BJ's end game is. He must surely know deep down that the EU aren't going to budge. I understand that MPs voting to block no deal weakens his hand but his hand is incredibly weak to begin with.

Election: If there was a GE and he won every single seat what difference would it make?

No Deal: Crashing his own country into economic uncertainty, with the non-EU major economies circling like vultures. For what?

I get that these are the same questions we've been asking for a long time. Just thought they'd be somewhat clearer by now.

Because they are Britain and Britain expects! Well, England actually - nothing more and nothing less.

Christy42 · 03-09-2019 08:49AM

I really see Conservatives getting majority in a GE.

People want this sorted. They don't want to look at the details or a potential crash. That means a decisive result which means labour or conservatives. Labour do not have a plan, conservatives do ( a bad one but that is not what will be looked at).

Many remainers will look at it and avoid conservatives but the less interested voters will go conservatives. Obviously I hope I am wrong.

CelticRambler · 03-09-2019 08:50AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

if SF turned up in parliament to take their seats no party no MP not a single one would or could vote along side them. No matter what.

Fantasy mode: how about if SF turned up today/tomorrow and publicly announced that they were going to "pledge allegiance" to the Queen on the grounds that the behaviour and proclamations of May, Johnson et al show that a promise made in Westminster is non-binding;
and having done so, indicated that they were going to vote for whatever kind of Brexit was proposed by the government in the expectation that it would cause maximum damage to the United Kingdom (a new front in their war against the Brits) and precipitate the reunification of Ireland.

Would the HoC vote to revoke Art.50 by the end of the week? :P

Stop moaning ffs · 03-09-2019 08:52AM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Fantasy mode: how about if SF turned up today/tomorrow and publicly announced that they were going to "pledge allegiance" to the Queen on the grounds that the behaviour and proclamations of May, Johnson et al show that a promise made in Westminster is non-binding;
and having done so, indicated that they were going to vote for whatever kind of Brexit was proposed by the government in the expectation that it would cause maximum damage to the United Kingdom (a new front in their war against the Brits) and precipitate the reunification of Ireland.

Would the HoC vote to revoke Art.50 by the end of the week? :P

I’d love it for the optics and high drama of it all

intellectual dosser · 03-09-2019 08:52AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Because they are Britain and Britain expects! Well, England actually - nothing more and nothing less.

England expects for sure, but at the moment nothing is expected to change by October 31st, what will England expect on October 30th?

mrbrianj · 03-09-2019 08:54AM

Going Strong wrote: »

I've seen Brexity talkboards seizing on the comments by the usual bots, cranks and weirdos that post on the likes of Journal.ie as proof that there is a huge groundswell of support for Irexit. Or, if not that extreme, that a lot of Irish people are anti the Irish government's stance.

What none of them explain is how letting the UK off the hook of the backstop in any way benefits our economy. A no deal or no backstop will trash our economy either way.

realdanbreen · 03-09-2019 08:54AM

Can anyone , in not more than 4 lines explain
A: Main reason why Britain want to leave EU
B: Advantages for doing so
C: Disadvantages for doing so.

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 08:55AM

intellectual dosser wrote: »

England expects for sure, but at the moment nothing is expected to change by October 31st, what will England expect on October 30th?

Ah no spoilers please!

DOCARCH · 03-09-2019 08:56AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Labour voting against an election after today would be really interesting.
What would Johnson do then, having been instructed to ask for an extension? What are his options?

He will be in trouble (with his own party)! His whole leadership campaign was based on UK leaving on October 31st no matter what.

His only real option is to try and get passing of no no deal brexit delayed as much as possible in the House of Lords by means of endless amendments and/or filibustering.

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 08:59AM

Christy42 wrote: »

I really see Conservatives getting majority in a GE.

People want this sorted. They don't want to look at the details or a potential crash. That means a decisive result which means labour or conservatives. Labour do not have a plan, conservatives do ( a bad one but that is not what will be looked at).

Many remainers will look at it and avoid conservatives but the less interested voters will go conservatives. Obviously I hope I am wrong.

In normal times yes they probably would. Someone from Delta, who run polls was on after the major speech. Strange times he said and it's way too unpredictable to call. Will there be pacts? How will true blue voters respond to the party cosying up to Farage and co? Will Labour put up a real fight?

VinLieger · 03-09-2019 08:59AM

Christy42 wrote: »

I really see Conservatives getting majority in a GE.

People want this sorted. They don't want to look at the details or a potential crash. That means a decisive result which means labour or conservatives. Labour do not have a plan, conservatives do ( a bad one but that is not what will be looked at).

Many remainers will look at it and avoid conservatives but the less interested voters will go conservatives. Obviously I hope I am wrong.

If Brexit isnt delivered the Brexit Party will split the Conservative vote which should be the real concern for the Conservatives because if Labour and Lib Dems can get their act together theres going to be a lot of potentially vulnerable seats up for grabs

LuckyLloyd · 03-09-2019 09:00AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Labour voting against an election after today would be really interesting.
What would Johnson do then, having been instructed to ask for an extension? What are his options?

Resign
He’d be completely powerless and irrelevant

darem93 · 03-09-2019 09:01AM

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1168792492038217728

If this is the case Boris is definitely looking at an outright majority. The main hope to get the Tories out of government was them and the Brexit Party splitting the vote. Now Boris will receive all the no deal votes, while the Remain votes will be split between Lib Debs, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and I guess Labour too.

Going Strong · 03-09-2019 09:01AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

The Central Bank has processed 'well over' 100 authorisations for UK based financial institutions to set up or extend their operations in Ireland. Still a small amount outstanding; some of which won't be completed by b-day 3. Brexit dividend incoming.

I work in financial services. Our company closed their London office last year as they couldn't take the risk of the UK becoming a third country under GDPR legislation. So that was 50-odd jobs that moved to Dublin where they have now set up shop advising other UK-based financial companies on how to make a similar move.

03-09-2019 09:09AM

It still blows my mind that No Deal is actually being sought after by some people..

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 09:11AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It still blows my mind that No Deal is actually being sought after by some people..

It's seen as a victory, a very hollow one IMO. Better they leave on their own terms than bow to the EU.

farmchoice · 03-09-2019 09:12AM

darem93 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1168792492038217728

If this is the case Boris is definitely looking at an outright majority. The main hope to get the Tories out of government was them and the Brexit Party splitting the vote. Now Boris will receive all the no deal votes, while the Remain votes will be split between Lib Debs, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and I guess Labour too.

thats a trap for boris, he would have to campaign on ''no deal'' not a better deal.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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