Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Water John · 02-09-2019 05:02PM

Well they used that slur the last time and look where it got May.

seamus · 02-09-2019 05:06PM

farmchoice wrote: »

corbyn is mad for an election, but he would be mad to fall into this trap alright, but then a lot of people not least in his own party say he's a bit mad.

May called an election because she thought she'd walk it. All the polls at the time said she would too.

Then Labour came out and (figuratively) trounced them. So Corbyn might be confident he can do the same again and gather another 10 or 20 seats.

trellheim · 02-09-2019 05:07PM

Right cabinet and drinks about to start in No.10 , phones being taken off attending MPs

swampgas · 02-09-2019 05:07PM

Water John wrote: »

Well they used that slur the last time and look where it got May.

That's a fair point, although:

This time round Jeremy Corbyn may have been damaged by endless prevarication. Many remainers might vote elsewhere.
Last time, Theresa May was a truly dreadful campaigner. Johnson has far more charisma.

It will be interesting to see what happens next.

Zubeneschamali · 02-09-2019 05:09PM

is_that_so wrote: »

It's more the level of the risk he could be taking, I'm thinking of. I think almost everyone else will band together in a new parliament, except the DUP of course.

The question is not if they team up in Parliament after the election, the question is whether they agree not to run against one another ahead of the election.

If there is one Tory vs. one Remain candidate in every constituency, FPTP would give Remain a much better chance than if Remain votes are split between 4 opposition parties.

is_that_so · 02-09-2019 05:12PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The question is not if they team up in Parliament after the election, the question is whether they agree not to run against one another ahead of the election.

If there is one Tory vs. one Remain candidate in every constituency, FPTP would give Remain a much better chance than if Remain votes are split between 4 opposition parties.

I don't think you'll get polls with that level of granularity at this point. It seems to be a straightforward voting intentions poll. And I agree with you. It is something those who want to oust Boris need to think about.

is_that_so · 02-09-2019 05:14PM

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1168546340428812288

sabat · 02-09-2019 05:14PM

It's not unthinkable that Johnson himself could get booted out in a GE. I was just looking at the figures from 2017 there and he has a majority of only 5,000. If the Brexit Party run a candidate cannibalising the CP vote and there's a higher turnout voting Labour to take a shot at him personally and the Tories in general we could well be watching one of those famous late night declarations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Zubeneschamali · 02-09-2019 05:15PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I don't think you'll get polls with that level of granularity at this point. It seems to be a straightforward voting intentions poll. And I agree with you. It is something those who want to oust Boris need to think about.

Seems to bear out the idea that no-one will vote for Farage in a real election.

is_that_so · 02-09-2019 05:17PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Seems to bear out the idea that no-one will vote for Farage in a real election.

Well he has a poor track record on that really. Remember he was very much in favour of proportional representation as it would have given them seats.

fash · 02-09-2019 05:21PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Firstly I don't think you understand what a Hard Brexit is and how it applies to Ireland.

Secondly I don't think you have accepted the UK voted to leave the EU, fully and entirely.

.

I don't give a s**t about what the UK wants- they have existing obligations under the GFA and as a consequence of their carving up of Ireland. Strictly speaking it is questionable whether any form of brexit is possible given the UK's GFA obligations (unless and until NI is handed over)- and even if possible, said brexit may need to be a soft SM/CU brexit only.

Water John · 02-09-2019 05:21PM

I presume, no french wine available. Only british beers and lagers, courtesy of Tim Martin. Scotch whisky won't even make the grade.

Flex · 02-09-2019 05:22PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

As if this whole brexit carry on wasn't already a farce, it seems that the draft policy on Northern Ireland that the British cabinet are nearing approval of is the same one as before but with the backstop references crossed out. Yes minister wasn't even this bad.

I presume that passing this (if it passes) is their way of showing the EU they can have a deal if only they would just throw Ireland under the bus (already done previously with the Brady amendment)

trellheim · 02-09-2019 05:24PM

No. It is to be technically correct when mentioning that they have a text ready to go, its to convince waverers and not tell a lie.

( that said, there MAY be a real text and the leakers have it wrong - but on balance thats almost never the case )

fash · 02-09-2019 05:24PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Staying in a Customs Union including more than likely free movement of people was always going to be a tough sell by any PM who would struggle to get it through the HoC.

Abiding by rules you have no say or input into was going to be difficult to accept. Its not really leaving the EU. Its like staying in the EU but not having any power in the EU, a worse fate than actually staying in the EU for those who wanted to take back power. It would render the HoC a rubber stamping parliament for EU rules and I can't see the majority accepting that in the HoC. Like I said a tough sell.

You understand that FOM has nothing to do with a CU? Turkey is in a CU but has no FOM. Do we really need to go through the basics in this?

prawnsambo · 02-09-2019 05:28PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Seems to bear out the idea that no-one will vote for Farage in a real election.

And at the same time (almost) justifies Johnson's brexity stance. I know wishful-thinking hard brexiters (is there any other kind?) would like to see a Johnson/Farage alliance leading them to the sunlit uplands, but when it comes to marking an X on the ballot paper, the old habits will come to the fore.

The problem (from Johnson's pov) is that the SNP will take Scotland, probably in its entirety. So that's a lot of seats lost and then he's scratching around looking to win some Labour marginals, which of course puts paid to any putative election alliance with BP Ltd. And the danger for Labour is that with the Tories nibbling at his arse in leave constituencies and the LibDems et al nibbling at the other cheek in remain ones, he's going to get squeezed. This is the problem with sitting on the fence, you don't hold any ground.

Flex · 02-09-2019 05:28PM

trellheim wrote: »

No. It is to be technically correct when mentioning that they have a text ready to go, its to convince waverers and not tell a lie.

( that said, there MAY be a real text and the leakers have it wrong - but on balance thats almost never the case )

You mean preparing this to maintain pretense of aiming for a deal albeit being prepared for/willing to go through with no deal to keep moderate Conservative MPs onboard?

ToBeFrank123 · 02-09-2019 05:29PM

fash wrote: »

You understand that FOM has nothing to do with a CU? Turkey is in a CU but has no FOM. Do we really need to go through the basics in this?

I said I think it would mean FOM. I didn't say I knew for sure.

It would definitely mean accepting EU rules and regulations in a whole host of matters with ZERO input into those rules and regulations.

In any point, its moot. A majority in the HoC voted against a customs union.

Next...

GM228 · 02-09-2019 05:31PM

Hilary Benn's new Bill:-

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168560598650621953?s=19

Stop moaning ffs · 02-09-2019 05:33PM

There will be a prime ministerial statement at 6

GM228 · 02-09-2019 05:33PM

Johnson live statement at 6pm from No.10.

Care to speculate?

sondagefaux · 02-09-2019 05:33PM

The route Foods of Animal Origin (and fish/seafood) will need to take if they're exported from Northern Ireland to the republic, even if the customer is a few kilometers down the road from the Northern Ireland producer.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/sep/02/a-typical-hour-in-the-life-of-the-irish-border

Of course, this assumes that the EU lists the UK as a non-EU country from which it is possible to import Foods of Animal Origin (and fish/seafood) in the first place.

If the UK isn't listed, no Foods of Animal Origin (and fish/seafood) can be imported into the EU from the UK, including Northern Ireland.

Foods of Animal Origin include all meat, including poultry & game, eggs and dairy products (milk, cheese, cream, butter etc).

All such foods entering the EU from outside must pass through a Border Inspection Post. The only Border Inspection Posts in the republic at present are at Dublin Port and Shannon Airport.

https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/vet-border-control_en

https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/vet-border-control/bip_en

MrMusician18 · 02-09-2019 05:33PM

Televised statement from Johnson at 6

Stop moaning ffs · 02-09-2019 05:34PM

GM228 wrote: »

Johnson live statement at 6pm from No.10.

Care to speculate?

Election.

Or wild guess revoke article 50 and start over

prawnsambo · 02-09-2019 05:36PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I said I think it would mean FOM. I didn't say I knew for sure.

It would definitely mean accepting EU rules and regulations in a whole host of matters with ZERO input into those rules and regulations.

In any point, its moot. A majority in the HoC voted against a customs union.

Next...

I think it actually drops a large host of regulations. It's the single market that means regulations. The CU is a single external tariff regime which means no trade deals effectively (some are allowed, but only with EU consent). However anything sold into the SM must meet SM rules.

Iirc, it was a very small majority that voted against the CU.

fash · 02-09-2019 05:37PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Nope, they understood fully the backstop was indefinite unless there was a legally guaranteed timeline to end it.

Which is the reason an indefinite backstop would never clear the HoC. The facts back this up. Too much opposition from across the parties such as Labour, DUP, SNP, as well as ERG. It never had a hope.

It became an exercise in flogging a dead horse in the end and is still being flogged by many, well past its death!

Yet whenever given the opportunity to vote to unilaterally remove the backstop itself, the HOC voted 600 to 24 - over 96% in favour of the backstop - a backstop wanted by 70% of the population of NI.

Itssoeasy · 02-09-2019 05:38PM

GM228 wrote: »

Johnson live statement at 6pm from No.10.

Care to speculate?

His divorce has finally come through ?

Stop moaning ffs · 02-09-2019 05:39PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

His divorce has finally come through ?

Announcement they’ve named the dog

Zubeneschamali · 02-09-2019 05:39PM

Benn's bill above requests an extension to January 31st. I think the EU will offer only a longer extension, time for something to actually happen in Westminster, like 12 more months.

careless sherpa · 02-09-2019 05:40PM

GM228 wrote: »

Johnson live statement at 6pm from No.10.

Care to speculate?

Something to do with a kidnapped royal and a pig

or else it is an election. I didn't think he would move this quickly for an election. If it is it is the end of the line for the DUP, next stop the wilderness

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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