Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo · 29-08-2019 01:21PM

Jizique wrote: »

Who resigned?
The only one i can think of is Davidson, who resigned as Scottish Conservative leader, because she doesn't agree with the Brexit policy and because she think Johnson is a ****.
She has no vote in parliament.

I don't think you can say that about Davidson's thoughts on Johnson. She said in her PC that she spoke to him at length and that she believes him when he says he wants a deal. And tellingly, she urged parliamentarians to vote for a deal when it comes back to the HoC. Very strenuously urged them, I might add.

Tell me how · 29-08-2019 01:24PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't think you can say that about Davidson's thoughts on Johnson. She said in her PC that she spoke to him at length and that she believes him when he says he wants a deal. And tellingly, she urged parliamentarians to vote for a deal when it comes back to the HoC. Very strenuously urged them, I might add.

Doesn't matter once she is leaving. Her mords may have purely been to stem any tide of accusations that she abandoned the conservative party and made them look weak.

In fact, I'd say that is exactly why she said it.

Shelga · 29-08-2019 01:34PM

Any political public figure who doesn’t explicitly condemn the prorogation in the strongest possible terms has no spine. That now includes Davidson.

The fact that there have only been 2 resignations is worrying.

prawnsambo · 29-08-2019 01:34PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Doesn't matter once she is leaving. Her mords may have purely been to stem any tide of accusations that she abandoned the conservative party and made them look weak.

In fact, I'd say that is exactly why she said it.

Really? I wouldn't think anything she said would have any effect on the optics of the fact of her resigning. What interested me was her belief that a new WA would be put back to parliament. The Tories have been putting out the narrative of a no deal brexit and this proroguing of parliament bolsters that. Yet you seem to think that Davidson saying that she believes a deal will be put to parliament means she's trying to strengthen the Tories?

woejus · 29-08-2019 01:40PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Is it the will...

This would be good watching if set to the "what have the romans ever done for us" scene

reslfj · 29-08-2019 01:42PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They are all still keen to explore any kind of a deal and will be up to Oct 31. No deal is not a deal.

Two things will happen a little after October 31.

1. The UK will urgently (more like desperately) need a trade deal and deals on a lot of non-trade areas.

2. The EU27 will be in a new and much stronger negotiation position with the WA text and some hard extra demands being first and only on the agenda. Poor, poor UK

The the trade deal may be negotiated and long haul lorries may drive in the EU27.

Lars

Shelga · 29-08-2019 01:50PM

I’ve got a flight to Scotland booked for November 1st. Has anyone seen any updates on whether flights will be affected in the event of a no-deal Brexit the day before?

My understanding is that they agreed to roll over aviation agreements before the March deadline, but can’t find anything about it relating to the new date of October 31st.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 29-08-2019 01:54PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

Absolutely pathetic. These people need to get a job and except the will of the majority

Ireland has very close to zero unemployment. That was basically unconscionable 20+ years ago.

Calina · 29-08-2019 01:54PM

Shelga wrote: »

I’ve got a flight to Scotland booked for November 1st. Has anyone seen any updates on whether flights will be affected in the event of a no-deal Brexit the day before?

My understanding is that they agreed to roll over aviation agreements before the March deadline, but can’t find anything about it relating to the new date of October 31st.

They didn't agree anything. The EU has planning in place for a no deal scenario. Your plane flying is dependent on a bunch of conditions ibcluding route and ownership of the airline and where it is registered iirc.

prawnsambo · 29-08-2019 01:59PM

Calina wrote: »

They didn't agree anything. The EU has planning in place for a no deal scenario. Your plane flying is dependent on a bunch of conditions ibcluding route and ownership of the airline and where it is registered iirc.

The impact mitigation was to allow UK owned airlines fly from the UK to a destination in the EU or from an EU airport to the UK, but not from EU to EU. It was to last for nine months iirc.

Call me Al · 29-08-2019 02:03PM

Enzokk wrote: »

The queen is aware that she is a figurehead only and has no real power. She will accept the advice of the PM as she doesn't want to get herself involved in politics. It is shameful that Johnson did this to get her involved though, I think the royal family would have been happy to be just in the background doing their thing. Having her agree to proroguing is getting her involved in politics and it is worse in that she cannot go against the advice of the PM really.

Lord Adonis was talking with Pat Kenny this morning. He believes that bj had planned to pro rogue right up to brexit day, but that the queen wasn't ok with this, and her legal advisors pushed back against that. Rather than lose face ( all round) he pitched it out to mid October.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 29-08-2019 02:04PM

Facts are important. 5% at the moment. 20 years ago it was about 5%

12% in 2009
16% in 2012

It was higher in 2012 than during the 90's, hitting ~18% during the 80's.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

Ireland has very close to zero unemployment. That was basically unconscionable 20+ years ago.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 29-08-2019 02:05PM

Calina wrote: »

They didn't agree anything. The EU has planning in place for a no deal scenario. Your plane flying is dependent on a bunch of conditions ibcluding route and ownership of the airline and where it is registered iirc.

https://youtu.be/Inr1KEoJqJ0

Michael O Leary explains that point fairly well.

BarryD2 · 29-08-2019 02:08PM

Enzokk wrote: »

The queen is aware that she is a figurehead only and has no real power. She will accept the advice of the PM as she doesn't want to get herself involved in politics.

As I understand it, she does have certain powers not dissimilar to our own president in that she can refuse to appoint or dissolve governments and so on. She is supposed to have the greater interests of her 'people' at heart. I'd have thought that in kowtowing to Boris, that she's copped out and abrogated her responsibilities. But then maybe the monarchy are closet Brexiteers?

Clearly there's a crisis brewing in her country. The democratically elected MPs would be expected to play a role in sorting it out. And yet she chose to facilitate the shutting down of parliament - I'd think there's many a British citizen scowling in the direction of the Palace.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 29-08-2019 02:11PM

Lyra Black Sportswoman wrote: »

Facts are important. 5% at the moment. 20 years ago it was about 5%

12% in 2009
16% in 2012

It was higher in 2012 than during the 90's, hitting ~18% during the 80's.

The point still stands. 30,40,50,60,70 years ago we had higher unemployment. And it's 4.6% now. I don't think it can be lowered by much more realistically.

It went bad a decade ago. That's why it's so solid there has been such recovery of the economy.

LuckyLloyd · 29-08-2019 02:12PM

Lyra Black Sportswoman wrote: »

Facts are important. 5% at the moment. 20 years ago it was about 5%

12% in 2009
16% in 2012

It was higher in 2012 than during the 90's, hitting ~18% during the 80's.

5% is effectively full employment

Shelga · 29-08-2019 02:19PM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

https://youtu.be/Inr1KEoJqJ0

Michael O Leary explains that point fairly well.

Thanks for that clip! I think I understand that the issue is the open skies agreement, not the ownership of the airline, but I still have no idea what stage the British government is at today, in terms of negotiating an alternative.

Kirsty Wark was fairly annoying though, kept interrupting him with misinformation. Michael O’Leary obviously knows this stuff inside out. I’m not sure I’d agree with him though that just because his planes are full, people love flying Ryanair!

robinph · 29-08-2019 02:21PM

Enzokk wrote: »

They would not resign from being a MP, just their job in government. So a minister could resign but still vote, same for the party whips who is there to ensure everyone stays in line and votes with the government. If they don't agree with the government position then they have to resign the whip.

Resigning the whip is different from the Whip resigning.

The Whip resigning is the person with the role of keeping the members in line and ensuring they turn up to vote in the right way resigning from doing that job.

Resigning the whip is something else, which I don't fully get the implications of, but means that you effectively become an independent MP for a while I think because you say you won't follow the instructions from the party whips regarding voting. Not sure what "benefits" it is that they lose by doing so though. I think they also use it as a punishment for party MP's that have done something wrong, in a slap on the wrists kind of level, and the party would withdraw the whip from them.

VinLieger · 29-08-2019 02:23PM

Lyra Black Sportswoman wrote: »

Facts are important. 5% at the moment. 20 years ago it was about 5%

12% in 2009
16% in 2012

It was higher in 2012 than during the 90's, hitting ~18% during the 80's.

5% is pretty much agreed as being as low as its likely to get.

Currently the UK claim theirs is 3.8% however they class anyone who does 1 hour or more of work a week as being employed so its not comparable and quite a disingenuous figure.

robinph · 29-08-2019 02:25PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

As I understand it, she does have certain powers not dissimilar to our own president in that she can refuse to appoint or dissolve governments and so on. She is supposed to have the greater interests of her 'people' at heart. I'd have thought that in kowtowing to Boris, that she's copped out and abrogated her responsibilities. But then maybe the monarchy are closet Brexiteers?

Clearly there's a crisis brewing in her country. The democratically elected MPs would be expected to play a role in sorting it out. And yet she chose to facilitate the shutting down of parliament - I'd think there's many a British citizen scowling in the direction of the Palace.

She does have powers, but can't really use them as to do so would mean the end of the monarchy. Much like the UK can leave the EU with no deal if it wants to, but to do so would be monumentally stupid and mean the end of the UK.

Or the EU could agree to the UK's demands regarding the backstop, but to do so would mean the end of the EU.

The Queen is not as stupid as the UK government.

20silkcut · 29-08-2019 02:26PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

To their own head, and then making demands.

Unfortunately Ireland is in the splash zone.

Took a flight to London from Dublin last week. Within 5 minutes or so of been airborne the welsh coast was clearly in view from my seat in the plane. Within another 10-15 minutes we were flying over it.
It just struck me how geographically close we are to Britain. How different the view points are on either side of that sea that can be crossed in minutes by air.
How big the impact will be on us.
In relative terms we are living on top of each other. We are very definitely in the splash zone.

prawnsambo · 29-08-2019 02:26PM

VinLieger wrote: »

5% is pretty much agreed as being as low as its likely to get.

Currently the UK claim theirs is 3.8% however they class anyone who does 1 hour or more of work a week as being employed so its not comparable and quite a disingenuous figure.

I'm not sure if we also have this, but they also have an 'inactive' cohort that is defined by not having looked for work in the last four weeks. It's very large, iirc the same number as those classified as unemployed.

Stop moaning ffs · 29-08-2019 02:30PM

Whatever it’s worth from this guy. You’d wonder why he’s tweeting it

https://twitter.com/jamiebrysoncpni/status/1167059118907150337?s=21

prawnsambo · 29-08-2019 02:31PM

Following on from the discussion about Ruth Davidson and what she said, we now have what looks like spin coming from Dominic Cummings to negate what she said about a deal.

josip · 29-08-2019 02:31PM

robinph wrote: »

She does have powers, but can't really use them as to do so would mean the end of the monarchy. Much like the UK can leave the EU with no deal if it wants to, but to do so would be monumentally stupid and mean the end of the UK.

Or the EU could agree to the UK's demands regarding the backstop, but to do so would mean the end of the EU.

The Queen is not as stupid as the UK government.

One has been put in a bit of a bind and I doubt if one appreciated it one bit.
One however probably decided to 'suck it up' in the knowledge that one will outlast the current imbecile, much as one has outlasted the previous 13.

BarryD2 · 29-08-2019 02:47PM

robinph wrote: »

She does have powers, but can't really use them as to do so would mean the end of the monarchy.

Please explain? How they can they be powers if she can't use them?

Stop moaning ffs · 29-08-2019 02:47PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Following on from the discussion about Ruth Davidson and what she said, we now have what looks like spin coming from Dominic Cummings to negate what she said about a deal.

All this seems really fishy. Anonymous accounts leaking things?

https://twitter.com/emmakennedy/status/1166997012761497600?s=21

Stacksofwacks · 29-08-2019 02:56PM

20silkcut wrote: »

Took a flight to London from Dublin last week. Within 5 minutes or so of been airborne the welsh coast was clearly in view from my seat in the plane. Within another 10-15 minutes we were flying over it.
It just struck me how geographically close we are to Britain. How different the view points are on either side of that sea that can be crossed in minutes by air.
How big the impact will be on us.
In relative terms we are living on top of each other. We are very definitely in the splash zone.

More importantly we are the only EU country with a land border with the UK. People in the brexit camp dont seem to realize or care much about that and just see us being affect the same way as france or the netherlands. Everything from ambulances and fire brigades going through there every day. The jeoprady is huge. Also most of our freight goes through British ports which means we will be affected even worse

Jizique · 29-08-2019 02:58PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't think you can say that about Davidson's thoughts on Johnson. She said in her PC that she spoke to him at length and that she believes him when he says he wants a deal. And tellingly, she urged parliamentarians to vote for a deal when it comes back to the HoC. Very strenuously urged them, I might add.

It was in a Spectator article i was reading last night, it didn't pull any punches.

LeinsterDub · 29-08-2019 02:59PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Whatever it’s worth from this guy. You’d wonder why he’s tweeting it

https://twitter.com/jamiebrysoncpni/status/1167059118907150337?s=21

Their is a school of thought that BoJo is attempting to force the oppositions hand and have the call a VONC and he'll be able to go to the country with basically a "Remove the traitors" campaign .

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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