Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

I really think the EU needs to pull the rug from under all of this now and just declare that the UK has completely lost the run of themselves in what was supposed to be an extention period to help them pass the WA.
We (The EU) should just come out and say that by the end of let's say next week the extention will be withdrawn and the UK will have to leave without a deal.

It will hurt all of the EU especially us in Ireland very much but I think the UK will have no choice but come running back for some sort of deal when the reality of Brexit starts kicking in for them.

CelticRambler wrote: »

Just been listening to JRM (on Sky) poo-poohing, in the haughtiest tones, the notion that proroging parliament has anything to with Brexit. With a perfectly straight face, he says it's entirely driven by Boris Johnson's desire to enact new legislation regarding hospitals, schools, policing, etc.

As if the type of Brexit undertaken by the UK wasn't going to have any at all effect on those areas ... :rolleyes:

Yes, the kind of legislation that will restrict hospitals & schools to UK nationals only and give the police draconian arrest powers, all in the name of national security in the face of civil unrest.

JRM is a criminal. The entire ERG needs to be jailed and investigated.

firemansam4 wrote: »

I really think the EU needs to pull the rug from under all of this now and just declare that the UK has completely lost the run of themselves in what was supposed to be an extention period to help them pass the WA.
We (The EU) should just come out and say that by the end of let's say next week the extention will be withdrawn and the UK will have to leave without a deal.

It will hurt all of the EU especially us in Ireland very much but I think the UK will have no choice but come running back for some sort of deal when the reality of Brexit starts kicking in for them.

It's catch-22 tbh. The EU can be blamed for not "letting" the UK leave, but if they pull the rug, they'll be blamed for "sabotaging" Brexit. Brexit is cult now, impervious to logic. The best the EU can do is get its own house in order and be prepared. One way or another the nationalists will blame the EU for the mess that's to follow, so the EU needs to do what's best for the EU and let the UK sink under its own steam.

firemansam4 wrote: »

I really think the EU needs to pull the rug from under all of this now and just declare that the UK has completely lost the run of themselves in what was supposed to be an extention period to help them pass the WA.
We (The EU) should just come out and say that by the end of let's say next week the extention will be withdrawn and the UK will have to leave without a deal.

It will hurt all of the EU especially us in Ireland very much but I think the UK will have no choice but come running back for some sort of deal when the reality of Brexit starts kicking in for them.

The EU will sit this latest mess out, as they consider it internal. 31st October and some form of an orderly exit would be their next real involvement with Britain. Failing that it's Out, Out, Out.

CelticRambler wrote: »

The presenter on Sky said that none of them are available for comment since yesterday.

Perhaps they're reeling from the shock? :rolleyes:

JRM being asked "why such a long period - five weeks - when the normal duration is only 5-10 days?" He says it's not really five weeks, because you can't count the three weeks of the conference season ... :rolleyes:

Kate Hooey was on Newstalk this morning saying the same thing basically. What they forget to mention that while the House of Commons is stood down during conference season, the House of Lords is still going about their business. With this move now both Houses are stood down, unfortunately this as not really been picked up yet by journalists asking the questions.

Thanks for that Enzokk, didn’t realise it shuts down the House of Lords too.

No one is asking Mogg- if this is the longest running parliament in 400 years, then what difference does waiting til November make to beginning a new session?

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

I know the BS is an insurance policy so time limit negates that but a "no deal" will result in everything the backstop is designed to avoid happening anyway.

I do understand the issues but from a purely personal perspective I will be severely affected by sterling collapse so this is a real financial worry.

firemansam4 wrote: »

I really think the EU needs to pull the rug from under all of this now and just declare that the UK has completely lost the run of themselves in what was supposed to be an extention period to help them pass the WA.
We (The EU) should just come out and say that by the end of let's say next week the extention will be withdrawn and the UK will have to leave without a deal.

It will hurt all of the EU especially us in Ireland very much but I think the UK will have no choice but come running back for some sort of deal when the reality of Brexit starts kicking in for them.

There's no need for that honestly, better to wait till Oct 31, let the ticking clock squeeze the Brexiteer idiots like a slowly closing vice all the while saying that only by agreeing to the WA can they leave with a deal while making clear that if they crash out that any agreement they eventually get will be far worse for them than the one currently on the table.

The only way they truly have of stopping all this is to vote to withdraw A50 and face down the faults and ignorant stupidity rotting away in their house otherwise it's essentially Yugoslavia 2.0: Brexit Bogaloo.

joe40 wrote: »

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

I know the BS is an insurance policy so time limit negates that but a "no deal" will result in everything the backstop is designed to avoid happening anyway.

I do understand the issues but from a purely personal perspective I will be severely affected by sterling collapse so this is a real financial worry.

To be clear their behaviour in all this basically make's a backstop a red line issue for any agreement with the EU, the border is too porous, too big and too many bad historical connotations associated with it to be anywhere like a normal border, not to mention the views of the majority there are being stifled by the DUP ignoring them for their own political interests. In addition it's a fallback mechanism that is simply necessary because the Brits are basically politically and diplomatically bankrupt from all their behaviour, the only choice they has is to either limit to NI or all of the UK now. Crashing out wont get rid of it if anything it becomes the price of any new agreement which could even be less favourable because once you poison the well like that it only ends badly for the instigating party (Conservatives/UK).

As for your own financial situation all any of us can recomend is to get any saving you have outta there and deposit it in an Irish bank (in euros) at least and keep doing so until this is all over because sterling will take a massive dump in the event of a no deal and could likely see another 20%+ of it's value wiped out thanks to these incompetent deadweights. You mightn't be able to prevent yourself taking a hit from these tools but you can at least still make moves now to negate some of the damage.

joe40 wrote: »

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

I know the BS is an insurance policy so time limit negates that but a "no deal" will result in everything the backstop is designed to avoid happening anyway.

I do understand the issues but from a purely personal perspective I will be severely affected by sterling collapse so this is a real financial worry.

A free trade agreement will also result in the need for a hard border. But Brexiterta are allowed go on British media and say things to the effect that if the stupid Irish would just let us get to the trade talks, it would all be sorted out there....and they’re allowed to get away with it!

Calina wrote: »

Merkel's position has not changed. The last minute was back in March.

They are all still keen to explore any kind of a deal and will be up to Oct 31. No deal is not a deal.

Enzokk wrote: »

Is that not like asking to pick your poison? Either one will be bad, it is about the consequences. So the time limit will only prolong the uncertainty whereas a no-deal would be a shock and then we have time to recover. I think the time limit will be worse, we will still end up at the same state as no-deal most likely and the EU will have lost politically if they go back on the backstop. So that is a double whammy for us as a weakened EU is bad for Ireland.

It is to a certain extent been asked to pick our poison and we have been put in this position due to British Brexiteers which is unforgivable.
But the vote has happened so I think Brexit will happen so there will eventually be checks of some sort on the Border even with the backstop.

I don't think it will anything like the border of the past which was in relation to the security situation. I just don't think there will be a return to that level of violence. The current dissidents do not have anywhere near the same expertise or organisation that the IRA developed over the years. International terrorism has changed so there would be no external help.

I live in Donegal so am familiar with the Border, I grew up with customs checks, hiding the bottle of whiskey at Christmas time, they weren't that bad.

The border may be invisible at the moment but it is still there and still very real, will checks on goods really have such a big impact.

I know this is a minority opinion so totally accept I may be wrong but a "No Deal" exit also has massive potential for damage and upheaval.

joe40 wrote: »

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

I know the BS is an insurance policy so time limit negates that but a "no deal" will result in everything the backstop is designed to avoid happening anyway.

I do understand the issues but from a purely personal perspective I will be severely affected by sterling collapse so this is a real financial worry.

We must not assent to any hardening of the border. As such, No Deal is better for us strategically than any dilution of the backstop.

I sympathise with your personal situation but you have had years to get ready and the political situation has been deteriorating in the UK for a long time now.