Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs · 28-08-2019 02:58PM

There it is

https://twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1166711465040142336?s=21

reslfj · 28-08-2019 03:00PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The Eu can’t suspend the uk. You should read more current affairs.

Not suspend everything, but voting rights is far more than "can't", I should think.

Lars

TEU A7.3 wrote:

3. Where a determination under paragraph 2 has been made, the Council, acting by a qualified majority, may decide to suspend certain of the rights deriving from the application of the Treaties to the Member State in question, including the voting rights of the representative of the government of that Member State in the Council.
In doing so, the Council shall take into account the possible consequences of such a suspension on the rights and obligations of natural and legal persons.
...

Stop moaning ffs · 28-08-2019 03:02PM

reslfj wrote: »

Not suspend everything, but voting rights is far more than "can't", I should think.

Lars

Could the Eu use this to stop rogue brexit MEPs from interfering in votes? Isn’t the new budget coming up soon? Can they use it there?

LeinsterDub · 28-08-2019 03:02PM

briany wrote: »

I'm not sure I understand. In the event where the official parliament is suspended, wouldn't MPs convening somewhere else just be people sitting in a room with no actual power to do anything?

It ultimately would depends on who the courts , civil service and heaven forbid the army recognised as the legitimate government . These things can spin out of control at an alarming pace.

fash · 28-08-2019 03:02PM

Berserker wrote: »

The deal is not acceptable, as we all know. The EU has closed the door on renegotiating that deal, or so it appears, so no deal it is.

The EU has repeatedly stated it is open to renegotiating the deal - now what additional concessions are you willing to make?

prawnsambo · 28-08-2019 03:02PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

They hace significantly reduced the time available to debate and vote, whilst having the impression that they are not stopping parliament.

1st November would have no defence. It is all about giving just enough cover to carry on the farce and avoid being directly blamed.

If that's the reason, it's a very big gamble for a very small gain.It seems to suggest to me that its purpose is to push a 'new' withdrawal agreement through. And it seems to me that this move is specifically aimed at putting huge pressure on parliament rather than the EU.

Water John · 28-08-2019 03:03PM

Does this 'order' from the Queen, mean that Parliament cannot do otherwise?

Is it Johnson's plan to push WA through without the support of the DUP and then go for a GE?

VinLieger · 28-08-2019 03:05PM

Water John wrote: »

Does this 'order' from the Queen, mean that Parliament cannot do otherwise?

I believe that technically the opposition can setup a 2nd parliament with a majority of MP's within westminster, they have stated they may use the church thats there?

padd b1975 · 28-08-2019 03:05PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Fixed parliament act, the government cannot call an election unless they lose a VONC or have 2/3 support for a new election.

What kind of opposition is going to pass up on the chance of going into government?

Oh wait.... Corbyn.

VinLieger · 28-08-2019 03:07PM

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

The only part the UK wants to renegotiate is the backstop, and the backstop is the only part the EU does not want to renegotiate.

Border in the Irish sea would be accepted immediately

newport2 · 28-08-2019 03:07PM

I think he's just trying to provoke the circumstances for an early general election. Opposition and lots of remain Tories up in arms. No confidence.

He would be in a good position to go into an election soon, saying the will of the people is being blocked. FTTP gives him a good chance of a majority without the DUP, which opens the door to an EU deal with a border down the Irish sea. He would probably get that through parliament. So Britain gets it's Brexit deal and is free to make a deal with the US and NI remains aligned with the EU.

If he was really trying to railroad through a no deal Brexit, why only suspend until mid-October? Wait until after the 31st.

Whatever he says, Boris cares a lot about his legacy. He does not have the balls to do a no-deal Brexit without a mandate. He would be crucified afterwards and he knows it.

VinLieger · 28-08-2019 03:11PM

Sterling seems to be holding pretty steady after the drop earlier, guessing the markets are just waiting to see what the next move in this omnishambles will bring.

Larbre34 · 28-08-2019 03:11PM

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

A vote on whether that Irish Sea border is a permanent boundary between the UK and Ireland would be preferable after a no-deal...

A vote by whom.

Professor Moriarty · 28-08-2019 03:11PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Couldn't find the old poll that showed a similar number of Leavers thought that No Deal meant that things stayed the way they are.

Barely one in five thinks that the rest of the public know what will happen with No Deal. There's no way in hell anyone can claim that's a democratic mandate for No Deal.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/public-see-johnson-most-capable-pm-vs-corbyn-ipsos-mori-political-monitor-july-2019

Here's a poll from last week. The question was: "If you had to choose one outcome":

Britain having a new referendum and voting to remain in the EU after all: 35%
Britain leaving the European Union without any deal: 26%
Britain leaving the European Union with an alternative deal that included remaining in the single market and customs union: 17%
Britain accepting the negotiated deal and leaving the European Union on those terms: 7%
Don't know: 15%

If the Don't Knows are removed, 69% want to remain or leave with a deal.

briany · 28-08-2019 03:12PM

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

A vote on whether that Irish Sea border is a permanent boundary between the UK and Ireland would be preferable after a no-deal...

Sounds like Sinn Fein is the party for you.

CelticRambler · 28-08-2019 03:12PM

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

The only part the UK wants to renegotiate is the backstop

There are plenty of MPs on record saying that they want to re-negotiate more than the backstop. David Davies, for example, has a "shopping list" ...

Larbre34 · 28-08-2019 03:14PM

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

The people of Ireland.

I was referring to a border poll.

Never in this maelstrom. Might happen after the dust has settled but i see no path to it before say 2025. Be lucky to get Stormont back before then, never mind something so paradigm changing.

prawnsambo · 28-08-2019 03:16PM

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

I would say that if Bojo calls a snap election there is a considerable chance there will be a nationalist majority of NI MPS - the SDLP need to get their act together if they are serious about this though.

He can't actually call an election. The Fixed Term Parliament Act prevents this. So it looks like he's trying to pressure the opposition and Tory rebels into calling a VONC.

bobmalooka · 28-08-2019 03:17PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So two parliaments in effect? What happens then?

Eventually civil war if they don’t check the path they’re going down

fash · 28-08-2019 03:18PM

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

The only part the UK wants to renegotiate is the backstop, and the backstop is the only part the EU does not want to renegotiate.

The EU is still patiently waiting for the UK's suggested alternative. Remember the "30 days" for example?

Professor Moriarty · 28-08-2019 03:18PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

There are plenty of MPs on record saying that they want to re-negotiate more than the backstop. David Davies, for example, has a "shopping list" ...

60 Tory MPs according to The Telegraph.

CelticRambler · 28-08-2019 03:20PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

"If you had to choose one outcome":

Britain having a new referendum and voting to remain in the EU after all: 35%
Britain leaving the European Union without any deal: 26%
Britain leaving the European Union with an alternative deal that included remaining in the single market and customs union: 17%
Britain accepting the negotiated deal and leaving the European Union on those terms: 7%
Don't know: 15%

That bit in red is why we're on the road to No Deal. Getting the country into a position where either a new referendum or an alternative deal could be proposed would mean seeking yet another extension. On the UK's side, that would hand all of the Tory's votes in Leave constituencies to the Brexit Party; on the EU's side, it would require an immense act of faith and trust in the Tory government to behave like mature statesmen for the good of the country.

Neither is likely.

Professor Moriarty · 28-08-2019 03:25PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

That bit in red is why we're on the road to No Deal. Getting the country into a position where either a new referendum or an alternative deal could be proposed would mean seeking yet another extension. On the UK's side, that would hand all of the Tory's votes in Leave constituencies to the Brexit Party; on the EU's side, it would require an immense act of faith and trust in the Tory government to behave like mature statesmen for the good of the country.

Neither is likely.

It's impossible to say what's going to happen at this stage. Three months ago, nobody could have predicted that Britain would be where it is this afternoon. So trying to predict where it will be in three months' time would be equally impossible.

WomanSkirtFan8 · 28-08-2019 03:25PM

Larbre34 wrote: »

Never in this maelstrom. Might happen after the dust has settled but i see no path to it before say 2025. Be lucky to get Stormont back before then, never mind something so paradigm changing.

A border poll even though it may very well not happen in the current circumstances for the reasons outlined above but it will deffinately happen somewhere down the road if this farce keeps going the way it is right. The timing of it will be absolutely crucial and the ultimate results of it will be extremely interesting

brickster69 · 28-08-2019 03:28PM

Bloody hell. Remainers are imploding left right and centre over here.

Now the SNP are seeking an urgent hearing in the Scottish courts tomorrow to stop the proroguing of Parliament - an order that has just been approved by the Queen.

Stop moaning ffs · 28-08-2019 03:28PM

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

A border poll even though it may very well not happen in the current circumstances for the reasons outlined above but it will deffinately happen somewhere down the road if this farce keeps going the way it is right. The timing of it will be absolutely crucial and the ultimate results of it will be extremely interesting

I’m thinking how much of it would be the SoS for NI being instructed from above to say it’s time to have the poll just out of revenge for Ireland being so uncooperative during the brexit crisis.
Leave us deal with the basket case. Our government can’t refuse to hold the ref either as far as I recall

Professor Moriarty · 28-08-2019 03:29PM

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

I think the fear of a hard border and renewed violent republican campaign will prompt people to give in and vote for unity.

Equally, fear of renewed Loyalist violence and a renewed British military presence in NI might prompt people to give in and accept a hard border.

Laois_Man · 28-08-2019 03:31PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's impossible to say what's going to happen at this stage. Three months ago, nobody could have predicted that Britain would be where it is this afternoon. So trying to predict where it will be in three months' time would be equally impossible.

Not to be pedantic, but proroguing parliament has been suggested for a long time (for example, when Bercow refused to allow the WA to go to another vote, a new parliamentary session was widely suggested as a way around that).

But it especially became a real possibility once Teresa May announced her resignation (more than 3 months ago) and Johnson was immediately installed as the assumed next PM

prawnsambo · 28-08-2019 03:32PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Bloody hell. Remainers are imploding left right and centre over here.

Now the SNP are seeking an urgent hearing in the Scottish courts tomorrow to stop the proroguing of Parliament - an order that has just been approved by the Queen.

Well maybe this will get the required result and get them off their asses and actually decide something. Never seen a country arguing with itself for so long and failing to actually come to a decision.

bobmalooka · 28-08-2019 03:37PM

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

A border poll even though it may very well not happen in the current circumstances for the reasons outlined above but it will deffinately happen somewhere down the road if this farce keeps going the way it is right. The timing of it will be absolutely crucial and the ultimate results of it will be extremely interesting

Not necessarily, they’re abdicating responsibility and reneging on agreements already.
My understanding is that under the GFA a border poll would be called by the secretary for state for NI - and the triggering event was left quite vague. Requiring a degree of acting in good faith - I think it’s fair to say UK politics have given up on such concepts.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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