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Property Market 2019

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    #2702
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,725 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    rireland wrote: »
    Just crash already! No hope of buying without a crash.

    And before people say I wouldn't be able buy in a crash...possibly. But at least prices would be at a lower base and more affordable in future.

    The people who benefit from a crash are the ones with cash and disposable income. If you can't afford to buy now, you'll have the same experience during and after a crash... you'll just be left wondering how everything managed to pass you by again...

    Concentrate on putting yourself in a position where you can buy, and stop focusing on what everyone else is doing to make your life difficult.


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    #2703
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    The people who benefit from a crash are the ones with cash and disposable income. If you can't afford to buy now, you'll have the same experience during and after a crash... you'll just be left wondering how everything managed to pass you by again...

    Concentrate on putting yourself in a position where you can buy, and stop focusing on what everyone else is doing to make your life difficult.




    I reckon the current trend is a blip with regards to Brexit with prices coming down. people are holding the powder dry as brexit will take at least 2 years to resolve. The thing is people have a lot of options with regards to their property. Rents are flying up. Personally I am trying to sell I have a set price I have had some low ball offers but if I don't get the money I am looking for I will simply rent until the market rises to what I want (could take 2 years could take 10 years but property historically rise in the end regardless of the up and down cycle) . I wonder how many others are in the same boat. I don't need to sell to buy. I reckon if I was buying I would hold off for 6 months see what happens with brexit and then go on what happens there. Anyone thinking brexit wont impact our property prices are deluded everything in this country will be impacted by brexit, property, jobs, the over all economy.


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    #2704
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,032 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    rireland wrote: »
    Just crash already! No hope of buying without a crash.

    And before people say I wouldn't be able buy in a crash...possibly. But at least prices would be at a lower base and more affordable in future.

    Yes let's all hope for an economic disaster because it might or even might not suit you.


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    #2705
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    fliball123 wrote: »
    I reckon if I was buying I would hold off for 6 months see what happens with brexit and then go on what happens there.


    Brexit might take a lot longer than 6 months to resolve, it could take 6 years or more.


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    #2706
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    cameramonkey wrote: »
    Brexit might take a lot longer than 6 months to resolve, it could take 6 years or more.


    that is true but in 6 months at least you will know if its a hard or soft brexit or an extension.. It could take a decade to resolve


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    #2707
    mariaalice
    Registered Users Posts: 12,399 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    fliball123 wrote: »
    I reckon the current trend is a blip with regards to Brexit with prices coming down. people are holding the powder dry as brexit will take at least 2 years to resolve. The thing is people have a lot of options with regards to their property. Rents are flying up. Personally I am trying to sell I have a set price I have had some low ball offers but if I don't get the money I am looking for I will simply rent until the market rises to what I want (could take 2 years could take 10 years but property historically rise in the end regardless of the up and down cycle) . I wonder how many others are in the same boat. I don't need to sell to buy. I reckon if I was buying I would hold off for 6 months see what happens with brexit and then go on what happens there. Anyone thinking brexit wont impact our property prices are deluded everything in this country will be impacted by brexit, property, jobs, the over all economy.

    You are prepared to rent for 2 to 10 years with all the cost and uncertainty associated with that becaue you are not prepared to sell at the price the maket dictates?


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    #2708
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    mariaalice wrote: »
    You are prepared to rent for 2 to 10 years with all the cost and uncertainty associated with that becaue you are not prepared to sell at the price the maket dictates?




    yeah I am I will clear the mortgage and have a little left over. I will put it up as unfurnished so it will be the walls and floors that will be wear and tear but sure you can replace them if selling and why should I sell when I am not getting the price i want when i can make a small profit after tax and mortgage and let the market go where it goes in 10 years time i will most likely get a lot more than I am looking for while some one else pays my mortgage


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    #2709
    JDD
    Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭JDD


    I think he's less referring to someone staining your couch to the risk of someone deciding not to pay their rent and overholding for six months or more.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again. Q3 2020 - Q2 2021 is when the economy will slump. It won't crash like 2008 as that was a once in a lifetime crash, akin to 1929, but about 15% will come off property prices. Save your cash, and wait to buy until then. I would have done that myself only we had to buy last year when we did. If you're okay renting for another couple of years I'd wait.


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    #2710
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,725 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    JDD wrote: »
    I think he's less referring to someone staining your couch to the risk of someone deciding not to pay their rent and overholding for six months or more.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again. Q3 2020 - Q2 2021 is when the economy will slump. It won't crash like 2008 as that was a once in a lifetime crash, akin to 1929, but about 15% will come off property prices. Save your cash, and wait to buy until then. I would have done that myself only we had to buy last year when we did. If you're okay renting for another couple of years I'd wait.

    Wow, thats a very specific prediction... But i'll only last exactly 1 year... I'd better be ready. Thanks for the information. I'm going to put my life on hold based on your observations.


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    #2711
    fret_wimp2
    Registered Users Posts: 1,905 ✭✭✭fret_wimp2


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    Wow, thats a very specific prediction... But i'll only last exactly 1 year... I'd better be ready. Thanks for the information. I'm going to put my life on hold based on your observations.

    Relax! He put his opinion out there, its up to you what you do with it. If you want to put your life on hold waiting for what someone thinks may or may not happen, have at it, but its your decision and your consequences one way or the other.


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    #2712
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,725 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    fret_wimp2 wrote: »
    Relax! He put his opinion out there, its up to you what you do with it. If you want to put your life on hold waiting for what someone thinks may or may not happen, have at it, but its your decision and your consequences one way or the other.

    I think you missed my sarcasm...


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    #2713
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,639 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    JDD wrote: »
    I think he's less referring to someone staining your couch to the risk of someone deciding not to pay their rent and overholding for six months or more.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again. Q3 2020 - Q2 2021 is when the economy will slump. It won't crash like 2008 as that was a once in a lifetime crash, akin to 1929, but about 15% will come off property prices. Save your cash, and wait to buy until then. I would have done that myself only we had to buy last year when we did. If you're okay renting for another couple of years I'd wait.
    How much of the 15% is spent renting for the few years?


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    #2714
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,725 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    ELM327 wrote: »
    How much of the 15% is spent renting for the few years?

    Your logic and considered approach aren't welcome here!!! We need a crash! So that prices will come down and all the people who can't afford to buy now will be set back another 10 years!!!


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    #2715
    Evd-Burner
    Registered Users Posts: 1,456 ✭✭✭Evd-Burner


    L1011 wrote:
    I'm getting quite uneasy about the discussion of an identifiable specific property at this stage. The OP has been given quite a lot of solid advice so far so that should be enough

    ELM327 wrote:
    How much of the 15% is spent renting for the few years?


    hahahahaha. Exactly what I was thinking. The rental cost for the house im buying is about 2k per month. If I was to wait 2 years to buy that would be 48k.

    The house I'm buying is 340k so if things dropped by 15% it would be 51k less. So theoretically a saving of 3k and running the risk of not being able to obtain credit in 2 years!


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    #2716
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,032 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    Evd-Burner wrote: »
    hahahahaha. Exactly what I was thinking. The rental cost for the house im buying is about 2k per month. If I was to wait 2 years to buy that would be 48k.

    The house I'm buying is 340k so if things dropped by 15% it would be 51k less. So theoretically a saving of 3k and running the risk of not being able to obtain credit in 2 years!

    You'd be building up equity in the house though if you buy now and are paying the mortgage.

    Plus you have your house.


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    #2717
    Colonel Claptrap
    Registered Users Posts: 945 ✭✭✭Colonel Claptrap


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    You'd be building up equity in the house though if you buy now and are paying the mortgage.

    Plus you have your house.

    Like a dollar, a house now is worth more than a house in the future :P


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    #2718
    Evd-Burner
    Registered Users Posts: 1,456 ✭✭✭Evd-Burner


    Interested Observer wrote:
    You'd be building up equity in the house though if you buy now and are paying the mortgage.

    Probably about the same amount of that saving and my cost of mortgage plus tax and upkeep etc would still be less than the 48k.
    Colonel Claptrap wrote:
    Like a dollar, a house now is worth more than a house in the future

    Hence I'm still going ahead with the sale :)


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    #2719
    aloooof
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,354 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    Evd-Burner wrote: »
    hahahahaha. Exactly what I was thinking. The rental cost for the house im buying is about 2k per month. If I was to wait 2 years to buy that would be 48k.

    The house I'm buying is 340k so if things dropped by 15% it would be 51k less. So theoretically a saving of 3k and running the risk of not being able to obtain credit in 2 years!

    If you want a more accurate figure, you should be using the rental cost you are currently paying vs what you would be paying for the mortgage. It will inform how much you save / lose in the interim 2 years.

    Also, loan amortization in the 2 year period should be considered. Very loosely: 340k, assuming 10% deposit of 34k, mortgage would be 306k. Taking a 30 year mortgage @3%, by July 2021, your principal will be around ~292k.

    A 15% drop = 289k. Minus 10% deposit = 260k mortgage in July 2021. Plus the 5k you've saved on the deposit.

    So, rather than your suggested saving of 3k, a (theoretical) 15% drop could see you in a more beneficial scenario (depending on your rent situation). But ultimately it is important to do your sums and weigh that up against things like certainty of ownership vs uncertainty of waiting for a crash, and suitability / size of property etc. etc.


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    #2720
    aloooof
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,354 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    You'd be building up equity in the house though if you buy now and are paying the mortgage.

    Plus you have your house.

    Not necessarily, if we're assuming a drop in house prices. EDIT (my bad): The 15% suggested drop would have them around parity, owing 292k with the house worth 289k.


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    #2721
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,639 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    aloooof wrote: »
    If you want a more accurate figure, you should be using the rental cost you are currently paying vs what you would be paying for the mortgage. It will inform how much you save / lose in the interim 2 years.

    Also, loan amortization in the 2 year period should be considered. Very loosely: 340k, assuming 10% deposit of 34k, mortgage would be 306k. Taking a 30 year mortgage @3%, by July 2021, your principal will be around ~292k.

    A 15% drop = 289k. Minus 10% deposit = 260k mortgage in July 2021. Plus the 5k you've saved on the deposit.

    So, rather than your suggested saving of 3k, a (theoretical) 15% drop could see you in a more beneficial scenario (depending on your rent situation). But ultimately it is important to do your sums and weigh that up against things like certainty of ownership vs uncertainty of waiting for a crash, and suitability / size of property etc. etc.
    in interest only (exclude payment of capital)


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    #2722
    aloooof
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,354 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    ELM327 wrote: »
    in interest only (exclude payment of capital)

    Why interest only? The capital part would be accounted for in my suggestion for including loan amortization in the calculation as well, no? (Interested, in case I'm overlooking something).


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    #2723
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,639 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    aloooof wrote: »
    Why interest only? The capital part would be accounted for in my suggestion for including loan amortization in the calculation as well, no? (Interested, in case I'm overlooking something).


    If you're doing it that way (which is possible but less clear IMO) you need to include rent figures for 2 years in the 15% drop scenario.
    For clarity:


    Rent for 2 years: 260k mortgage + (2 years * 18k/yr rent)
    Buy now : 306k mortgage + (2 years of interest payments, or €x)


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    #2724
    airportgirl83
    Registered Users Posts: 149 ✭✭airportgirl83


    aloooof wrote: »
    Interested Observer wrote: »
    You'd be building up equity in the house though if you buy now and are paying the mortgage.

    Plus you have your house.

    Not necessarily, if we're assuming a drop in house prices. EDIT (my bad): The 15% suggested drop would have them around parity, owing 292k with the house worth 289k.
    Could you include drop in rental income in your calculations as well? If house prices drop, rents might follow. You don't want to end up contributing to your mortgage to cover the cost of it.


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    #2725
    Evd-Burner
    Registered Users Posts: 1,456 ✭✭✭Evd-Burner


    aloooof wrote:
    If you want a more accurate figure, you should be using the rental cost you are currently paying vs what you would be paying for the mortgage. It will inform how much you save / lose in the interim 2 years.


    I cant, I'm 30 this week and i was told a few years ago when I moved back into my parents that I have to save and move out by 30. As we are close to closing I am allowed to stay until we close and move.


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    #2726
    aloooof
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,354 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    airportgirl83 wrote: »
    Could you include drop in rental income in your calculations as well? If house prices drop, rents might follow. You don't want to end up contributing to your mortgage to cover the cost of it.

    You could, but I'd wager it's another variable that we're guessing, meaning the result becomes increasingly unreliable.

    Ultimately, it always comes back to fundamentals; if you can afford it and it suits your needs in the medium-to-long term, it's always a good time to buy.

    (As an aside, I was actually surprised in my workings above that, even with a 15% drop over 2 years, OP would still be around parity. I'd have guessed they'd be in negative equity.)


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    #2727
    rireland
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 90 ✭✭rireland


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    The people who benefit from a crash are the ones with cash and disposable income. If you can't afford to buy now, you'll have the same experience during and after a crash... you'll just be left wondering how everything managed to pass you by again...

    Concentrate on putting yourself in a position where you can buy, and stop focusing on what everyone else is doing to make your life difficult.

    This does not make sense.

    I have cash saved up. I do not have enough cash for a 200k mortgage due to my salary.

    My cash sum is worth much much more when prices drop.

    And concentrate on putting myself in a position to buy? Stupid CB rules mean I have to get a salary increase of 50%....that's only if house prices stay at current levels too.

    CB rules are protecting banks but they're throwing people under a bus forcing them to pay massive rents.


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    #2728
    rireland
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 90 ✭✭rireland


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    Yes let's all hope for an economic disaster because it might or even might not suit you.

    You're deluded if you think people don't care about themselves first and foremost.


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    #2729
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,032 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    rireland wrote: »
    You're deluded if you think people don't care about themselves first and foremost.

    Of course they do. But the people who are deluded are those in this thread who seem to think a crash will come along, leave them entirely untouched, and let them buy a nice cheap house.


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    #2730
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    rireland wrote: »
    ....
    CB rules are protecting banks but they're throwing people under a bus forcing them to pay massive rents....

    Those rules are preventing you from buying something you can't afford. They are also stopping banks from unsustainable loans.

    How can you not realise this.... when banks lifted those rules last time the market went super Nova.

    High rents are a different issue. That's lack of supply and increased demand.


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    #2731
    rireland
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 90 ✭✭rireland


    ELM327 wrote: »
    How much of the 15% is spent renting for the few years?

    Why do people always reply with this?

    Even if the full 15% (which is high) was spent on rent, it's still massively beneficial to get a mortgage at prices 15% lower.

    Example: House now worth 300k v house worth 15% less (255k). 30k deposit for both.

    Total payment over 30 year mortgage:

    300k house = €409,680
    255k house = €346,860

    So that's an increase of about 18%. That 63k difference is nothing to be sniffed at.

    Quite a modest difference considering interest rates will have to go up sometime and spending 45k on rent would cover a number of years.


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