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WereWolf: A 13 player Seer game

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Comments

  • #1202
    Baggly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    There is colour, yeah.

    484320.JPG


  • #1203
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    So, Ecto voted Clara and GnR.

    So these are either players that she peeked as bad (can't be both, as N0's was a villager she got info on), or at least rules them out as who she peeked as village-cleared.


  • #1204
    Baggly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Clara, i didnt post at all after 6pm last night. I wasnt around / online at all until after 10.


  • #1205
    Baggly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    quickbeam wrote: »
    So, Ecto voted Clara and GnR.

    So these are either players that she peeked as bad (can't be both, as N0's was a villager she got info on), or at least rules them out as who she peeked as village-cleared.

    I think if she peeks a wolf, she pushes harder to get them killed. I dont think she peeked clara or GNR, although that doesnt rule out she was suss of them. I would say its possible she voted Clara d1, peeked her d2. That is what i would do with a rand peek and then chosen peek. That she didnt revote for her tells me that maybe clara is ok.


  • #1206
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Ectoplasm wrote: »
    Ok...so I'm pointing out who I believe to be a wolf. Gut feeling is fine. I voted that way last night but the way that the voting went and the fact that that a villager died has me looking at the info I have available. I like gut feeling but I prefer information and I'm working with what I have.

    You seem determined to dismiss my feelings about GnR. Why?

    Found it!! GnR's a wolf! Fuuuuuuuuuck!!!


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  • #1207
    Clarabel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Clarabel


    Baggly wrote: »
    Clara, i didnt post at all after 6pm last night. I wasnt around / online at all until after 10.

    I know, I can't believe ballsport is more important than werewolf!


  • #1208
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Ectoplasm wrote: »
    Yeah I'm not seeing QB as wolfy myself. I admit I semi-cleared her yesterday based on Strawbs as seer but even so, I'm not getting wolf vibes today.

    And, maybe wishful thinking, but was I her N0?


  • #1209
    Baggly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Clarabel wrote: »
    I know, I can't believe ballsport is more important than werewolf!

    This game was organised after i had already committed to ref! Im reffing again tonight as well. Im around all day though.

    But my point was your table has me posting after 6pm yesterday, which isn't the case.


  • #1210
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Vote cast for GnR.


  • #1211
    Baggly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    quickbeam wrote: »
    And, maybe wishful thinking, but was I her N0?

    That is admittedly a strong hint.


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  • #1212
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    And more proof on GnR. Of course a seer would be overexcited if their peek resulted in a wolf.
    Ectoplasm wrote: »
    Fair enough. I might be a tad overexcited as I've got a strong feeling on a wolf. :o

    Just has to be??


  • #1213
    kitten_k
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,318 ✭✭✭kitten_k


    We are in trouble now with Ecto gone, hopefully we can get some information from her posts.

    @Baggly - I voted for Tusk on D0 because he was my most wolfie when I was voting, I was then AFK for the rest of the night so never changed.


  • #1214
    Baggly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    You arent going to get an argument from me on lynching GNR.


  • #1215
    Baggly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    kitten_k wrote: »
    We are in trouble now with Ecto gone, hopefully we can get some information from her posts.

    @Baggly - I voted for Tusk on D0 because he was my most wolfie when I was voting, I was then AFK for the rest of the night so never changed.

    I appreciate the explanation but that doesnt assuage my doubts on you. We both voted for him early and both werent around to change our votes (not that i was going to). But its very conceivable your wolf buddies would know your vote was there and spread their votes to other candidates to make sure you got off the hook.


  • #1216
    Clarabel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Clarabel


    Baggly wrote: »
    This game was organised after i had already committed to ref! Im reffing again tonight as well. Im around all day though.

    But my point was your table has me posting after 6pm yesterday, which isn't the case.

    Ah I only took the figures this morning and reduced mine and your figures, you are right I didn't take enough posts off yours

    Person D2 up to 6pm D2 at lynch Posted D2 6pm - 10pm
    Baggly 92 92 0
    kitten_k 29 35 6
    Kolido 20 26 6
    sullivlo 43 52 9
    duffman13 33 43 10
    Whiplashy 51 62 11
    Green&Red 120 132 12
    Ectoplasm 76 91 15
    tusk 202 224 22
    quickbeam 160 198 38
    Clarabel 77 115 38


  • #1217
    Baggly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Was GNR under any pressure from lynch last night?

    How far are we from LYLO?


  • #1218
    kitten_k
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,318 ✭✭✭kitten_k


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Found it!! GnR's a wolf! Fuuuuuuuuuck!!!

    Good spot QB, very subtle by Ecto.
    quickbeam wrote: »
    And, maybe wishful thinking, but was I her N0?

    I don't remember her putting any pressure on you during the game (will need to look back) so not beyond the realms of possibility.
    Baggly wrote: »
    I appreciate the explanation but that doesnt assuage my doubts on you. We both voted for him early and both werent around to change our votes (not that i was going to). But its very conceivable your wolf buddies would know your vote was there and spread their votes to other candidates to make sure you got off the hook.

    Your doubts are noted :p
    Not much I can say to them though as I've no reason as to why G&R was the last vote.


  • #1219
    Clarabel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Clarabel


    giphy.gif


  • #1220
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Okay, let's see if I can do wagonomics now based on me being N0 cleared and GnR being N1 found:
    sKeith wrote: »
    Day 1 is over.

    Lynch results.

    Votee|Voted by
    Strawberry Milkshake|tritium, sullivlo, Clarabel, tusk, Green&Red
    tusk|kitten_k, baggly, duffman13
    kitten_k|Strawberry Milkshake, Whiplashy
    quickbeam|kolido
    Clarabel|Ectoplasm
    Baggly|quickbeam

    Strawberry Milkshake has been lynched. The were vanilla villager.

    Night 1 commences.


    No more posting until after munch results.

    Thank you.
    sKeith wrote: »
    Day 2 is over.

    Please cease posting.

    Lynch results.

    tusk : Baggly, duffman13, Clarabel
    Baggly : Green&Red, Kolido
    Clarabel : Whiplashy, kitten_k
    kitten_k : tusk, sullivlo
    Green&Red : Ectoplasm
    Kolido : quickbeam

    tusk was lynched, they were a vanilla villager.

    Night 2 begins.

    So, I'm no expert on wagonomics, and open to any of this being challenged:

    Two villagers in top two spots D1 so no reason for wolves to vote to save their teammate. Could potentially mean just the one wolf voter for Strawbs, ie GnR?

    Probably then one on Tusk, so Kitten, Bags or Duff.

    Then one on an outlier, so Whippy or Kolido


    Day 2, GnR not really in trouble lynch-wise. Only Ecto on him. GnR voted Bags where it was fairly tight at the top with Tusk getting 3 votes, and next 3 players getting 2 votes. Probably rules Bags out as a teammate.

    Would two wolves vote for Bags? Could rule out Kolido as wolf?

    If we're ruling out Kolido, then that means Whippy is a wolf per D1 votes (one of the two outliers).

    If Whippy is a wolf, would two wolves vote for Clara? Could rule both Clara and Kitten out as wolves.

    Which leaves just Duff as a Tusk voter D1 as a wolf.

    So there you go? Thoughts?


  • #1221
    Clarabel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Clarabel


    Bags you interacted quite a bit with GnR yesterday I got the feeling you said towards the end it felt to you like he was village? Thoughts now?


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  • #1222
    Whiplashy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,117 ✭✭✭Whiplashy


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Found it!! GnR's a wolf! Fuuuuuuuuuck!!!

    Just catching up now. Sorry G&R but I’m going to have to vote you. I really thought you were village :(

    Balls!!!! to losing our seer :(


  • #1223
    Kolido
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭Kolido


    Just back from the dentist, got a tooth pulled (yes villagers have teeth also)
    And now I see the seer was munched. My day is not getting of to a good stsrt.

    Ecto would probably have dropped hint along the way with only one vil role in the game. How many peeks wpuld she have got, 3?


  • #1224
    Baggly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    quickbeam wrote: »
    https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/b-static.net/vbulletin/images/editor/undo.gifOkay, let's see if I can do wagonomics now based on me being N0 cleared and GnR being N1 found:


    So, I'm no expert on wagonomics, and open to any of this being challenged:

    Two villagers in top two spots D1 so no reason for wolves to vote to save their teammate. Could potentially mean just the one wolf voter for Strawbs, ie GnR?

    Probably then one on Tusk, so Kitten, Bags or Duff.

    Then one on an outlier, so Whippy or Kolido

    Day 2, GnR not really in trouble lynch-wise. Only Ecto on him. GnR voted Bags where it was fairly tight at the top with Tusk getting 3 votes, and next 3 players getting 2 votes. Probably rules Bags out as a teammate.

    Would two wolves vote for Bags? Could rule out Kolido as wolf?

    If we're ruling out Kolido, then that means Whippy is a wolf per D1 votes (one of the two outliers).

    If Whippy is a wolf, would two wolves vote for Clara? Could rule both Clara and Kitten out as wolves.

    Which leaves just Duff as a Tusk voter D1 as a wolf.

    So there you go? Thoughts?

    You are not n0 cleared. This analysis is interesting though.
    Clarabel wrote: »
    Bags you interacted quite a bit with GnR yesterday I got the feeling you said towards the end it felt to you like he was village? Thoughts now?

    No not at all. I dont think thats accurate at all.



    On readback through last night, there was an response from GNR on kittens posts essentially calling them TWTBAW. I dont think he would do that if he was a wolf. Maybe im wrong. Probably lessens the likelihood of the scenarios i posted earlier.


  • #1225
    Whiplashy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,117 ✭✭✭Whiplashy


    QB I ain’t no wolf so you’re right you’re no expert at wagonomics. I’m also not comfortable with clearing you after you attempting to start a CFD two nights in a row. Ectos post on you could have just been gut reaction to your posts.

    I’m not going to be around much today as heading to the hospital. Don’t think it really matters though as G&R has to be lynched tonight. Sticking in my vote now.


  • #1226
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Baggly wrote: »
    You are not n0 cleared. This analysis is interesting though.
    Whiplashy wrote: »
    QB I ain’t no wolf so you’re right you’re no expert at wagonomics. I’m also not comfortable with clearing you after you attempting to start a CFD two nights in a row. Ectos post on you could have just been gut reaction to your posts.

    Yeah, fair enough. I know I'm not Lock Clear, but I know I'm good, so I'm happy to use the assumption of me being good in my analysis because I know it's true. The outputs may be flawed, but the inputs I'm wholly confident of, even if other players aren't.


  • #1227
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Baggly wrote: »
    On readback through last night, there was an response from GNR on kittens posts essentially calling them TWTBAW. I dont think he would do that if he was a wolf. Maybe im wrong. Probably lessens the likelihood of the scenarios i posted earlier.

    Do both "he" here refer to GnR? Are you doubting him being a wolf now?

    Or is second "he" meant to be "she" referring to Kitten?


  • #1228
    Baggly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Second he should be a she.


  • #1229
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    I encourage all players to trawl through Ecto's posts for hints on her N0 btw. I know I'm good so I don't need convincing of that. I'd actually (in some ways) like if she did have another person as I could then have two people to be confident in instead of one.


  • #1230
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Baggly wrote: »
    Second he should be a she.

    Cool, thanks for clarification.

    I'm not even going to go there ....


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  • #1231
    Baggly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Why would Ecto suss Clara D1 enough to vote her, but then peek GNR.


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