US Presidential Election 2020

Rjd2 wrote: »

I'm biased when it comes to Harris as I have bet her at 33/1 a few years ago, but getting a little concerned right now sadly.

https://twitter.com/SenKamalaHarris/status/1110301531306409986

This is her with AIPAC who have came under attack from the left of the party aka those who don't trust her whatsoever. Swerving the convention like all the other front runners and then meeting them with big smiles is a bit of a mis step. She is a bit all over the place when it comes to reparations and prostitution and other issues when it comes to the progressives.

I know some have said she may be the Dem version of Rubio aka the chosen one by the establishment but like Marco this not her time whatsoever.

My bank balance hopes the above is wrong though.:(

I can easily see her winning the Dems nomination but I can also see her loosing them the election if Trump returns to form* and the economy stays buoyant.

As far as I can see she has most of the negatives of Hillary Clinton, too establishment to fire up the economic left and too into identity** politics to peel away swing and disillusioned Republican voters and not offering anything new or interesting.

Look at the groups that she is courting to support her primary at the minute.
To quote this Reuters article "teachers unions, women and black voters", that will win her the primary but those are all demographics that the Democrats do pretty ok with anyway.

In particular black voters are overwhelmingly Democrat anyway a Dem candidate has to do very very little to win that vote, how's a black candidate from California talking about some form of repartitions for slavery going to play in the swing states that she needs to win, its not simply about white voters either how will it be perceived by Hispanic, who are both a larger and less loyal as % to the democrats group. AFAIK Obama always downplayed any talk of repartitions presumably because he presumably understood how to win elections.



* Trump really isn't a great politician, he was surprisingly good at campaigning though

** All politics is identity politics in some way but Harris can easily be stereotyped to be playing it.

*** https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-harris/kamala-harris-courts-unions-minorities-with-call-to-raise-teacher-pay-idUSKCN1R70Z8

rossie1977 wrote: »

No real change over last week

Prefer live markets, rather than sample polls. The big change in the last week is some shortening on the Butthurt chap, overtaking Yang as the wildcard outsider (for Dem nom):

Inevitable stories are starting up already about Biden, perhaps he won't run after all?

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1112016906477813760

Polls aside^, the real-world money-markets are shortening still, on Buttgieg. Close or equal to Biden.

I may have been a bit flippant on the Majors growing popularity before, but really can't see any great performance to come.
What's this chaps gameplan, is he simply an super-liberal two-fingers up to Trump?



Am still puzzled by the fact that Yang hasn't won this, 2yrs early.
His USP needs re-reading a few times it's that surreal.

$1,000 free bucks for every adult in the country, every month for 4yrs at least.
That's: $1,000 free bucks for every adult in the country, every month. Free.

There's a brand new uk lottery game called 'set for life' which offers £10,000 everymonth if you win.
When it started, the traffic crashed their servers, and must have close to 1/2million players on each draw, it's not free to play.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

peddlelies wrote: »

Yup I know. I was trying to make the point she probably wasn't a Bernie surrogate.

Yeah, but what makes you say that? The article doesn't seem to make that suggestion at all.

Intentional misinformation.