Ryanair posts first quarterly loss since 2014

It is standard that you post at least a little analysis rather than do a bare link-drop...

Shn99 wrote: »

The title of the thread explains the article..

That doesn't counter my point. This isn't a blog/twitter/news site.

When you get in under it I think that staff cost increases are only a small part of it, the bigger issue was that they flew more pax's (8% more block hours flown and 8% more passengers) but fares fell considerably (avg fares -6%) while fuel prices were rising. Revenue is up +9%, but fares revenue only +1%, it's ancillary driving it at +26%.

Costs are +20% (+259m); which is driven 2/3 by fuel (+138.7m), followed by staff costs (+56.5m) - And within the staff increase is the pilots pay increase, but also again naturally rising staff costs thanks to the +8% increase in block hours. But only 4 of their cost headings are up by less than +9% (airport charges, route charges and maintenance; and aircraft rentals is the only heading that's down.)

The Economist keeps beating the drum that price competition from the likes of Wizz, in lower cost areas, is putting Ryanair under pressure. Ryanair keeps emphasizing that all its competition don't have the legs to go the financial distance with it, which is I think not untrue. The tacit message to shareholders of their slides on industry consolidation is "We'll weather this low fares/rising fuel prices thing, they won't."

Bummer1234 wrote: »

Also going on what perhaps Nijmegen is saying...People didn't wanna risk booking with ryanair for a period with a all the strikes and went with Aer lingus...

Would this be a contributing fact also and have a dint on finances?

I don't think the data support the assertion that bookings are suffering as a result of strikes. You can find their passenger data here, and I would summarise by saying that their year on year growth in the second half of calendar 2018 was significantly stronger than their growth in the second half of calendar 17.

Indeed if we look at their growth rate, Oct Nov Dec was +11 +11 +12% YoY vs +8, 6 and 3% YoY the prior year.

rivegauche wrote: »

They could have made a profit if they really wanted to do so.
They want to drive airlines out of business and that costs money.
This quarter is the quarter in which you hurt your competitors and hope they don't crawl through to Summer.

Basically. By driving down fares they're doing what they do any time EasyJet or similar try to get into Dublin. What would worry shareholders more is whether or not they're getting on top of the fundamental management issues, the loss itself is a blip I suspect.

Whilst I think overall they still have alot to sort out, this loss is about as significant to them as someone in there loosing the office stapler. The share price is rallying a little bit too.

They are getting hammered on Lauda but there is an end game.

Good to see O'Leary stepping back to something more analytical which is really his quality . I think Jacobs has a good shot at CEO - Bellew too busy acting nice with the crews

satguy wrote: »

if Aerlingus is round about the same price, why would any of us do MOL a favour and stay with Ryanair.

Anecdotally that gap seems to have gotten alot wider lately. I'd always go with Aer Lingus if the price difference was about €20 on a €150 or less airfare but I rarely find that anymore.

Ryanair's late booking fares (excluding day of departure) have been very low.

Exceptions to everything of course but the differential is generally pretty high and as MOL has said many times "lowest fare always wins". Many many times I've sworn never again but when I've a choice of an €80 return to Madrid or a €320 one booked a couple of days out - well "past hurts" and all that go out the window and it's worth the punt

We always make sure to board paddy last and take a leisurely stroll down the aisle while waiting for "boarding complete" and take whatever two seats together are available- hasn't let us down yet and plenty of times thats the exit row