Brexit Discussion Thread VI

ancapailldorcha · 30-01-2019 12:10PM

Bambi wrote: »

Worth noting that the CTA is more a custom or gentleman's agreement than a treaty, not sure it's based on legislation at all.

It's alluded to in various bits of legislation but you are essentially correct.

prawnsambo · 30-01-2019 12:10PM

downcow wrote: »

I will absolutely.
George Galloway was on Nolan this morning. I only had time to listen to first 10 minutes but I never thought I would see the day George would agree with me. He is basically saying Eu have lots of form for saying no no no and then at 11 hours 59 mins saying yes.
I’ll post the link later.

This has been brought up time and time again and never been supported with instances where this has happened. What has been proven is that the EU are extremely difficult negotiators to get one over on. They are quite prepared to walk away from a deal if the conditions aren't what they require. For example, the Belgians have referred CETA to the ECJ as they are not convinced that the deal complies with EU law. And this wil take its time and everyone is happy to wait. And if it turns out that they are right, the Canadians will be told it has to change or it's off.

MrMusician18 · 30-01-2019 12:14PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Hey I agree, but Westminster obviously doesnt care for people outside of England, some might not even be able to point out northern ireland on a map I bet

Some would say it doesn't care about people North of the Watford gap, but maybe that's a discussion for another day

10000maniacs · 30-01-2019 12:16PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I guess it’s called playing devils advocate. Hardly a presenters job to take sides and give any side an easy ride, whatever the position.

O'Rourke was saying we need to throw May a bone of some sort to save 1000's of jobs in Ireland. How is this even possible?
The ERG only voted for the Brady amendment because she told them she would go to Brussels and get rid of the backstop from her deal. In 2 weeks time when the backstop is still there, the ERG will pull support from Mays deal.

prawnsambo · 30-01-2019 12:18PM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Questions like this for example. I have an Ulster Bank account, it's a UK based company, should I switch to an Irish bank ?

From what I understand, Ulster Bank split their NI and Ireland divisions into separate entities a couple of years ago and the headquarters for the Irish entity is in Dublin. Headed up by an ex-Deutsche Bank executive.

So afaik, you can continue as you are. On a wider note, most UK financial and insurance services companies have created (or already have) EU based entities to cover the eventuality of a no-deal brexit. Like Barclays moving their entire EU branch ownership to Dublin - all £250 billion worth of it.

Infini · 30-01-2019 12:20PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

This has been brought up time and time again and never been supported with instances where this has happened. What has been proven is that the EU are extremely difficult negotiators to get one over on. They are quite prepared to walk away from a deal if the conditions aren't what they require. For example, the Belgians have referred CETA to the ECJ as they are not convinced that the deal complies with EU law. And this wil take its time and everyone is happy to wait. And if it turns out that they are right, the Canadians will be told it has to change or it's off.

EU bureaucracy can be slow but lets be honest if the one thing the EU is really good at in its existence its DETAILS expecially regarding trade. They leave nothing unchecked expecially when it come's to having to make sure it works across 27 states.

Skelet0n · 30-01-2019 12:21PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

Whatever about customs check, which would be disruptive and very problematic, any change to the free movement of people across the border would virtually guarantee a border poll and a united Ireland.

Literally 1000s of people are cross border workers in both directions, (I'm one of them) That cannot be impeded in any way.

Hey I agree, but Westminster obviously doesnt care for people outside of England, some might not even be able to point out northern ireland on a map I bet

https://www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/10155453593501939/

Channel 4 did that exact experiment.

Infini · 30-01-2019 12:27PM

Skelet0n wrote: »

https://www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/10155453593501939/

Channel 4 did that exact experiment.

Have to say though some of those border drawings are just really bad though the last guy got it close enough!

Does go to show how badly uninformed people are over there and how their own education system has really let them down expecially on the geography of their own country and neighbors! Even one of them saying they were never taught this in school!

Still that old lady in it though thinking the Irish will have to "lump it".... seriously she's going to get a rude awakening if they go off the cliff.....

Macy0161 · 30-01-2019 12:27PM

Shelga wrote: »

Thanks for clearing that up.

What is the point of a non-binding amendment though? What an absolute waste of time. With 58 days to go until economic suicide, parliament still seems to revel in the ridiculousness of their traditions- they are like a baying mob- it is crazy to watch.

It does have some merit, as it shows that if push came to shove, HoC would back something akin to the Cooper amendment. It was considered a Government defeat, as it weakens their position of it's this deal or no deal.

The way out remains a legally binding motion delaying or withdrawing Article 50, and true cross party talks (with enough cover for both May and Corbyn) so they can go to the EU without some or all of the May's red lines. There appears to be a majority for a customs union or some variation of it, and that gets rid of the requirements for the backstop.

May won't put State ahead of Party and move. It's really getting little discussion in the UK media that this is the real intransigence of the whole process. Corbyn doing an awful job of getting out there too in fairness, but the media are too focused on him and Labour Party issues to take it up. The EU, even this week, have said they'll reopen, without the red lines.

Macy0161 · 30-01-2019 12:31PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

The ERG only voted for the Brady amendment because she told them she would go to Brussels and get rid of the backstop from her deal. In 2 weeks time when the backstop is still there, the ERG will pull support from Mays deal.

And ignores the massive leap of faith that any removal of the backstop would actually get ERG/ HoC support anyway. We/ EU could cave, and it still not get through the next "meaningful" vote - the Brady Motion was also non binding. It wasn't "get something else and the WA passes" it was "get something else, and we'll see".

Blowfish · 30-01-2019 12:33PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

So afaik, you can continue as you are. On a wider note, most UK financial and insurance services companies have created (or already have) EU based entities to cover the eventuality of a no-deal brexit. Like Barclays moving their entire EU branch ownership to Dublin - all £250 billion worth of it.

In addition, the Irish Gov is legislating to protect any existing insurance policies etc. so that they are still valid, even if it's the case that they can't be renewed.

bob mcbob · 30-01-2019 12:34PM

downcow wrote: »

I will absolutely.
George Galloway was on Nolan this morning. I only had time to listen to first 10 minutes but I never thought I would see the day George would agree with me. He is basically saying Eu have lots of form for saying no no no and then at 11 hours 59 mins saying yes.
I’ll post the link later.

Seriously George Galloway!

I heard that Coco the clown was discussing the merits of the WTO trading rules on a podcast.

gmisk · 30-01-2019 12:34PM

Infini wrote: »

Have to say though some of those border drawings are just really bad though the last guy got it close enough! Does go to show how badly uninformed people are over there and how their own education system has really let them down expecially on the geography of their own country and neighbors! Even one of them saying they were never taught this in school!

Still that old lady in it though thinking the Irish will have to "lump it".... seriously she's going to get a rude awakening if they go off the cliff.....

"The irish are just making trouble because they lost...its a bit petty isnt it really"

What the hell is she on about what did ireland lose?

And that other fella, what would really solve the problem (and it would be in eveyones?!?! interest...) would be if ireland left the EU.....no your grand cheers!

The UK and ireland to a lesser extent are going to really suffer no matter what happens at this stage.
Lots of jobs leaving the UK already, I have a good friend for example who works for the european drug agency in London, its not as if they could stay in the UK, so they are moving to Amsterdam, I am sure lots of other businesses will follow suit ireland might profit from some of these I suppose, but the cost of office space and accommodation especially in Dublin will limit this IMO.

Purgative · 30-01-2019 12:36PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Comparing may with Churchill is laughable

I didn't intend it as a complement.

Infini wrote: »

Makes no difference in the end. If they choose to abandon logic ....

Agreed. But above all I think she wants to win - never mind what she ends up winning.

Daemonic · 30-01-2019 12:43PM

downcow wrote: »

I will absolutely.
George Galloway was on Nolan this morning. I only had time to listen to first 10 minutes but I never thought I would see the day George would agree with me. He is basically saying Eu have lots of form for saying no no no and then at 11 hours 59 mins saying yes.
I’ll post the link later.

The BBC fact checker has debunked the 'blinking at the last minute' myth when it's regarding treaties.
Other discussions maybe, but for treaties they are very consistent in not changing them.

Edit: Professor Moriarty beat me to it. Thread moves fast.

FrancieBrady · 30-01-2019 12:44PM

What these people don't realise is the 'eleventh hour' has passed and the compromises were made when May agreed the deal.

March 29th is a UK deadline to accept the deal, revoke or crash out.
It has nothing to do with anyone else really.

joe40 · 30-01-2019 12:46PM

Obviously the DUP and hardline Brexiteers won't agree to any form of backstop (even without the backstop they would find something else) but how to the numbers in HoC stack up if the EU hold firm and they are faced with the real prospect of "no deal".
In that situation is there the numbers among all the MPs to accept the original WA with perhaps a few tweaks/fudges to make it look like she got something.

It is impossible to please the DUP and the ERG but they should be sidelined.

As the DUP were sidelined in the GFA negotiations and eventually came on board.

They are ideologically driven so logic and pragmatism don't apply

Joe_ Public · 30-01-2019 12:48PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

O'Rourke was saying we need to throw May a bone of some sort to save 1000's of jobs in Ireland. How is this even possible?
The ERG only voted for the Brady amendment because she told them she would go to Brussels and get rid of the backstop from her deal. In 2 weeks time when the backstop is still there, the ERG will pull support from Mays deal.

In full James Delingpole mode, I can’t answer that question ;-)

But I did hear a German mep suggest may was better off traveling to dublin today rather than Brussels so maybe SOR was touching on a reasonable point.

But to be honest I don’t believe Sean necessarily believes that, but was just trying to bring something different to the debate or move it on, if even a mm. RTÉ notably have downgraded the brexit story last couple of days, coveney was on to talk about nurses first and foremost, and I think they’ve made a good call as yesterday effectively threw up very little new to talk about.

FrancieBrady · 30-01-2019 12:48PM

joe40 wrote: »

Obviously the DUP and hardline Brexiteers won't agree to any form of backstop (even without the backstop they would find something else) but how to the numbers in HoC stack up if the EU hold firm and they are faced with the real prospect of "no deal".
In that situation is there the numbers among all the MPs to accept the original WA with perhaps a few tweaks/fudges to make it look like she got something.

It is impossible to please the DUP and the ERG but they should be sidelined.

As the DUP were sidelined in the GFA negotiations and eventually came on board.

They are ideologically driven so logic and pragmatism don't apply

No, what the DUP did around AIA and the GFA shows that they are essentially pragmatic and will feather the nest when it suits them. The shouting and ranting is just for the voter base.

Water John · 30-01-2019 12:56PM

Well the DUP made sure they were comfy and warm with a good ash fire.
TM's Tory coalition will have fallen apart by the next vote in Parliament. She knows she'll get nothing and she'll dare the ERG and DUP to back Her Deal as opposed to Not Leaving.
If Yvette Cooper resubmits her motion, I feel it will eventually succeed coming up to the deadline. Remember Remainer Ministers held off voting for it yesterday.
A swing of 15/20 will force this on TM's Executive.

snotboogie · 30-01-2019 12:57PM

joe40 wrote: »

Obviously the DUP and hardline Brexiteers won't agree to any form of backstop (even without the backstop they would find something else) but how to the numbers in HoC stack up if the EU hold firm and they are faced with the real prospect of "no deal".
In that situation is there the numbers among all the MPs to accept the original WA with perhaps a few tweaks/fudges to make it look like she got something.

It is impossible to please the DUP and the ERG but they should be sidelined.

As the DUP were sidelined in the GFA negotiations and eventually came on board.

They are ideologically driven so logic and pragmatism don't apply

You are looking at this from a country perspective but May has shown that she is an ardent follower of the old adage; myself first, party second, country third.

Myself first: Does this decision keep May as leader?
Party Second: Is this good for the Tory Party?
Country third: Is this good for the UK?

May will not do anything that will remove her from power and she will always put the well being of the Tory Party ahead of the well being of the state. It's a lot easier to understand her motivations when you look at her actions through this prism. I don't think she will cross party boundaries for the sake of the UK.

Peregrinus · 30-01-2019 01:01PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Just on this, it is the one criticism I have of the government in relation to Brexit. They have been far to slow to publicly state the actual implications of a no deal. They should be out telling people the answers to the basic questions. What happens to UK based pensions, bank accounts. What about holidays booked through the UK. What is going to happen in regards to planned holiday to France through Eurotunnel.

IMO, people need to start being told of the practical outcome of a non deal so that we can start to prepare. They seem to have hitched their horse completely to getting a deal and seem unwilling or unable to be able to countenance anything else

Why is it the Irish government's job to tell people what will happen to UK-based pensions and bank accounts, or how traffic through the Eurotunnel will be affected? The Irish government has no control over, responsiblity for or special knowledge about these things. They are the responsibility of - duh the British government.

The Irish government has done a good deal of no-deal planning, as has the EU, but mainly focussed on the concerns of business trading with the UK, not consumers buying goods and services in the UK.

Foreign Affairs and Finance have published Brexit preparedness notices, and you can read these on their respective websites, but of course they deal with matters within the responsiblity of those Departments, not matters for which the UK goverment will be the decision-maker. Business, Enterprise and Employment has a very proactive Brexit preparedness programme, but it focusses on business, not consumers. If you run a business you probably already know about it but, if not, you can find gach eolas on the DBEI website. And of course the EU Commission has published its own series of Brexit preparedness notices, and no-deal contingency plans, which again are on the web.

First Up · 30-01-2019 01:02PM

joe40 wrote:

As the DUP were sidelined in the GFA negotiations and eventually came on board.

They are ideologically driven so logic and pragmatism don't apply

I wouldn't underestimate the pressure they are experiencing from the
NI business and agriculture communities.

30-01-2019 01:06PM

First Up wrote: »

I wouldn't underestimate the pressure they are experiencing from the
NI business and agriculture communities.

Look at Sammy's chippy remark last night. They do not give a shi*te.

The lemmings will vote for them come hell or high water.

FrancieBrady · 30-01-2019 01:09PM

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Look at Sammy's chippy remark last night. They do not give a shi*te.

The lemmings will vote for them come hell or high water.

The DUP were not always the dominant unionist party in Northern Ireland, their position isn't unassailable.
The ground is shifting in northern Ireland and if they cause a no deal exit, it could shift quite dramatically.

trellheim · 30-01-2019 01:10PM

Thoughts

There is no majority for any viable deal in the HoC. Worse any Minority deal will be actively voted down

Even worse there is a likely majority in the HoC (crowd mentality) that believes the EU will cave on the backstop

By the time this mistake is realized it will be too late.

=> No DEAL is all I can see

First Up · 30-01-2019 01:11PM

Topgear on Dave wrote:

Look at Sammy's chippy remark last night. They do not give a shi*te.

We'll see

WomanSkirtFan8 · 30-01-2019 01:12PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Edwina Curry coming up on Pat Kenny now for anyone who thinks they may benefit from a bit of raised blood pressure this morning.

Heardvit. The woman is just as delusional ad the rest of the UK. Tried to talk down. To this country as well. Bad move edwina! You should really know better than that.

Tell me how · 30-01-2019 01:15PM

Listening to Euronews European Correspondent, Shona Murray, talking to Pat Kenny she said that the reaction in Europe this morning was actually quite surprising in that the behaviour in the HoC and the statements by UK MP's has strengthened European resolve not to cave in to what they see as flat out demands.

ARNOLD J RIMMER · 30-01-2019 01:15PM

I think in reality, its the DUP who are the only ones concerned about the Backstop.

The Tories and Labour know that the majority of people in NI dont see that backstop as an issue.

With TM and JC meeting, they will look to get a deal passed (which will include the backstop) where the DUP final votes will not matter if they vote against.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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