Brexit Discussion Thread VI

FrancieBrady · 24-01-2019 04:05PM

eggman100 wrote: »

The DUP are very relevant and they have put in a lot of work for brexit and made very good cases. They will be rewarded I think

So relevant are they that May has attempted to shaft them and looks odds on to succeed if you believe that there is no way in hell parliament will allow a crash out.

murphaph · 24-01-2019 04:09PM

eggman100 wrote: »

I have studied the EU since the late 90s and seen it go from bad to worse. I completely understand it and have been wanting the UK to leave since then, so this is nothing new and its a long time coming. It would have happened earlier and with a bigger vote majority had they given us the referendum years before instead of when it suited Cameron thinking his remain position would win. Your reply shows you have no idea about the EU, or why the UK voted to leave. Until you educate yourself, you will always be frustrated about it

Illogical position. The EU got worse in your opinion but you say the majority for remain grew in that time. How does that work?

Borderhopper · 24-01-2019 04:09PM

eggman100 wrote: »

Either you weren't there or you have short memories. Nobody did as much for the remain campaign as Cameron and Osborne. They both campaigned their asses off telling us what terrible things would happen if we voted to leave

But the U.K. hasn't left yet.

LuckyLloyd · 24-01-2019 04:11PM

eggman100 wrote: »

The DUP are very relevant and they have put in a lot of work for brexit and made very good cases. They will be rewarded I think

They were briefly relevant until they failed to offer any compromise and showed their hand as akin to that of the ERG. So May went and concluded a deal that ignores their concerns and her strategy - such as one exists - is to try and bring Brexit down to her deal / No Brexit as the ultimate options on the table. The DUP are off to the side, but it's now known where they are and as such they have lost any relevance they might have had.

In terms of being rewarded, if they achieve the No Deal outcome they effectively are aiding from here then they will be on the hook for the consequences suffered in NI. They may ultimately be creating the very situation that accelerates the one thing they absolutely loathe: a UI.

I cannot see how they could objectively be praised for their Brexit approach in any way.

LuckyLloyd · 24-01-2019 04:12PM

Strazdas wrote: »

All bluff and bluster. Tom Newton-Dunn of the Sun said on the Sky papers review the other evening that most Brexiteers were secretly livid with Dyson for announcing this eight weeks before Brexit.

Of course they were / are. Every business contingency plan that starts to kick in and is made visible weakens their argument. But that won't stop the true believers from spinning their little hearts out!

Thomas_IV · 24-01-2019 04:13PM

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0124/1025281-plans-for-brexit/

Government to publish plans for no-deal Brexit today

It is understood the 'heads of legislation' on a no-deal Brexit runs to more than 100 pages, and follows nine ministers bringing 17 different memos to Cabinet last Tuesday.

The heads of bill covers a variety of areas and attempts to both retain cooperation which all ready exists between Ireland and the UK, as well as provide additional protections Irish citizens.

In Justice, the legislation will examine who to deal with both extradition cases and the exchange of related documents. Immigration would be key area of focus.

In Social Protection, provisions are to be made on how to ensure workers in Ireland get their wages in the event of a UK company based here going insolvent post-Brexit.

Other areas covered by the legislation include finance, energy, transport, health and education.

Preparing for what becomes more looking as the inevitable.

Others beyond the Irish Sea are already making a fortune out of this:

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0122/1024795-brexit-survival-kit/

Brexit survival kit on sale for £295

With just nine weeks to go until Britain is due to leave the European Union, a company is selling worried Britons a survival kit to help them prepare for the worst.

The "Brexit Box", retailing at £295, provides food rations to last 30 days, according to its producer, businessman James Blake who says he has already sold hundreds of them.

With still no deal on how Britain will trade with the EU once it leaves, retailers and manufacturers have warned a no-deal Brexit could cause food and medicine shortages due to expected chaos at ports that could paralyse supply lines.

The Brexit Box includes 60 portions of freeze-dried UK favourites - chicken tikka, chilli con carne, macaroni cheese and chicken fajitas, 48 portions of dried mince and chicken, firelighter liquid and an emergency water filter.

...

The Brexit Box's long shelf life - the canned food will last up to 25 years - is appealing for consumers.

This box costs estimated €339!

If the UK is leaving with a deal and that means a Transition period is to take place, some of the customers who paid that much money might either feel a bit cheated of they can us that box for the next 25 years. But the fact that as the seller said hundreds of them boxes are already sold shows that people are now taking it very serious and likely that a hard Brexit will come to pass.

I'd think that for £295 in a month one gets more groceries for that amount of money. But well, this is another thing Brexit 'creates'.

murphaph · 24-01-2019 04:13PM

eggman100 wrote: »

Living in the UK indeed I do for many years. I have seen for myself how inefficient services are under state/public ownership, and how they are loss making. Government services always are, especially under socialist governments. I've seen the benefits of privatisation and how its saves the taxpayer so much money that can be spent on other things or to keep taxes low.
The public transport of Ireland and the UK cannot be compared. In many parts of Ireland there is no service beyond Athlone. Or like 1 bus a day - a train? Forget it what train. I do agree though that the UK trains could be improved, but taking them into state ownership again? No not the answer

But the EU has encouraged the privatisation of things like railways, forcing state operators to open up the infrastructure to competitors. We have several operators in this part of Germany. What's your point again?

Panrich · 24-01-2019 04:15PM

Holidaymakers will be bumped off ferries to allow delivery of essential supplies in the event of a crashout. When you start to think about shipping medicines and vital supplies via passenger ferries, it's time to look at your plan again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-46946499

Captain Obvious · 24-01-2019 04:21PM

Free movement applies to citizens of the EU.

Edit: This was a reply to eggman who seemed to be under the impression that refugees were using free movement to get into the UK.

ancapailldorcha · 24-01-2019 04:21PM

Off topic post deleted. Eggman100, please read the charter before posting here again and do not drag the thread off topic.

eggman100 · 24-01-2019 04:24PM

Panrich wrote: »

Holidaymakers will be bumped off ferries to allow delivery of essential supplies in the event of a crashout. When you start to think about shipping medicines and vital supplies via passenger ferries, it's time to look at your plan again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-46946499

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Project fear strikes again.

ancapailldorcha · 24-01-2019 04:26PM

eggman100 wrote: »

Project fear strikes again.

No more inflammatory soundbytes please.

Leroy42 · 24-01-2019 04:28PM

eggman100 wrote: »

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces

What regulations are they going to base the import on? Will they have a new medicines application board up and running and checking or will they simply use the existing EU system? And will they let them in without any checks, as the same would then have to be done for any other country and how will the UK ensure the medicines then?

Or if they place the WTO tariffs, as teh likes of JRM suggest they wil do, who will pay that extra cost?

jm08 · 24-01-2019 04:29PM

eggman100 wrote: »

That is a difficult one to call. They may have priced in what they think is going to happen already. Don't forget that currency trading is speculative and it can be oversold or undersold.
In the case of no deal I predict the £ could fall initially then as the UK reaps the benefits and adjusts to the new status quo of being no longer a member of the EU, the £ will rise back up to old levels. The Eurozone will be weaker without its top 3 contributor and the EU will have to find the money from France or Germany but they aren't doing too well either. EU contributions will rise from remaining member states. Taxes will rise

Looks like the UK will still be contributing to the fund:

Most of the revenue from tariffs on all non-EU goods goes straight to Brussels. These revenues, which are known in EU jargon as "own resources", are used to pay for the Common Agricultural Policy's farm payments, regional funds and other things.

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/dan-obrien-if-theres-no-deal-over-brexit-our-choice-is-stark-build-a-hard-border-or-pay-an-enormous-price-37743957.html

Captain Obvious · 24-01-2019 04:30PM

eggman100 wrote: »

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Project fear strikes again.

Who will be delivering these medicines? Will the delivery drivers have to have dual EU/UK nationality? You're not even thinking of practical issues.

eggman100 · 24-01-2019 04:34PM

Thomas_IV wrote: »

This box costs estimated €339!

I'd think that for £295 in a month one gets more groceries for that amount of money. But well, this is another thing Brexit 'creates'.

A business making a lot of money out of very gullible people. Anyone stupid enough not to see how they could put together their own similar box at supermarkets or elsewhere for a fraction of the cost deserve to be fleeced.

Panic room boxes are nothing new by the way they appeared during the financial crash. We survived a two world wars and rations. I think we can survive Brexit lol, even if the hysteria and BS is true, which of course it isn't.

EdgeCase · 24-01-2019 04:44PM

eggman100 wrote: »

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Project fear strikes again.

Some medicines are made in the UK. Quite a lot more are made in the EU, including here and many are made in complex supply chains that need ingredients and components from elsewhere.

Hurrache · 24-01-2019 04:55PM

Someone mentioned this interview earlier, the one in which Martin Howe was on Sky News arguing that there's no need for a border before he came quickly unstuck when faced with facts.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/adam-boulton-and-martin-howe-qc-argue-about-the-irish-backstop-on-sky-news-1-5865131

Hotblack Desiato · 24-01-2019 04:56PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Airbus seems to be moving to Pratt & Whitney (US) and CFM International (France/US) engines for their A220, A320, A350 and the A380 is using the Engine Alliance (GE/Pratt & Whitney).

They still have options for the RR engines on the A330, but I think they are also offering Engine Alliance going forward.

It was always IAE (RR sold their stake in it but are still a supplier) or CFM on the 320ceo family, the 320neo is CFM or P&W, the neo engine options were chosen years ago.

330 ceo is GE, P&W or RR. 330 neo are all RR Trents

350 also all have RR engines. Again a decision made years ago.

380 is EA or RR, according to wikipedia it's about 45%:55%, RR ahead.

220 is P&W. Not an Airbus design, Bombardier made that decision years ago.

To say Brexit has had any impact on engine choices for any model produced in the foreseeable future is a red herring I'm afraid.

Borderhopper · 24-01-2019 05:19PM

eggman100 wrote: »

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Project fear strikes again.

The U.K. makes relatively few medicines, most come from EU companies or EU based subsidiaries. Almost no laboratory diagnostic equipment or consumables are manufactured in the U.K. and almost all is sourced from EU countries. 20 years experience in NHS medical pathology has shown me this.

robinph · 24-01-2019 05:30PM

eggman100 wrote: »

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Project fear strikes again.

Think all of the drugs that keep me alive and in a good mood are only manufactured in the EU. Add on a limited shelf life for some of them and that stopping taking some of them them would be fatal within a day or so I'm quite understandably a bit nervous about any delays that might happen with the surprisingly important trade route between Dover and Calais.

The supply chains have been running along happily for decades, doesn't take much for things to go to pot. Was surprising how long it took for supermarket shelves to get restocked with basic items just last year after a few days of lorries not getting through because of a bit of snow, and that was for products that were produced in the same country and in multiple places.

Call me Al · 24-01-2019 05:34PM

eggman100 wrote: »

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Project fear strikes again.

I guess the authorities will just need to get those outgoing ferries offloaded quick sharp on the EU side before loading them all up to carry back with them.
Just as well there aren't going to be any checks or delays to or from the ports or dock at either end ..... oh wait....

Frank Bullitt · 24-01-2019 05:36PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Someone mentioned this interview earlier, the one in which Martin Howe was on Sky News arguing that there's no need for a border before he came quickly unstick when faced with facts.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/adam-boulton-and-martin-howe-qc-argue-about-the-irish-backstop-on-sky-news-1-5865131

This is a glorious and awkward watch.

mickoneill31 · 24-01-2019 05:43PM

eggman100 wrote: »

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Project fear strikes again.

Studying the EU since the 90s. You should have been studying trade.
Insulin isn't even made in the UK. Many medicines that are required in the UK are made in the EU.

What's the deal with the radioactive materials required for hospitals that come from the UK. I haven't been keeping up to date with what's going to happen there.

I'm sure the UK won't restrict medicines coming in but if they want to get all these great new trade deals after Brexit they'll have to control their borders. That means delays.

And even if there are only delays leaving the UK then the cost of those trucks leaving the UK goes up. Thatll be passed on to the consumer.

ancapailldorcha · 24-01-2019 05:45PM

Mod: Eggman100 will be taking a break.

otnomart · 24-01-2019 06:04PM

Interesting today seeing the positions of two other EU Countries, Austria and Lithuania.
-Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian president, said the EU would agree to a short extension of article 50 but preferably not beyond the European Parliament elections set for May
-But the Lithuanian president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, said a no-deal Brexit would be better than a lengthy extension of article 50.
source for both is the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/24/brexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live
So: if the UK asks for an extension, it seems so far that at least Poland (previous statements I came across) and Lithuania will vote No ?

Captain Obvious · 24-01-2019 06:13PM

otnomart wrote: »

Interesting today seeing the positions of two other EU Countries, Austria and Lithuania.
-Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian president, said the EU would agree to a short extension of article 50 but preferably not beyond the European Parliament elections set for May
-But the Lithuanian president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, said a no-deal Brexit would be better than a lengthy extension of article 50.
source for both is the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/24/brexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live
So: if the UK asks for an extension, it seems so far that at least Poland (previous statements I came across) and Lithuania will vote No ?

Poland at the request of a UK MP no less. Another example of democracy being stamped on by Tories.

Strazdas · 24-01-2019 06:15PM

otnomart wrote: »

Interesting today seeing the positions of two other EU Countries, Austria and Lithuania.
-Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian president, said the EU would agree to a short extension of article 50 but preferably not beyond the European Parliament elections set for May
-But the Lithuanian president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, said a no-deal Brexit would be better than a lengthy extension of article 50.
source for both is the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/24/brexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live
So: if the UK asks for an extension, it seems so far that at least Poland (previous statements I came across) and Lithuania will vote No ?

If they do, we are unlikely to hear about it, just that the EU had come to an agreed position under Barnier. It does suggest though that an extension is by no means a given.

demfad · 24-01-2019 06:28PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

And now we have Tory MP's calling for nationalisation of factories, which thought they were totally against and what they hate so much about Corbyn.

https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1088348314930679809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1088348314930679809&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Fjan%2F24%2Fbrexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live

Yesterday we had JRM calling for the closing of parliament if a vote didn't go they way he liked, so sovereignty up to a point I suppose.

The the collective idea seems to be that democracy in the form of voting is actually undemocratic!

Anecdote about Bannerman: As a UKIP MEP he was fined when Hermann Kelly impersonated him at a State of the Union parliament address so he wouldn't miss an appearance fee.

demfad · 24-01-2019 06:42PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm inclined to disagree. Older people are more likely to vote than younger people and are also less likely to hold social media accounts. I'd say decades of negativity, vitriol and deceit have done more for Brexit than echo chambers.

Agreed. But the aspect that got Brexit, like Trump, from being in a minority position to a majority position were massive targetted disinformation campaigns. In Brexits case about £1 million overspend (biggest fraud in UK election history) was funnelled from Vote Leave to AIQ via Beleavethrown in the last week. This added to the £3.5 m Vote Leave had legally paid AIQ. Those pesky Russians pushing £8 million (mainly to digital campaigns) through Aaron Banks plus whatever their own (seperate Russian) campaign cost them. RT dominated the youtube campaign via Farage.
We know Cambridge Analytica were knocking around too but no estimate yet.
Years of hatred got Leave into the 40s% but Disinformation and criminality on a massive scale got them over the line.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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