Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Leroy42 · 23-01-2019 10:21AM

seamus wrote: »

Realistically we're only concerned about goods anyway, so you pick the major arteries and set up checkpoints to stop and check all southbound commercial vehicles (we don't care about northbound) while allowing passenger vehicles through unchecked on another lane.

Some will take back roads to avoid it, but if you're driving an artic on your employer's time you're going to just take the M1 and not try navigate some rural roads. Getting a grip on 80%+ of goods movements should be doable inside a week. That's not to say the queues will move quickly. There'd be several hours spent waiting to be checked. A man with a chipper van could make a good killing.

A chain is only as strong as the weakest link. If, for example, the UK agree a trade deal with the US and start getting chlorinated chicken, how can we assure the rest of the EU that that is not coming into our products? We can't.

Will they accept a certain %? Doubt it. So in effect we will see all ROI goods being tested in EU ports. In effect the UK will have the same trade terms outside the EU than we will have inside it.

The time is fast approaching where Ireland needs to make a decision. DO we blindly follow the UK off the cliff, or do we stick with the EU. In my opinion, there is only one choice.

Christy42 · 23-01-2019 10:22AM

Get Real wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not sure what the confusion is about this am.
Surely all the posturing, all the negotiating and statements were about the prospect of a hard border if the UK exited without a deal?

Surely that was why we needed a 'backstop'?

We haven't, as yet got an agreed backstop. Of course there will be a hard border in those circumstances?

I agree with you there. I'm just disappointed this morning that I read the EU seems to have put the ball in Ireland's court as they seem to be asking us to accept concessions. Rather than maintain a unified stance

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/eu-now-looks-set-to-ask-ireland-to-accept-concessions-37739911.html

In reality, okay, we'd need a hard border in a no deal Brexit.

But, by the EU asking *US* for concessions, it puts a UK referendum issue in our court, and gives the UK a chance to deflect blame and say "well, we're waiting on Ireland's decision"

Even though Brexit wasn't our idea.

The EU have not asked as far as I can tell. Leo just laid out the options and this was one of them. He should have kept stum or kept a tighter leash on the people in the room though.

Remember this may seem like a get out clause for the UK but their economy still tanks. It is not a real get out for those worried about Brexit there. They just drag us further down with them in this scenario.

prawnsambo · 23-01-2019 10:26AM

Get Real wrote: »

I agree with you there. I'm just disappointed this morning that I read the EU seems to have put the ball in Ireland's court as they seem to be asking us to accept concessions. Rather than maintain a unified stance

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/eu-now-looks-set-to-ask-ireland-to-accept-concessions-37739911.html

In reality, okay, we'd need a hard border in a no deal Brexit.

But, by the EU asking *US* for concessions, it puts a UK referendum issue in our court, and gives the UK a chance to deflect blame and say "well, we're waiting on Ireland's decision"

Even though Brexit wasn't our idea.

You're parrotting a headline in The Indo where the body of the article doesn't back up the headline. As usual.

There is no mention of concessions being required. Just a spin on what was said yeaterday about what a hard brexit would mean for the border. Which, to be brutally honest is pretty much "D'uh". We knew this. We always knew this.

seamus · 23-01-2019 10:27AM

Get Real wrote: »

I agree with you there. I'm just disappointed this morning that I read the EU seems to have put the ball in Ireland's court as they seem to be asking us to accept concessions. Rather than maintain a unified stance

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/eu-now-looks-set-to-ask-ireland-to-accept-concessions-37739911.html

There's nothing in that about asking Ireland to accept concessions.

The EU stating that a hard border is inevitable after no deal, is not news to anyone, least of all our Government.

For whatever reason the Indo seems to be taking the line that the Withdrawal Agreement is still up for negotiation and that Angela Merkel can change it with the flick of a pen.

I guess when the EU position has remained so consistent and unchanged, bad journalists have to invent drama to make interesting stories.

badtoro · 23-01-2019 10:30AM

Where exactly has the suggestion of a border on the European mainland coast come from? Is the origin known?

I would prefer a hard border on this island than a border between Ireland and the rest of the EU.

Leroy42 · 23-01-2019 10:30AM

That article in the Irish Independent

EU now looks set to ask Ireland to accept concessions

contains no mention of concessions in the actual article.

It merely states that a No deal means hard border.

Edit, - as others have pointed out

EdgeCase · 23-01-2019 10:30AM

All this talk of leaving with the UK is insane.

1. The UK does not see us as a partner of any kind of equal status. We would have no say in anything that might impinge their notion of English sovereignty. So we would be begging for crumbs. We don't even have a guarantee that they would agree to operate a customs union with us. They never did in the past. We had no customs union with the UK or single market until 1993 when the European Single Market reached a stage when the border was dissolved.

2. We have no formal arrangement with the UK beyond a travel area for Irish or UK people which is unaffected by Brexit anyway.

3. We use the Euro. Setting up the IEP again would mean almost certain economic collapse. Particularly given our debt load from 2008 and the likelihood of massive inflation. Even the practicalities of undoing that would make the UK's Brexit seem like a walk in the park.

4. FDI and even domestic companies needing EU access would leave rather rapidly.

5. The economic uncertainty would probably cause a flight of capital and savings to eurozone.

Basically Irexit would be economic suicide. You'd pretty much destroy Ireland's economy, set it back to the 1950s and render us utterly beholden to the whims of the UK government.

Does anyone (other than maybe the DUP) want that?!

My view of it is hold on to what we have and ride this out, while maximizing any upsides to Brexit in terms of grabbing as much fleeing UK trade as we possibly can.

Northern Ireland's situation will likely resolve itself too as political pressure in the north inevitably will be brought to bear should a hard border emerge or should the NI economy go into serious decline.

An Irexit situation could set Irish independence back decades and turn us back into a de facto UK dependency.

Also, if someone's going to drive a car off a cliff, you don't let them lock you into the boot!

lawred2 · 23-01-2019 10:30AM

seamus wrote: »

There's nothing in that about asking Ireland to accept concessions.

The EU stating that a hard border is inevitable after no deal, is not news to anyone, least of all our Government.

For whatever reason the Indo seems to be taking the line that the Withdrawal Agreement is still up for negotiation and that Angela Merkel can change it with the flick of a pen.

I guess when the EU position has remained so consistent and unchanged, bad journalists have to invent drama to make interesting stories.

what's in it for the Indo to pen such crap?

in the business section as well!

LeinsterDub · 23-01-2019 10:37AM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Car crash interview by Michael creed on morning Ireland.still troting out the line that we don't want a hard border.everyone knows that there was going to have to be borders reintroduced once Britain decided to walk.if the EU border is now going to be Calais sure we in the south are going to be in the EU but outside the EU border or am I wrong.agriculture will be f**ked so

What we want and what we have to do are two different things. I want to be in the pub beside a nice warm fire I have to be in work however

Russman · 23-01-2019 10:38AM

IMO only the very blinkered or stupid would put any "blame" on the Irish govt. if border posts have to go up as a result of a crash out. The world and its mother have known that there can't not be a border if there's no backstop or trade deal. No doubt one party would use it for political point scoring but most reasonable people would know its been foisted upon us by the UK's actions (in reality the DUP). In reality there's no choice, its not a will we or won't we put up a border, we'll simply have to.

I think a hard border is by far the lesser of two evils if it comes to choosing between it or staying in the SM & CU. But I'd definitely be flagging our potential use of the veto when the FTA negotiations happen down the line.

prawnsambo · 23-01-2019 10:39AM

lawred2 wrote: »

what's in it for the Indo to pen such crap?

in the business section as well!

Clickbait. It's in their DNA now. I pretty much never read it because (a) it's packed with tabloidesque stories and (b) the 'journalism' has gone full-on clickbaity.

And this is another example of it. If a story can be spun to create a headline that will get everyone clicking, then lots more ad revenue. And that's the sole and only point.

One thing I took from that article was that Varadkar has met with opposition leaders to discuss the situation. And that's a good move. It cuts down on stupid questions being asked in the Dail that will only exacerbate the situation and create more clickbaity headlines.

VinLieger · 23-01-2019 10:39AM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Car crash interview by Michael creed on morning Ireland.still troting out the line that we don't want a hard border.everyone knows that there was going to have to be borders reintroduced once Britain decided to walk.if the EU border is now going to be Calais sure we in the south are going to be in the EU but outside the EU border or am I wrong.agriculture will be f**ked so

The border wont be at calais because that then impinges on our freedom of movement and services

VinLieger · 23-01-2019 10:40AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

One thing I took from that article was that Varadkar has met with opposition leaders to discuss the situation. And that's a good move. It cuts down on stupid questions being asked in teh Dail that will only exacerbate the situation and create more clickbaity headlines.

This exactly, its good to see them all knowing to work together in the best interests of the country and not use this to gain leverage or points over each other, unlike the eejits next door

LeinsterDub · 23-01-2019 10:40AM

Call me Al wrote: »

The easy way out of Britain's mess is for us to accept a time-limited backstop. Then that can gets kicked right down the road. Again. That's where we are being pushed.

That would be a time-limited some thing else . As it fundamentally wouldn't be a backstop if it's time-limited

RobMc59 · 23-01-2019 10:42AM

EdgeCase wrote: »

All this talk of leaving with the UK is insane.

1. The UK does not see us as a partner of any kind of equal status. We would have no say in anything that might impinge their notion of English sovereignty. So we would be begging for crumbs.

2. We have no formal arrangement with the UK beyond a travel area for Irish or UK people which is unaffected by Brexit anyway.

3. We use the Euro. Setting up the IEP again would mean almost certain economic collapse. Particularly given out debt load from 2008 and the likelihood of massive inflation. Even the practicalities of undoing that would make the UK's Brexit seem like a walk in the park.

4. FDI and even domestic companies needing EU access would leave rather rapidly.

5. The economic uncertainty would probably cause a flight of capital and savings to eurozone.

Basically Irexit would be economic suicide. You'd pretty much destroy Ireland's economy, set it back to the 1950s and render us utterly beholden to the whims of the UK government.

Does anyone (other than maybe the DUP) want that?!

My view of it is hold on to what we have and ride this out, while maximizing any upsides to Brexit in terms of grabbing as much fleeing UK trade as we possibly can.

Northern Ireland's situation will likely resolve itself too as political pressure in the north inevitably will be brought to bear should a hard border emerge or should the NI economy go into serious decline.

An Irexit situation could set Irish independence back decades and turn us back into a de facto UK dependency.

Also, if someone's going to drive a car off a cliff, you don't let them lock you into the boot!

This whole view is based on NI collapsing and what can be "grabbed "from the UK-I thought it was the UK who was self serving and selfish?

EdgeCase · 23-01-2019 10:43AM

I think that the way out of this is a referendum in Northern Ireland for a special status that keeps the status quo.

The problem is that the DUP won't allow the people of NI to have a voice in this.

The Tories have allowed themselves to be used by the DUP to undo the Good Friday Agreement and they can't seen see it because they're so blinded by jingoism and ignorance of recent history.

I can assure you that history won't be kind to those who've brought chaos back to these islands.

Bob24 · 23-01-2019 10:44AM

A couple of months ago I was warning here of the danger of fully relying on the EU and the fact that the Irish border issue was just used a way to pressure the UK during deal talks, meaning we would lose EU support on that matter as soon as that pressure point was not required anymore. I remember saying that on the day of a no-deal brexit (it it happens) it wouldn’t be the UK but the Rebublic which would be pushed to reinstate border checks first, upon request of the EU.

This is what the EC has confirmed and our government is still in total denial:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-rejects-idea-hard-border-needed-in-no-deal-scenario-1.3767245

Time for them to get a grasp with reality: the pressure for us to comply with EU rules and start border checks would be unmanageable for ireland whereas it would be fairly easy for the UK to take it easy for a while in terms of WTO-related checks, hence making it clear the the border is not being reinstated by the UK but by the EU and the republic.

Russman · 23-01-2019 10:44AM

RobMc59 wrote: »

This whole view is based on NI collapsing and what can be "grabbed "from the UK-I thought it was the UK who was self serving and selfish?

Every country is self serving and selfish.

Captain Obvious · 23-01-2019 10:47AM

Bob24 wrote: »

A couple of months ago I was warning here of the danger of fully relying on the EU and the fact that the Irish border issue was just a way to pressure the UK meaning we would lose EU support on that matter as soon as that pressure point was not required anymore. I remember saying that on the day of a no-deal brexit it wouldn’t be the UK but the Rebublic which would pushed to reinstate border checks first, upon request of the EU.

This is what the EC has confirmed and our government is still in total denial:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-rejects-idea-hard-border-needed-in-no-deal-scenario-1.3767245

We haven't lost EU support though. The hard border in the case of a no-deal exit was always going to be a reality. The EU have stuck by us in insisting any deal must keep regulatory alignment ion the island of Ireland.

BonnieSituation · 23-01-2019 10:48AM

lawred2 wrote: »

what's in it for the Indo to pen such crap?

in the business section as well!

It's the indo for one. But they've been very eager to peddle this line the last few weeks wrt Ireland backing down.

A horrible dangerous rag.

BonnieSituation · 23-01-2019 10:51AM

Russman wrote: »

IMO only the very blinkered or stupid would put any "blame" on the Irish govt. if border posts have to go up as a result of a crash out. The world and its mother have known that there can't not be a border if there's no backstop or trade deal. No doubt one party would use it for political point scoring but most reasonable people would know its been foisted upon us by the UK's actions (in reality the DUP). In reality there's no choice, its not a will we or won't we put up a border, we'll simply have to.

I think a hard border is by far the lesser of two evils if it comes to choosing between it or staying in the SM & CU. But I'd definitely be flagging our potential use of the veto when the FTA negotiations happen down the line.

But the blinkered and stupid do still exist.

They're are people still angry at FG over VAT on kids shoes in the 82 budget.

Bob24 · 23-01-2019 10:51AM

Captain Obvious wrote: »

We haven't lost EU support though. The hard border in the case of a no-deal exit was always going to be a reality. The EU have stuck by us in insisting any deal must keep regulatory alignment ion the island of Ireland.

Yes for what I have highlighted and this is what the EC is saying. But our governement is saying the exact opposite. Shows the panic building-up; and the false expectation I was referring to that the EU wouldn’t make any move towards reinstating a border non matter what (I absolutely agree with you that the EU forcing the return of a border in a no deal scenario was obvious from the start, but what I am mentioning in terms of losing support Is that the Irish strategy has been based on the fact that it wouldn’t happen and our government is now on a completely opposite line than the EC’s related to this).

EdgeCase · 23-01-2019 10:52AM

RobMc59 wrote: »

This whole view is based on NI collapsing and what can be "grabbed "from the UK-I thought it was the UK who was self serving and selfish?

We have a scenario where the UK has thrown us under a bus and is busily driving and reversing back and forth over the Good Friday Agreement and has put our economic stability in peril.

We owe them nothing. They've caused this by not caring a jot about the implications for anyone else. They didn't seem to even know they had an EU land border.

Of course we grab whatever upsides we can. What else can we do? We've been placed in a very awkward position.

Captain Obvious · 23-01-2019 10:53AM

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes for what I have highlighted and this is what the EC is saying. But our governement is saying the exact opposite. Shows the panic building-up; and the false expectation I was referring to that the EU wouldn’t make any move towards reinstating a border non matter what.

Our government are relying on the UK keeping it's promise. If that is the case they are not fit to govern. NI is part of the UK and the UK is leaving the EU. It's as simple as that. In the absence of a deal we either put a border between us and NI or us and the EU.

FrancieBrady · 23-01-2019 10:56AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

But the blinkered and stupid do still exist.

They're are people still angry at FG over VAT on kids shoes in the 82 budget.

While I think Leo and Simon did well , I would be critical of Leo's love of positive PR and spin.
There should be no-one on this island unaware of the realities of a No Deal crash out.

seamus · 23-01-2019 10:56AM

Bob24 wrote: »

But our governement is saying the exact opposite.

No, they're not?

Our government have been playing it down because unlike Westminster we're intimately aware of the sensitivity about the border issue and that talking incessantly about a hard border will stir up the terrorists, and it will make it look like we're using a hard border as a bargaining chip or a threat.

When it's neither. It's off the table. We cannot accept any agreement which contains a provision for a hard border.

EdgeCase · 23-01-2019 10:57AM

Bob24 wrote: »

How sweet.

Personally, I think it's the end of the golden era of warm Anglo-Irish relations. We've basically got very little in common with a bunch of right wing English nationalists and the DUP.

That's the unfortunate reality of it.

Until there's a major shift in British politics we are really speaking to eachother from parallel universes.

FrancieBrady · 23-01-2019 10:59AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Leo should drop the nuclear bomb

And make it very clear that if UK leaves with no deal
then Ireland will veto any trade deal with UK unless a border poll on reunification is held

Keep repeating that from loudspeakers, it also offers a clear way out of Brexit mess for Ireland and Nothern Ireland, and hell with the rest of them

And a clear way out for the UK.
I think a border poll will be the price the DUP will pay for shafting |May and the Brexit project tbh.

Hurrache · 23-01-2019 11:03AM

seamus wrote: »

Realistically we're only concerned about goods anyway, so you pick the major arteries and set up checkpoints to stop and check all southbound commercial vehicles (we don't care about northbound) while allowing passenger vehicles through unchecked on another lane.

Some will take back roads to avoid it, but if you're driving an artic on your employer's time you're going to just take the M1 and not try navigate some rural roads. Getting a grip on 80%+ of goods movements should be doable inside a week.

Yeah, this is what I've been thinking, only check southbound commercial vehicles on the main arterial routes, don't car about anything else. Any commercial organisation that's going to try circumvent this by taking boreens is most likely up to dodgy things as it is anyway.

prawnsambo wrote: »

You're parrotting a headline in The Indo where the body of the article doesn't back up the headline. As usual.

The Indo has been wishing for such things so they can go all hysterics over Brexit, that piece of trash revels in it.

EdgeCase · 23-01-2019 11:04AM

seamus wrote: »

No, they're not?

Our government have been playing it down because unlike Westminster we're intimately aware of the sensitivity about the border issue and that talking incessantly about a hard border will stir up the terrorists, and it will make it look like we're using a hard border as a bargaining chip or a threat.

When it's neither. It's off the table. We cannot accept any agreement which contains a provision for a hard border.

Not only that but if the Irish Government starts to talk about the practicalities of a hard border it would feed into an acceptance of that as inevitable in London (and Brussels).

There's a lot of strategy in remaining optimistic about no need for one.

The Irish Government is successfully managing to keep some control of the narrative on this which is keeping it on the agenda as something the UK and EU need to resolve.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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