Brexit Discussion Thread VI

FrancieBrady · 21-01-2019 08:15PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

Just because both of you contribute very frequently to these threads (you must have posted hundreds of times?) often submitting apparently learned analyses of contemporary British politics and society - I simply assumed that given your clear enthusiasm for Brexit politics, you’d know Yvette Cooper was a member of the Labour Party

And to satisfy you, yes a tiny hint of British exceptionalism as well.

I generally listen to what people have to say and react. Not great with names tbh.
I don't really bother distinguishing parties as like FG/FF here Con/Lab sound much the same around Brexit issues anyhow - utterly confused and self interested.

J Mysterio · 21-01-2019 08:15PM

I think the UK might see the dropping of registration fees as a concession to the EU, and perhaps one that should be met in kind. EU only want to discuss the future relationship though, the deal being done and redlines remaining as they are.

Folkstonian · 21-01-2019 08:15PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I've been very impressed with her throughout this whole debacle, particularly in the committee's. I like Hilary Benn too for the same reason. While Starmer seems a decent fellow, his closeness to Corbyn has almost tainted him.

I agree that Hillary Benn is clearly an astute, principled man. And a great orator as well, something Corbyn most certainly isn’t. I always think back to his speech in parliament before the Syria vote, a candidate for the most compelling address to the house this century.

Starmer is just another of Corbyn’s lackeys. Unwilling to stand with the likes of Benn and Cooper against a man doing terrible damage to the party

johnnyskeleton · 21-01-2019 08:17PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

In the case of a hard brexit, that is unavoidable unfortunately. Both the UK and the EU would require it, no matter the posturing coming from certain sections of the UK establishment. No border checks means industrial scale smuggling.

Which is why we are looking to try to find ways around a hard brexit.

prawnsambo · 21-01-2019 08:18PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Traceability is a regulatory matter and can be enforced just the same as any other regulation. What you describe in terms of no means of establishing the origins is something that has already arisen in the context of the EU:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_horse_meat_scandal

In 2013 French abatoirs were selling horse meat falsely declared as beef. That happened within the EU.

In relation to products that get processed and are re-exported, that too is something that happens in Europe. A recent example is that bicycle parts were being imported into Europe, assembled and sold as European bikes. So the EU passed regulations in relation to these:

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2018/march/tradoc_156658.exemptions.en.L79-2018.pdf

If there was a problem with a perception of poor food being imported from the UK into Ireland, that too could be resolved by regulation.

Yes. That exact episode was what coloured my thinking when posting. But you can't regulate for a country that's outside the regulatory framework. How is that supposed to work?

briany · 21-01-2019 08:22PM

Just to help me get this straight - May's plan B is to take her current plan and open it to amendments from the HoC?

bilston · 21-01-2019 08:23PM

Cross Channel Freight Trade could drop by up 87% for 3-6 months according to a leaked Border Force document on Sky News tonight in a No Deal Brexit.

That means a lot of empty supermarket shelves, shortage of medicines, fuel price rises, and a lack of parts for manufacturing meaning factories closing and lots and lots of jobs being lost.

That might explain why British Army reservists are getting their call up papers over the next few weeks...

prawnsambo · 21-01-2019 08:23PM

briany wrote: »

Just to help me get this straight - May's plan B is to take her current plan and open it to amendments from the HoC?

Apparently yes. It probably should be referred to henceforth as "Build a Brexit".

J Mysterio · 21-01-2019 08:25PM

briany wrote: »

Just to help me get this straight - May's plan B is to take her current plan and open it to amendments from the HoC?

lol, yes.

It will be some sort of Frankenstein of the deal agreed. Just like Boris said: 'take the deal, get rid of the backstop, and then surgically remove the bad bits.

And then... it will be presented to the EU presumably....

prawnsambo · 21-01-2019 08:28PM

bilston wrote: »

Cross Channel Freight Trade could drop by up 87% for 3-6 months according to a leaked Border Force document on Sky News tonight in a No Deal Brexit.

That means a lot of empty supermarket shelves, shortage of medicines, fuel price rises, and a lack of parts for manufacturing meaning factories closing and lots and lots of jobs being lost.

That might explain why British Army reservists are getting their call up papers over the next few weeks...

Guarding the stockpiles apparently. Hard to imagine that this level of security is needed or that things would get so broken as to require it.

Eric Cartman · 21-01-2019 08:31PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Guarding the stockpiles apparently. Hard to imagine that this level of security is needed or that things would get so broken as to require it.

all those post apocalyptic films might come in handy soon enough. When the kegs and cigarette machines run dry thats when itll kick off.

Call me Al · 21-01-2019 08:32PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

You haven't already explained that to me, but do you think that the scale of it is larger than enforcing a hard border with Northern Ireland? Over 200 border crossings vs. a handful of ports! Even leaving the logistics aside, it's certainly far less politically charged.

Regarding calling into question the integrity of all our exports, what you are fundamentally trying to suggest is that the EU would not accept exports from Ireland if there was an open border with the U.K. But lets look at the reality of the situation. No border is completely impenetrable. Drugs, for example, get into the EU and circulate amongst member states all the time. Likewise with non duty paid cigarettes from outside the E.U. There is no way of absolutely stopping these things, all you can do is impose checks. If the E.U. was satisfied with an arrangement , they can hardly complain about it at the same time.

We aren't dealing with good choices. We are dealing with a catastrophic hard brexit or finding some kind of practical solution. Let's not be like the British and pick battles we cannot win. We want to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland at all costs. This means we will need to find compromises in other areas or else accept the mutually assured destruction of no deal. Which is probably what is going to happen in any event.

We aren't talking about these few old reliable common black-market things coming into our country. We are talking about anything and everything Any thing that the UK will import via a trade deal or unscrupulous import/export business. How do we control or police this? And by virtue of the fact that it's all things it compromises our domestic market, and yes I do think that this alone will be more difficult to enforce than a hard border with the North, before we even consider the consequences for our export markets. I think this would be the end of our compliance with EU standards.

I do agree with you on one point. We aren't dealing with good choices, so why should we start compounding them for ourselves.
I would contend that this is a battle we have to win.

Eta when I talk about domestic market in thus and previous posts I'm talking about the goods and services traded and consumed within the ROI, not what we are exporting.

SimonTemplar · 21-01-2019 08:34PM

How safe is May in her position. I mean she survived a vote of no confidence as did her government. Is it now impossible to force her out if she doesn't resign?

Eric Cartman · 21-01-2019 08:38PM

SimonTemplar wrote: »

How safe is May in her position. I mean she survived a vote of no confidence as did her government. Is it now impossible to force her out if she doesn't resign?

Im convinced may was only saved and is only safe because all the talk is economic at the moment and the markets plus everyone in political spheres is far too afraid to hand this unsteady ship over to Corbyn, it would tank the pound overnight. If Corbyn resigned and a moderate took his place it would start the sharks circling for May.

prawnsambo · 21-01-2019 08:38PM

Eric Cartman wrote: »

all those post apocalyptic films might come in handy soon enough. When the kegs and cigarette machines run dry thats when itll kick off.

I think somebody is already selling Brexit survival packs. Fairly sure I saw it mentioned on Twitter where they had already sold 600 of them at £300 a pop or thereabouts.

Eric Cartman · 21-01-2019 08:39PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think somebody is already selling Brexit survival packs. Fairly sure I saw it mentioned on Twitter where they had already sold 600 of them at £300 a pop or thereabouts.

Id imagine superkings and carling have done a joint venture on a giant warehouse in sheffield just to make sure they keep everyone calm.

SimonTemplar · 21-01-2019 08:42PM

CNN's headline is 'May's Brexit Plan B is Plan A again'. It is a total national embarrassment.

Enzokk · 21-01-2019 08:45PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

I agree that Hillary Benn is clearly an astute, principled man. And a great orator as well, something Corbyn most certainly isn’t. I always think back to his speech in parliament before the Syria vote, a candidate for the most compelling address to the house this century.

Starmer is just another of Corbyn’s lackeys. Unwilling to stand with the likes of Benn and Cooper against a man doing terrible damage to the party

I think you are being harsh on Starmer. I have seen nothing to suggest he is a Corbyn lackey and he is actually in direct opposition to Corbyn on Brexit. You have to remember that Corbyn doesn't actually have enough supporters in the party to fill all of the shadow cabinet positions with yes men so he has to have those with opposing views in the shadow cabinet.

As for standing against Corbyn, he was only elected in the 2015 election and thus would have only been a MP for a few weeks in the first leadership bid. He also backed Andy Burnham for leadership. It was only a year later when Corbyn was challenged again and he would have been an MP for only a little more than a year at that as well. His views on the EU is in stark contradiction of those of Milne and McDonell as well so he is at least in my eyes in no way a Corbyn lackey.

I would think if there was a new leadership challenge he would have more to think about in terms of standing this time as he has had experience for a few years now at least.

SimonTemplar wrote: »

How safe is May in her position. I mean she survived a vote of no confidence as did her government. Is it now impossible to force her out if she doesn't resign?

She is safe because the DUP will back her as they know she is their backdoor to power and the Conservatives will always put party ahead of country.

tuxy · 21-01-2019 08:45PM

SimonTemplar wrote: »

CNN's headline is 'May's Brexit Plan B is Plan A again'. It is a total national embarrassment.

You have to have some shame left to be embarrassed.

Seth Brundle · 21-01-2019 08:46PM

Akrasia wrote: »

There will be a HOC amendment next week that will demand either an extension to A50 or a revocation of A50 if no withdrawal agreement is passed before 29th of March

The UK are in no position to be making demands from the EU!

Mezcita · 21-01-2019 08:47PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I think you are being harsh on Starmer. I have seen nothing to suggest he is a Corbyn lackey and he is actually in direct opposition to Corbyn on Brexit. You have to remember that Corbyn doesn't actually have enough supporters in the party to fill all of the shadow cabinet positions with yes men so he has to have those with opposing views in the shadow cabinet.

As for standing against Corbyn, he was only elected in the 2015 election and thus would have only been a MP for a few weeks in the first leadership bid. He also backed Andy Burnham for leadership. It was only a year later when Corbyn was challenged again and he would have been an MP for only a little more than a year at that as well. His views on the EU is in stark contradiction of those of Milne and McDonell as well so he is at least in my eyes in no way a Corbyn lackey.

I would think if there was a new leadership challenge he would have more to think about in terms of standing this time as he has had experience for a few years now at least.

She is safe because the DUP will back her as they know she is their backdoor to power and the Conservatives will always put party ahead of country.

Curious as to why nobody has tried to push Corbyn out yet though. Surely they must be getting worried with Labour being behind in the polls despite the Tories being so useless.

Call me Al · 21-01-2019 08:47PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

We wouldn't have to be party to any UK trade deals, and we would not have to accept US goods for sale in Ireland. We are talking about where you physically check the goods. And we have made it a political priority that those checks do not take place anywhere near Northern Ireland.

So where do these checks take place? In the Irish sea. Once the items are already on the ROI supermarket shelves? In the Irish sea?

Spanish Eyes · 21-01-2019 08:49PM

I really hope at this stage that the EU negotiators do not give an inch now.

Time is nearly up. Forget about the Polish Foreign Minister, who the feck does he think he is anyway? SNIP. Mod: No more insults please.

10000maniacs · 21-01-2019 08:51PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Guarding the stockpiles apparently. Hard to imagine that this level of security is needed or that things would get so broken as to require it.

If it gets that bad in the UK after a hard Brexit, I don't see it being any different here. Tesco's/ Dunnes/ Boots and Supervalu shelves are in the mainstream stocked from the UK. And Aldi/LIDL stock comes via the UK. The UK are dragging us down with them.

Spanish Eyes · 21-01-2019 08:52PM

Mezcita wrote: »

Curious as to why nobody has tried to push Corbyn out yet though. Surely they must be getting worried with Labour being behind in the poles despite the Tories being so useless.

Have to agree with you there. I cannot understand this.

Maybe Momentum?, But honestly, what is he bringing to the table as Leader of the Opposition?

But to my mind the HoC is a disaster anyway, all guffaws and shouting, but no progress. They all seem to enjoy the theatre and drama.

prawnsambo · 21-01-2019 08:59PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

If it gets that bad in the UK after a hard Brexit, I don't see it being any different here. Tesco's/ Dunnes/ Boots and Supervalu shelves are in the mainstream stocked from the UK. And Aldi/LIDL stock comes via the UK. The UK are dragging us down with them.

Only Tesco and M&S now. The rest of the multiples can and have sourced elsewhere or so I'm told.

johnnyskeleton · 21-01-2019 08:59PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

UK accounts for 9% of our good exports as per last CSO figures (down from 20)
We would have to bear the costs and delays making us less competitive checking 91% exports.

https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/externaltrade/2018/trade_oct2018.pdf

This document? Which shows good exports to the UK at 13.1bn jan-oct 2017 and goods exports to the eu for the same period at 45.2bn? We would not bear the costs as the EU has guaranteed to support Ireland financially if there are brexit related losses. This applies all the more so if we take one for the team.

As regards delays, yes thats a problem. But a large amount of our exports to the rest of the EU, some 42 out of 45bn is industrial products which are not as time sensitive as food. Particularly the 32% of our good exports which are medical and pharmaceutical goods, which are here because of our whacky tax system and the extent that we actually manufacture all of these good is questionable.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-goods-exports-to-britain-fall-4-amid-brexit-uncertainty-1.3758717

e whole idea is nonsense it be like Alaska having to check all their trade to mainland US to keep Canada happy.

It would be more like the US Authorities checking to see if the boats which come down from Alaska contain any Candian goods that need to have tariffs paid on them, which isnt an unreasonable proposition.

But again, when the alternative is a no deal Brexit, the overton window of what is acceptable has to shift

Sir Oxman · 21-01-2019 09:02PM

Hurrache wrote: »

FG agree to nothing, it's the EU they're dealing with.

If Ireland (FG reps at the moment) are put under immense pressure to back down on the backstop "permanent" element i.e. akin to Poland's idea/intervention, then it is possible the EU could can kick to avoid a no deal Brexit.
That would give 7 years for a solution to be put in place.
It is not beyond the realms of possibility.
By all accounts, if she gets the backstop modified that way she can get her deal passed,
I'm just saying out loud my fears regarding pressure on us from the EU27 in this, the final 2 months.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why would there be pressure if No Deal is off the table? Theresa's deal suits us fine as does revoking Art 50

But no deal is not off the table.

Water John · 21-01-2019 09:03PM

Bilston, that 87% of freight blocked is huge only 13-25% getting through for the first 6 months.
This document was at Cabinet level, but the figures were removed from the document shown to the public.
these real facts need to be aired to show what a truly appalling vista a No Deal Brexit is.

prawnsambo · 21-01-2019 09:06PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/externaltrade/2018/trade_oct2018.pdf

This document? Which shows good exports to the UK at 13.1bn jan-oct 2017 and goods exports to the eu for the same period at 45.2bn? We would not bear the costs as the EU has guaranteed to support Ireland financially if there are brexit related losses. This applies all the more so if we take one for the team.

2017 is aeons ago. There have been major changes since then. I'm told that the drops will even be greater this year as contracts are not being renewed in January.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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