Brexit Discussion Thread VI

DOCARCH wrote: »

There is also delusion among Brexiteers that the UK and the EU are equal partners in negotiation, or even that the UK (in some mad/deluded way) have the upper hand!

Sammy Wilson yesterday being their primary spokesman.

DOCARCH wrote: »

There is also delusion among Brexiteers that the UK and the EU are equal partners in negotiation, or even that the UK (in some mad/deluded way) have the upper hand!

I think most clearly illustrated yesterday by the commentary from a number of MPs that, "Parliament has had their say, now the EU needs to come up with something else".

They still don't get that the EU is not subservient to the UK parliament and that the UK is not calling the shots here.

They clearly believe that the EU "will not allow" a no-deal Brexit to happen. This is a guy in a mini playing chicken with a train.

Risteard81 wrote: »

Deleted post.

So-called? Good stuff. Pretty sure it's just called the EU.


Enemy of Ireland? Would you care to elaborate on this point?

Enemy of the world? Again, could you elaborate for me please.

If the UK request an extension, I know we won't object. Who is most likely to emerge from left field to object in the EU, if anyone?

Yes, some of the soundings yesterday were baffling.

"there is a majority in the HoC for leaving with a deal" - not on that result

"Parliament wont leave without a deal"- but what deal and who is going to agree to it?

"its time for the German car manufacturers to step and tell Angela Merkel to sort this out" - pure comic gold!

Flipped around several TV channels for the different views - when you put the different sides ideas together its clear they really are in a mess, and there is no where for reason or direction to come from.

I feel quite ashamed of my government.

Donald Trump wrote: »

Listened to an interview with JRM about importing beef grown with hormones. Which are banned under EU standards but used in Australia. Said he was fine with it and that people could choose for themselves. Complained about EU rules and standards increasing prices for people

That is very much a US way of thinking. Give people 15 choices from unhealthy to healthy and let the people decide what they want. If they want to eat food that makes them obese it is their choice. This type of thinking misses a million other factors like the cost of items and what people can afford to buy, but it seems to placate those who advocate for this system.

Peregrinus wrote: »

This is complete nonsense. I don't know what website you're getting this tripe from, prinzeugen, but you had better stop reading it, because it is lying to you, and you are being made a fool of. I'm guessing you won't like that.

Good post, I have cut it down to just this point. Seems that the poster has just regurgitated the same story that was printed in The Sun and The Daily Mail as well. That would explain a lot of his views and how they are so off base if that is where he is getting his facts from.

I am not opening any links from The Sun but if you google "kids costumes flammable eu" then on the first page is two articles from the The Sun, one from 2017 and one last year, and one from The Daily Mail as well.

Google Search, kids costumes flammable eu

Peregrinus wrote: »

I'm not sure how much of a revelation this is, though. The WA has been cruising to a massive defeat in this vote for months, now. If May were willing to countenance a more palatable alternative, it was very much in her interests to do that before being publicly humiliated, not afterwards. So, if she didn't do it before the vote, there was never much reason for optimism that she would do it after the vote.

What we know about May is that, if she were a superhero, her superpower would be clinging to things with the tenacity of a fossilised limpet. There's general agreeement that this WA is pretty much the only one possible give, (a) the EU's strategic advantage in negotiations, (b) the EU's priorities, and (c) May's red lines. Only one of these is within May's control but, happily for her, the EU has long made it clear that if the red lines shift, all sorts of things become possible in the WA that are currently impossible. Unhappily for May shifting the red lines requires her to let go of the position she has adopted, and that's the precise opposite of what she is good at doing.

So it seems to me the options are:

1. May shifts her red lines, which is difficult and scary for her personally, and also not without political risk (though, N.B., her own party can't challenge her leadership before next December).

2. May resigns, and allows in another leader who will shift the red lines. This also involves May letting go, in this case of her office rathe than her political position, but that's equally difficult for her. Shifted red lines allows the WA to be negotiated but, NB, only to make it softer, not harder.

3. No-deal Brexit.

4. No Brexit.

As I've said before, options like "general election" or "second referendum" are just different mechanisms for choosing between the same basic options. They don't open up new possibilities that aren't in this list.

I think it is becoming clear that the only way she was going to get a deal through parliament, especially after her disastrous GE in 2017, was to work with the other parties to get a cross party consensus and deal that can get through parliament. This would have meant cutting off the right of her party and the extreme left of the Labour party but at least she would have done what she set out by enacting Brexit.

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1085453695205212160

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't understand why people are a) mad at Corbyn and b) wondering what he is going to do.


He is implementing Labour policy as set out at Conference in September.


He will table a motion of No Confidence, and when he loses, call for a new referendum.

It does seem that the strategy, at least last night, for Labour was to call numerous no-confidence votes in the government. They can call as many as they like but that seems clearly like Corbyn is subverting the voice of those he said he would craft Labour policy. He is almost as bad as May in that he will say and do what he wants. UK politics are devoid of strong leaders right at the point where we need them to be strong.

Jeremy Corbyn offers little hope for people's vote campaigners

Jeremy Corbyn has offered no encouragement to supporters of a second EU referendum after he called for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May’s government and an immediate general election.

The Labour leader did not refer to a second referendum in his two Brexit speeches on Tuesday evening, and risked antagonising the party’s pro-remain wing, some of whom want him to back another poll by the end of the week.

In his first, longer speech at the end of the full Brexit debate, Corbyn said: “Labour believes that a general election would be the best outcome for the country if this deal is rejected tonight.”

James O'Brien has said that Brexit has revealed that the emperor has no clothes when it comes to the likes of Farage, Johnson and JRM in that what they have promised the people is so obviously not true. For Labour voters that is also becoming true of Corbyn.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the UK request an extension, I know we won't object. Who is most likely to emerge from left field to object in the EU, if anyone?

I don't think it's "left field" so much as a consideration of overall impact. An extension under any circumstances is just an extension of uncertainty. It's not good for markets anywhere.

It suits us because the more time we have to prepare, the better. And the more opportunity we have to get the UK to come to its senses, the better.

It also follows that it suits France, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium & Germany a lot too to have more time to prepare.

Outside of that though, countries have less and less involvement with the UK, and they will want more robust debate on it than a simple "more time to prepare" mantra. They don't have the tinted glasses on, for them it's a matter of weighing up the cost of uncertainty versus the value of further preparation.

My sense is that despite the tough timeline, the EU as a whole is very mature in its preparation for this outcome, and delaying further sees a diminishing return.

We also have EU elections on 23rd May. If an extension was allowed past that date, the UK would be obliged to take part, and the toxin in the UK could spread to the EU parliament. Or at the very least the poll in the UK would be so farcical that it could undermine the democratic process.

I think in the event that an extension is permitted, it will be for a short period of time; up to the end of April maybe. Just enough time for a general election to happen and for the UK to pick a path and go with it.

murphaph wrote: »

I agree he's useless but he's not the only reason Labour have a big problem....many of their heartlands voted for something that will make their deprived areas even worse and Labour don't know how to get that message across to them without alienating voters.

Almost the entire political system in the UK is broken at present. The only remotely functioning part seems to be Holyrood.

The question is whether those Labour areas that voted to Leave would abandon Labour and vote Conservative. It is up to Labour MPs in those areas to shine the light on why those people that voted leave are struggling. It is not the EU and if their MP votes against the deal and votes to withdraw article 50 then they have to show them why they did it and get the message across that Labour will ensure that immigration will have the rules enforced that the EU has in place and also that they will ensure that there is investment in the areas where people are concerned right now.

ednwireland wrote: »

the channel 4 political correspondent called it right this morning on RTE.

the tory brexiteers think they can stop paying into europe, keep all the trade with the eu and go off an negaotiate different deals if they want, and the EU cant have that as what would be the point of the EU everyone would do that if the UK is allowed to do that.

this should, from the start been a cross party committee agreeing some guidelines before triggering article 50.

Maybe an info session on what the EU is should have been done a few years ago for all MPs?

At this point I would not mind them passing a pie in the sky deal. They won't get it but it would at least show that there is something they could agree on.

Now it looks like they told May they hate everything she has done in this and will come in later today and tell her they still think she is the right person for the job. Madness!

seamus wrote: »

We also have EU elections on 23rd May. If an extension was allowed past that date, the UK would be obliged to take part, and the toxin in the UK could spread to the EU parliament. Or at the very least the poll in the UK would be so farcical that it could undermine the democratic process.

I think in the event that an extension is permitted, it will be for a short period of time; up to the end of April maybe. Just enough time for a general election to happen and for the UK to pick a path and go with it.

This. An extension past the European elections has always seemed a non-runner to me. Apart from the very valid points you make, there'd be the ludicrous situation of UK MEPs sitting in parliament with their country outside the EU. I assume there's some kind of mechanism to remove them, but even the thought of that possibility gives me shudders.

doc_17 wrote: »

I know Tories will vote for her tomorrow. But she’s finished. That madness can’t carry on.

With British politics the way it is, it can, and will.

The DUP and ERG publicly don't agree with May and openly criticise her, there's obviously a bunch of back benchers who feel the same.

But yet they're willing to put party before country in order to keep Labour out of government and have said they'll support her in a no confidence vote before the meaningful vote even happened What a sad bunch they are.

kuro68k wrote: »

I feel quite ashamed of my government.

i wouldnt overly worry about it, most governments are shameful at this stage