Is Fine Gael in climate change denial

dense · 09-01-2019 9:45pm

blanch152 wrote: »

People like me are in favour of increasing carbon taxes, but reducing taxes on income in response, so that those who irresponsibly damage the environment are punished. The total amount of taxes should not increase.

The same should happen with expenditure. Green expenditure initiatives should replace other wasted expenditure.

But where will the money for the €0.6bn in annual EU fines come from then, the health budget or the housing budget, or maybe the water infrastructure budget?

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/ireland-faces-annual-eu-energy-fines-of-600m-36857141.html

blanch152 · 09-01-2019 9:47pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Sadly this is an issue where the plastic straw brigade seems to be in charge. A nuclear power station alone would let us hit our 2020 targets at this point. Im sure with an oversized one we could both support the infrastructure for electric cars and make electricity cheaper to industry which would offset their use of fossil fuels and thus lower carbon emissions.

It's much cheaper in many businesses to run almost any part of any machine or process that requires heat from natural gas and oil. Same with even forklifts in warehouses, often LPG is cheaper.

How could a nuclear power station let us hit our 2020 targets at this point?

It would be at least 15 years before it could get through planning, protests, court challenges and become operational. There is no point relying on something completely unrealistic as a proposal to solve climate change.

dense · 09-01-2019 9:48pm

road_high wrote: »

Would be ideal if that would happen- but it won’t, certainly not with the govts we vote in. It’s all short term stuff, I’ve no trust whatsoever they’d spent a carbon tax in any other way other than waste it on welfare and PS salaries.

That is the fear, but I thought our budgets have external EU oversight to ensure things like that don't happen. Ah, I must be thinking fondly of the Troika years!

blanch152 · 09-01-2019 9:49pm

dense wrote: »

But where will the money for the €0.6bn in annual EU fines come from then, the health budget or the housing budget, or maybe the water infrastructure budget?

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/ireland-faces-annual-eu-energy-fines-of-600m-36857141.html

That has to be found anyway. Separate issue.

road_high · 09-01-2019 9:59pm

dense wrote: »

That is the fear, but I thought our budgets have external EU oversight to ensure things like that don't happen. Ah, I must be thinking fondly of the Troika years!

No it seems back to the reckless years that would almost make Bertie blush...without the tax cuts for workers though

dense · 09-01-2019 9:59pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Per capita, we are the third highest contributers in Europe. That means the average Irish person is contributing more than their fair share to the problem, and should contribute more than their fair share to the solution.

You've said that already, but will you articulate further about what you mean by Ireland's fair share of the ~0.9°c of global warming problem, after all it is a concept you have introduced to the conversation?

(I have heard similar constructs from the Citizens Assembly on Climate Change and when I contacted them for information about what element of global warming they say has been caused by Ireland, they said they don't have that information.)

It would be great if you have that information.

oscarBravo · 09-01-2019 10:19pm

Dense, would you mind addressing this point:

oscarBravo wrote: »

Are you trying to make an argument that Ireland's emissions are not causing global warming?

Because that's an extraordinary position to stake out, and it's only reasonable to expect you to justify it first.

edit: Actually, I just saw your signature. Never mind, I can see that there's no basis for a rational discussion here.

marno21 · 09-01-2019 10:24pm

dense wrote: »

But where will the money for the €0.6bn in annual EU fines come from then, the health budget or the housing budget, or maybe the water infrastructure budget?

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/ireland-faces-annual-eu-energy-fines-of-600m-36857141.html

Probably something hair brained like cancelling the Metrolink project or some similar project which will help us to achieve our targets.

The scope for cutting capital budgets as was done 10 years ago is not there this time around.

Macha · 09-01-2019 10:29pm

blanch152 wrote: »

How could a nuclear power station let us hit our 2020 targets at this point?

It would be at least 15 years before it could get through planning, protests, court challenges and become operational. There is no point relying on something completely unrealistic as a proposal to solve climate change.

And nuclear is horrifically expensive. The UK's planned nuclear plant Hinkley Point C will be the most expensive power plant in the world - g it ever gets built.

blanch152 · 09-01-2019 10:53pm

road_high wrote: »

Would be ideal if that would happen- but it won’t, certainly not with the govts we vote in. It’s all short term stuff, I’ve no trust whatsoever they’d spend a carbon tax in any other way other than waste it on welfare and PS salaries.
As it is, how are excises on fuel spent? I’d hazard a good guess and say day to day spending. Carbon tax be the exact same. They’re just not capable of innovative thinking

The two don't necessarily have to balance. We could replace €4 bn of income taxes with carbon taxes but only replace €500m of wasted expenditure with green expenditure.

It doesn't matter if carbon taxes are spent on social welfare, it matters that it replaces income tax.

blanch152 · 09-01-2019 10:56pm

dense wrote: »

You've said that already, but will you articulate further about what you mean by Ireland's fair share of the ~0.9°c of global warming problem, after all it is a concept you have introduced to the conversation?

(I have heard similar constructs from the Citizens Assembly on Climate Change and when I contacted them for information about what element of global warming they say has been caused by Ireland, they said they don't have that information.)

It would be great if you have that information.

That is a nonsense argument that ignores the mathematical realities of proportional blame.

dense · 10-01-2019 12:30am

blanch152 wrote: »

That is a nonsense argument that ignores the mathematical realities of proportional blame.

Inviting someone to demonstrate evidence to back up baseless assertions about Ireland's allegedly disproportionate share of the global contribution to the 0.9°C observed warming since 1750 is an invitation, not an "argument".
It could be seen as a welcome opportunity to explain why it is a claim that should be taken seriously.

I had hoped that something like the "mathematical realities of proportianal blame" would have been applied to back up those assertions by anyone making them, but it's fine if nobody wants to. Let us leave it at that.

dense · 10-01-2019 12:44am

oscarBravo wrote: »

edit: Actually, I just saw your signature. Never mind, I can see that there's no basis for a rational discussion here.

My signature just consists of selected quotes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?
I think they help to contextualise matters for those who believe the media clickbait that the earth is about to self ignite.

Cockford Ollie · 10-01-2019 12:50am

Any party who ignores "man made climate change" fake news gets my vote.

blanch152 · 10-01-2019 12:55am

dense wrote: »

Inviting someone to demonstrate evidence to back up baseless assertions about Ireland's allegedly disproportionate share of the global contribution to the 0.9°C observed warming since 1750 is an invitation, not an "argument".
It could be seen as a welcome opportunity to explain why it is a claim that should be taken seriously.

I had hoped that something like the "mathematical realities of proportianal blame" would have been applied to back up those assertions by anyone making them, but it's fine if nobody wants to. Let us leave it at that.

It is really simple. If Irish people have the third highest per capita carbon emissions in Europe, then we are disproportionately contributing to global warming relative to our population. Simple mathematics.

A further point. Ireland's best contribution to international diplomacy has been through setting examples in relation to disarmament and human rights. We have an opportunity now to set the same example in relation to climate change and it should be taken. The difference is that our stances on disarmament and human rights cost nothing for the average Irish person. Taking a stand on climate change will be tough, but are we just about words or actions?

blanch152 · 10-01-2019 12:59am

dense wrote: »

My signature just consists of selected quotes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?
I think they help to contextualise matters for those who believe the media clickbait that the earth is about to self ignite.

I have never seen a media article suggesting the earth is about to self ignite. There might be something in some fringe media, but nothing serious.

The real issue is that we are on a path to something that will happen over the coming decades. We can adopt the three monkeys approach and leave the problem to our children and grandchildren, but that is a cowardly approach.

dense · 10-01-2019 1:34am

blanch152 wrote: »

It is really simple. If Irish people have the third highest per capita carbon emissions in Europe, then we are disproportionately contributing to global warming relative to our population. Simple mathematics.

It's the third time you've made the claim that Ireland has caused disproportionate global warming.

Without the maths to support it.
What exact percentage of global warming are you claiming that Ireland has caused and how does it compare to countries you believe have warmed the planet proportionally to their population?

Forgive me for continuing to ask but it is something I ask people who continually mention Ireland's role in global warming.

We can drop it if you don't know.

blanch152 wrote: »

A further point. Ireland's best contribution to international diplomacy has been through setting examples in relation to disarmament and human rights. We have an opportunity now to set the same example in relation to climate change and it should be taken. The difference is that our stances on disarmament and human rights cost nothing for the average Irish person. Taking a stand on climate change will be tough, but are we just about words or actions?

I'm not sure. I dont think we should go all Skibereen Eagle.
I think we're mainly just words as opposed to actions, don't you?
We do like to spout about how important we feel we are on the world stage having just pulled our trousers up. No one takes us terribly seriously on the international stage, apart from the bit of craic on Paddy's Day. They tend to pat us on the head and we're quite happy enough not to upset the Apple cart.

We're hardly a major world influencer. Nor should we foolishly put our energies into attempting to become one.

The IPCC advises us that keeping temperatures from rising more than 1.5°C above an unknown global pre-industrial temperature figure will involve communities having to deal with the impacts of unprecedented changes that will have to be made in every aspect of society.

I'm not at all that sure a democratic mandate can be found for that sort of national response that is said to be required on a global scale in the timescale that is said to be required, twelve years.

It may not just be Ireland that is all talk.
France looks like it's all talk on carbon tax too come to think of it.

The US, and India, China and Russia are not singing off the same hymn sheet either.

But that's no reason to prevent Ireland from rapidly transitioning off of fossil fuels if that is what the Irish people desire.

Macha · 10-01-2019 9:28am

Ireland does produce a disproportinate amount of greenhouse gas emissions. We're also doing terribly in terms of policies, lobbying etc. One source on this is the Climate Change Performance Index: https://germanwatch.org/en/16073 There are plenty of other sources I can provide.

Every single country can argue it's small and insignificant but, for example, the Climate Vulnerables Forum and the Marshall Islands (population 53,000) n particular has been punching above its weight by putting huge efforts into highlighting how their entire country will cease to exist under certain temperature increase scenarios.

Within the global context, the EU is the one that is going to lead on climate diplomacy. That's just the reality of how things stand at the moment. The EU is also one of the wealthiest parts of the world and has the resources to invest in the transition - and, to be honest, benefit from being a first-mover. And within the EU, Ireland can play a positive or a negative role. Right now, it's playing a very negative role. That matters.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 10-01-2019 9:35am

Carbon taxes are regressive. I suggest that the electricity bill has a cheaper rate for non carbon sources electricity. More subsidies for electric vehicles, more grants for home insulation and cheaper lighting etc.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 10-01-2019 10:02am

blanch152 wrote: »

The two don't necessarily have to balance. We could replace €4 bn of income taxes with carbon taxes but only replace €500m of wasted expenditure with green expenditure.

It doesn't matter if carbon taxes are spent on social welfare, it matters that it replaces income tax.

?

The idea of carbon taxes is to change behaviour, which means they have to be fairly punitive, but such taxes therefore cannot replace income tax as the effects of the punitive tax would, if they changed behaviour, negate the revenue.

LeinsterDub · 10-01-2019 10:02am

Cockford Ollie wrote: »

Any party who ignores "man made climate change" fake news gets my vote.

Because you know better than basically every climate change scientist in the world?

Franz Von Peppercorn · 10-01-2019 10:04am

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Because you know better than basically every climate change scientist in the world?

There’s no arguing with these guys, so best not to. The real debate is on how we reduce carbon emissions in Ireland. Not anybody’s ideas on the scientific facts they opppose.

Macha · 10-01-2019 10:15am

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

There’s no arguing with these guys, so best not to. The real debate is on how we reduce carbon emissions in Ireland. Not anybody’s ideas on the scientific facts they opppose.

One key message in the recent IPCC report is how bloody hard we're all going to have to work and how fast to keep global temperature rise to 1.5C.

As such, this debate sometimes reminds me of us all being on a sinking ship, arguing about who should be bailing the hardest. We ALL need to be bailing as fast as we can.

And if anyone's in doubt about what happens if we fail, you should check out this interactive info graphic con Carbon Brief based on the same IPCC report: https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/

oscarBravo · 10-01-2019 11:08am

dense wrote: »

My signature just consists of selected quotes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?

You mis-spelled "selective". Also:

The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose.
An evil soul producing holy witness
Is like a villain with a smiling cheek,
A goodly apple rotten at the heart.
O, what a goodly outside falsehood hath!

I think they help to contextualise matters for those who believe the media clickbait that the earth is about to self ignite.

Do you subscribe to everything the IPCC publishes, or only the out-of-context selective quotes you use to drive your anti-science agenda?

blanch152 · 10-01-2019 11:28am

dense wrote: »

It's the third time you've made the claim that Ireland has caused disproportionate global warming.

Without the maths to support it.
What exact percentage of global warming are you claiming that Ireland has caused and how does it compare to countries you believe have warmed the planet proportionally to their population?

Forgive me for continuing to ask but it is something I ask people who continually mention Ireland's role in global warming.

We can drop it if you don't know.

It has been explained to you several times now.

You are trying to make out that I am saying that Ireland has been a major contributor to global warming. That is not my point.

My point is that Irish people have made a disproportionate contribution to global warming. That label doesn't need to mean that there is a major contribution to global warming as it can apply as far down as an individual. For example, I could argue that Denis O'Brien, through his frequent air travel, has been a disproportionate contributer to global warming, and I would be factually correct.

So my statement that the Irish people and Ireland have disproportionately contributed to global warming is a fact that is backed up by the statistic that we are the third highest per capita in relation to CO2 emissions. There is no point in trying to make that statement mean something else

dense wrote: »

I'm not sure. I dont think we should go all Skibereen Eagle.
I think we're mainly just words as opposed to actions, don't you?
We do like to spout about how important we feel we are on the world stage having just pulled our trousers up. No one takes us terribly seriously on the international stage, apart from the bit of craic on Paddy's Day. They tend to pat us on the head and we're quite happy enough not to upset the Apple cart.

We're hardly a major world influencer. Nor should we foolishly put our energies into attempting to become one.

The IPCC advises us that keeping temperatures from rising more than 1.5°C above an unknown global pre-industrial temperature figure will involve communities having to deal with the impacts of unprecedented changes that will have to be made in every aspect of society.

I'm not at all that sure a democratic mandate can be found for that sort of national response that is said to be required on a global scale in the timescale that is said to be required, twelve years.

It may not just be Ireland that is all talk.
France looks like it's all talk on carbon tax too come to think of it.

The US, and India, China and Russia are not singing off the same hymn sheet either.

But that's no reason to prevent Ireland from rapidly transitioning off of fossil fuels if that is what the Irish people desire.

You are underestimating our influence. Our role in various disarmament initiatives from nuclear to landmines is well documented and well-recognised.

https://www.ucc.ie/en/media/academic/schoolofhistory/newsstories/documents/Disarmament_DFAT_PRIMER.pdf

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/irish-diplomats-share-international-prize-for-negotiating-nuclear-weapons-treaty-822020.html

http://archives.the-monitor.org/index.php/publications/display?url=lm/2000/ireland.html

It has been a niche role, and we have had similar, though less substantive effects in the area of human rights. Suggesting that we follow these successes with a niche effort in the area of climate change is not fanciful. It is a bigger challenge and will require more effort from ordinary Irish people, but it is something worth putting on the table.

blanch152 · 10-01-2019 11:30am

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

?

The idea of carbon taxes is to change behaviour, which means they have to be fairly punitive, but such taxes therefore cannot replace income tax as the effects of the punitive tax would, if they changed behaviour, negate the revenue.

That is the long-term objective of carbon taxes - eliminate CO2 emissions.

However, carbon taxes will raise revenue in the short and medium term. That revenue needs to be redirected. In my opinion, it should be used to reduce income taxes, so that the ordinary taxpayer sees a benefit from it. Otherwise the danger is it will be used to increase social welfare benefits unsustainably.

dense · 10-01-2019 11:34am

Macha wrote: »

Ireland does produce a disproportinate amount of greenhouse gas emissions. We're also doing terribly in terms of policies, lobbying etc. One source on this is the Climate Change Performance Index: https://germanwatch.org/en/16073 There are plenty of other sources I can provide.

Every single country can argue it's small and insignificant but, for example, the Climate Vulnerables Forum and the Marshall Islands (population 53,000) n particular has been punching above its weight by putting huge efforts into highlighting how their entire country will cease to exist under certain temperature increase scenarios.

Within the global context, the EU is the one that is going to lead on climate diplomacy. That's just the reality of how things stand at the moment. The EU is also one of the wealthiest parts of the world and has the resources to invest in the transition - and, to be honest, benefit from being a first-mover. And within the EU, Ireland can play a positive or a negative role. Right now, it's playing a very negative role. That matters.

Stop.

Stop putting these backward corrupt cesspits on pedastals just because they have a begging bowl out looking for money on the back of highly dubious claims about being imminently washed away due to climate change.

According to the Marshall Islands 2015 Human Rights Report, the "most significant human rights problems included prison conditions, chronic government corruption, and chronic domestic violence" and other human rights problems included "child abuse, sex trafficking, and lack of legal provisions protecting workers' ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_the_Marshall_Islands

Contrary to popular opinion and islander's fake claims, research shows that island land areas are increasing globally, even with all that melting ice.

https://m.phys.org/news/2018-02-pacific-nation-bigger.html

"Coastal areas were also analysed, and to the scientists surprise, coastlines had gained more land - 33,700 sq km (13,000 sq miles) - than they had been lost to water (20,100 sq km or 7,800 sq miles).

"We expected that the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise, but the most surprising thing is that the coasts are growing all over the world," said Dr Baart."

"We're were able to create more land than sea level rise was taking."

Climate change is now apparently creating more land than sea level rise is taking.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37187100

Which is all very inconvenient for those claiming islands are vanishing due to climate change.

ancapailldorcha · 10-01-2019 12:05pm

dense wrote: »

Which is all very inconvenient for the doomsday climate chuggers.

This language is not acceptable here. No more please.

dense · 10-01-2019 12:15pm

blanch152 wrote: »

You are trying to make out that I am saying that Ireland has been a major contributor to global warming. That is not my point.

My point is that Irish people have made a disproportionate contribution to global warming.

So my statement that the Irish people and Ireland have disproportionately contributed to global warming is a fact that is backed up by the statistic that we are the third highest per capita in relation to CO2 emissions.

You probably meant to say third highest in the EU in your last line there?
Or maybe you meant the reader would understand it to mean in the world?

Regardless of that error, you are now effectively pleading to have your assertion taken as fact.
You have now made your claim four times.

But simple repetition does not make it any more effective.

What is the contribution that you are claiming Irish people have caused?
You cannot simply invent a construct such as claiming that "Ireland has disproportionately contributed to global warming" of 0.9°C if you are unable to provide any evidence to demonstrate the portion of global warming that you are claiming we have disproportionately caused.

Do you accept that you're not making much of an effort to demonstrate the effect of what you're claiming?

Are you positive that this is not just something that you have heard or came across somwhere and liked the sound of, without applying any critical analysis to it?

If that is the case, just put it down to experience; many intelligent people swallow sloganeering which has been carefully crafted by climate activists.

I think we should just move on if you cant or wont do any more than repeat what you've said without being able to demonstrate your claims of the contribution (disproportionate or other) you say Irish people have had on global warming and I really don't want to be accused of being unfair to you.

dense · 10-01-2019 12:16pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This language is not acceptable here. No more please.

I apologise I will edit that line.

Is Fine Gael in climate change denial

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