Brexit Discussion Thread VI

lawred2 · 19-12-2018 12:03AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

O'Neill did himself no favours whatsoever. Came across as a lightweight one trick pony.

Came across as one or simply is one

Harry Palmr · 19-12-2018 12:04AM

So then post bad Brexit, if it happens the M20 in Kent will be a lorry park/shanty town and Ireland will need airlifts into the main airports.

CelticRambler · 19-12-2018 12:05AM

downcow wrote: »

a so-called expert was being asked about what would happen immediately in a no deal Brexit. He was painting a fairly glum picture but he did say when asked about farming that prices of farm produce would jump due to no access to Eu stuff.

There will be numerous factors coming into play post-Brexit, starting with a shortage of manual labour to harvest British-grown crops such as salads and fruit. This will push up prices for those items (less product available and higher wages paid to those willing to do the work)

Additionally, imported produce (half of the UK's consumption) will have to be paid for in Euros, which will cost more because of Sterling's loss of value, and again, the price on the shelf will rise accordingly.

Those are short-term effects, which will almost certainly lead to a lot of public disenchantment ("we were told food prices would be cheaper!") prompting the government to do quick and dirty deals to get cheaper food from non EU countries.

This is where your border-what-border-we're-not-putting-up-a-border nonsense comes into play: if Prime Minster Johnson does not block Irish cows from crossing the border between Monaghan and Fermanagh, every other country in the world can send their cows, alive or dead, to the UK - all of the UK - without paying any tarifs. Them's the WTO rules. Ditto for pigs, chickens, sheep, horsemeat, whatever ... That's when the UK producers go out of business, and the EU brands all UK-origin food as unfit for European consumption.

prawnsambo · 19-12-2018 12:06AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

O'Neill did himself no favours whatsoever. Came across as a lightweight one trick pony.

The lightweight one trick ponies have been in touch and they want to know the name of your lawyer.

Shelga · 19-12-2018 12:19AM

So, do people think No Deal is the most likely prospect at this time?

Truly terrifying stuff.

prawnsambo · 19-12-2018 12:24AM

Shelga wrote: »

So, do people think No Deal is the most likely prospect at this time?

Truly terrifying stuff.

I'm inclined to think it's the last sting of the dying wasp. May is trying to frighten MPs into voting for her deal. Like all her cunning plans it will suffer from the law of unintended consequences and she'll end up resigning. I wish she'd cut out all the angst and grief and just do it now.

tuxy · 19-12-2018 12:24AM

Shelga wrote: »

So, do people think No Deal is the most likely prospect at this time?

I think May's cabinet are bluffing to try to get more support for her deal.
Still does not ease my concerns of no deal due to incompetence though.

LeinsterDub · 19-12-2018 12:27AM

tuxy wrote: »

I think May's cabinet are bluffing to try to get more support for her deal.
Still does not ease my concerns of no deal due to incompetence though.

Meanwhile other Tories are threatening to resign the whip if no deal becomes the official line.

tuxy · 19-12-2018 12:36AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Meanwhile other Tories are threatening to resign the whip if no deal becomes the official line.

I can't see it becoming the official line with May as PM. Her deal no matter how small the chances of getting it through parliament will remain the official line.
Evan after it gets voted down in a few weeks I can see her turning around and saying once more that she will get more reassurances on the backstop and another vote will be held again in February.

flatty · 19-12-2018 12:36AM

May is prepared to hold the entire country to ransom over this, and is doing so, in a final desperate attempt to stamp her seal on brexit. The EU must not give any leeway now, none. She is desperate to avoid a second referendum in the knowledge that she would likely lose it, in an absolute perversion of democracy. The govt and the bbc are in all out spin, with the total tenor of all BBC coverage entirely based upon mays deal or disaster, and not an iota given to a further vote. Senior bbc management are all looking for the holes they will genuflect into no doubt.
It is utterly appalling.
Ireland and the EU must not waver or blink, for the good of all.

flatty · 19-12-2018 12:37AM

tuxy wrote: »

I can't see it becoming the official line with May as PM. Her deal no matter how small the chances of getting it through parliament will remain the official line.
Evan after it gets voted down in a few weeks I can see her turning around and saying once more that she will get more reassurances on the backstop and another vote will be held again in February.

But a second vote is the antithesis of democracy she believes. She has said this many times.

tuxy · 19-12-2018 12:43AM

flatty wrote: »

But a second vote is the antithesis of democracy she believes. She has said this many times.

She can find some way to justify it.
Who can stop her unless they find a way to remove her from the position as PM

Kermit.de.frog · 19-12-2018 12:48AM

Shelga wrote: »

So, do people think No Deal is the most likely prospect at this time?

Truly terrifying stuff.

No. She is trying to frighten MPs who, despite the bluster now, will be duly frightened as the clock ticks down and the consequences for their constituents of no deal come firmly in to view in the new year.

We should be backing her to scare to bejaysus out of Britain in the coming weeks :pac:

Imreoir2 · 19-12-2018 12:50AM

downcow wrote: »

I guess you don’t really believe that. The troubles ended because the ira were so incredibly infiltrated. Stakeknife, Maginnis (your presidential candidate), etc, etc. They were defeated and the the loyalists turned up the volume with their disgraceful sectarian campaign which more than matched the ira sectarian campaign. Support in both communities deminished. I won’t happen again. Not possible.

I don't want to derail the thread, it's obvious enough that this is way off topic, but it should be clear to anyone that had the IRA been defeated as you claim, then there would be no GFA, there would be no need for one. I have never known any government to do a deal with a defeated paramilitary enemy.

Leroy42 · 19-12-2018 12:51AM

And she is going to spend an additional £2bn as part of the ride.

Luckily that money isn't needed elsewhere

LeinsterDub · 19-12-2018 12:59AM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

So then post bad Brexit, if it happens the M20 in Kent will be a lorry park/shanty town and Ireland will need airlifts into the main airports.

Why would we need airlifts?

Hurrache · 19-12-2018 01:15AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

And she is going to spend an additional £2bn as part of the ride.

Apparently a short bumpy ride at that
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1075102861644718081?s=19

Enzokk · 19-12-2018 01:17AM

Shelga wrote: »

So, do people think No Deal is the most likely prospect at this time?

Truly terrifying stuff.

I think the warnings that we will sleepwalk into no deal is becoming more likely. Once the preparations start it may be too late to stop it. If you bluff with no deal and the other side does not budge we will get it. We know the EU cannot budge, the question is will the UK.

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm inclined to think it's the last sting of the dying wasp. May is trying to frighten MPs into voting for her deal. Like all her cunning plans it will suffer from the law of unintended consequences and she'll end up resigning. I wish she'd cut out all the angst and grief and just do it now.

Yes, but she is betting MPs will rather have her crappy deal (for the UK) than no deal. It is frightening that she is doing it just to try and scare MPs into voting for her deal.

prawnsambo · 19-12-2018 01:24AM

Hurrache wrote: »

Apparently a short bumpy ride at that
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1075102861644718081?s=19

This is Nadine Dorries. Who makes short planks look intelligent. Who gave up trying to understand the customs union because it was too complicated and said on television for the world to see, that May's deal was terrible because it gave them no MEPs and no say in the EU.

jm08 · 19-12-2018 01:26AM

First Up wrote: »

I'm sure IF have tested this with their freight customers.

The Stena service from Rosslare to Cherbourg is still available.

Personally I'm happy to spend an extra hour or two at sea instead of the drive to and from Rosslare.

Hauliers not happy. Say that starting from Dublin adds 4 hours onto the sea journey.

Peregrinus · 19-12-2018 01:27AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Why would we need airlifts?

Because the landbridge will be massively congested, and at least some of our imports that currently come by that route will need to be rerouted to avoid Great Britain. And, while capacity on the sea routes direct to the mainland from Cork and Rosslare has being and is being increased, that won't be enough, at least in the short term. So there will likely be increased reliance on airfreight (which will be expensive).

prawnsambo · 19-12-2018 01:31AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Because the landbridge will be massively congested, and at least some of our imports that currently come by that route will need to be rerouted to avoid Great Britain. And, while capacity on the sea routes direct to the mainland from Cork and Rosslare has being and is being increased, that won't be enough, at least in the short term. So there will likely be increased reliance on airfreight (which will be expensive).

That's already taken care of with the super ferries on the Dublin Zeebrugge/Rotterdam/Amsterdam routes. The additional time isn't massive. Something like 36 hours total.

Peregrinus · 19-12-2018 01:40AM

Shelga wrote: »

So, do people think No Deal is the most likely prospect at this time?

Truly terrifying stuff.

No. May's deal is still the most likely prospect.

First, however much you dislike it, for all Leavers it's better than Remain, and for nearly all Leavers it's better than No Deal. And for all Remainers it's better than No Deal.

That's not to say that May's Deal is certain, or even that it's a greater than 50% chance. But it is a more likely outcome than either No Deal or Remain. And, at this stage in the game, those are the only options.

What is mainly required for May's deal to succeed is a climbdown by the DUP and the ultra-Brexiters, facilitated perhaps by some cosmetic language from the EU. May's increasingly public No Deal preparations are said to be aimed at the EU, but in fact they are mainly aimed at the Tory party, to make it easier for them to say "Gosh, no deal would be really bad". And there are some straws in the wind which suggest that the ERG might be preparing the ground for a climbdown. But it's very early days yet.

Laois_Man · 19-12-2018 01:55AM

jm08 wrote: »

Hauliers not happy. Say that starting from Dublin adds 4 hours onto the sea journey.

Doesn't seem to be.

A quick search on https://ssl.directferries.com/ shows Rosslare to Cherburg is a crossing ranging from 17hrs 45mins to 18hrs 30mins. Dublin to Cherburg is 19 hours.

c.p.w.g.w · 19-12-2018 02:11AM

I'm still amazed at the fact that the Leave side used the red bus(of lies), and nothing has been done about it.

Farage the day after the election admitted the figures were incorrect, the leave side lied to win the election...its baffling that this fact along doesn't justify another referendum.

Jim2007 · 19-12-2018 02:14AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

So there will likely be increased reliance on airfreight (which will be expensive).

Unlikely, the new container ferry has the ability to take 120k of the 190k containers currently going via the UK.

Jim2007 · 19-12-2018 02:17AM

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

I'm still amazed at the fact that the Leave side used the red bus(of lies), and nothing has been done about it.

Farage the day after the election admitted the figures were incorrect, the leave side lied to win the election...its baffling that this fact along doesn't justify another referendum.

Why? They don’t have a written constitution setting out the process and indeed up to about 60 years ago they were believed to be illegal by many constitutional authorities.

c.p.w.g.w · 19-12-2018 02:21AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Why? They don’t have a written constitution setting out the process and indeed up to about 60 years ago they were believed to be illegal by many constitutional authorities.

Because they used lies to win an election...and it worked...maybe the the remainers should have used the same tactic and we wouldn't be in this mess

Sure its going to be a mini disaster for the UK, and the last few weeks has been full of drama, much more unbelievable than east enders:D

Folkstonian · 19-12-2018 02:31AM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I don't want to derail the thread, it's obvious enough that this is way off topic, but it should be clear to anyone that had the IRA been defeated as you claim, then there would be no GFA, there would be no need for one. I have never known any government to do a deal with a defeated paramilitary enemy.

Most conflicts end up being resolved at the negotiating table.

Total annihilation or enemy forces is rare in the history of warfare and has never happened in even the most successful counter insurgency campaigns. It’s wrong to try and judge success or failure by that gauge. Instead it’s far more useful to simply analyse whether or not each side has set out to do what it intended to.

The IRA were rendered combat ineffective by the intelligence agencies without having achieved any of their own stated aims; the British Army are still in Northern Ireland and we aren’t living in a 32 county socialist republic. On balance, they fell well short of achieving victory.

The British pretty much just wanted a quiet life and an end to armed conflict by the mid 90s. They were far more content with the outcome.

Back on Brexit, such pitiful grandstanding by May today to ramp up no deal preparations. If she had been serious, or competent, she would have had comprehensive contingency plans in place 18 months ago and they would have been rehearsed many times over at ports, airports, hospitals and on the transport network. It’s all just a facade to buy her some more time. Her mindset is so deeply odd at this stage. Every further day she remains as PM is a massive win in her eyes. There is no bigger picture than clinging onto power.

Jim2007 · 19-12-2018 02:32AM

flatty wrote: »

May is prepared to hold the entire country to ransom over this, and is doing so, in a final desperate attempt to stamp her seal on brexit. The EU must not give any leeway now, none. She is desperate to avoid a second referendum in the knowledge that she would likely lose it, in an absolute perversion of democracy. The govt and the bbc are in all out spin, with the total tenor of all BBC coverage entirely based upon mays deal or disaster, and not an iota given to a further vote. Senior bbc management are all looking for the holes they will genuflect into no doubt.
It is utterly appalling.
Ireland and the EU must not waver or blink, for the good of all.

Oh please! The EU is not going to waver or blink. The European mentality, including Ireland, is to follow the rules, the agreed framework not go careering of into unknown territory and start making it up as they go along.

Also remember as a major trading block, involved in many negotiations, it can not be seen to be a push over.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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