Sopranos Mafia - Family Redefined - GAME THREAD

Barbara WW · 01-11-2018 12:21PM

Gabriel WW wrote: »

Henry or Clodagh to get yourself cleared as a villager.
Jake or Barbara if you want to actually shoot a wolf. IMO

I'm not a wolf

Katie WW · 01-11-2018 12:25PM

Holly WW wrote: »

Shoot Henry. Clodagh will be taken care of eventually.

Im down with this.

Thierry will he shot.

Katie WW · 01-11-2018 12:26PM

Barbara WW wrote: »

I'm not a wolf

On a scale of 1 to 11.5 how sure are you that you're not a wolf?

Henry WW · 01-11-2018 12:31PM

Holly WW wrote: »

Shoot Henry. Clodagh will be taken care of eventually.

Katie WW wrote: »

Im down with this.

Thierry will he shot.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRbSE2tGD6lbLV5NgvQoQpHgtk-S74A6FGrvegIbMeHSHK08YEF

Gabriel WW · 01-11-2018 12:33PM

Barbara WW wrote: »

I'm not a wolf

I don't know that though do I? BTW, you haven't answered the below. Might be helpful to the village if you did?

Gabriel WW wrote: »

Actually, same question @Barbara.

Vernon WW · 01-11-2018 12:34PM

Ah good. Henry is posting lolThierry's

Vernon WW · 01-11-2018 12:34PM

Barbara WW wrote: »

I'm not a wolf

Shoot a wolf

become lock clear for life

Katie WW · 01-11-2018 12:38PM

Henry WW wrote: »

That was a interesting read back. Great to see we have a village core forming so early on and that we have defeated two of the bad team members.

I had a quick read of the thread yesterday before lynch and put my lynch vote in based on the discussion currently going on and their reaction to it.

Henry WW wrote: »

I can’t make up for my abscence so far and can’t stop ye shooting me. I will be more available for today and hope to be able to prove myself to the village

Henry WW wrote: »

If Oisin is to be believed (I think he is being truthful) then we have another person to add to the village core.

But this also raises the question about other conversions. Oisin said his attempted conversion was today so what happened yesterday? Failed conversion and the poster hasn’t disclosed or has a mafia member been converted?

Henry WW wrote: »

My point still stands though - what happened with today’s conversion? Have the number of members in team mafia or team FBI changed or do we have someone else we add to the village core. Be useful to know when it comes to working out parity numbers.

(Obviously if there is a valid reason for the other person not coming forward then don’t)

Henry WW wrote: »

No as Derry said Tony would only die if Junior was already dead which he isn’t as it hasn’t been announced on thread

Henry WW wrote: »

I don’t see how this would work for the wolves as the OP says invalid kills go to the FBI, surely not placing a kill would be deemed invalid?

Henry WW wrote: »

I read it as they had two shots but if they got it right then they got to keep their shot

Henry WW wrote: »

At the moment my wolf leans would be:

Wini - felt like she saw people giving Liam a bit of leway when he said he was a newbie and tried to claim it herself which I don’t believe

Nigel - his numerous posts about the ITA mechanic and the calculations raised red flags as someone trying to pad out their post count

Clodagh - this would be my choice for the low lying wolf

Henry WW wrote: »

I’m on mobile so answering posts as I see them, have a little patience!

Henry WW wrote: »

Henry WW wrote: »

Shoot: Liam WW

Henry WW wrote: »

Wasn't sure if I would get on in time for the ITA's glad I made it. Great to see Orla gone but such a pity to lose our seer and one of the BG's.

Henry WW wrote: »

Good luck to any of ye who understand how the ITA's work! Maybe the mods can explain it to us in detail after the game in case it is used again.

Henry WW wrote: »

There is something comforting about the idea of a werewolf being hung on Halloween night

Henry WW wrote: »

Out halloweening (not sure if that’s even a word) and remembered to vote in the lynch but seems I missed it.

Not sure if I will get on for 9 to shoot but will try my best

Henry WW wrote: »

This is actually a valid point, how does the self voting work on majority lynch? Do mods take into account a possible X number of votes for Clodagh?

Henry WW wrote: »

Yea seen it, we crossed posts.

Henry WW wrote: »

@mods - can we have an idea of the timeline for tomorrow?

Henry WW wrote: »

Coz he was already dead by the time I finished catching up - good job.

Henry WW wrote: »

@ Brendan - I see you are jumping on myself and Katie - trying to distance yourself from the other low posters? Got something to hide?

@ Holly - I am none of the wolves

Henry WW wrote: »

My wolf guesses would be Clodagh, Katie and Jake.

Would love to put you on that list but no point in being petty

For Reference:

The full sum of Thierry's contribution so far.

Very little of substance.
Only two posts where he gives a view on potential wolf
The last one of which was just throwing out three names without any rationale

The first and only other post where he gives a view on wolf leans he calls out Wini, Nigel and Clodagh.

Wini and Nigel are confirmed villagers and Clodagh is a no show.

My money is on Henry being a wolf and if not his loss will be less of an impact on the village

Katie WW · 01-11-2018 12:39PM

I am kinda inclined to want the twins to come out prior to ITAs

I am fearful of us killing a potentially quiet account and it being the lessor used (if that is the case) of the twins' account.

Derry WW · 01-11-2018 12:47PM

Katie WW wrote: »

I am kinda inclined to want the twins to come out prior to ITAs

I am fearful of us killing a potentially quiet account and it being the lessor used (if that is the case) of the twins' account.

I'd say that's unlikely to happen but also if you do hit that account then you are a confirmed villager in exchange for what is essentially an unconfirmed villager. Worth it IMO.

Holly WW · 01-11-2018 12:53PM

Katie WW wrote: »

I am kinda inclined to want the twins to come out prior to ITAs

I am fearful of us killing a potentially quiet account and it being the lessor used (if that is the case) of the twins' account.

I wouldn’t be pushing this. The twins can lay low for now. Henry has to be the next target then we can discuss other options.

Henry WW · 01-11-2018 12:58PM

Holly WW wrote: »

Shoot Henry. Clodagh will be taken care of eventually.

Katie WW wrote: »

Im down with this.

Thierry will he shot.

Holly WW wrote: »

I wouldn’t be pushing this. The twins can lay low for now. Henry has to be the next target then we can discuss other options.

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sKeith · 01-11-2018 01:01PM

ITA Update:

The chance of a successful hit in the ITAs will be calculated as per the following formula:

( max [ 1 - ( ( φ x 100) - α + ( γ / 3) / ( φ x 100 ) ) , 0.05 ] ) x 100% / 2^θ

What's so hard about that? But, i've had enough questions about it at this stage, so lets just tare it down and simplify.

85%

That's the new formula.

For every 100 shots 85 of them will hit true.

Everyone can shoot.

If you hit your own team member, then both of you die.

ITA window 13:00:00 - 13:59:59

One shot per player, first valid shot per player counts.

Gertrude WW · 01-11-2018 01:04PM

Katie WW wrote: »

I am kinda inclined to want the twins to come out prior to ITAs

I am fearful of us killing a potentially quiet account and it being the lessor used (if that is the case) of the twins' account.

As long as you don't ski off-piste, I'm sure you'll be fine

Gabriel WW · 01-11-2018 01:05PM

sKeith wrote: »

Everyone can shoot.

If you hit your own team member, then both of you die.

ITA window 13:00:00 - 13:59:59

One shot per player, first valid shot per player counts.

Q: if villager hits villager, both villagers die?

Necro · 01-11-2018 01:06PM

Gabriel WW wrote:

Q: if villager hits villager, both villagers die?

That is pretty self apparent I would have thought :pac:

But yes

sKeith · 01-11-2018 01:07PM

Gabriel WW wrote: »

Q: if villager hits villager, both villagers die?

A: If you hit your own team member, then both of you die.

Gabriel WW · 01-11-2018 01:08PM

Okay, we need to be a lot more careful shooting now. Villagers need to target the most likely wolves.

Gertrude WW · 01-11-2018 01:14PM

Gabriel WW wrote: »

Okay, we need to be a lot more careful shooting now. Villagers need to target the most likely wolves.

Let the unclears go for it.

If both die, it narrows down the pool of wolves and we can just lynch to victory. In fact, if 2 unclear villagers die, I think we'll pretty much reach parity

Gertrude WW · 01-11-2018 01:15PM

But Henry is lolcatting, so that's a good place to start

Gabriel WW · 01-11-2018 01:15PM

Gertrude WW wrote: »

Let the unclears go for it.

But will they?

Henry WW · 01-11-2018 01:16PM

This is gonna be fun

Gertrude WW · 01-11-2018 01:17PM

They've no reason not to. Any villager unclear that goes for it, pops a wolf, they then get to pop bottles....as do the rest of us.

we can pretty much turbo the game

Gabriel WW · 01-11-2018 01:18PM

I'm scared! :eek:

Brendan WW · 01-11-2018 01:19PM

Gabriel WW wrote: »

But will they?

I'll happily pop Henry, if both he and I are village then there is 3 from 4 to be taken out, wolves can't fire, 4 confirmed goodies with a lynch to come. Henry isn't village though based on his contributions

Gertrude WW · 01-11-2018 01:19PM

If a wolf takes a shot at any villager, kills the villager, but does not die themselves, then they are outed as wolves.

85% chance is a win/win for the village

Unclear villagers have a great opportunity to get clear
Unouted wolves have a great opportunity to out themselves

Gabriel WW · 01-11-2018 01:20PM

Holly should be safe though even if she hits a villager? Presume it's just ITA shots, not Vig shots that are subject to team-on-team deaths.

Gertrude WW · 01-11-2018 01:20PM

If the remaining wolves all out themselves at the same time by shooting me, gabe and holly for example. Then the rest of the village knows exactly where to aim their weapons and nooses

Necro · 01-11-2018 01:20PM

Shoot: Jack Moore

Gabriel WW · 01-11-2018 01:21PM

Brendan WW wrote: »

I'll happily pop Henry, if both he and I are village then there is 3 from 4 to be taken out, wolves can't fire, 4 confirmed goodies with a lynch to come. Henry isn't village though based on his contributions

Good on ya Bren! But wolves can fire this time.

Sopranos Mafia - Family Redefined - GAME THREAD

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