Brexit discussion thread III

ArmaniJeanss · 12-06-2018 11:02AM

Red_Wake wrote: »

How does that leave the government in terms of seats in Parliament?

Iirc they only needed to lose a handful of seats to fall.

No difference, he remains in parliament and would almost certainly vote with the government on any confidence motion.

An Ciarraioch · 12-06-2018 11:41AM

FDI in NI fell 54% last year:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-investment-by-foreign-firms-plunges-54-as-brexit-fears-mount-37000228.html

trellheim · 12-06-2018 11:52AM

Voting starts from around 3 p.m. on Tuesday and the main amendment to watch is number 19. It would give parliament unprecedented power to direct Brexit negotiations if lawmakers reject the divorce deal that May plans to bring back from Brussels in October. It’s known as the meaningful vote amendment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/may-seeks-to-head-off-rebellion-with-hours-to-go-brexit-update

An Ciarraioch · 12-06-2018 12:47PM

First vote on Bill timetable passes 321-304, suggesting a rebellion of at least 9 MPs would swing more significant motions.

VinLieger · 12-06-2018 12:48PM

Rumours are someone heard him on the phone just after he announced that others were going to follow suit, the theory is they will wait till closer to the votes to avoid any adjustments to amendments that would negate the impact of resignations.

trellheim · 12-06-2018 01:32PM

Andy wigmore just said to the DCMS committee that "we gave the Sunday Times those emails" ...... you could not make this up .... Isabel Oakeshott must be like pinocchio at this stage. Carole Cadwalladers twitter is severely fun at the moment.

Ellian · 12-06-2018 01:41PM

SNP's Peter Grant is speaking rather well IMO. The pro government narrative esp against Amendment 19 seems to be that the Lords are deliberately attempting to frustrate Brexit entirely by dressing up their arguments as parliamentary sovereignty. Whereas those on the other side are arguing that it is really is parliamentary sovereignty.

LeinsterDub · 12-06-2018 02:36PM

EU Withdrawal Bill: Four more ministers prepared to quit over Brexit after Phillip Lee's 'warning shot' resignation

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/12/eu-withdrawal-bill-minister-quits-hours-crucial-brexit-vote/

Are the wheels starting to come off? We've been here before I suppose and May has limped on . Only time will tell.

FrancieBrady · 12-06-2018 02:43PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think our dependency will lessen now regardless of the outcome. This has been a wake up call for Ireland economically and strategically. We have seen how quickly the Tory eurosceptics blamed lack of progress on Ireland and how ready they are to throw peace under the bus. In the same vein, they were happy to threaten our economy if we didn't acquiesce.

The lesson for everyone on the island should be as nationalists/republicans have always said: ultimately Britain does not care and will act selfishly in the interests of itself. Irish people deluding themselves that they are an equal part of Britain will be sadly forced to confront this.
Much better to be a full partner in the governing of your own island.

J Mysterio · 12-06-2018 03:21PM

Tory minister Phillip Lee resigns over Brexit on day of crucial EU withdrawal votes

The ex-minister said 'I cannot, in all good conscience, support how our country’s current exit from the EU looks'

A Conservative minister has quit his job over the way Theresa May is delivering Brexit, in a blow for the government ahead of critical votes in the House of Commons.

Dr Phillip Lee said the move was due to his intention to back a plan giving parliament power to direct Ms May’s approach, something the prime minister is determined to avoid.

J Mysterio · 12-06-2018 03:26PM

express-12-06-0.jpg?width=736&height=490&fit=bounds&format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=70

An Ciarraioch · 12-06-2018 03:32PM

Looks like the Tory rebels will back down on the "meaningful vote" amendment, as May has promised to introduce its own one in the Lords.

Infini · 12-06-2018 03:39PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Last time I checked 17m of a pop of 64m was a minority. Vote was 51/49 so could hardly call that "the will of the people". I would also say if there's a 2nd referendum people are gonna vote remain this time! :P

Honestly when all this is said and done some of these "publications" need to be sorted out because that shíte is well into propaganda rag territory not news.

An Ciarraioch · 12-06-2018 03:53PM

Faisal Islam reports May accepts parts A and B of George's amendment, but not C:

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1006561965228068866/photo/1

eire4 · 12-06-2018 04:01PM

Infini wrote: »

Last time I checked 17m of a pop of 64m was a minority. Vote was 51/49 so could hardly call that "the will of the people". I would also say if there's a 2nd referendum people are gonna vote remain this time! :P

Honestly when all this is said and done some of these "publications" need to be sorted out because that sh is well into propaganda rag territory not news.

Your certainly right about those "publications" being propaganda outlets rather then legit news sources. But come one now that is not exactly new for the Express and the Sun they have been far right propaganda outlets rather then legit news sources for quite some time now so it is all rather as you would expect how they are currently behaving.

An Ciarraioch · 12-06-2018 04:17PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Faisal Islam reports May accepts parts A and B of George's amendment, but not C:

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1006561965228068866/photo/1

The implication of both appears to take "no deal" off the table at least until the 30th of November.

Christy42 · 12-06-2018 04:30PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/uk/sun-great-britain-front-page/amp/

As ever the Sun have not put an ounce of thought into it given most of the landmarks featured are not in fact very British are generally only there due to immigrants or even the EU in the case of the angel of the north. Heck even the Sun itself is Australian owned if I remember correctly.

ancapailldorcha · 12-06-2018 04:34PM

Christy42 wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/uk/sun-great-britain-front-page/amp/

As ever the Sun have not put an ounce of thought into it given most of the landmarks featured are not in fact very British are generally only there due to immigrants or even the EU in the case of the angel of the north. Heck even the Sun itself is Australian owned if I remember correctly.

I haven't factchecked this but I would expect it to be true:

https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1006294392032956416

An Ciarraioch · 12-06-2018 04:43PM

Meaningful vote amendment now being voted on.

An Ciarraioch · 12-06-2018 04:45PM

Government wins 324-298.

For Forks Sake · 12-06-2018 04:47PM

Christy42 wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/uk/sun-great-britain-front-page/amp/

As ever the Sun have not put an ounce of thought into it given most of the landmarks featured are not in fact very British are generally only there due to immigrants or even the EU in the case of the angel of the north. Heck even the Sun itself is Australian owned if I remember correctly.

And the Loch Ness monster (actually in there, just below Angel of the North) ?

Capt'n Midnight · 12-06-2018 04:51PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think it is entirely fair to say, that all on their own volition, the DUP have set themselves up to win(in their own eyes) or lose here.
The DUP's socially and now economic regressivness has been laid bare either way. .

In todays I can't believe it's not democratic, DUP news. The party that could trigger an election tomorrow.

A DUP insider told the BBC's Nolan Show politicians are forced to pay as much as £1,000 if they break internal protocol on dealing with the press.

The practice of fining elected representatives was "quite unacceptable", said the former chairman of the Committee on Standards in Public Life, as it undermines democracy, and is authoritarian and draconian.

"Elected representatives represent their constituents, even though they have been elected on a particular party ticket, they are there to put over their point of view representing those constituents," said Sir Alastair Graham.

"If they are severely constrained through threats and fines, then that really does undermine their effectiveness," he added.

....
In 2007, as the DUP contemplated sharing power with Sinn Fein, the BBC reported that party candidates were being asked to sign post dated resignation letters and to pay big fines if they stepped out of line.

The Ulster Unionists described the DUP rules as bordering on "fascism".

joeysoap · 12-06-2018 06:46PM

Afaik the mini is now German owned?

A spitfire, bless.

And a football.

Rod Liddell was funny in Sunday Times tbf..

Still, at least it is comforting to know that football fans in Cardiff, Edinburgh, Belfast and Dublin will be rooting for us as the only representatives of these isles.

Funny man ( he is actually)

An Ciarraioch · 12-06-2018 06:53PM

Interesting development as Barnier offers EEA plus a bespoke customs union:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/britain-could-keep-frictionless-trade-after-brexit-by-joining-eea-and-customs-union-michel-barnier-says/ar-AAyybfi

Enzokk · 12-06-2018 07:04PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting development as Barnier offers EEA plus a bespoke customs union:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/britain-could-keep-frictionless-trade-after-brexit-by-joining-eea-and-customs-union-michel-barnier-says/ar-AAyybfi

I don't know if he offered it but presented it as a solution to the commitments made by the UK and fulfilling their desire to leave the EU. But that would mean there would still be free movement of goods and people and also they would not be able to have their own trade deals so already there is two red lines that will need to be broken for this to happen.

Jim2007 · 12-06-2018 07:22PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting development as Barnier offers EEA plus a bespoke customs union:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/britain-could-keep-frictionless-trade-after-brexit-by-joining-eea-and-customs-union-michel-barnier-says/ar-AAyybfi

Barnier can't offer EEA membership, nor can the EU unless the UK remains a member. Otherwise, it is up to the EFTA members to decide if they wish to admit the UK or not. Norway have already indicated their reluctance to admit them and Switzerland would most likely need to hold a referendum.

It seems what Barnier actual said was: the EEA with a customs union was a possible model for a future relationship, and that the two were not incompatible.

And both Norway and Switzerland have said that if the UK gets a new deal then they also want to renegotiate.

flatty · 12-06-2018 08:10PM

So what does today's parliamentary vote actually mean?
Is it an expected rubber stamp which means that a hard brexit is still the most likely outcome, or has anything unexpected happened, or actually changed?

An Ciarraioch · 12-06-2018 08:48PM

flatty wrote: »

So what does today's parliamentary vote actually mean?
Is it an expected rubber stamp which means that a hard brexit is still the most likely outcome, or has anything unexpected happened, or actually changed?

Having to concede points to Grieve essentially takes "no deal" off the table, even if the eventual outcome remains up in the air.

FrancieBrady · 12-06-2018 08:59PM

flatty wrote: »

So what does today's parliamentary vote actually mean?
Is it an expected rubber stamp which means that a hard brexit is still the most likely outcome, or has anything unexpected happened, or actually changed?

May cannot use No Deal as leverage in negotiations.

As somebody said on the radio - she is out of the frying pan and into the tumble dryer.

J Mysterio · 12-06-2018 09:24PM

John Humphrys interview with David Davis on Today Programme (from 2:11:00).

Humphrys works him pretty hard and Davis forgets what day of the week it is. Couple of interesting bits. Says:

▪'I know whats not going to happen' re: what UK won't concede (red lines) but refuses to recognise EU redlines aka cherrypicking. ▪Strongly emphasises 'no single market, no customs union' ▪'Whatever meaningul vote there will be, it wont be about reversing the vote of the people'. Doesnt make sense, you can change your mind in a democracy. Logic dictates mistakes will be made. ▪"the PM and I are always very suprised how informed the EU leaders are, they read everything'.

Brexit discussion thread III

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