Brexit discussion thread III

Capt'n Midnight · 11-06-2018 04:51PM

Still not seeing any Brexit Bonus.

Jaguar Land Rover to shed 1,000 contract staff

Rolls-Royce refuses to confirm or deny 4,000 job cuts report

Poundworld enters administration after rescue talks fail

But despite the collapse of so many stores, David Gill, the national officer for the Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers, was not wholly pessimistic: "When Toys R Us went into administration we had a number of retailers we work closely with saying 'there are job vacancies can you point them in this direction?', but whether you can absorb all 5,000 jobs that's another discussion."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44438838

Manufacturing output fell 1.4% in April, the biggest fall for nearly six years, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
...

The UK's trade deficit in April was the widest since September 2016 driven in particular by falls in exports of aircraft, pharmaceuticals and machinery.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44438839

The economic "bounce-back" expected by the Bank of England is struggling to materialise, according to a leading economic forecaster.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said growth between March and May was just 0.2%,

This is the value of the pound graph they showed in the Poundland story.

The graph agains the Euro is a lot flatter..

KingNerolives · 11-06-2018 05:18PM

Should rise to above 1.7 after brexit

11-06-2018 05:28PM

KingNerolives wrote: »

Should rise to above 1.7 after brexit

I assume you are liquidating all of your assets in order to buy the Future available on CME?

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/british-pound.html

Huge ROI available to you if you truly believe that.

flatty · 11-06-2018 05:41PM

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

No
He's already come out and said that now is not the time to be thinking about a border poll. He's terrified, along with the Dublin clique, that it may actually be successful.

The time for going for the jugular for a border poll is after Brexit is implemented and a proven disaster.

You'll know the time is right when SF go for it in earnest. They are smart enough to have learned from the Scottish ref, and the folly of shooting your bolt too soon.

Nate

In fairness to the Scots they could never have envisaged brexit at the time.

flatty · 11-06-2018 05:48PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

This is from the Express!

'Is it a backstop?' May's time-limited proposal TORN APART as EU turns screws on Brexit

THE European Union has systematically dismantled Theresa May’s demand for a “time-limited” backstop plan to prevent a hard border emerging on the island of Ireland, dismissing much of its content

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/972674/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Theresa-May-backstop-Ireland-Michel-Barnier-latest

Same story in the indo if you prefer
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-theresa-may-eu-northern-ireland-border-deal-uk-a8393456.html

I think it's speaks volumes that the Express aren't even attempting to spin this anymore and the article is surprisingly neutral. I've notice change in the tone of the Express in the past few day. The editor of the Mail has also jumped ship.

Is the Brexit press preparing to jumping ship ?

Sunday Times has jumped already.

Patser · 11-06-2018 05:51PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Still not seeing any Brexit Bonus.

This is the value of the pound graph they showed in the Poundland story.

The graph agains the Euro is a lot flatter..

The Euro graph you have linked is only for last year, and while flatter than dollar fluctuations, it doesn't show the massive drops that took place post brexit - and which show no signs of bouncing back.

3 years ago £1 = €1.44 although that was at height of Greece crisis when Euros existence seemed in threat, so historically the pound normally hovered around €1.30\1.35. For much of last year its been stuck between €1.10/1.15

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-EUR

BonnieSituation · 11-06-2018 05:57PM

flatty wrote: »

In fairness to the Scots they could never have envisaged brexit at the time.

Well you could always envisage that the Tories would screw them in future. Cos that's what they do.

listermint · 11-06-2018 06:06PM

Theres a bigger concern here as to why May is not going hell for leather on the A.banks story and the Russian involvement. There's a large hook to hand the whole thing on and its right there for the taking.

Anthracite · 11-06-2018 06:24PM

flatty wrote: »

Sunday Times has jumped already.

It was always Remain.

An Ciarraioch · 11-06-2018 09:26PM

Seems the "rebels" are now backing a "customs arrangement" motion:

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1006268344348106758?p=v

Anthracite · 11-06-2018 09:46PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Seems the "rebels" are now backing a "customs arrangement" motion:

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1006268344348106758?p=v

Being in the customs union does not deal with the regulatory border.

Capt'n Midnight · 11-06-2018 10:30PM

listermint wrote: »

Theres a bigger concern here as to why May is not going hell for leather on the A.banks story and the Russian involvement. There's a large hook to hand the whole thing on and its right there for the taking.

Three letters.

ECJ

For May everything else is collateral damage.

joeysoap · 11-06-2018 11:37PM

Anthracite wrote: »

It was always Remain.

It was always leave.

Anthracite · 11-06-2018 11:58PM

joeysoap wrote: »

It was always leave.

You are right.

Peregrinus · 12-06-2018 01:34AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is the bit I am having trouble with. I just cannot see how any MP and PM could follow a course of action that will lead to things getting worse . . .

The thing is that no-deal hard brexit is the default.

You don't have to "follow a course of action" to get there. All you have to do is fail to follow a course of action which will avoid it.

What the UK needs is a course of action which (a) enjoys some kind of consensus in the UK, and (b) is acceptable to the EU. If they can't develop such a course and follow it, there will be a no-deal hard Brexit.

May spent the first year or so after the referendum doing everything possible to sabotage the development of any kind of consensus. Since the disastrous (for her) general election result she has been trying to reclaim the position, inch by grinding inch, dragging her cabinet and her party towards a softer and more realistic vision of Brexit. She's had some success, but she may not be able to complete the task in the time available (or at all).

Zubeneschamali · 12-06-2018 05:45AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

The thing is that no-deal hard brexit is the default.

Well, yes, but that is like saying that a huge crash is the default result of a game of chicken. In practice someone blinks first and dodges the crash, especially when they are in a Mini vs. a bin lorry.

The EU does not want to see a hard brexit crash out with no deal, so when the UK finally blinks and accepts reality, even if it is last minute stuff, the EU will accommodate whatever delay is needed to get them into a Canada type deal with an exception for NI (or whatever the UK government of the day finally agrees on).

Peregrinus · 12-06-2018 06:08AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Well, yes, but that is like saying that a huge crash is the default result of a game of chicken. In practice someone blinks first and dodges the crash, especially when they are in a Mini vs. a bin lorry.

It's not quite like that. In the game of chicken, either side can avoid the crash by taking evasive action. But in the game of Brexit, joint action is required; the crash-out can only be avoided by both sides agreeing to a withdrawal deal. Which is why I say that the UK must develop a consensus around Brexit terms which are acceptable to the EU. Forming a consensus in the UK around Brexit terms which the EU won't accept still ends up in a hard Brexit.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU does not want to see a hard brexit crash out with no deal, so when the UK finally blinks and accepts reality, even if it is last minute stuff, the EU will accommodate whatever delay is needed to get them into a Canada type deal with an exception for NI (or whatever the UK government of the day finally agrees on).

No. The EU won't accept "whatever the UK government of the day finally agrees on"; the EU has its own red lines, and they are well-known.

A "Canada-type deal", as you point out, is not something the EU would accept, since on its own it would not keep the Irish border open. So, as you rightly say, the UK needs to (at a minimum) accept also further terms which would keep the Irish border open.

But it's not enough that the UK government agrees this; they have to get it through parliament, with the possibility of rebellion either by the DUP (if the "further terms to keep the Irish border open" involve treating NI separately from GB) or from the Tory Brexiteers (if the "further terms" apply to the whole of the UK, and are considered to keep the UK too close to the EU).

Which is why I talk about consensus; if HMG can't depend on the DUP and/or the Tory Brexiteers, then they have to find some cross-party support to be sure of getting their Brexit through Parliament. If they fail to do that then, notwithstanding HMG's willingness to come to terms with the EU and Parliament's distaste for a hard Brexit, we'll still end up with a hard Brexit.

In short, it's not enough that the British don't want a hard Brexit; they have to be willing to do what is necessary if a hard Brexit is to be avoided.

Zubeneschamali · 12-06-2018 06:18AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

The EU won't accept "whatever the UK government of the day finally agrees on"; the EU has its own red lines, and they are well-known.

A "Canada-type deal", as you point out, is not something the EU would accept, since on its own it would not keep the Irish border open. So, as you rightly say, the UK needs to (at a minimum) accept also further terms which would keep the Irish border open.

I am talking about after the UK blinks - they will (having wasted the entire period of negotiations on infighting) simply have to take something that is on offer from the EU.

Because the alternative is to drive the bus off the cliff, and Parliament won't do that. Even if May is actually mad and wants to, Parliament will not, in the end, allow her to.

Peregrinus · 12-06-2018 06:28AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I am talking about after the UK blinks - they will (having wasted the entire period of negotiations on infighting) simply have to take something that is on offer from the EU.

Because the alternative is to drive the bus off the cliff, and Parliament won't do that. Even if May is actually mad and wants to, Parliament will not, in the end, allow her to.

So, suppose May doesn't blink, and comes to Parliament in October saying "to my lasting regret, I am unable to reach agreement with the EU on a deal which I can recommend to this house. Hard Brexit it is."

What does Parliament do? And, whatever that is, how does it avoid a hard Brexit?

And, scenario 2: May does reach agreement with the EU, but a vote to approve the agreeement is lost because Labour and the SNP whip against it, and there are enough Tory dissenter/DUP votes against it to secure its defeat.

Again, what does Parliament do? And how does that avoid a hard Brexit?

EdgeCase · 12-06-2018 07:47AM

It’s not really a game of chicken when only one party is engaged in the game.

It’s more like: “this is the HMS Titianic II - we demand you change position! This is Europa 4, we cannot change position. Europa 4: this is a British Naval Vessel - change your position! ..... HMS Titanic II : we have told you repeatedly already- this is a light house! You’re going to crash!!”

flatty · 12-06-2018 07:49AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Peregrinus wrote: »

The thing is that no-deal hard brexit is the default.

Well, yes, but that is like saying that a huge crash is the default result of a game of chicken. In practice someone blinks first and dodges the crash, especially when they are in a Mini vs. a bin lorry.

The EU does not want to see a hard brexit crash out with no deal, so when the UK finally blinks and accepts reality, even if it is last minute stuff, the EU will accommodate whatever delay is needed to get them into a Canada type deal with an exception for NI (or whatever the UK government of the day finally agrees on).

I'd say an analogy more apt would be Britain driving straight at a wall. The eu are not involved in a game of chicken. I say this as a UK resident.

Nody · 12-06-2018 07:52AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

So, suppose May doesn't blink, and comes to Parliament in October saying "to my lasting regret, I am unable to reach agreement with the EU on a deal which I can recommend to this house. Hard Brexit it is."

What does Parliament do? And, whatever that is, how does it avoid a hard Brexit?

And, scenario 2: May does reach agreement with the EU, but a vote to approve the agreeement is lost because Labour and the SNP whip against it, and there are enough Tory dissenter/DUP votes against it to secure its defeat.

Again, what does Parliament do? And how does that avoid a hard Brexit?

You're being very generous Peregrinus to assume she'd come to the parliament in October; based on what they been setting up (negotiations will go down to the wire etc.) I'd expect her to go there in late February/mid March. No matter what the parliament wants to do at that stage it will be either to agree to May's deal (what ever it is) or hard crash out as the options on the table (and that's assuming May has got any kind of deal in the first place to put on their table).

LeinsterDub · 12-06-2018 07:59AM

Nody wrote: »

You're being very generous Peregrinus to assume she'd come to the parliament in October; based on what they been setting up (negotiations will go down to the wire etc.) I'd expect her to go there in late February/mid March. No matter what the parliament wants to do at that stage it will be either to agree to May's deal (what ever it is) or hard crash out as the options on the table (and that's assuming May has got any kind of deal in the first place to put on their table).

The deal has to be approved by 37 assemblies or parliaments IIRC. February is too late.

12-06-2018 08:02AM

Any word on the Gibraltar issue? Someone mentioned it here a few dozen pages back.. All eyes on Dublin but not so many on Madrid.

Zubeneschamali · 12-06-2018 08:05AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

So, suppose May doesn't blink, and comes to Parliament in October saying "to my lasting regret, I am unable to reach agreement with the EU on a deal which I can recommend to this house. Hard Brexit it is."

What does Parliament do?

Bring down the Government.

And in the second scenario, Parliament does not reject the best deal on offer.

Your first scenario supposes that Labour cannot defeat a crazy May in parliament, and your second supposes a crazy Labour Party can defeat a sane May.

I see no reason to suppose May or Labour are crazy.

Maybe, maybe the SNP would force a Hard Brexit if they could to bring about Independence, but that would be a very dangerous game as they could just as easily be blamed for the recession in Scotland.

Zubeneschamali · 12-06-2018 08:10AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The deal has to be approved by 37 assemblies or parliaments IIRC. February is too late.

No, if the UK come up with a last minute proposal to accept Canada with an NI carve-out and some language on Gibraltar, the EU will punt for 6 months to allow it to be ratified.

Hard Brexit really would be a disaster, and the EU does not want a disaster on their doorstep.

And please don't tell me this course is illegal - the EU will do it anyway and worry about the legalities later.

flatty · 12-06-2018 08:13AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The deal has to be approved by 37 assemblies or parliaments IIRC. February is too late.

No, if the UK come up with a last minute proposal to accept Canada with an NI carve-out and some language on Gibraltar, the EU will punt for 6 months to allow it to be ratified.

Hard Brexit really would be a disaster, and the EU does not want a disaster on their doorstep.

And please don't tell me this course is illegal - the EU will do it anyway and worry about the legalities later.

I really hope you are right.

Peregrinus · 12-06-2018 08:15AM

Nody wrote: »

You're being very generous Peregrinus to assume she'd come to the parliament in October; based on what they been setting up (negotiations will go down to the wire etc.) I'd expect her to go there in late February/mid March. No matter what the parliament wants to do at that stage it will be either to agree to May's deal (what ever it is) or hard crash out as the options on the table (and that's assuming May has got any kind of deal in the first place to put on their table).

In February or March, she doesn't have a deal. Any withdrawal agreement has to be ratified by each of the EU-27, in accordance with their own constitutional processes, and also by the European Parliament, before B-day. Exactly what those constitutional processes will require will depend on the content of the withdrawal agreement. But there's no possibility whatsoever that an agreement concluded in late February/mid March can be fully ratified by all of the EU-27 and the EP the end of March.

That's why everybody has targetted September as the deadline for settling the Withdrawal Agreement, so that it can be ratified by the European Council at its October meeting, and then sent to the member states for individual ratification between November and March.

If they fail to get it done in time for the October European Council, the next European Council is on December 13/14, and if it's signed off then there is at least some chance of ratification before B-day. That's the fallback plan, though nobody will say so publicly at this point.

If they don't make the December Council, the next Council isn't until 21 March, eight days before Brexit day. That's way, way too late.

Peregrinus · 12-06-2018 08:17AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, if the UK come up with a last minute proposal to accept Canada with an NI carve-out and some language on Gibraltar, the EU will punt for 6 months to allow it to be ratified.

Hard Brexit really would be a disaster, and the EU does not want a disaster on their doorstep.

And please don't tell me this course is illegal - the EU will do it anyway and worry about the legalities later.

It's not illegal - the EU can extend the Art 50 period, provided the EU-27 members agree unanimously to do so. I wouldn't take unanimous agreement for granted, but it's possible and certainly not illegal.

Leroy42 · 12-06-2018 08:29AM

Just a question, just Ireland really want NI to have special status?

If they are in both camps, wouldn't that mean that any FDI would simply locate to NI as it gives them free access to both markets (and the UK is a large market).

Are we not building up massive problems for ourselves with this stance that NI must be open?

Brexit discussion thread III

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