Brexit discussion thread III

EdgeCase · 08-06-2018 10:04PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Unionism isn't known for for consensus and pragmatism.

Well, an aspect of political unionism / loyalism isn't. I just hope the Northern Irish electorate holds them responsible for the aftermath and don't just sheepishly follow the tabloids and blame "Brussels" for the border.

They're being presented with a unique opportunity to pretty much preserve the status quo and possibly create a huge advantage for the Northern Irish economy, as the only place that does get its cake and eat it.

Although, cake is quite controversial amongst some aspects of those who support the DUP...

Water John · 08-06-2018 10:09PM

Well NI could have a sort 2 in 1 Ref. Join ROI and stay in EU or remain in UK and leave EU.

McGiver · 08-06-2018 10:16PM

prinzeugen wrote: »

But yet the British is the problem? Go read some books about the slave trade.. The Brits are the good guys in this.

You can't be serious. Liverpool was at one stage the richest city in the Empire and that solely due to the slave trade.

EdgeCase · 08-06-2018 10:19PM

McGiver wrote: »

You can't be serious. Liverpool was at one stage the richest city in the Empire and that solely due to the slave trade.

Shhhh! You're upsetting people who like to imagine that the British Empire brought civilisation to the world, and did so entirely through lovely golf outings and garden parties and that membership was entirely voluntary.

Clare in Exile · 08-06-2018 10:23PM

I feel that Unionism needs to show some flexibility on this issue. This truly is a situation where NI can have the best of both worlds. As mentioned previously, there are already checks in some situations for items moving from Great Britain to NI. Also, NI has no problem being separate from the rest of the UK when it comes to issues such as abortion.

The GFA clearly states that the constitutional position of NI can only change with the consent of the majority of people there - having the border moved to the Irish Sea does not change that.

I accept that ideologically for some Unionists it is a difficult proposition, but the advantages for NI were they to be given special status surely outweigh any Unionist fears?

As so often in Irish history it's a case of "what if?". What if May had won a convincing majority in the last election, would she have conceded to giving NI special status? More than likely, given the headache Brexit has become.

Alas, circumstances have brought us to where we are today. I feel that the EU and Ireland are playing a good game so far, the British on the other hand are walking and talking themselves into knots. It really has been men against boys thus far...

BlitzKrieg · 08-06-2018 10:24PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's nonsense. PR wasn't an option and even if it was it would never have passed because apparently it was "too confusing"!
Do you remember the AV campaign?

Yes I remember, I also remember aside from confusing the other two scare tactics was the classic "Coalition" and "UKIP" fears that was hung over people. In the UK they have some serious political fear of having coalitions, it's seen as some sort of failure of politics when they are forced to have one.

The UKIP one drove me up the wall because I seriously doubt ukip would have been the 2nd choice for anyone's vote, someone willing to vote ukip is much more likely the vote ukip first, tory second then someone voting tory first to pick ukip second.

But the biggest annoyance was how much a of beautiful political stitch up it was by the tories on the lib dems, getting them to trade away some of their core campaign promises for this referendum, putting them front and centre to take the blame for those broken promises (specifically to young people like student fees etc) all for this referendum and they saddle them with AV as the only option and sink it in the campaign. It was a masterful bit of evil politcal wrangling.

So colour me surprised when none of that wrangling happened in the Brexit campaign. Whatever evil genius they had for the AV referendum was either a Brexiteer themselves or had been murdered by the lib dems since the av vote cause Cameron really had brexit backfire on him.

Enzokk · 09-06-2018 09:21AM

Do you remember the tweet from Nadine Dorries about David Davis and his SAS training and him being able to take people out? This article column from Marina Hyde sheds some light on that training he has.

Incidentally, when I was writing this newspaper’s Diary column – some time in the early cretaceous period – I solicited reminiscences of Davis’s time in the SAS (territorial). A couple of his former brothers-in-arms got in touch with memories of TA 21-SAS (V). I had two favourite anecdotes. The first was when Davis was required to coordinate an ambush, and opted to position his men on either side of the road so that – had the exercise been real – the soldiers would have opened fire on each other. The Sun Tzu of DExEU, there. The second story saw Davis charged with managing an “escape and evasion” mission. “It was supposed to last five days,” recalled one of his men. “But he accidentally led us through a choke point – a kind of bottleneck where trackers always wait – and got us captured inside 36 hours. So we were put in a truck, blindfolded, driven around, and dropped at night on an undisclosed remote hill to start all over again.” I mean … the jokes are too easy, aren’t they?

Keep calm – the Top Guns of Brexit have got our backs

CelticRambler · 09-06-2018 09:33AM

Clare in Exile wrote: »

The GFA clearly states that the constitutional position of NI can only change with the consent of the majority of people there - having the border moved to the Irish Sea does not change that.

I accept that ideologically for some Unionists it is a difficult proposition, but the advantages for NI were they to be given special status surely outweigh any Unionist fears?

Not forgetting that, according to JRM, IDS, BJ & Co., a border between NI and RoI would be no more of an inconvenience than between one London Borough and another; between NI & Britain would be less challenging, and as it would require nothing more than a mobile phone and a Oyster Card to implement (I believe the Brexit spin, honest! :rolleyes: ), the DUP would hardly even notice there was a border in the sea ...

Water John · 09-06-2018 09:38AM

When it came to Agriculture, Ian Paisley Snr. had no problem with a border down the Irish Sea.

Sam Russell · 09-06-2018 10:53AM

Water John wrote: »

When it came to Agriculture, Ian Paisley Snr. had no problem with a border down the Irish Sea.

As he is known to have said: 'We are Brirish but our cows are Irish!'. Of course it helps if that is financially advantageous.

Sam Russell · 09-06-2018 11:03AM

Au pairs are no longer going to the UK according to the Guardian.

Au pair shortage sparks childcare crisis for families

75% slump in applications blamed on Brexit and fallout from terrorist attacks

McGiver · 09-06-2018 12:21PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I believe that they have this fanciful notion that they are being oppressed by anonymous EU bureaucrats and that power is being removed from Westminster.

Yes and this one is a good example. And that would be on the smarter end of the electorate.
https://youtu.be/QwK1MCTltSA

McGiver · 09-06-2018 01:24PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

The DUP are rejecting what could be mana from heaven economic status for NI, placing it as some kind of special status that has huge advantages in terms of being potentially within both markets, albeit with some kind of balancing controls.

Apart from their bigotry, I think they don't want to allow the dual status as that could diminish them in long run as the Irish/Catholics/Nationalists get majority due to demographics and pragmatic/liberal/soft Unionists lean to the EU side of things more than broken Brexit England-Wales.

EdgeCase · 09-06-2018 01:31PM

I think the DUP's assumption that there's a large Northern Ireland vote that's akin to the US Bible Belt is what will destroy them. It's a small bubble that largely exists in a narrow area of Northern Ireland and is perhaps getting an inflated view of itself because it's affirming itself with a reflection that's actually largely an online American bubble, not reality in Northern Ireland.

If you look at where they are on social policies, notably things like gay marriage and abortion, and where the opinion polls in Northern Ireland show the population to be, the two are a million miles apart. Whereas that's not the case in the US in the areas where GOP support is strong.

I could see the DUP dragging Northern Ireland into a mess and then ending up totally irrelevant as people just turn away from them, realising quite how toxic their politics is. There's a far more pragmatic and moderate and non-religious aspect of unionism that should be much more represented in NI, but isn't because of stupid identity politics that has allowed this kind of extremism into the mainstream.

An Ciarraioch · 09-06-2018 04:33PM

Indeed, Mike Nesbitt and Doug Beattie appear to be two prime examples within the UUP, but because the liberal Protestant is split between them and Alliance, it allows the DUP to play the "split vote means an SF First Minister" card.

Seth Brundle · 09-06-2018 06:30PM

Saw this just now from Love Island which may reflect the British governments misunderstanding of the potential outcome of Brexit...

Student Georgia Steel, 20, kicked off the conversation by quizzing the group about their views on Brexit - before Liverpool model Hayley Hughes, 21, admitted she had no idea what it was.

Ms Steel, from York, explained it meant the UK 'leaving the European Union', but Ms Hughes still looked baffled by the idea.

In the hilarious segment, Ms Hughes then asked if Britain leaving the European Union would result in the loss of trees.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-5823421/Love-Island-Fans-mock-Hayley-left-baffled-Brexit.html

Water John · 09-06-2018 06:57PM

I wouldn't mock her. If the UK Cabinet admitted it, hadn't a clue what Brexit meant, that would be a breath of fresh air.

An Ciarraioch · 09-06-2018 07:12PM

Guardian monthly poll suggests public opinion is moving towards the Single Market - 38% favour remaining in it, rather than FoM restrictions, while 34% think the opposite. There's little appetite for a second referendum (48% against, 38% for), while only 41% of Leavers favour the Tory approach to negotiations:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/09/fewer-leave-voters-back-tories-handling-of-brexit-poll

KingNerolives · 09-06-2018 07:12PM

No way that love Island comment is real

Enzokk · 09-06-2018 07:40PM

KingNerolives wrote: »

No way that love Island comment is real

Be prepared to be amazed,

'Love Island': The Contestants Attempted To Discuss Brexit And It Was Quite Something

After Samira Mightly claimed it meant we were “won’t be part of Europe” and Georgia attempted to make some comment about trade deals, Hayley replied: “So does that mean we won’t have any trees?”

“That’s got nothing to do with it, babe. That’s weather,” Georgia told her.

As Kendall Rae-Knight tried to be the sensible voice in the conversation explaining the difference between being in Europe and being in the EU, Georgia then said: “Doesn’t it mean it would be harder to like, go to like, Spain and stuff?”

“So it would be harder to go on holidays?” Hayley responded. “Oh I love my holidays.”

https://twitter.com/gullyburrows/status/1005187613270167552

An Ciarraioch · 09-06-2018 07:46PM

Sunday Times lead tomorrow concerns links between Arron Banks and Russian officials:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1005498543740727301

joeysoap · 09-06-2018 09:05PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Sunday Times lead tomorrow concerns links between Arron Banks and Russian officials:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1005498543740727301

And the ST supported Brexit. Time ( pun) to climb out of the cesspool?

ancapailldorcha · 09-06-2018 09:13PM

So, in a rather interesting turn of events, Geordie Greig who edited the curiously Remain-backing Mail on Sunday is to take over as editor of it's larger sister, the Daily Mail:

Geordie Greig is to be the new editor of the Daily Mail, putting a staunch remainer in charge of one of the most pro-Brexit newspapers in the country.

The current Mail on Sunday boss will replace Paul Dacre, 69, who is stepping down in November.

Source.

Not sure what to make of this. Dacre will be around for a while yet. It remains to be seen whether not he'll either be able to pivot his newspaper's stance or even be willing to in the event that he's a "Let's get on with it" sort of Remainer.

Anthracite · 09-06-2018 10:03PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Sunday Times lead tomorrow concerns links between Arron Banks and Russian officials:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1005498543740727301

In fairness, there's a trail of sulfur a mile long behind Banks' wife. She's about the most obvious Russian agent since Rosa Klebb. Weren't there already questions about whether Banks was really wealthy enough to fund his Brexit movement?

murphaph · 10-06-2018 09:38AM

I'm wondering could we all be overtaken by events. Trump seems fairly unconcerned about the prospect of an actual trade war. It may not be Ireland that ends up being the spanner in the Brexit works but the Donald. It may be enough to scare parliament into siding with the UK's friends of 44 years. The EU is surely a more reliable partner than the United States under this president.

10-06-2018 10:01AM

I don't think that the current make up of the Government (or indeed parliament!) could realistically volte face.

The UK would need a huge swing in opinion polls for that to change, and I just can't see it happening.

The UK is ambling down a path over confidently, tearing up the paving behind them as they go.

LeinsterDub · 10-06-2018 05:04PM

Over a quarter of people in the six counties say they have changed their mind since the Brexit vote and now support a united Ireland – bringing polling for a referendum to 45 per cent staying in the UK and 42 per cent leaving it, with 13 per cent undecided.

Given pollster recent inability to predict Christmas on the 24th of December and keeping in mind a recent poll indicted mid 20's support. What do we make of this?

Should those supporting a UI or independent Scotland be secretly hoping for a hard Brexit?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-united-ireland-referendum-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html?amp

BonnieSituation · 10-06-2018 05:26PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Given pollster recent inability to predict Christmas on the 24th of December and keeping in mind a recent poll indicted mid 20's support. What do we make of this?

Should those supporting a UI or independent Scotland be secretly hoping for a hard Brexit?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-united-ireland-referendum-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html?amp

The Lucid Talk polls are decent. They have been consistent over a long long period.

The questions were also clear and concise.

The queen's poll from a few weeks back was the aberration and it was full of confusing "if that then this" questions which would of course deflate and dilute any pro-UI answers.

There's no doubt that Brexit has caused a surge from small-N nationalisrs who are currentlly okay with the status quo to reconsider their stance.

Likewise it has made some small-U unionists to question just how good the union is?
While they might not necessarily reckon that a UI is for them, they certainly are recognising how much Westminster gives a crap about them.

Long may it continue.

An Ciarraioch · 10-06-2018 06:41PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Given pollster recent inability to predict Christmas on the 24th of December and keeping in mind a recent poll indicted mid 20's support. What do we make of this?

Should those supporting a UI or independent Scotland be secretly hoping for a hard Brexit?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-united-ireland-referendum-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html?amp

The Lucid Talk polls are decent. They have been consistent over a long long period.

The questions were also clear and concise.

The queen's poll from a few weeks back was the aberration and it was full of confusing "if that then this" questions which would of course deflate and dilute any pro-UI answers.

There's no doubt that Brexit has caused a surge from small-N nationalisrs who are currentlly okay with the status quo to reconsider their stance.

Likewise it has made some small-U unionists to question just how good the union is?
While they might not necessarily reckon that a UI is for them, they certainly are recognising how much Westminster gives a crap about them.

Long may it continue.

Bangordub's demographic analysis is particularly useful in relation to the poll:

https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2018/06/09/on-a-knife-edge-brexit-lucid-talk-and-the-border-poll/#comments

BonnieSituation · 10-06-2018 07:01PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Bangordub's demographic analysis is particularly useful in relation to the poll:

https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2018/06/09/on-a-knife-edge-brexit-lucid-talk-and-the-border-poll/#comments

Yeah, I read that yesterday. Very good stuff.

Brexit discussion thread III

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